MAPPING AND ANALYTICAL APPLICATIONS OF GIS IN CRIME AND SECURITY ANALYSIS by Dr. Yuri Gorokhovich,...
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Transcript of MAPPING AND ANALYTICAL APPLICATIONS OF GIS IN CRIME AND SECURITY ANALYSIS by Dr. Yuri Gorokhovich,...
MAPPING AND ANALYTICAL APPLICATIONS OF GIS IN CRIME AND SECURITY ANALYSIS
by
Dr. Yuri Gorokhovich, Assistant Professor, SUNY Purchase College
Dr. Victor Goldsmith, Associate Provost for Research and Economic Development, Pace University
First NSF/NIJ Symposium on Intelligence and
Security Informatics (ISI 2003)
Tucson, AZ
June 2-3, 2003
Context of Research – Project Safe Neighborhood
Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN) is a nationwide commitment to reduce gun crime in America by networking existing local programs that target gun crime and providing those programs with additional tools necessary to be successful. The Bush Administration will seek to commit $533 million to this effort over two years, including $233.6 million already available for this year. This funding will be used to hire new federal and state prosecutors, support investigators, provide training, and develop and promote community outreach efforts.
The Purpose of the Talk:
1. Discuss various GIS mapping and analytical techniques.
2. Show their application to ATF data.
3. Demonstrate complex relationship between data variables
4. Demonstrate importance of combination of various GIS techniques to create better “hot spots”.
PSN Program Goals
The goals of this program are:
(1) to increase the capacity of PSN Task Forces to design data driven strategies that produce measurable decreases in firearm-related violent crime;
(2) to improve the long term ability of federal, state, and local partners to work together to understand, prosecute, and prevent firearm related violent crime within their jurisdictions.
NEW YORK STATE JUDICIAL DISTRICTS OF THE STUDY
EASTERN DISTRICT:
Suffolk Nassau Queens Brooklyn
SOUTHERN DISTRICT:
Westchester Bronx Manhattan Staten Island
ATF Gun Recoveries 1999 - 2003
District County Number of Gun Recoveries
Southern
Bronx 6696
Manhattan 743
Staten Island 979
Westchester 187
Eastern
Brooklyn 11330
Queens 2631
Nassau 913
Suffolk 901
Variety of Gun Dealer’s Premises per District and County
(top five):
District County Dealer’s Premise State
Number of recoveries
Southern Bronx FL
OH
CA
VA
NY
1305
1037
1010
949
881
Manhattan OH
CA
FL
CT
SC
173
161
158
118
115
Staten Island NY
FL
OH
CA
CT
231
213
171
151
132
Westchester NY
FL
VA
OH
SC
50
32
22
22
20
Variety of Gun Dealer’s Premises per District and County
(top five):
District County Dealer’s Premise State
Number of recoveries
Eastern Brooklyn FL
CA
OH
NY
MA
2076
1726
1664
1479
1274
Queens NY
FL
CA
CT
OH
501
468
348
315
308
Suffolk NY
FL
CT
CA
MA
258
169
169
137
136
Nassau FL
NY
CA
MA
OH
186
154
137
128
120
District County Gun Type Number of recoveries
Southern Bronx P
PR
S
R
PD
Z
M
DD
4088
1670
433
401
88
8
5
3
Manhattan P
PR
R
S
PD
494
173
33
31
12
Staten Island P
PR
R
S
PD
Z
483
230
177
81
7
1
Westchester P
PR
S
R
PD
M
84
56
21
17
8
1
Variety of Gun Types per District and County:
Codes:
P - pistol
PR - revolver
S - shotgun
R - rifle
PD - derringer
Z - unknown
M - machine gun
DD - destructive device
Variety of Gun Types per District and County:
District County Gun Type Number of recoveries
Eastern Brooklyn P
PR
R
S
PD
Z
M
C
DD
6521
3123
807
706
139
16
12
5
1
Queens P
PR
R
S
PD
Z
M
1414
612
301
257
41
4
2
Suffolk P
PR
R
S
PD
Z
M
C
400
210
166
104
17
2
1
1
Nassau P
PR
R
S
PD
Z
479
277
83
61
12
1
Codes:
P - pistol
PR - revolver
S - shotgun
R - rifle
PD - derringer
Z - unknown
M - machine gun
DD - destructive device
District County Recovery location
Number of recoveries
Southern Bronx Unknown
1
24
17
19
6194
322
99
46
7
Manhattan Unknown
1
24
17
12
622
43
29
23
8
Staten Island Unknown
1
24
17
16
908
28
27
4
3
Westchester Unknown
1
22
16
13
181
3
1
1
1
Variety of Gun Recovery Locations (top five) per District and County:
Code:
1 – intersection
7 – police station
12 - vehicle
13 – airport
16 - bar
17 – apartment
19 – store
22 – vacant lot
23 – business
24 - residence
District County Recovery Location
Number of recoveries
Eastern Brooklyn Unknown
1
24
17
19
10444
605
123
82
22
Queens Unknown
1
17
24
13
2352
142
46
45
21
Suffolk Unknown
24
23
22
19
824
60
7
3
2
Nassau Unknown
24
7
1
17
808
34
29
21
7
Variety of Gun Recovery Locations (top five) per District and County:
Code:
1 – intersection
7 – police station
12 - vehicle
13 – airport
16 - bar
17 – apartment
19 – store
22 – vacant lot
23 – business
24 - residence
Complexities of ATFE Database:
1. Gun dealers come from various states outside NY districts and some gun dealerships supply guns from NY
2. Most of recovery locations are not known. From available data the majority of recovery locations are associated with: intersections; residences; apartments; bars; stores; vacant lots; airports
3. There is apparent relationship with locations of existing crime patterns (hot spots), schools and other public facilities and land uses.
SPATIAL UNITS IN CRIME ANALYSIS
There are three kind of spatial units stored in ATFE database that can be used for crime mapping:
1. Geographic coordinates (point), derived from street address;
2. Zip code (polygon);
3. Administrative unit i.e. borough, town, state (polygon);
All spatial units correspond to one of the following topological sequence:
Point – Line – Polygon
In this sequence, a point represents lowest level of topology and serves as an elementary building block for all other topological types (i.e. lines and polygons)
SPATIAL UNITS IN CRIME ANALYSIS
ACCURACY:
The most accurate unit is geographic coordinate pair. It allows “pinpoint” crime spot and can be used in variety of mapping techniques, including density mapping and proximity analysis among others.
Zip code and administrative boundaries are relatively large areas and have high spatial uncertainty within their boundaries.
CONTEXT:
Administrative boundaries (including boroughs, villages, townships) have their own regulations on traffic, parking, general security and “land uses”. These factors can affect crime and gun possession. From this point of view these administrative boundaries can be used as spatial units for analysis. While spatial techniques such as density mapping or proximity analysis are difficult to implement with these units, they would be suitable for the multivariate or descriptive statistics.
SPATIAL UNITS IN CRIME ANALYSIS
CONCLUSION:
Geographic locations (i.e. points) of recovery data are more useful for the analysis of crime because they represent lowest level of topology in spatial data, provide basis for other topologic types and can be analyzed with any GIS technique.
Address Matching and Geocoding Technique Using Census TIGER Street Data
Fulton St
Address Matching and Geocoding (Interpolation Using TIGER Data)
Fulton StX1, Y1
X2, Y2
Length
From address right
= 135
To address right
= 167150 Fulton St
Coordinate Pair: Longitude Latitude
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES: THEMATIC MAPS
NOT REPRESENTATIVE, HIGH SPATIAL UNCERTAINTY
Recovery of guns in Staten Island and Brooklyn, 1999 - 2003
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Red dots are for 23,315 recoveries for the time period
CRIME MAPPING: USING POINT DATA ATTRIBUTES
Recovery of guns in Staten Island and Brooklyn, 1999 - 2003
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Red dots indicate locations with > 5 recoveries
CRIME MAPPING: USING POINT DATA ATTRIBUTES
Recovery of guns in Staten Island and Brooklyn, 1999 - 2003
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Red dots indicate locations with > 20 recoveries
CRIME MAPPING: USING POINT DATA ATTRIBUTES
Recovery of guns in Staten Island and Brooklyn, 1999 - 2003
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Red dots indicate locations with > 50 recoveries
CRIME MAPPING: USING POINT DATA ATTRIBUTES
Recovery of guns in Bronx, 1999 - 2003
Typical Point Data Map
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : Unique Symbol
# 1 - 3# 4 - 5# 6 - 8
Legend:
Number of dealers per
recovery location:
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : Graduated Symbol & Color Codes
Gun Recoveries: Number of gun dealers associated with the recovery location
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Legend:
Number of gun types per
recovery location:
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : Graduated Symbol & Color Codes
Gun Recoveries: Number of gun types associated with the recovery location
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
# 1 - 2 # 3 - 4# 5 - 6
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : Proximity of Recovery Locations
Red segments represent < 0.5 miles proximity between recovery locations
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Gun “neighborhoods”
Bronx
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : Contour Line Densities
Denser Pattern of Contour Lines Corresponds to the Higher Level of Recoveries
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Advantage of Contour Line Densities:They show orientation of the recovery“field” i.e. changes as a result of police intervention strategies.
Recovery of guns in Staten Island and Brooklyn, 1999 - 2003
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Number of recoveries per sq. mile
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES :
“HOT SPOTS” – TRADITIONAL DENSITY ANALYSIS
Density:0 - 2 0 02 0 0 - 4 0 04 0 0 - 6 0 06 0 0 - 8 0 08 0 0 - 1 0 0 01 0 0 0 - 1 2 0 01 2 0 0 - 1 4 0 0> 1 4 0 0
CRIME MAPPING TECHNIQUES : 3D Visualization
Data Source: ATFE, West Virginia
Points are recovery locations.
Intensity of color shows rate of recovery.
CRIME ANALYSIS: USE OF DEMOGRAPHIC SPATIAL DATA
Census Tracts
Census tracts allow the extraction of demographic data and to overlay demographics with crime data. The resultant mapping and analysis will lack spatial pattern and precision as previously shown.
Census Blocks
CRIME ANALYSIS: USE OF DEMOGRAPHIC SPATIAL DATA
Census Blocks allow to extract demographic data and overlay them with crime data. Their spatial pattern and precision are finer than census tracts.
1. Density mapping, proximity and demographic analysis are most important categories of scientific tools for research on crime. Geographic coordinates provide basis for these analyses. Therefore their collection is very important. However, for locating crime and report preparation street addresses are traditionally used by police and other municipal agencies. GIS geocoding technique links street addresses and geographic locations if street data contain correct street address and zip code/city/borough.
2. Available GIS analytical and mapping techniques allow to create new kind of “hot spots”, based on combination of multiple factors from ATFE database, such as: frequency of gun recoveries, frequency of recovery dates and proximity between recovery locations. Traditional “hot spot” technique is based primarily on recovery frequencies and uses an arbitrary “radius” for the kernel smoothing technique.
3. Design of GPS coupled with GIS-based street map would allow automatic collection of crime data in the field in both formats: street address and geographic location. This would save time for police officer preparing report, reduce cost of initial data preparation for analysis and allow use of data in real-time response measure if needed.
CONCLUSIONS: