Many Faults, Many Rupture Scenarios for So. NV
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Transcript of Many Faults, Many Rupture Scenarios for So. NV
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Many Faults, Many Rupture Scenarios for So. NV
J. Louie, EGGE 3/25/2011
Japan and Christchurch Lesson: Don’t Ignore Worst Case!
dePolo, 2008, NBMG Map 167
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Frenchman Mtn. Fault M6.7 ShakeZoning
NSZ Peak Horiz.Ground Velocity Map
NSZ ShakingAnimation at 0.5 Hz
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Effect of Parcel Map Over IBC Defaults- FMF M6.7
3D: ShakeZoning1D: IBC and ShakeMap
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Pushing the Predictions Through HAZUS
• $8.6 Billion Loss• 287-610
Casualties
ShakeZoning ShakeMap
• $4.8 Billion Loss• 22-58
Casualties
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Combine the Scenarios Probabilistically
λ = annual frequency of exceeding ground motion u0
rate(M, sourcej) = annual rate of occurrence for an earthquake with magnitude M at source location j
P = probability of ground motions u ≥ u0 at site i, if an earthquake occurs at source location j with magnitude M
After Frankel et al., USGS OFR 2007–1175
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With Many Scenarios, Define Probabilistic Hazard
Recurrence Intervals: Black Hills- 15 ka Frenchman Mtn.- 45 ka
e.g., PGV at UNLV: ~20 cm/s from BHF ~15 cm/s from FMF
Combine rates per annum: >15 cm/s at 0.0001 p.a. >20 cm/s at 0.00007 p.a.
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Conclusions Basin trapping leads to worst-case shaking. 10,721 Parcel Map measurements completed in
3 years for IBC compliance in Clark County. NSZ validated at 0.1-Hz for Las Vegas region
with 1992 LSM recordings. The Parcel Map has surprisingly large effects on
ground motions predicted from physics. Nevada ShakeZoning predicts twice the damage
and five times the casualties as ShakeMap, for the Las Vegas worst case.