Manish Jaiswal

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    STABILITY OF INDIAN DERIVATIVE MARKET IN RECESSION

    -A MYTH OR REALITY?

    Abstract: Derivatives are powerful risk management tools. The advent of modern day derivative

    contracts is attributed to the need for farmers to protect themselves from any decline in the price

    of their crops due to delayed monsoon or overproduction. This paper analyses the history of

    world derivative and evolution of Indian derivative market and its impact and contribution to the

    economic development and stability as a whole.

    The current study is also trying to find out the similarities and dissimilarities between the Indian

    derivative market and the derivative market of the developed countries. It also shows how

    different is Indian derivative market and its need .In last ten years the rate of growth of Indian

    derivative market is higher than many other countries. The possible trends of derivative market

    in near future and possible changes that could be incorporated is also being studied.

    It is a topic of research why during recession of 2008 Indian market was somewhat stable

    compared to the market of major developed countries. The study involves the in-depth analysis

    on the relation- ship between risk and return involved with the use of derivatives (Malik,2008).

    Is it because the Indian derivative market is at nascent stage or the SEBI laws help in less

    fluctuation of this derivative market?

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    1. ESSENCE AND HISTORY OF DERIVATIVE MARKET

    Derivative products initially emerged, as hedging devices against fluctuations in commodity

    prices. The origin of derivatives can be traced back to the need of farmers to protect themselves

    against fluctuations in the price of crop. From the time it was sown to the time it was ready for

    harvest, farmers would face price uncertainty.

    Forward delivery contracts that states what is to be delivered for a fixed price at a specified place

    on a specified date, existed in ancient Greece and Rome. Roman emperors entered forward

    contracts to provide the masses with their supply of Egyptian grain. These contracts were also

    undertaken between farmers and merchants to eliminate risk arising out of uncertain future prices

    of grains. Thus, forward contracts have existed for centuries for hedging price risk. The first

    organized commodity exchange came into existence in the early 1700s in Japan. The first

    formal commodities exchange, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), was formed in 1848 in the

    US to deal with the problem of credit risk and to provide centralized location to negotiate

    forward contracts. From forward trading in commodities emerged the commodity futures.

    The first type of futures contract was called to arrive at. Trading in futures began on the CBOT

    in the 1860s. In 1865, CBOT listed the first exchange traded derivatives contract, known as

    the futures contracts. Futures trading grew out of the need for hedging the price risk involved in

    many commercial operations. The first financial futures to emerge were the currency in 1972 in

    the US. The first foreign currency futures were traded on May 16, 1972, on International

    Monetary Market (IMM). Currency futures were followed soon by interest rate futures. Interest

    rate futures contracts were traded for the first time on the CBOT on October 20, 1975. Stock

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    index futures and options emerged in 1982. The first stock index futures contracts were traded on

    Kansas City Board of Trade on February 24, 1982.

    The first call and put options were invented by an American financier, Russell Sage, in 1872.

    These options were traded over the counter. Agricultural commodities options were traded in the

    nineteenth century in England and the US. Options on shares were available in the US on the

    over the counter (OTC) market only until 1973 without much knowledge of valuation. A group

    of firms known as Put and Call brokers and Dealers Association was set up in early 1900s to

    provide a mechanism for bringing buyers and sellers together. On April 26, 1973, the Chicago

    Board options Exchange (CBOE) was set up at CBOT for the purpose of trading stock options. It

    was in 1973 again that black, Merton, and Scholes invented the famous Black-Scholes Option

    Formula. This model helped in assessing the fair price of an option which led to an increased

    interest in trading of options. With the options markets becoming increasingly popular, the

    American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) began trading

    in options in 1975. The market for futures and options grew at a rapid pace in the eighties and

    nineties. The collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed parties and the introduction of

    floating rates for currencies in the international financial markets paved the way for development

    of a number of financial derivatives which served as effective risk management tools to cope

    with market uncertainties. The CBOE is the largest exchange for trading stock options. The

    CBOE trades options on the S&P 100 and the S&P 500 stock indices. The most traded stock

    indices include S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq 100, and the Nikkei

    225. The US indices and the Nikkei 225 trade almost round the clock.

    Today, derivatives have become part and parcel of the day-to-day life for ordinary people in

    major parts of the world. In the past two decades, there is spectacular growth of the derivatives

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    products in worldwide financial market. In 1996, the notional value of all derivatives traded in

    domestic and international markets were approximately US$ 20 trillion (Jalilvand and Switzer,

    2000).While this is true for many countries; there are still apprehensions about the introduction

    of derivatives. In recent years, the market for financial derivatives has grown tremendously both

    in terms of variety of instruments available, their complexity and also turnover.

    With over 25 million shareholders, India has the third largest investor base in the world after

    USA and Japan. The Indian capital market is significant in terms of the degree of development,

    volume of trading, transparency and its tremendous growth potential.

    Over 7500 companies are listed on the Indian stock exchanges more than the number of

    companies listed in developed markets of Japan, UK, USA etc.

    2. LITERATURE REVIEW

    Recent surveys provide useful information on risk management practices and policies of U.S>,

    Canadian and European corporations. Bondar, Hayt, Marston, and Smithson(1995), Downie,

    McMillan, and Nosal (1995) and Bodnar, Hayt and Marston (1996) examined the use of

    Derivatives by U.S. and Canadian non-financial firms. A clear finding of these surveys is that

    larger companies make greater use of derivatives than smaller ones. Dolde (1993) conducted a

    survey of Fortune 500 companies. He also documents that respondents take speculative positions

    on their derivatives transactions.

    This paper provides detailed information on derivatives market in India and its stable structure. It

    also focus on the investment strategy on Indian investors in the time of recession.

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    3. GROWTH AND STRUCTURE OF DERIVATIVE MARKET IN INDIA

    The first step towards introduction of derivatives trading in India was with Securities Laws

    (Amendment) Ordinance, 1995, which withdrew the prohibition on options in securities. The

    market for derivatives, however, did not take off, as there was no regulatory framework to

    govern trading of derivatives. SEBI set up a 24member committee under the Chairmanship of

    Dr.L.C.Gupta on November 18, 1996 to develop appropriate regulatory framework for

    derivatives trading in India. The committee submitted its report on March 17, 1998 prescribing

    necessary preconditions for introduction of derivatives trading in India. The committee

    recommended that derivatives should be declared as securities so that regulatory framework

    applicable to trading of securities could also govern trading of securities. SEBI also set up a

    group in June 1998 under the Chairmanship of Prof.J.R.Varma, to recommend measures for risk

    containment in derivatives market in India. The report, which was submitted in October 1998,

    worked out the operational details of margining system, methodology for charging initial

    margins, broker net worth, deposit requirement and realtime monitoring requirements.

    The Securities Contract Regulation Act (SCRA) was amended in December 1999 to include

    derivatives within the scope of securities and the regulatory framework were developed for

    governing derivatives trading.

    The Forwards Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952, regulates the forward/futures contracts in

    commodities all over India. As per this the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) continues to

    have jurisdiction over commodity futures contracts. However when derivatives trading in

    securities was introduced in 2001, the term security in the Securities Contracts (Regulation)

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    Act, 1956 (SCRA), was amended to include derivative contracts in securities. Consequently,

    regulation of derivatives came under the purview of Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI).

    We thus have separate regulatory authorities for securities and commodity derivative markets.

    Derivatives are securities under the SCRA and hence the trading of derivatives is governed by

    the regulatory framework under the SCRA. The act also made it clear that derivatives shall be

    legal and valid only if such contracts are traded on a recognized stock exchange, thus there is no

    OTC derivatives. The government also rescinded the three decade old notification, which

    prohibited forward trading in securities in March 2000. Derivatives trading commenced in India

    in June 2000 after SEBI granted the final approval to this effect in May 2001. SEBI permitted the

    derivative segments of two stock exchanges NSE and BSE, and their clearing house/corporation

    to commence trading and settlement in approved derivatives contracts. To begin with, SEBI

    approved trading in index futures contracts based on S&P CNX Nifty and BSE30 (Sensex)

    index. This was followed by approval for trading in options based on these two indexes and

    options on individual securities.

    The Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 defines derivative to include- A security

    derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or unsecured, risk instrument or

    contract differences or any other form of security.

    Chronological advancement of Derivative market in India:

    1991 Liberalisation process initiated

    14 December 1995 NSE asked SEBI for permission to trade index futures.

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    18 November 1996 SEBI setup L.C.Gupta Committee to draft a policy

    framework for index futures

    11 May 1998 L.C.Gupta Committee submitted report

    7 July 1999 RBI gave permission for OTC forward rate agreements

    (FRAs) and interest rate swaps.

    24 May 2000 SIMEX chose Nifty for trading futures and options on an

    Indian index.

    25 May 2000 SEBI gave permission to NSE and BSE to do index

    futures trading

    9 June 2000 Trading of BSE Sensex futures commenced at BSE.

    12 June 2000 Trading of Nifty futures commenced at NSE.

    25 September

    2 June 2001 Individual Stock Options & Derivatives

    The Total Turnover of Indian Financial Markets crossed US$ 2256 billion in 2006 with an

    increase of 82% from US $ 1237 billion in 2004 in a short span of 2 years only. Turnover in the

    Spot and Derivatives segment both in NSE & BSE was higher by 45% into 2006 as compared to

    2005. With daily average volume of US $ 9.4 billion, the Sensex has posted excellent returns in

    the recent years. Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) held stock assets valued close to Rs 2

    trillion as of November 08. There were 1,113 registered FIIs as of October '07. Currently the

    market cap of the Sensex as on July 4th, 2009 was Rs 48.4 lakh Crore with a P/E of more than

    20.

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    Following figure shows the structure of derivative market in India

    Derivatives Market

    Exchange Traded Derivative Over the Counter Derivative

    National Stock Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange National Commodity

    Derivative Exchange

    Index Future Index Option Stock Future Stock Option

    The first trade inderivative was the culmination of legislative and legal effort which had begun

    as early as 1995. Thus the entire system of existing securities regulations including anti-fraud

    and various disclosure obligations have become part of regulations of derivative in India. This is

    a sharp contrast to the introduction of futures of individual stocks in USA.

    The following figures shows the Indian trading system with Exchange at the top ,governed by

    three governing bodies i.e. Governing council, Governing board, Clearing council. It is further

    assisted by Clearing House, Clearing Bank, Clearing Member, Trading Member, and the client.

    There is also Trade Guarantee Fund and Investor Protection Fund as a part of risk reduction

    scheme.

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    Fig : An overview of regulation of financial derivatives in India.

    (Source: S.L. Gupta Finanacial Derivative,2006 )

    4. DATA

    The data that is analyzed is taken from the official website of NSE India and SEBI. It is year

    wise data of the number of contracts as well as the turnover of Future and Option trading in

    terms of Index and individual stocks.It also analyse the growth of total transaction and total

    turnover in the derivative market since its inception in India. During July-September 2008-09,

    the turnover at BSE was Rs.1,510 crore, which was insignifi- cant as compared to that of NSE at

    Rs. 3,315,491 crore. Moreover NSE constitutes the major part of turnover than BSE . Therefore

    we will analyse the NSE derivative market trend assuming that the BSE have followed more or

    The Stock Exchange

    Governing Board

    Trading Member

    Clearing Member

    Clearing BankClearing House

    Clearing CouncilGoverning Council

    Trade Guarantee Fund

    ClientInvestor Protection Fund

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    less the same trend. In the data analysed it is to be noted that during 2000-01 there was only

    Index Future trading available and the data of 2009-10 is not yet completed .

    5. ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS GROWTH DERIVATIVE MARKET IN INDIA

    (a)FutureIndex Future Stock Future

    Year No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. Cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. Cr.)

    2009-10 99684121 2017773.95 72285743 2691308.89

    2008-09 210428103 3570111.40 221577980 3479642.12

    2007-08 156598579 3820667.27 203587952 7548563.23

    2006-07 81487424 2539574 104955401 3830967

    2005-06 58537886 1513755 80905493 2791697

    2004-05 21635449 772147 47043066 1305939

    2003-04 17191668 554446 32368842 554446

    2002-03 2003-04 43952 10676843 286533

    2001-02 1025588 21483 1957856 51515

    2000-01 90580 2365 - -

    Source www.nse-india.com

    From the data it is clear that there is high business growth in the derivative segment in India. In

    the year 2000-01, the number of contracts in Index Future was 90580 where as a significant

    increase to 210428103 is observed in the year 2008-09 which is nearly 35% more than 2007-08.

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    Moreover in the year 2001-02 the turnover of index future was 21483 where as a huge increase

    of 3570111.40in the year 2008-09 are observed.

    Moreover there were no stock futures available in the year 2000-01. There was a steady increase

    in the turnover of stock future with 51515cr. in the year 2001-02. Again in the year there was a

    huge increase to 7548563.23cr.of turnover in the year 2007-08 with a considerable decline of

    3479642.12 in the year 2008-09.So the Stock future was the major upset during the time of

    recession proving that stock future are more volatile and investor takes less risk during recession.

    (b) OptionIndex Option Stock Option

    Year No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. Cr.) No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. Cr.)

    2009-10 157963794 3399025.83 5969176 230019.56

    2008-09 212088444 3731501.84 13295970 229226.81

    2007-08 55366038 1362110.88 9460631 359136.55

    2006-07 25157438 791906 5283310 193795

    2005-06 12935116 338469 5240776 180253

    2004-05 3293558 121943 5045112 168836

    2003-04 1732414 52816 5583071 217207

    2002-03 442241 9246 3523062 100131

    2001-02 175900 3765 1037529 25163

    Source www.nse-india.com

    There was only 1,75,900 transactions in the year 2001-2002. In the year 2007-2008 there was a

    huge increase in the index option contracts to 5,53,66,038 and in the recession time of 2008-09 it

    increased nearly four time to 21,20,88,444. In terms of turnover it slowly started increasing in

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    the year 2000-2001 to 3765cr and in the year 2007-2008 there was a huge increase of

    1362110.088 and shot up in 2008-09 to 3731501.84cr showing increase of about three times.

    So the major target for investment during the recession was Index Option because of less risk

    or a fixed risk of premium amount only. Therefore Index Option helped a lot of investment

    inflow.

    Moreover the stock option turnover in the year 2000-2001 was nil. There was a slow increase of

    25163 in the year 2001-2002. But a phenomenal increase of 359136.55 in the year 2007-2008,

    and a decline of 229226.81 in the year 2008-2009.Again showing that during downturn of

    market investor prefer Index rather than the individual stock as the investment in index

    distribute the risk in the different sectors of market making it more stable.

    (c)TotalYear No. of contracts Turnover (Rs. Cr.) Avg.daily turnover

    2009-10 335902834 8338128.14 67789.66

    2008-09 657390497 11010482.20 45390.63

    2007-08 425013200 13090477.75 52153.30

    2006-07 216883573 7356242 29543

    2005-06 157619271 4824174 19220

    2004-05 77017185 2546982 10167

    2003-04 56886776 2130610 8388

    2002-03 16768909 439862 1752

    2001-02 4196873 101926 410

    2000-01 90580 2365 11

    Source www.nse-india.com

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    From the data ,the overall trading contracts in the year 2000-2001 was 90580 and huge increase

    of 657390497in the year 2008-2009. and the overall trading turnover in the year 2000-2001 was

    as low as 2365 but a predominant increase of11010482.20observed inthe year 2008-2009.

    Derivative market is growing very fast in the Indian Economy. The turnover of this Market is

    increasing year by year in the Indias largest stock exchange NSE. In the case of index future

    there is a phenomenal increase in the number of contracts. But the turnover has declined

    considerably. In the case of stock future there was a slow increase observed in the number of

    contracts whereas a decline was also observed in its turnover. In the case of index option there

    was a huge increase observed both in the number of contracts and turnover. Earlier only

    Institutional investors were attracted towards Index based derivatives but in the recession time

    the common investors also realized the power and stability of index over the stocks.

    Table : List of the most actively traded futures and options contracts worldwide ranked by

    number of contracts traded :-

    Rank Contracts 2008 2007 %change

    1 Kospi 200 Options,KRX 2,766,474,404 2,709,844,077 2.10

    2 E-mini S&P 500 Futures, CME 633,889,466 415,348,228 52.60

    3 DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Futures,Eurex 432,298,342 327,034,149 32.20

    4 DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Options,Eurex 400,931,635 251,438,870 59.50

    5 SPDR S&P 500 ETF Options 321,454,795 141,614,736 127.00

    6 Powershres QQQ ETF Options 221,801,005 185,807535 19.40

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    7 S&P CNX Nifty Futures, NSE India 202,390,223 138,794,235 45.80

    8 S&P 500 Options, CBOE 179,019,155 158,019,723 13.30

    9 iShares Russell 2000 ETF Options 151,900,495 154,059,054 -1.40

    10 S&P CNX Nifty Options, NSE India 150,916,778 52,707,150 186.30

    Source www.nse-india.com

    6. RECESSION- 2008

    The Global recession of 2008 was marked by Lehman Brothers filing bankrupt on 15 th

    September 08 .followed by AIG seeking bailout and distress sale of Merrill Lynch.

    The possible reason for fallout are thatsmall banks lent money to borrowers with dubious record

    (mostly housing loan) banks repackaged these loans as tradable securities (derivative) and sold to

    Lehman & Merrill Lynch . Derivatives created on derivatives in an unlimited array of

    speculative financial offerings.When borrowers defaulted, market for such securities collapsed

    Lehman also directly invested in realties that also collapsed.Worried about angry voters in an

    election year Govt. refused to use public fund to absorb part of Lehmans losses.Lehman filed

    for bankruptcy - the biggest bankruptcy filing with a debt of $630 billion.

    Warren Buffet called Derivative as Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction, but in India strong

    rules and regulations made for investment in derivative helped it to stand strong even in this

    storm of Global Recession. The extent of impact has been restricted due to several reasons such

    as- Indian financial sector particularly our banks have no direct exposure to tainted assets and its

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    off-balance sheet activities have been limited. The credit derivatives market is in an embryonic

    stage and there are restrictions on investments by residents in such products issued abroad.

    Indias growth process has been largely domestic demand driven and its reliance on foreign

    savings has remained around 1.5 per cent in recent period. Indias comfortable foreign exchange

    reserves provide confidence in our ability to manage our balance of payments not withstanding

    lower export demand and dampened capital flows. Rural demand continues to be robust due to

    mandated agricultural lending and social safety-net programs. Indias merchandise exports are

    around 15 per cent of GDP, which is relatively modest.

    During this recession as well Indian derivative market was showing potential. This is clear with

    the following data and analysis made by SEBI during JULY-SEPTEMBER 2008-09 quarter.

    Table 1: Status report of the developments in the derivative market at the time of 08recession

    Product No of contracts

    (lakh)

    Turnover

    (Rs. 000 cr.)

    No of contracts

    (lakh)

    Turnover

    (Rs. 000cr.)

    APRIL-JUNE 2008-09 JULY-SEPTEMBER2008-09

    Volume and Turnover

    Index Future 415.7 935.6 542.6 1,077.5

    Index Option 240.1 571.3 521.2 1,130.9

    Stock Future 514.5 1,093.1 599.0 1,039.3

    Stock Option 25.5 58.3 35.9 69.1

    Total 1,195.8 2,658.4 1,698.7 3,317.0

    (Source: SEBI)

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    From the above table major observations are that the number of contracts increased by 42.06%

    to 1,698.7 lakh while turnover increased by 24.77% to Rs. 3,317 thousand crore in July-

    September 2008-09 over April-June 2008-09. Futures (Index Future + Stock Future) constituted

    67.20% of the total number of contracts traded in the F&O Segment. Stock Future and Index

    Future accounted for 35.26% and 31.94% respectively. Options constituted 32.80% of the total

    volume of which Index Option constituted 30.68%.

    Table 2: Currency Future Segment and Open Interest.

    Name of the Exchange NSE BSE MCX-SX

    Name of the Exchange 2,275,261 161,502 1,119,968

    Turnover (Rs. cr) 11,141.93 765.13 5,521.20

    Open Interest (No. of Contracts) 170,202 10,546 60,055

    Open Interest (Turnover, Rs. cr.) 851.27 52.83 299.94

    (Source : SEBI)

    During the month of October 2008, at NSE 2,275,261 contracts, at BSE 161,502 contracts and at

    MCX-SX 1,119,968 contracts were traded in the currency futures segment .Total turnover during

    October 2008, at NSE was Rs. 11,142 crore at BSE Rs.765 crore and at MCX-SX was Rs.5,521

    crore, in the currency futures segment. Open interest at the end of October 2008, in terms of

    number of contracts was 170,202 for NSE, 10,546 for BSE and 60,055 for MCX-SX.

    The number of contracts and open interest in the derivatives market has increased even when the

    underlying market is witnessing a downward trend. This indicates that there are sufficient long

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    position holders who anticipate value proposition in a falling market. Falling or rising markets on

    the back of low volumes may be a cause of concern from the point of market integrity. However,

    as observed from the data, under the present scenario the fall in the market has been

    accompanied by high volumes.

    In Index Option, there is a sharp increase in turnover (97.95%) and volume (117.08%) during

    July-September 2008-09 over April-June 2008-09. Possible reasons for increase in options

    trading activity can be attributed to increase in volatility. Market observers believe that

    conditions across markets and asset classes have become more volatile and uncertain in the

    recent past. Generally in such conditions, many people believe that options act as "insurance"

    against adverse price movements while offering the flexibility to benefit from possible favorable

    price movements at the same time. Another reason which can be attributed to the increase in

    activity is the new directive as per the Budget 2008- 09 which states that STT (Securities

    Transaction Tax) would now be levied on the Option premium instead of the strike price.

    In Index Future, both turnover (15.17%) and volume (30.53%) have increased during July-

    September 2008-09 as compared to April-June 2008-09. There is a decrease in turnover (4.92%)

    in Single Stock Futures during July- September 2008-09 as compared to April-June 2008-09.

    (Source: www.sebi.gov.in)

    7. RECOMMENDATIONS & SCOPE FOR FUTURE RESEARCH

    After study it is clear that Derivative influence our Indian Economy to much extent. So, SEBI

    should take necessary steps for improvement in Derivative Market so that more investors can

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    products has seen more of changes in micro regulations like provide margin money to start

    investment. So it can be concluded that financial derivative market in India is not only stable

    compared to other markets across globe but also it is at the stage of growth and because of the

    regulations made by Indian laws on this market based on the recommendations made by different

    committees there is a constant watch over the investment. India managed to progress as far as not

    just technology but also regulations. But as we all know from economical demand that things

    what goes up, that will come down with time , this may be the beginning so the market is going

    up but to maintain at that level regular measures should be taken or else it may be also seen a

    downfall after reaching the peak as what happened to Global market . In May 2008, German

    leaders have planned to propose a worldwide ban on oil trading by speculators, blaming the 2008

    oil price rises on manipulation by hedge fund. Therefore Indian law should also regularly check

    the measures to be taken for controlling speculation.

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    9. REFERENCES

    Gupta,S. L.(2006). Financial Derivative. New Delhi: Prentice- Hall of India Pvt. Ltd.

    Khatua, S. (2008), Application of Derivatives for Indian Corporate Decisions, Conference

    Preeceedings Papers, FEMI 2008, IIT KGP , December 29-31 2008.

    Kaur, P. (2000), Financial Derivatives: Potential of Derivative market in India and emerging

    derivatives market structure in India, Finance : 33-56.

    Jalilvand, A., Switzer, J. and Tang, C. (2000), A Global Perspective on the Use of Derivatives

    for Corporate Risk Management Decisions,Managerial Finance, 26 (3): 29-38.

    Reddy, Y. V., & Sebastin A. (2008), Interaction Between Equity and Derivatives Markets in

    India: An Entropy Approach, The Icfai Journal of Derivatives Markets, 5(1): 18-32

    Bodla, B.S. and Jindal, K. (2008). Equity Derivatives in India: Growth Pattern and Trading

    Volume Effects, The Icfai Journal of Derivative Markets, 5 (1): 62-82.

    Hull, J.C. (2008). Options,Futures and Other Derivatives. New Delhi: PHI Learning Pvt. Ltd.

    http://www.sebi.gov.in/boardmeetings/derivatives.pdf

    http://www.nse-india.com/content/fo/fo_businessgrowth.htm

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