MANHATTAN BROOKLYN New Development 2,586 1,422 2016hpdmny.com/pdf/HPDM_Year_End_Report_2016.pdf ·...
Transcript of MANHATTAN BROOKLYN New Development 2,586 1,422 2016hpdmny.com/pdf/HPDM_Year_End_Report_2016.pdf ·...
New Development Year-End Report
2016*Available inventory includes all units currently on the market as well as those not yet released.
BROOKLYNMANHATTAN
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$1,338AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CLOSED
$2,185
AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
855AVAILABLE INVENTORY (UNITS)*
5,440
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
$1,362
$1,422
$2,233
$2,586
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. CONTRACT SIGNED
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT. ACTIVE
28% YoY 23% YoY
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
Summary Points
2016 saw increased strength
in mid-market price points. In
Manhattan the total percentage of
new development deals entering
contract from $1M to $3M rose to
45.4% in 2016, up from 37.4% at
year-end 2015. In Brooklyn the total
percentage of new development
deals entering contract priced at or
below $3M rose to 93% in 2016, up
from 84.6% at year-end 2015.
The total number of available new development units rose 28% year-over-year
in Manhattan to approximately 5,440, up from 4,250 at year-end 2015, still well
below a high of nearly 9,200 units in 2006. This increase includes the recent
launch of One Manhattan Square in the Lower East Side with over 800 units. In
Brooklyn, available units increased 23% year-over-year to approximately 850, up
from nearly 700 at year-end 2015. Manhattan inventory represents approximately
2.5 years of supply at current absorption rates, while Brooklyn inventory
represents approximately 1.5 years of supply.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 2
MEDIAN PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,303 $1,406
Contract Signed $2,066 $1,337
Closed $2,021 $1,329
AVERAGE PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Active $2,586 $1,422
Contract Signed $2,233 $1,362
Closed $2,185 $1,338
MEDIAN PRICE
Active $4,287,500 $1,754,250
Contract Signed $2,692,495 $1,322,500
Closed $2,997,000 $1,404,000
AVERAGE PRICE
Active $6,875,680 $2,228,712
Contract Signed $4,218,188 $1,551,287
Closed $4,436,547 $2,035,264
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
Total 10,287 2,187
Units Available 5,440 855
% Closed or Contract Signed
47.1% 60.9%
Median Price for Closed new
development units in Manhattan
rose 50% year-over-year while
Brooklyn rose 49%. In Manhattan,
Median price rose to $2.9M from
$1.9M in 2015. In Brooklyn, Median
price rose to $1.4M from $941K in
2015. This dramatic year-over-year
increase reflects delivery of higher
price-point units that went into
contract 12 – 18 months ago.
Pricing for Manhattan new development
units entering into contract in 2016 fell
1.9% year-over-year to $2,223 PSF from
$2,268 in 2015. This continues to reflect
strength in the mid-market price points
of $1M - $4M and reduced absorption
in the super-luxury market above $10M.
Avg. PPSF for closed new development
units rose 14.5% year-over-year to
$2,185, due primarily to delivery of units
at 432 Park Avenue, The Greenwich
Lane, and 150 Charles Street.
In Brooklyn, new development
entering into contract averaged
$1,362 PSF, up 2.0% year-over-
year from 2015, boosted by signed
contracts at Pierhouse, The Hendrik,
and 190 South 1st Street. Closed
new development deals in Brooklyn
increased to an average of $1,338
PSF, up 14.7% from 2015 due largely
to closings at 1 John Street, 210
Pacific Street, 280 Metropolitan
Avenue, and Pierhouse.
50%
2.5 YEARS OF SUPPLY
1.9% $1,362 PSF
$1M-$3M
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 3
Introduction HPDM is pleased to present our Year-
End New Development Report for
2016. This report focuses exclusively
on the NYC new development
condominium market, and aims
to be the only report of its kind
presenting a comprehensive picture
of new development activity. New
development is unique from the overall
real estate market in that closings
often do not occur for 12 to 18 months
after a buyer enters into contract.
Therefore, to fully understand this
market it is critical to track active
listings, listings in contract, closed
listings, as well as total inventory.
This report analyzes 2016 as a whole
and is also a snapshot of current new
development market conditions.
In Manhattan, pricing for new
development units entering into
contract in 2016 fell 1.9% year-over-
year to $2,223 PSF from $2,268 in
2015. This reflects continued strength
in the mid-market price points of $1M
- $4M and reduced absorption in the
super-luxury market above $10M. Avg.
PPSF for closed new development
units rose 14.5% year-over-year to
$2,185, due primarily to continued
delivery of units at 432 Park Avenue,
The Greenwich Lane, and 150 Charles
Street. In Brooklyn, new development
entering into contract averaged $1,362
PSF, up 2.0% year-over-year from
2015, boosted by signed contracts at
Pierhouse, The Hendrik, and 190 South
1st Street. Closed new development
deals in Brooklyn increased to an
average of $1,338 PSF, up 14.7%
from 2015 due largely to closings at
1 John Street, 210 Pacific Street, 280
Metropolitan Avenue, and Pierhouse.
METHODOLOGY:
§ All data is provided by proprietary
Halstead Property Development
Marketing research.
§ This report tracks new development
projects only, defined as those new
to the market and currently selling
sponsor units. Buildings that have
fully sold out of sponsor units are
not included, even though they may
have recently been built. Resale data
is not included in this report.
§ All listings were compiled as of
12/12/16.
§§ Total§Inventory is defined as all units
within new development projects
that are currently listed as Active,
Contract Signed, or Closed, as well
as those units not yet released
to the market. Available§Units is
defined as new development units
that are currently listed as Active
as well as those not yet released
to the market. These numbers
include units released prior to 2016,
provided they are in a project that
has not sold out all sponsor units.
By including currently unreleased
units that are not yet listed as
Active, this report provides a unique
and comprehensive analysis of the
current new development market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
MARKET OVERVIEW ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5
MANHATTAN NEIGHBORHOOD INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7
ANALYSIS BY UNIT TYPE ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8
PRICE POINT ANALYSIS ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
TOTAL INVENTORY ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11
FURTHER INSIGHT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
CONTACT ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
OOSTENtheoosten.com
HPDM 2016 Sales• OVER 260 UNITS SOLD IN 23
PROJECTS TOTALING NEARLY $500M
• HPDM EXCLUSIVE PROJECTS ACCOUNTED FOR
38% OF ALL NEW DEVELOPMENT CONTRACTS
SIGNED IN BROOKLYN DURING 2016
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 5
Market OverviewDowntown saw the most development activity in Manhattan in 2016 with 1,166 units either entering into contract or closing.
Next to Billionaire’s Row, Midtown East shows the highest Avg. Active Price per Sq. Ft. at $2,819, with Downtown only slightly
lower at $2,715 per Sq. Ft. The highest Avg. Price per Sq. Ft. for Contract Signed deals in 2016 occurred Downtown, with an
average of $2,539 PSF, essentially flat year-over-year after averaging $2,545 PSF in 2015.
CONTRACT SIGNED AND CLOSED
GROUND-UP VS. CONVERSIONS — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg
NUMBER OF UNITS
GROUND UP CONVERSIONS NUMBER OF UNITS
$1,2
40
$2,
232
$2,
158
$6
,08
5
$2,
08
3
$2,
523
$1,3
45$
96
5
93 185
278
189
16
258
1,166
503
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW* MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
Ground-Up vs. Conversions - Avg. Price per Sq. Ft.
$1,9
86
$2,
414
$1,7
26
$1,7
31
$2,
378
$1,4
25
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$1,7
89
$2,
019
$2,
09
1
$5,
386
$2,
819
$2,
715
$1,4
22
$1,2
63
$2,
160
$1,7
92
$2,
073
$6
,79
1
$2,
241
$2,
539
$1,3
62
$1,0
89
$2,
08
9
$1,9
52
$1,6
59
$5,
763
$2,
030
$2,
44
1
$1,3
38
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$2,
301
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 6
Market Overview by Quarter
CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
$2,
548
$2,
325
$1,2
45$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN**
$9
86
$1,7
78
$1,9
64
$4
,354
$2,
018
$2,
313
$1,3
08
$1,3
73
$1,9
22
$1,9
10
$5,
109
$2,
140
$2,
281
$1,3
22
$1,1
17
$1,8
75
$1,9
87
$5,
48
6
$1,9
58 $2,
341
$1,3
78
$1,1
18
$2,
09
0
$1,7
29
$6
,188
$2,
197
$2,
589
$1,3
22
$2,
022
$2,
140
$2,
032
$2,
251
The graph below depicts pricing for Contract Signed and Closed units by quarter. Outside of Billionaire’s Row, Midtown East
experienced the largest quarter-over-quarter increase in Average PPSF at 12.2%, rising to $2,197 PSF, due largely to delivery
of units at 400 Park Avenue South. The Upper East Side experienced the second largest quarter-over-quarter increase, rising
11.5% to $2,090 PSF in Q4 2016, due predominately to contracts signed at 12 East 88th and 20 East End Avenue. Meanwhile,
Avg. PPSF in Brooklyn declined 4.1% quarter-over-quarter to $1,322, following four consecutive quarterly increases.
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd** Brooklyn neighborhoods tracked: Bedford Stuyvesant, Boerum Hill, Brooklyn Heights, Bushwick, Carroll Gardens, Clinton Hill, Crown Heights, Downtown Brooklyn, DUMBO, Greenpoint, Park Slope, Prospect Heights, Red Hook, Williamsburg
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 7
UPTOWN, MIDTOWN. AND DOWNTOWN
Outside of Billionaire’s Row, the highest average Contract Signed pricing in
Manhattan for 2016 was achieved in West Chelsea at $3,373 PSF followed by
Greenwich Village at $3,165. The highest average Closed pricing outside of
Billionaire’s Row occurred in the West Village at $3,159 PSF followed by West
Chelsea at $2,881 PSF.
Manhattan Neighborhood Insight
UPTOWN AND MIDTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
DOWNTOWN
MANHATTAN — ACTIVE, CONTRACT SIGNED, CLOSED — AVG. PRICE PER SQ. FT.
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
HARLEM UWS UES MIDTOWN WEST BILLIONAIRE'S ROW*
MIDTOWN EAST CHELSEA WEST CHELSEA HELL'S KITCHEN
$1,7
89
$2,
301
$2,
019
$2,
705
$5,
386
$2,
819
$2,
241
$2,
472 $3,
150
$1,6
65$
1,26
3
$2,
160
$1,7
92
$2,
588
$6
,79
1
$2,
366 $3,
373
$1,7
60$1,0
89
$2,
08
9
$1,9
52
$5,
763
$2,
030
$2,
06
3
$2,
88
1
$1,6
59
FINANCIAL DISTRICTEAST VILLAGE LESWEST VILLAGETRIBECANOHOSOHOGREENWICH VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAMERCYPARK
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$2,
121 $
3,55
9
$2,
98
1
$2,
810
$2,
741
$3,
037
$2,
542
$3,
08
6
$3,
561
$2,
022
$2,
284
$2,
213$3,
116
$2,
44
6
$2,
49
2
$2,
715
$3,
154
$2,
09
6
$1,7
75 $2,
548
$2,
105
$2,
355
$2,
268$3,
165
$2,
48
8
$3,
159
$1,6
27
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 8
Analysis by Unit TypeMANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
MANHATTAN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
BROOKLYN — MEDIAN PRICE PER UNIT TYPE
MANHATTAN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
BROOKLYN — TOTAL UNITS BY BEDROOM
$2M
$4M
$6M
$8M
$10M
$12M
$14M
$16M
$18M
0
1000
800
600
400
200
1200
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
781
88
1013781
348100
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$1.2
0M
$1.5
4M
$3.
01M
$5.
75M
$8
.35M
$17
.55M
$8
28K
$1.4
5M
$2.
92M
$5.
30M
$8
.03M
$14
.63M
$78
5K
$1.4
4M
$2.
72M
$5.
15M $
8.15
M
$11
.55M
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
NUMBER OF UNITS
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED TOTAL NUMBER OF UNITS
$6
12K
$9
71K
$1.6
7M
$2.
60
M
$4
.15M
$59
5K
$6
06
K
$9
19K
$1.5
0M $2.
20M
$3.
75M
$4
.07M
$9
08
K
$1.4
0M
$3.
40
M
&'"
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
$500K
$1M
$1.5M
$2M
$2.5M
$3M
$3.5M
$4M
$4.5M
67
198
227
132
58
5 BED4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO
16
42
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
173
228
237
153
289
154
314
257
20124
9
20
338
44
2
331
125
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50 36 36
3876
147
4 BED3 BED2 BED1 BEDSTUDIO6
6
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
57
67
48
23
49
8
105
47
100
57 56
47
15
46
70
29
20
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20 10
In 2016 two bedroom units experienced the most deal volume by unit type in Manhattan, with approximately 756 two bedroom units entering into
contract or closing. Similarly, in Brooklyn two bedroom units saw the most deal volume by unit type in 2016 with 170 units entering into contract or
closing. Median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms in Manhattan declined 4.6% year-over-year to $2.91M, down from $3.05M in 2015. Similarly,
in Brooklyn, median Contract Signed pricing for two bedrooms declined 5.6% year-over-year to $1.5M in 2016, down from $1.59M in 2015. In Manhattan,
two bedrooms show the most Active listings at nearly 260, with three bedrooms close behind at 249. Two bedrooms also comprise the most Active
listings in Brooklyn with 57, while one and three bedrooms follow closely, both unit types showing 47 listings.
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 9
Price Point Analysis MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
42.
4%
10.4
%
11.3
%
4.2
%
14.7
% 17.1%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
24.7
% 32
.3%
21.5
%
11.3
%
4.3
%
6.5%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
10.1%
27.6
%
17.8
%
9.0
%
24.6
%
10.9
%
26.4
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
40
.2%
38.7
%
14.1%
4.3
%
1.8%
0.9
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
11.2
%
16.4
%
11.6
% 8.4
%
22.6
%29.8
%
4.5
%
7.3%
13.6
% 9.0
%
$0-1M$1M-2M$2M-3M$3M-4M$4M-5M$5M+
26.6
%
39.0
%
42.4% of all Active new development listings in Manhattan are priced above $5M,
down from 49.1% at the end of 2015, and well below a high of 52% in Q1 2015. 15.6%
of Active listings remain priced above $10M, down from 22% at year-end 2015.
In Manhattan the total percentage of new development deals entering contract
from $1M to $3M rose to 45.4% in 2016, up from 37.4% at year-end 2015.
2016 PRICE POINT MANHATTAN — ACTIVE
2016 PRICE POINT BROOKLYN — ACTIVE
MANHATTAN — CONTRACT SIGNED
BROOKLYN — CONTRACT SIGNED BROOKLYN — CLOSED
MANHATTAN — CLOSED
In Brooklyn the total percentage of new development deals entering contract
priced at or below $3M rose to 93% in 2016, up from 84.6% at year-end 2015. In
contrast, the total percentage of Closed deals in Brooklyn priced at or above $5M
rose dramatically year-over-year to 25.4% in 2016, up from only 2.3% in 2015. This
reflects delivery of higher-priced new development product that entered into
contract 12 to 18 months ago.
318 W 47TH318w47.com
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 11
Total Inventory MANHATTAN AND BROOKLYN
The largest amount of total inventory in Manhattan is concentrated in the Upper
East Side, followed closely by the Lower East Side. The Lower East Side saw a
significant jump in inventory as One Manhattan Square officially launched sales
with over 800 units slated to be built. In Brooklyn the highest total inventory
is found in Williamsburg, Prospect Heights, and Boerum Hill. The graphs
below present total inventory by neighborhood along with the corresponding
percentage of units sold.
MANHATTAN TOTAL INVENTORY
BROOKLYN TOTAL INVENTORY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FINANCIALDISTRICT
LESWEST EASTVILLAGE VILLAGE
TRIBECANOHOSOHOGREEN.VILLAGE
FLATIRONGRAM.PARK
HELL'SKITCHEN
WESTCHELSEA
CHELSEAMIDTOWNEAST
BN.ROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
UESUWSHARLEM
48%
36%
84%
49%
83%
46% 4% 54%
79%44%
676
45
453
60
0
183
1051
114
340
246
252 35
8
370
PERCENTAGE SOLD
58% 57%
49%61% 39%68%
35%52%
19%
TOTAL UNITS PERCENT SOLD
934
1350
80
8
105
289 38
6
80
2
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WILLIAMSBURGPARK SLOPEGREEN POINT PROSPECT HEIGHTS
DUMBODOWNTOWNBROOKLYN
BOERUM HILLCROWN HEIGHTSCLINTON HILLSCARROLL GARDENS
BROOKLYNHEIGHTS
78%
58%
58%
310
18
27
345
110
188
144
3632
69
166
PERCENTAGE SOLD
42%
322
52%
520
94%88%
54% 42%
69%
TOTAL UNITS
0
100
300
200
400
500
600
700
800
PERCENT SOLD
74%
Total Inventory is defined as all new development units, both currently listed as either
Active, Contract Signed, or Closed, as well as those units not yet released to the
market. Available Units is defined as new development units that are either currently
listed as Active or those not yet released to the market. These numbers include units
released prior to 2016, provided they are in a project that has not sold out all sponsor
units. This data provides a comprehensive look at new development inventory by
including unreleased units.
* Billionaire’s Row comprised of: 157 W 57th, 20 W 53rd, 432 Park Ave, 21 E 61st, 22 CPS, 53 W 53rd
HPDM | HPDMNY.COM | 2016 Year-End Report | 12
Further Insight
Downtown Manhattan continued to experience the most new development
activity by volume in 2016, followed by Brooklyn and the Upper East Side. In
Manhattan, over 2250 units were sold in 2016 (Contract Signed and Closed),
a decline of 6.8% year-over-year from approximately 2400 units in 2015. In
Brooklyn, nearly 550 units were sold in 2016, down from just over 600 units sold
in 2015, a decline of 9.2%.
One bedroom and two bedroom units in Brooklyn remain more efficiently sized than
those in Manhattan. Median size for one bedroom units in Brooklyn is 686 sq.ft., while the
median for one bedroom units in Manhattan is 789 sq. ft. Median size for two bedroom
units in Brooklyn is 1151 sq.ft., while the median for two bedroom units in Manhattan is
1442 sq. ft.
NEW DEVELOPMENT LISTINGS BY NEIGHBORHOOD MEDIAN SIZE (SQ. FT.) BY UNIT TYPE
BKLYN**UPPERMANHATTAN
DOWNTOWNBNROW*
MIDTOWNWEST
MIDTOWNEAST
UWSUES
ACTIVE CONTRACT SIGNED CLOSED
125 66
64
62
37
46
4
48 18
6
125
107 19
2
84 105
5
46
0
91
370
153
78 11
706
78
177
66 100
200
300
400
500
700
600
UNITS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5 BR4 BR3 BR2 BR1 BRSTUDIO
MANHATTAN BROOKLYN
510
789
2,26
2
452
68
6
1,734
1,44
2
1,151
3,19
0
4,3
11
2,59
1
2,77
7
SQ.FT
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Prepared by Matthew Petrallia, Chief Market and Planning Analyst.The information presented here has been gathered from resources deemed reliable and refined by HPDM internal research, though it may be subject to errors, omissions, changes or withdrawal without notice. This information may not be copied, commercially used or distributed without HPDM’s prior consent.
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