Manchester monitor july 2014

Manchester Monitor Quarterly

Further Signs of Labour Market ImprovementGM Firms Intending to RecruitHotel Occupancy on the Rise AgainHouse Prices Slowly Moving UpwardsAssault Attendances Continue to Increase

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July 2014

International visits worth £0.5 billion to Greater Manchester

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www.neweconomymanchester.com

1 | Manchester Monitor – July 2014

This issue of the Manchester Monitor Quarterly includes adetailed feature on the latest results from the InternationalPassenger Survey (IPS). The analysis shows that GreaterManchester (GM) attracts the third highest number of foreignvisitors to the UK, behind only the capital cities of Londonand Edinburgh. In 2013 it attracted almost 1 million overseasvisitors, who spent around £480 million in the GM economy.Breaking this figure down in more detail, £127 million wasgenerated by business visits and £97 million from holidayvisits. The £480 million equates to growth of 10% on the2012 spend figure of £396 million.

The five markets that generated the highest volume ofinternational visits to GM according to the 2013 IPS areIreland, Germany, USA, Spain, and Poland. Combined, thesecountries generated 454,000 visits to GM in 2013,representing 39% of the total inbound market. Ireland isconsistently the largest market to GM, with 139,000 Irishvisitors in 2013. The figures also show significant growth forthe lower volume, but high potential emerging markets. TheBRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) although onlyrepresenting 4% of the overall inbound market, saw thevolume of visitors increase by 59% on the 2012 figures.

Turning to the regular visitor economy data on hoteloccupancy and airport passenger numbers, these indicatorsare also positive. Hotel occupancy rates in both Manchestercity centre and GM as a whole were recorded at 77% in May2014, up from 75% and 74% respectively from 12 monthspreviously. In order to meet the growing demand foraccommodation a substantial number of new hotel roomsare planned over the next two years. There are currently justover 7,000 hotel rooms in the city centre, with a further 1,895in the pipeline due to be built. By the end of 2016 there willbe almost 9,000 hotel rooms, an increase of 27% on currentlevels and one that should help in boosting the size andcontribution of the visitor economy to GM. Civil AviationAuthority data on airport passenger numbers are alsopositive, with Manchester Airport handling around 1.7 millionpassengers in April, an annual rise of 11.2%.

The latest figures from the Department for Work andPensions (DWP) show that around 55,800 people wereclaiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in May 2014 –a decrease of 2,800 (4.8%) when compared with the figurefor April. Overall, the number of JSA claimants in GM is

26,600 lower (32.3%) than 12 months ago. Around 3.2% ofthe resident working-age population in Greater Manchesterwere claiming JSA in May. This remains higher than in theNorth West (2.9%) and Great Britain (2.6%), mirroring thelonger term trend of the conurbation having a higher JSAclaimant rate – and highlighting an issue that GM still needsto tackle.

The jobs data for GM remain encouraging and this trend isevident across the rest of the UK. The number of people inemployment across the UK grew by 345,000 to a record 30.5million between February and April, according to the Officefor National Statistics (ONS). This was the biggest increasesince records began in 1971. ONS data also show thatprices are rising faster than wages again. Average payincluding bonuses grew by 0.7% in the three months to April,compared with 1.9% growth in the three months to March.Between April 2013 and April 2014, the Consumer PricesIndex (CPI) – the Government's preferred measure ofinflation – increased by 1.8%. More positively, forecastersincluding the Bank of England and the Office for BudgetResponsibility expect wages to begin outpacing inflation ona sustained basis during the second half of 2014.

Land Registry data show that house prices are continuingto rise. While the rises are still fairly small outside London,this reverses the downward trend witnessed in the last fewyears. The average house in GM cost £106,000 in May 2014,an increase of 3.9% (£4,000) from this time last year. The riseis still below the increase in prices in England & Wales as awhole, where they grew by 6.7% (£10,800) on an annualbasis to reach £172,000.

The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at eachof GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departmentsshow that there has been a year-on-year rise in the numberof people being treated for assaults over the last twelvemonths. Baseline data for the 12 months ending April 2014show that 12,900 people were treated for assault-relatedinjuries over the last 12 months in GM hospitals, an increaseof 1% on the figures from the previous year. More positivelyfor the crime data, GM Fire and Rescue Service data showthat for the year ending 27 May 2014, deliberate fires in GMwere recorded at 7,300. This compares to a figure of 8,725for the previous year and represents an annual decline of16.3% (1,400) in deliberate fires.

Monitor FocusInternational visits worth £0.5 billion to Greater Manchester

Manchester Monitor – July 2014 | 2

Monitor Dashboard

Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants

32.3%since last year

Employment Expectations

4pts

on a quarterly basis. Thebalance of GM servicesector companies in Q22014 reporting positive

employment expectationsover the next three months

House Prices

3.9%

since May 2013

Airport Passengers

11.2% since April 2013

Hotel Occupancy

2.4%ptsaverage occupancy

rate in GM was 76.6%, up from 74.2% on theprevious 12 months

Deliberate Fires

16.3%pts

since May 2013


JSA ClaimantsAround 3.2% of the resident working age population inGreater Manchester were claiming JSA in May. This washigher than in the North West (2.9%) and Great Britain(2.6%), mirroring the longer term trend of the conurbationhaving a higher JSA claimant rate than the region and alsonationally.

The number of male JSA claimants in GM fell on a monthlybasis by 5.1% (2,000) to 36,200, while the number of femaleclaimants decreased 4.3% (900) to 19,600. This is in line withthe annual JSA figures for males and females, whichcontinue to fall. On an annual basis, the number of maleclaimants in GM fell by 19,100 (34.5%), with a decline of7,500 (27.7%) for females.

Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in GreaterManchester declined by 7.6% (just over 1,000) on a monthlybasis between April and May, falling from 13,800 to 12,700.On an annual basis, the number of youth JSA claimants isnow 41.2% (8,900) lower than this time last year.

There was also a decline in long-term (6 months+) claimantsin GM in May 2014 to 26,000, down by 2.9% (800) on amonthly basis. Year-on-year, the number of long-termclaimants has fallen by 32.6% (12,700). This is a slightlylarger decrease than in the North West (31.3%) and alsoGreat Britain (29.6%).

The jobs data for GM remain encouraging and this trend isevident across the rest of the UK. The number of people inemployment grew by 345,000 to a record 30.5 millionbetween February and April, according to the Office forNational Statistics (ONS). This was the biggest increasesince records began in 1971.

ONS data also show that prices are rising faster than wagesagain. Average pay including bonuses grew by 0.7% in thethree months to April, compared with 1.9% growth in thethree months to March. Between April 2013 and April 2014,the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – the Government'spreferred measure of inflation – increased by 1.8%.

More positively, forecasters including the Bank of Englandand the Office for Budget Responsibility expect wages tobegin outpacing inflation on a sustained basis during thesecond half of 2014.

Vacancies DataThere were around 15,400 vacancies in GM in May 2014.Nearly two-thirds of positions were in Manchester (65.5%,or 10,055), followed by Stockport (8.0%, or 1,200) andBolton (5.8%, or 900).

The highest proportion of vacancies (31.2%) in May 2014was in professional occupations – 4,800 jobs. Associateprofessional & technical roles (22.5%, or 3,500 roles) wasthe second largest occupation group, followed by sales &customer service occupations (11.6%, or 1,800 positions).

Skills cluster analysis reveals that the top three most soughtafter specific skills by GM employers (excluding commonskills) in May 2014 were: basic customer service skills;general sales experience; and programming, developmentand engineering expertise.

People MonitorFurther signs of labour market improvement

The latest figures show that around 55,800 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM in May 2014 – adecrease of 2,800 (4.8%) when compared with the figure of 58,700 for April. Overall, the number of JSA claimants in GM is26,600 lower (32.3%) than 12 months ago.

Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in January 2014

55,842Decreased by 32.3% year-on-year

Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change

$26.2%

Vacancies - Annual Change

Women

$27.7%Men

$34.5%Youth

$41.2%Long-term

$32.6%

1Source: Labour/insight (Burning Glass Technologies)


ManufacturingThe balance of GM manufacturing companies reportingpositive expectations for employment over the next threemonths was 31% in Q2 2014 (the difference betweenpositive and negative responses). While this was down onthe balance of 44% for the first quarter of the year, the lasttime a negative figure was recorded was in Q4 2011 –indicating that firms remain confident about labour marketconditions in the sector.

Export figures for the manufacturing sector increased in Q22014, in terms of both deliveries and orders. The balance forexport deliveries was 19% (compared to 16% in Q1 2014),while for orders it was 25% (16% in Q1 2014). Domesticorders and deliveries also remain positive, with the balancefor orders standing at 27% and that for deliveries recordedat 33% for the second quarter of 2014.

ServicesThe balance of GM service companies reporting positiveemployment expectations for the next quarter was 33% inQ2 2014, up from 29% in Q1 2014. The last time the balancefor the sector was negative was five years ago in Q2 2009,with the outlook for services continuing to look positive.

While employment expectations within the services sectorare good, firms are still experiencing recruitment difficulties.The balance for companies reporting any difficulties was64% in Q2 2014 and the last time the figure was below 60%was in the final quarter of 2009 when it stood at 39%.

Domestic orders for the services sector are still rising, witha balance of 29% reported in Q2 2014. The balance fordomestic orders was also positive at 28%.

GM firms intending to recruit

The Q2 2014 GM Chamber of Commerce Quarterly Economic Survey (QES) collates the opinions of businesses across GM in theservice and manufacturing sectors. The latest results indicate the positive outlook is continuing, with firms in both sectors intendingto recruit and sales on the rise.

-30

-20

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Q2-

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Q2-

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Q2-

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Q2-

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Q2-

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Bal

ance

of f

irms

Manufacturing Services

UK services sectoremployment expectations

2014: +33%

UK manufacturing sector employment expectations

Q2 2014: +34%

Business MonitorEmployment Expectations in GM Firms


Place MonitorThis month’s quarterly feature looks in detail at the international visitor market to GM in order to provide a picture of recenttrends and patterns. The analysis draws on data from the International Passenger Survey 2013 (undertaken by the Officefor National Statistics, with results published by VisitBritain) to give estimates of the inbound visitor market. Inbound visitsare worth £480 million to the GM economy according to the results. Within this figure, £127 million was generated bybusiness visits and £97 million from holiday visits. The £480 million equates to growth of 10% on the 2012 spend figure of£396 million.

Most Visited UK DestinationsFigure 1 shows the cities that receive the largest volume ofvisits from international markets. It excludes London, whichcontinues to attract the highest number of internationalvisitors at 16.8 million. Manchester has consistently beenpositioned third on international visits since 2003, behindonly the capital cities of London and Edinburgh. In 2013 itattracted almost 1 million overseas visitors, and up by over50,000 on the 2012 figure of 932,000.

The 988,000 visits to Manchester in 2013 providedsignificant demand for hotel rooms whilst the attributableexpenditure benefitted businesses in the wider destinationincluding; attractions, restaurants, bars, entertainmentvenues, shops and transportation services.

As the number of flights into Manchester Airport increase (onexisting or new routes) this provides an opportunity toincrease passenger flows from visitor markets where activityis undertaken to drive inbound traffic.

Manchester’s inbound overseas market has increased by76% (430,000) since 2000. Over the same period Londonhas seen the number of overseas visitors increase by 28%,while in Edinburgh the growth stands at 43%.

Birmingham, Liverpool and Glasgow continue to movebetween the fourth, fifth and sixth positions and are all majorcompeting cities for the overseas market to the UK,providing strong competition for Manchester’s share of theoverseas visitor market.

1,303,000

988,000941,000

562,000515,000

456,000 428,000 409,000 404,000

299,000

0

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600,000

800,000

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m

Liver

pool

Glasgo

w

Oxford

Bristo

lBrig

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/Hov

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Cambrid

ge

Leed

s

Figure 1: International visits to UK destinations, 2013 (excluding London)

Source: International Passenger Survey, ONS & VisitBritain

8


Top 5 International Markets for GMThe five markets that generate the highest volume ofinternational visits to GM according to the 2013 data areIreland, Germany, USA, Spain and Poland (see Figure 2).Combined, these countries generated 454,000 visits to GMin 2013, representing 39% of the total inbound market. Thistrend is widely influenced by GM’s product and appeal, itsroutes for serving the market and its level of activity andengagement within these markets.

Ireland is consistently the largest market to GM, with139,000 Irish visitors in 2013. There has been movementbetween Germany and USA for the second and thirdpositions and between Spain, Poland and France for thefourth, fifth and sixth positions over the last three years.

Although France moved into fourth position in 2012 therehas been a continued decrease in volume from its 2011figure of 76,000 visits, to 68,000 visits in 2012, and to 56,000in 2013. This is a decrease of 26% from 2011-2013compared to an 8% increase of visitors from France for thesame period for the UK as a whole.

Figure 2 shows how GM’s top five markets compare to theUK as a whole. Germany, the USA and Ireland feature in bothdatasets with GM seeing higher significance from theSpanish and Polish markets and the UK, as a whole, with ahigher incidence of French and Dutch visitors. Despite notfeaturing in the top five markets for GM, both France andNetherlands are still key to Greater Manchester, sitting insixth and seventh position respectively.

Figure 2: Top 5 Inbound Markets to GM and the UK, 2013

Emerging Markets for GMThe ten country markets that generated the highest numberof visits to GM in 2013 represented 58% (675,000) of thetotal international inbound market. In 2012 the top tencountries accounted for 62% of all international visits,indicating a slightly wider spread across country markets in2013.

The figures show significant growth for the lower volume,but high potential, emerging markets. The BRICs market

(Brazil, Russia, India and China) although only representing4% of the overall inbound market saw the volume of visitorsincrease by 59% on the 2012 figures (see Figure 3).

The United Arab Emirates, Japan, New Zealand andSingapore are also additional markets that have a lowervolume but are showing considerable potential throughsignificant increases from 2012 to 2013.

Greater Manchester UK

1 Ireland (139,000) France (3.9 million)

2 Germany (93,000) Germany (3.2 million)

3 USA (83,000) USA (2.8 million)

4 Spain (74,000) Ireland (2.4 million)

5 Poland (65,000) Netherlands (1.9 million)

Figure 3: Visitors to GM from Emerging Markets, 2013




Purpose of International VisitsThe International Passenger Survey measures the purposeof international visits in the following categories; holiday,business, visiting friends and relatives, study and other.Figure 4 shows the countries that currently generate thehighest volume of holiday visits and business visits.

There is a higher dominance of key markets when lookingat the holiday and business markets, compared to allinternational visits.

The cumulative top 10 holiday visits account for 61% of thetotal holiday visits to Greater Manchester whilst the top 10business visits account for 60% of the total business visits.This is compared to 58%, as previously mentioned, for allinternational inbound visits.

Holiday Visits

Australia has seen its visitor numbers more than double,from 9,000 in 2009 to 22,000 in 2013. This has resulted in itbecoming the second largest market for holiday visits to GM.

Also key to the generation of holiday visits, and within thetop ten, are the Scandinavian markets of Norway andSweden. Denmark has seen a decline in volume to 2010levels and that has resulted in it moving out of the top 10.

If looking at the BRIC countries as a market segment, as awhole, holiday visits increased by 118% from 2012-13 withthe highest growth being from the countries of Brazil andRussia.

Business VisitsBusiness visits are defined in the survey as anyone travellingin a business or official capacity for purposes related to theirwork/profession or in some other official capacity.

The significant growth across all visits from the inboundmarkets of Japan and New Zealand, as previouslymentioned, are being particularly fed by an increase ininbound business visits from these countries.

In terms of the BRIC countries, business visits have grownsignificantly from China, India and Brazil but Russia has seenthe opposite trend and generated a particularly smallbusiness visit market in 2013.

While the BRIC markets as a whole saw 118% growth inholiday visits, business visits generated 53% growth incomparison from 2012-13.

Figure 4: Top 3 inbound markets for holiday and business visits, 2013

Holiday Visits Business Visits

1 Ireland (25,000) Germany (36,000)

2 Australia (22,000) Poland (34,000)

3 Germany (21,000) USA (33,000)

Hotel OccupancyHotel occupancy rates in Manchester city centre wererecorded at 77% in May 2014, up from 75% 12 monthspreviously. The average for GM as a whole in May 2014 wasalso 77%, an increase on the 2013 figure of 74%. It is alsothe first time GM occupancy matched the city centre ratesfor the month of May.

Average weekday occupancy in Manchester city centre was73% (compared to 72% in 2013), while it was 83% onweekends (compared to 79% in 2013).

Occupancy peaks in the city centre during May aresummarised below:

• 98% on 14 May – occupancy was boosted by Miley Cyrusperforming at the Phones 4U Arena. In addition, the BritishInsurance Brokers Association 2014 conference &exhibition was held at Manchester Central, attractingapproximately 5,000 delegates.

• 97% on 13 May – The night before the British InsuranceBrokers Association conference & exhibition with an8.30am start on the 14th.

• 97% on 17 May – The night before the Great ManchesterRun from Manchester city centre, as well as the RugbySuper League Magic Weekend at the Etihad Stadium.

• 96% on 7 May – Manchester City hosting Aston Villa atthe Etihad in their penultimate league match of the season,as well as Manchester Central hosting Green Expo Build2014.

In order to meet the growing demand for accommodationas a result of GM’s buoyant visitor economy, a substantialnumber of new hotel rooms are planned over the next twoyears. There are currently just over 7,000 hotel rooms in thecity centre, with a further 1,895 confirmed in the pipeline dueto be built. By the end of 2016 there will be almost 9,000hotel rooms, an increase of 27% on current levels.



% represents year-on-year change

Airport passenger numbers (+11.2%)

1,700,330

IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without theexpress written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.

Hotel occupancy (GM) (+2.4% pts)

76.6%

Hotel occupancy (city centre) (+2.0% pts)

76.7%

Airport Passenger NumbersManchester Airport handled around 1.7 million passengersin April 2014 according to data from the Civil AviationAuthority (CAA). This represents an annual increase of11.2%, or nearly 172,000 additional passengers. The lateEaster holiday period is likely to have contributed to thissubstantial increase in the number of people passingthrough the Airport.

For January to April 2014, passenger numbers atManchester stand at 5.6 million. This is almost 240,000higher (4.3%) than for the same time period 12 monthspreviously.

Comparator airports all saw annual increases in passengernumbers between April 2013 and 2014, with Birminghamseeing the highest growth at 16.8%. This was followed byGatwick (15.5%), Stansted (10.7%) and Heathrow (6.7%).

The May CAA data are expected to confirm further growthat Manchester Airport, coinciding with two bank holidayweekends and the school half-term break. May also saw theinaugural FlyNas to Jeddah flight, along with a brand newAmerican Airlines’ flight to Charlotte, in North Carolina, oneof the largest hubs in America. Jet2.com also launched itsnew service to Vienna in Austria, a previously unservedEuropean capital city.

The all time peak annual passenger number at ManchesterAirport is 22 million. This was achieved seven years ago andthere is growing confidence that it will be surpassed over thenext 18 months if recent trends continue.

In further good news for the Airport and the surroundingeconomy, Emirates has announced plans to create a newcustomer service centre in the area. The Dubai-based carrierhas had a contact centre in Wilmslow since March 2000, andfrom September it will be relocating its base to ManchesterBusiness Park, next to the Airport – housing around 300 ofits staff.

SummaryResults from the International Passenger Survey confirm theimportance of international visitors to the GM. Almost 1 million international visitors came to the area in 2013,generating nearly £0.5 billion for the economy. Ireland isconsistently the largest market to GM, with 139,000 visitors,while Germany, USA, Spain and Poland complete the topfive markets for visitors to GM.

The BRICs market (Brazil, Russia, India and China) althoughonly representing a relatively small share of the market, hasseen substantial growth in visitor numbers.

With hotel occupancy and airport passenger numberscontinuing to rise, a substantial number of new hotel roomsare planned over the next two years to meet growingdemand. By the end of 2016 there will be almost 9,000 hotelrooms, an increase of 27% on current levels.

Flights (1.4%)

13,125


Housing Monitor

£98,000

£99,000

£100,000

£101,000

£102,000

£103,000

£104,000

£105,000

£106,000

£107,000

May-12Aug-12

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HOUSE SALES

HOUSE PRICESMay 2014: £106,031

March 2014: 2,663

GM Housing Market

House prices slowly moving upwards

Land Registry data show that the average house in GM cost £106,000 in May 2014, an increase of 3.9% (£4,000) from thistime last year. The rise is still below the increase in prices in England & Wales as a whole, where they grew by 6.7% (£10,800)on an annual basis to reach £172,000.

House PricesHouse prices in the North West saw an annual rise of 1.3%(£1,500). This was below the GM increase, although theaverage cost of a property in the region remains higher thanthe conurbation at £110,000.

At a local authority level, Trafford has the highest averageproperty price at £187,000. With the exception of Tameside,all GM districts saw house price rises between May 2013and 2014. Stockport (£11,400, or 8.3%), Salford (£7,800, or9.0%), Oldham (£7,000, or 9.3%) and Trafford (£6,800, or3.7%) saw the highest absolute rises. Tameside experienceda small decline of 0.7% (£700).

House Sales There were 2,663 house sales in GM in March 2014, a riseof 25.6% (543) on the 2013 figure. This was higher than theannual increases seen in the North West (19.5%) andEngland & Wales (16.2%) over the same period.

At a local authority level, Manchester saw the largest numberof house sales in GM (405), followed by Stockport (367) andWigan (297). The lowest number of house sales in GM wererecorded in Rochdale (171) followed by Bury (180) and Bury(176).

While the price and sales data indicate the housing marketis returning to growth, figures from the Bank of Englandshow the number of mortgages approved in the UK hasfallen to its lowest level for almost a year. Around 61,700mortgages were approved in May, down from 62,806 inApril. The dip in May approvals follows the introduction ofnew lending rules in April under the Mortgage Market Review(MMR), forcing banks and building societies to undertaketougher affordability checks before they grant loans.


Crime Monitor

683

3,495

1,573

320649

6,610

3,637

1,668

386

6,714

0-14 15-29 30-44 45-59 60 and Over

May 2012-April 2013 May 2013-April 2014

Assault Attendances at GM Emergency Departments, by Age Group

Assault attendances continue to increase

The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at each of GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departmentsshow that there has been a year-on-year rise in the number of people being treated for assaults over the last twelve months.

Assaults DataBaseline data for the 12 months ending April 2014 show that12,900 people were treated for assault related injuries overthe last 12 months in GM hospitals, an increase of 1% onthe figures from the previous year. This total is the lowestsince July 2013 and represents a levelling off of the risebetween late 2012 and that date. Decreases are now beingnoted in hospitals such as Wythenshawe, Manchester RoyalInfirmary and Royal Bolton, and increases noted in hospitalssuch as Fairfield General, Rochdale Infirmary and NorthManchester General.

Analysing the data in further detail, in the 12 months to April2014, 51% (6,610) of assault patients were aged 15–29. Thesame demographic comprises just 21.5% of the GMresident population as a whole according to the latest ONS

estimates, highlighting that 15–29 year olds remainparticularly vulnerable to violence. However, the proportionof 15–29-year old victims is currently at some of its lowestlevels since records began in 2009. In the period since then,the proportion of assault victims aged 30–59 has risen fromthe 2009 low of 37% to the current high of 40.9%, and thoseaged 60+ has also increased from 2.3% to a current high of 3%.

Fire & Rescue Service DataGM Fire and Rescue Service data show that for the yearending 27 May 2014, deliberate fires in GM were recordedat 7,300. This compares to a figure of 8,725 for the previousyear and represents an annual decline of 16.3% (1,400) indeliberate fires.

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