Managing uncertainty with scenario planning · Managing uncertainty with scenario planning Martin...
Transcript of Managing uncertainty with scenario planning · Managing uncertainty with scenario planning Martin...
Managing uncertainty with scenario planning
Martin Bö[email protected]
www.futuramb.se+46 704 262891
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Why am I here?
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I’m going to make your world/design context a more complex place!
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Challenges with design
Designers of today occasionally
1. don’t know what a user is
2. don’t understand what the users do or plan to do with artefact
3. don’t understand how the users think and why they are doing things
4. don’t understand the systemic user context and how it is changing/might change over time
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Are design contexts stable?
• Are there differences between artefacts and systems?
• How fast are they changing?
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Was it better in the old days?
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future
Uncertainty
Wildcards
Now
2015
2025
How uncertain is the future?
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Importance of understanding the systemic contextual environment
• We are currently living in a rather turbulent, changing and uncertain environment
• Artefacts and systems tend to live much longer then we expect
• The users are more increasingly
• more innovative
• more critical, demanding and unfaithful
• striving to define and master their own situation
• moving among different contexts
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Clock of the Long Now
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Contextualenvironment
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and companies
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
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Necessity of perspective
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Key question
How do we understand and take into consideration the changing greater contextual environment?
An environment which is
• dynamicly changing
• complicated and complex
• uncertain
• abstract
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Oil price development 1970 - 1981
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
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Oil price development 1970 - 1990
High
Low
Base
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Actual outcome
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Clues
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!“Memory of the future”
! The brain rearranges memory fragments to images of the future
! Provides a foundation for intentions and plans
! Focus perception and filter information
Autonomous
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Uncertainty
in time
Un
certa
inty
in is
su
e
Today
Traditional
predictions
Driving f
Driving force
Driving force
Driving f
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C
Scenario D
Scenario logic
Different approach: focus on criticaluncertainties
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The future for American automotive industry
Low-price fuel
High-price fuel
Neotraditionalvalues
Inner-directed values
Engineers’
Challenge•Efficiency
•Protectionism
Green
Highways•Smaller cars
•Versatility
Foreign
Competition•Sportier cars
•Light trucks and vans
Long Live
Detroit•Muscle cars
•Brand loyalty
(1980:s)
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What’s the point?
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Jail
The factory
bling bling
Systemsanalyst?
??
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???(wwdkwdk)
don’t knowknow
haveknowledge
don’t have knowledge
Make horseshoes
Accounting
Fire and heat
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Contextualenvironment
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and companies
Transactionenvironment
Internalworld
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Events
Patterns
Underlying structureCritical
uncertainties Technology
Laws & regulations
Economy
Values
Culture
Politics
Ecology
”CNN provides the events,Henry Kissinger is the underlying structure”
Driving forces
Systemic view
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Scenario development
Events
Patterns
Underlying structure
Visible manifestations
Trends
Causal relations
Stories
Sequences of events
Drivkrafter
Scenariologik
System Scenarios
Critical uncertainties
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1. Key focual issueand time perspective
5. Scenario logic
Scenario development
2.Key factors
4. Prioritization
3. Environmentaldriving forces
Internalworld
Social factors, values and
demography
Technologydevelopment and
innovation
Environment and ecology
Politics, lawsand regulations
Economy, industries and compananies
Environment
Transactionenvironment
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1. Choose key focal issue(+ time perspective)
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Uncertainty
Impact offoreseeable
factors
Distance to future
F S G
Source: Kees van der HeijdenScenarios – The Art of Strategic Conversation
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2. List key factors
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
1. Brainstorm on PostIt notes!
– List everything you know have an impact
– ”Empty the barrel of the obvious”
2. Cluster notes and identify 4-6 key areas of impact
– Avoid generic predefined areas
– ”Let the notes talk!
Brainstorm tips:
• First individual brainstorm, then group discussion
• No single word PostIts
• ”Yes, and…”
• Keept the pace and keep the time limit!
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3. Identify environmentaldriving forces
2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
• Widen the search to a higher level
• Add driving forces which
• Impacts the 4-6 key areas of impact
• Impacts the focal issue directly
• Use STEEP model
Tips:
• Ask why, why, why, why, why (5 times)
• Don’t be afraid of long shots!
• Keep yourself in the outer environment
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Social factorsCultural patterns
Values and lifestyles
Demographics
Health
Crime
Education
Technological factorsDiffusion of technologies
Innovations
Scientific progressEconomical factorsIndustries and companies
Global, regional and local economy
Labour force and income
Infrastructure
Environmental factorsEcology
Climate/weather
Pollution
Recycling
Energy
Political factorsPolicys, laws and regulations
Political agendas
Court decisions
STEEP-model2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
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4. Prioritize driving forces2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
Unimportant
Uncertainty
Predeterminedelements
Criticaluncertainties
Impact
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5. Construct scenario logic2. Key factors
3. Environmentaldriving forces
4. Prioritization
1. Key focal issue andtime perspective
5. Scenario logic
ABC XYZIssue
IssueHigh Low
ABC XYZ
High
Low
ScenarioA
ScenarioB
ScenarioC
ScenarioD
1. Identify two most critical uncertainties
• From the top right corner
2. Stretch them to their extremes
• Mutually exclusiveness!
3. Construct scenario cross
4. Discuss resulting scenarios andgive them telling names
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Low-price fuel
High-price fuel
Neotraditionalvalues
Inner-directed values
Engineers’
Challenge•Efficiency
•Protectionism
Green
Highways•Smaller cars
•Versatility
Foreign
Competition•Sportier cars
•Light trucks and vans
Long Live
Detroit•Muscle cars
•Brand loyalty
Use of contextual scenarios
Evaluating/testing design
Learning aboutcontextual situation
Communicating and collaborating around contextual situation
Innovating and developing
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Windtunneling/evaluating
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Wind tunneling for adjusting design
Sketch or spec
A
B
C
A
B
C
Given factors
Secondary factors
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Evaluating design with”adopt-a-world” model
A
B
C
Alternativefuture worlds
A
B
C
The market in each world
A
B
C
Products andservices in each world
Possible ways of design or
package business idea
Opportunities ExpertsNeed for products and services
1 2 3 4 5
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Creating design roomshttp://www.smart-its.org/
• Three restaurants
• The edgy restaurant (experiences)
• The social restaurant (social interaction)
• The PC (Politically Correct) restaurant (ecological and ethical food and process)
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Scenario planning
• Help us see the bigger picture...
• Not ignoring uncertainties
• Relate to larger environment
• Understand underlying driving forces
• ...and visualize and help us better understand both long and short term consequences
• Communicate our findings
• Collaborate and innovate
• Evaluate our design
• Widen our thoughts
• Identifies blind spots
• Facilitates learning on a strategic level
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Scenario references
http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario_planning/Website with many references to articles, books and other resources
The Art of the Long ViewPeter Schwartz
Scenarios – The art of strategic conversationKees van der Heijden
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