Managing Risk During PV Plant Development

q  This webinar will be available afterwards at www.solarpowerworldonline.com & email

q  Q&A at the end of the presentation q  Hashtag for this webinar: #SolarWebinar

Before We Start

Frank Andorka Solar Power World

Moderator Presenters

Scott Jezwinski UL, LLC

Chris Flueckiger UL, LLC

Managing Risk in PV Plant Developments

UL and the UL logo are trademarks of UL LLC © 2014

Solar Photovoltaic (PV) Power Plants


1.  PV Module 2.  DC Switch Gear 3.  DC/AC Inverter 4.  AC Switch Gear 5.  Substation 6.  Distribution Network 1

2

3 4

5

6

PV Plant Reference Model

DC/AC


•  Feasibility analysis •  Site control •  Permits •  Due diligence (EYA) •  Technology analysis •  Detailed design •  Contracts

•  Project management •  Procurement •  Construction management •  Regulatory compliance •  Environmental compliance •  Stakeholder reporting •  Commissioning

•  Performance monitoring/reporting

•  Issue detection •  Preventative maintenance •  Site maintenance •  Production reporting

Short list of development activities

PV Plant Development Phases

Planning & Design Construction Operations & Maintenance


Attractive Risk Fundamentals •  Passive systems with no or few moving parts •  Modularity of construction •  Maturing and stabilizing technology

Simplified PV Project Risk Management Strategy: •  Step 1: Identify and assess risks •  Step 2: Mitigate and/or distribute risk across stakeholders •  Step 3: Insure risk that is not allocated

PV Risk Management


Technical Risk Concerns Impact Solar Resource Estimation Confidence in solar resource data as

basis for projections •  Production shortfall

Component Specifications Performance specifications adequate for the location/ application

•  Production shortfall •  System downtime

System Design Balance integration of components with system reliability, availability and maintainability

•  Production shortfalls •  System downtime

Energy Yield Projections Confidence in performance estimates •  Production shortfalls

Construction Risks Compliance to codes and standards, integrity of the built system, experience of construction staff

•  Unplanned cost •  Delayed production

In-‐‑Service Risks Component reliability and performance over time.

•  Unplanned cost •  System downtime •  Production shortfalls

General Categories of Risk


Risk and Uncertainty

“Uncertainty factors” are associated with energy yield projections and introduce an additional element of risk.


Spe

nd/In

come

$$


Commercial Operation Date (COD)

*

Risk Scenario


Financial profile of a PV project. Planned Rate of

Spend

Production


Spe

nd/In

come

$$


*

Added Cost of Defects 1.  Rework #1 2.  Rework #2

Risk Scenario

2

1



Spen

d/Inc

ome $

$


*

3 4

5

Total Additional Cost of Defects 1.  Rework #1 2.  Rework #2 3.  Corrective Action 4.  Contractual Penalty 5.  Missed Opportunity

Risk Scenario

2

1


Cost

of Re

movin

g Defe

ct $


Cost of Defects

1X 10X

100X


Relative cost of removing defects

Planning and Design Phase

•  Feasibility analysis •  Site control •  Permits •  Due diligence (EYA) •  Technology analysis •  Detailed design •  Contracts

Planning & Design

Solar Resource

Shading

Weather

Energy Yield

Contracts

Design Approval

Feasibility Analysis


Planning & Design and Risk

Uncertainties impacting risk: •  Solar resource and meteorological conditions

•  Integrity and performance of products ( hardware)

•  System design - balancing cost and performance


Construction Phase

•  Project management •  Procurement •  Construction management •  Regulatory compliance •  Environmental compliance •  Stakeholder Reporting •  Commissioning

Construction

DC/AC


Construction and Risk

Risk realization during construction: •  Non-compliant construction (codes)

•  Non-compliant products (standards)

•  Construction errors

•  Product modifications in the field


Operations & Maintenance

Operations & Maintenance

•  Performance monitoring/reporting

•  Issue detection •  Preventative maintenance •  Site maintenance •  Production reporting

SCADA

DC/AC


O&M and Risk

Risk realization during on-going operations: •  Hardware failures

•  Unplanned power degradation ( beyond expected)

•  Electrical hazards develop ( bonding and grounding)

•  Interconnection and grid stability


UL - Identify/Mitigating PV Plant Risk •  A global service provider for

developers, EPCs, financiers, owners/operators and insurers of PV systems.

•  Over 300 PV system related field transactions

•  Involved in nearly 1GW of PV plant projects with related services

•  Trusted partner across development phases:

•  Planning &Design •  Construction •  Operations & Maintenance

•  Mitigating project risk and delay


Thank You

Contact: Sco^ Jezwinski -‐‑ Business Dev Manager Phone: 847-‐‑664-‐‑3310 sco^[email protected] www.ul.com


Contact: Chris Flueckiger – Principal Engineer Phone: 847-‐‑664-‐‑2864 [email protected] www.ul.com

BUILDING TRUST

into the

PV VALUE CHAIN


Questions?

Frank Andorka Solar Power World [email protected] Twitter: @SolarFrankA

Scott Jezwinski UL, LLC [email protected] Phone: 847.664.3310

Chris Flueckiger UL, LLC [email protected] Phone: 847.664.2864

q  This webinar will be available at www.solarpowerworldonline.com & email

q  Tweet with hashtag #SolarWebinar

q  Connect with Solar Power World

q  Discuss this topic on EngineeringExchange.com

Thank You

Managing Risk During PV Plant Development

Technology

Transcript of Managing Risk During PV Plant Development