Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story...

14
Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk William Oliver Director and Risk Management Executive BofA Global Capital Management Jennifer Powers Assistant Treasurer UPS Geoff Nolan Senior Manger eBay, Inc. Jeffrey Clennon Director Discover Financial Services ARQ8HU3L | PRES-09-13-0415 | 09/2013 For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Transcript of Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story...

Page 1: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Managing Liquidity in the

Face of Headline Risk

William Oliver Director and

Risk Management Executive

BofA Global Capital Management

Jennifer Powers Assistant Treasurer

UPS

Geoff Nolan Senior Manger

eBay, Inc.

Jeffrey Clennon Director

Discover Financial Services

ARQ8HU3L | PRES-09-13-0415 | 09/2013

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 2: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Detroit Files for Chapter 9 Bankruptcy Investors drop Detroit’s municipal bonds

after city files for bankruptcy

Detroit Recovery Plan Threatens Muni-Market

Underpinnings

Headline Risk: Threat to Your Portfolio

How do you manage threats

with unknown consequences?

2

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 3: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Managing Headline Risk

• Definition

• Types

• Process for Proactive Approach

• Process Application

• Conclusion

3

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 4: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Definition of Headline Risk

Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price

or the performance of the market as a whole.

Liquidity

Risk

Security

Value

Headline

Risk

Counterparty

Risk

Market

Risk Credit

Risk

Interest Rate

Risk

Reputational

Risk

4

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 5: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Types of Headline Risk

Region Company Sector Regulatory

5

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 6: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Managing Headline Risk:

A Proactive Approach

Monitor Assess Act

Success factors

• Established, defined process

• Ongoing, formal communication

• Clear roles and responsibilities

6

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 7: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

7

Monitor Headline Risk Monitor Assess Act

You

Risk

Compliance

Legal

Clients

Trading

Research

Objective: Identify early signs, red flags or threats to portfolio

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 8: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

8

Assess Headline Risk Monitor Assess Act

Objective: Recommend action to address portfolio threat

Determine

Relevance

Scope

Source

Action plan

Contingencies

Communication

strategy

Magnitude

Persistence

Security

provisions/

credit structure

Buy/sell/hold security

Shift asset allocation

Change investment

approach

Adjust investment policy

statement

Do nothing/wait and see

Evaluate

Impact

Develop

Plan

Recommend

Action

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 9: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

9

Impact of Headline Risk

Positive Negative

Long T

erm

S

hort

Term

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 10: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

10

Act on Headline Risk Monitor Assess Act

Objective: Carry out plan to manage headline risk

Success factors

• Regular, formal access to approval committee

• Ongoing monitoring for new developments

Obtain

Approvals

Take

Action

Communicate

Action

Continue to

Monitor

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 11: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Process Application: Known Risk Example: Fed Tapering

Success factors

• Access to experts and decision makers

• Coherent, event-based triggers

• Planned communication strategy

11

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 12: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Process Application: Unknown Risk Example: Geopolitical

Key to success:

Ability to tap into established, defined process

quickly and efficiently

12

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 13: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Conclusion

• Managing headline risk

Best chance of successful outcome

13

• Establish a process

• Proactive approach

Monitor, assess and act

Managing the unknown

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

Page 14: Managing Liquidity in the Face of Headline Risk...Definition of Headline Risk Risk that a news story will adversely affect a security’s price or the performance of the market as

Thank You

14

For institutional use only. Not for distribution to the general public.

BofA™ Global Capital Management Group, LLC (BofA Global Capital Management) is an asset management division of Bank of America Corporation. BofA Global Capital Management entities furnish investment

management services and products for institutional and individual investors.

BofA Advisors, LLC is an SEC-registered investment advisor and indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Bank of America Corporation and is part of BofA Global Capital Management.