Managing Client Assets 130724 - ATGF€¦ · Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed Tapering...

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1 Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed Tapering You are now logged in to ATG Legal Ed Connect. Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed Tapering July 24, 2013 Program Time Today’s presentation will begin at 12:00 noon. Sound Quality To improve sound quality, please close all other applications. Printed Materials We sent you a link to printable notes pages for this presentation in the email message confirming your registration for this program. Problems? If you experience any problems during this presentation, please call 800.252.0402, then press “0” for the operator. Managing Client Assets With an Eye Toward Fed Tapering presented by with

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1

Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed Tapering

You are now logged in to ATG Legal Ed Connect.

Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed TaperingJuly 24, 2013

Program TimeToday’s presentation will begin at 12:00 noon.

Sound QualityTo improve sound quality, please close all other applications.

Printed MaterialsWe sent you a link to printable notes pages for this presentation in the email message confirming your registration for this program.

Problems?If you experience any problems during this presentation, please call 800.252.0402, then press “0” for the operator.

2

Managing Client Assets

With an Eye Toward Fed Tapering

presented by

with

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33

Today’s Agenda

•Introduction Christopher LaPorta, AFIM, CTFA - Senior Portfolio Manager and Trust Officer,

ATG Trust Company

•Background on Financial Counselors, Inc.Eugene Helm, FCI Managing Director – Trust Investment Solutions

•Global EconomyGary Cloud, CFA, FCI Senior Vice President, Co-Chief Investment Officer -

Fixed Income

•Asset Allocation and Equity MarketsBrian Perott, CFA, FCI Senior Vice President , Managing Director of Core Equity

and Head of FCI’s Asset Allocation Committee

•Fixed Income MarketsGary Cloud

•Questions and AnswersChristopher LaPorta

44

Introduction

Christopher LaPorta

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Background on

Financial Counselors, Inc.

Eugene Helm

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Financial Counselors, Inc.

• Founded in 1966

• Based in Kansas City, Missouri with Offices in: Overland Park, KansasShelton, ConnecticutHerndon, VirginiaClayton, Missouri

• SEC Registered Investment Advisory Firm

• Owned by MTC Holding Company, which is largely owned by Employees and Directors

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Financial Counselors, Inc.

• Approximately $5 billion in Assets Under Management (6/30/13)

• 53 Employees, 28 are Investment Professionals– 22 Portfolio Managers– 13 CFAs– 13 MBAs– 3 CFPs– Investment Professionals Average more than 20 Years of Industry Experience– Many Portfolio Managers are former Trust Officers

8

Investment Solutions

• Accounts are managed with sensitivity to taxes, where appropriate (i.e. low turnover equity portfolios or municipal bond portfolio, retention of securities with low-cost basis)

• Diversification, via a mix of asset classes, that is consistent with each client’s tolerance for risk and investment time horizon

• Transition management that facilitates the gradual implementation of portfolio changes to mitigate tax and trading costs

• Investment recommendations that are consistent with each client’s guidelines, including any socially responsible or green investing preferences

Clients have diverse needs and FCI’s program is flexibly implemented to address those needs. Responding to client-specific issues is a cornerstone of the FCI program.

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Investment Solutions

• A Broad Range of Fiduciary-Quality Investment Solutions

– 4 Proprietary Separate Security Equity Portfolio Styles

– Fixed Income Management Utilizing Taxable and Tax-Exempt Bonds

• Portfolios are Managed According to Prudent Investor Act Standards

• Portfolios can be Managed on a Discretionary (no approval required) or Non-Discretionary Basis (trades Implemented only if approved)

1010

Global Economy

Gary Cloud, CFA

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11

Weekly Data 1/08/1999 - 7/12/2013 (Log Scale)

(IE516)

European Central Bank Assets ( ) 3114. 17U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Credit ( ) 3456. 32Bank of Japan Assets ( ) 1893. 70Bank of England Assets ( ) 606. 81

In billions dollars

Source: Haver Analytics 154 168 183 200 218 238 260 284 309 337 368 402 438 478 522 569 621 677 739 806 879 959

1046114212451359148216171764192521002291249927272975324535403862

154 168 183 200 218 238 260 284 309 337 368 402 438 478 522 569 621 677 739 806 879 959

1046114212451359148216171764192521002291249927272975324535403862

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Central Bank Balance Sheets for Selected Countries

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Central Bank Balance Sheets

for Selected Countries

12

(E702)

Monthly Data 11/30/1948 - 6/30/2013 (Log Scale)

CPI Point Gain/Annum When:

Gain/ % Economy Is: Annum of Time

Contracting -1. 9 17. 1

* Expanding 0. 3 82. 9

Buy/Hold -0. 0 100. 0

Shaded areas represent National Bureau of

Economic Research recessions.

6/30/2013 = 1.8%

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Inflation Rate vs the Economy

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Inflation Rate vs. The Economy

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DAVIS182© Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

U.S. M2 Money Supply Velocity (GDP/M2) Quarterly Data 1954-12-31 to 2013-03-31

DAVIS182© Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

U.S. M2 Money Supply Velocity (GDP/M2) Quarterly Data 1954-12-31 to 2013-03-31

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

1.525

1.550

1.575

1.600

1.625

1.650

1.675

1.700

1.725

1.750

1.775

1.800

1.825

1.850

1.875

1.900

1.925

1.950

1.975

2.000

2.025

2.050

2.075

2.100

2.125

1.525

1.550

1.575

1.600

1.625

1.650

1.675

1.700

1.725

1.750

1.775

1.800

1.825

1.850

1.875

1.900

1.925

1.950

1.975

2.000

2.025

2.050

2.075

2.100

2.125 2013-03-31 = 1.53x

Source: Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board

U.S. M2 Money Supply Velocity

14

UIP503A © Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

Commodity Sector Index Daily Data 2008-07-18 to 2013-07-19 (Log Scale)

UIP503A © Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.See NDR Disclaimer at www.ndr.com/copyright.html For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/

Commodity Sector Index Daily Data 2008-07-18 to 2013-07-19 (Log Scale)

Sep Dec 2009

Mar Jun Sep Dec 2010

Mar Jun Sep Dec 2011

Mar Jun Sep Dec 2012

Mar Jun Sep Dec 2013

Mar Jun

133

134

136

137

138

140

141

143

144

145

147

148

150

151

153

154

156

158

159

161

162

164

166

167

169

171

172

174

176

178

179

133

134

136

137

138

140

141

143

144

145

147

148

150

151

153

154

156

158

159

161

162

164

166

167

169

171

172

174

176

178

179 Commodity Sector Index / S&P 500 Index (07/19/2013 = 134.71)50-Day SMA (07/19/2013 = 135.42)200-Day SMA (07/19/2013 = 139.77)

Uses S&P 500 cap-weighted sectors (equal-weighting the returns of each sector, rebalanced quarterly). Source : S&P Capital IQ and MSCI, Inc. (GICS)

Commodity Sector Components : Energy and Materials.

Chart Range (Years): 1 , 2 , 3 , 5, 10 , 20 , Max

Commodity Sector Index

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Monthly Data 1/31/1968 - 6/30/2013

(E102B)

6/30/2013 = 7.557%

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1-Month Point Change 6/30/2013 = 0.002

Unemployment Rising

Unemployment Falling

+2 Standard Deviations

-2 Standard Deviations-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Year-to-Year Point Change 6/30/2013 = -0.629

Unemployment Rising

Unemployment Falling

+1 Standard Deviation

-1 Standard Deviation Shaded areas represent

National Bureau ofEconomic Research recessions

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Unemployment Rate

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Unemployment Rate

1616

Monthly Data 6/30/1982 - 5/31/2013

(E246I)

Total 5/31/2013 = 4.9

Balanced Market

Too Few Homes Available

Too Many Homes Available

Measured as Months' Available Supply

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Existing Single-Family Homes 5/31/2013 = 5.0 Source: Haver Analytics

4 5 6 7 8 9

1011121314

4 5 6 7 8 9

1011121314

New Homes 5/31/2013 = 4.1

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Housing Inventory-to-Sales Ratios

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Housing Inventory-to-Sales Ratios

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Quarterly Data 3/31/1952 - 3/31/2013

(E0502)

Household Credit Market Debt = $12800.0 Billion _______________________________________ GDP = $16004.5 Billion

= 80.0% ( )

Household Mortgage Debt = $9378.9 Billion ____________________________________GDP = $16004.5 Billion

= 58.6% ( )

46.344.5

49.0

61.7

97.4

42.8 43.1

46.7

60.9

Data Subject To Revisions ByThe Federal Reserve Board

Shaded areas representNational Bureau of

Economic Research recessions

Mean of Household Debt = 55.8%

1618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284868890929496

1618202224262830323436384042444648505254565860626466687072747678808284868890929496

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Household Debt as a % of GDP

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

Household Debt as a Percentage of GDP

18

(B0410A)

Monthly Data 12/31/1965 - 6/30/2013 (Log Scale)

10-Year Treasury Note Yield Normal Valuation Line 6/30/2013 = 2.30%

( )

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields6/30/2013 = 2.30%

( )

Source: Fair Value Calculation, NDR Source: Federal Reserve Board 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.8 9.0

10.412.013.815.9

1.4 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.8 9.0

10.412.013.815.9

Bullish For 10-Year Treasurys (Yields Too High)

Bearish For 10-Year Treasurys (Yields Too Low)

+1 Standard Deviation

-1 Standard Deviation

6/30/2013 = -0In Basis Points

-210-180-150-120

-90 -60 -30

0 306090

120 150 180 210

-210-180-150-120

-90 -60 -30

0 306090

120 150 180 210

10-Year Treasury Note Yield Normal Valuation Line

10-Year Note Yields Over or Under Valued

Barclays L-T Tsy (post 1979) + S&P L-T Gov. (pre 1979)

Bond Price Index % Gain

Months After After Later < -1 SD > +1 SD

6 -0. 2 1. 4

12 -0. 8 3. 5

18 -1. 8 7. 3

Determinants of Fair Value Sensitivity

Core PCE Price Index 0. 68

6-Month T-Bill Yield 0. 35

Real German Bond Yield 0. 32

Real GDP Trendline Growth 0. 01

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved. . www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at

©

10-Year Treasury Note Yield

Normal Valuation Line

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(DAVIS266)

Daily Data 1/03/2006 - 7/19/2013 (Log Scale)

T-Bond Futures GPA When: Signal Dates 6/06/1984 - 7/19/2013

Gain/ % Bottom Clip is Annum of Time

Above 62 -5. 9 22. 1

Between 38 and 62 4. 8 54. 8

* Below 38 9. 7 23. 1

T-Bond Futures GPA When: Signal Dates 1/03/2006 - 7/19/2013

Gain/ % Bottom Clip is Annum of Time

Above 62 -3. 3 27. 9

Between 38 and 62 -1. 0 50. 6

* Below 38 18. 5 21. 5 Source: Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI) www.csidata.com 102.0 104.2 106.4 108.6 110.9 113.3 115.7 118.1 120.6 123.2 125.8 128.4 131.1 133.9 136.7 139.6 142.6 145.6 148.7 151.8

102.0 104.2 106.4 108.6 110.9 113.3 115.7 118.1 120.6 123.2 125.8 128.4 131.1 133.9 136.7 139.6 142.6 145.6 148.7 151.8

7/19/2013 = 23.3

Excessive Optimism

Extreme Pessimism 152025303540455055606570758085

152025303540455055606570758085

J 2006

M M J S N J 2007

M M J S N J 2008

M M J S N J 2009

M M J S N J 2010

M M J S N J 2011

M M J S N J 2012

M M J S N J 2013

M M J

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures (13-Week Perpetual Contract)

NDR Daily Bond Sentiment Composite Copyright 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All Rights Reserved.

. www.ndr.com/vendorinfo/ . For data vendor disclaimers refer to www.ndr.com/copyright.htmlSee NDR Disclaimer at ©

U.S. Treasury Bond Futures

2020

Asset Allocation

Brian Perott, CFA

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21

Asset Allocation: The FCI Advantage

FCI’s Competitive Advantage: As active portfolio managers, we incorporate historical risk and return characteristics with the current capital market environment to develop a global strategic asset allocation based upon the investment profile for our investors.

FCI’s asset allocation assumptions are forward looking but historically aware. The foundation of our belief is that markets in the long-term are ultimately driven by fundamentals such as:

Valuations Economic activityEarnings growth Monetary & fiscal policyInterest rates Inflation expectations

22

Asset Allocation

The key determinant to investment success

8.20%

6.30%

2.30%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

20 Year Annualized Return as of 12/31/2008

S&P 500

Bonds

Average Investor

20 Year Annualized Return as of 12/31/2012Source: JP Morgan

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Asset Allocation

An Active Continual Process

At FCI asset allocation serves as the foundation on which we build comprehensive solutions for clients.

Our goal is to maximize long term returns while minimizing risk (risk management)

We create investment solutions by employing:Separately Managed AccountsMutual FundsExchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

Clients will receive flexible management focusedon determining optimal strategies considering:

Current capital market assumptionsHistorical risk and return dataEconomic trendsMarket driven opportunistic rebalancing

24

Range of Portfolio Diversification

Risk

Re

turn

Higher Potential

Return

Less Risk More Risk

Lower Potential

Return

50% Equity50% Fixed Income

10% Equity90% Fixed Income

100% Fixed Income

70% Equity30% Fixed Income

100% Equity

60% Equity40% Fixed Income

40% Equity60% Fixed Income

30% Equity70% Fixed Income

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25

Asset Allocation Developments

Federal Reserve contemplated and then publicly discussed a reduction to its Quantitative Easing programs – Tapering?

Bank of Japan “all in” on its bond purchases – Substantial Yen devaluation

China’s restrictive economic policies

Results:Dollar strength against all other major currencies causing poor commodity returns and exacerbating poor international stock returns

Negative returns in interest rate sensitive asset classes

Strong relative returns in the U.S.

26

Current Capital Market Environment

• Sovereign Risk• Increasing Regulations• Currency Wars• Inflation

Wild Cards

NegativesPositives

• Increased Taxes and Regulation• Debt Loads-Particularly Federal, State and Local-

Drag on GDP Growth • Limited Corporate Top-line Revenue Growth• Unfavorable Demographics in

Most Developed Economies• Social Unrest-Middle East, Southern Europe• Slowing Growth In Far East, No Growth in Europe

• Massive Global Monetary Stimulus• Stable Domestic Economic Environment• Improving Housing and Automobile Markets• Strong Balance Sheets-Lots of Cash• Historically Low Interest Rates• Reasonable Equity Valuations

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27

Market Returns: 2nd Quarter and Year-to-Date 2013

As of 6/30/2013

Bonds, Commodities, and Cash

*US dollarsSource: Morningstar

Year-to-Date 2013

2nd Quarter 2013

Value VS. Growth Large Cap vs. Small Cap Domestic vs. International*

Equity Markets

28

2013 Year-to-date Global Equity Returns

Source: Bloomberg. Returns data through 6/30/2013.*Not included in the MSCI Developed or MSCI Emerging Market indices.

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29

Global Equity Markets: Composition

Source: MSCI, IMF, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Share of global market capitalization is based on float adjusted MSCI data. Share of global GDP based on purchasing power parity (PPP) as calculated by the IMF for 2013. Definition of emerging markets is based on MSCI and IMF data sources. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Data as of 6/30/13.

30

S&P 500 Performance:

During Rising and Falling Yields

Source: The Bespoke Report.

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31

Asset Allocation Outlook and Positioning

Higher Equity prices by year end

New 10–year Treasury yield range of 2.2% to 2.8%

Continue to overweight corporate credit (Investment Grade, High Yield, and Floating Rate Bank Notes) within the Fixed Income portion of portfolios

Reduce magnitude of overweight in Emerging Market Equities in favor of U.S. equity markets

Allocations to Unconstrained Fixed Income and Core Plus Equity

32

Asset Allocation Current Positions

Under

weightNeutral

Over

weight

Under

weightNeutral

Over

weight

Equities • Fixed Income •Growth • Short-Term

Investment Grade•

Value • Interm.-Term Investment Grade

Large Cap • Long-Term Investment Grade

Mid Cap • Cash •Small Cap • Commodities •International • Hi-Yield •Emerging Markets

• REITs •

Market Driven Rebalancing (Weighting relative to strategic allocation targets)

As of 6/30/13

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33

The Case For Diversification

Source: Bloomberg, Northern Trust Global Investments. Year to date returns through 06/28/2013.

3434

Equity Markets

Brian Perott, CFA

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35

Equity Outlook

Higher equity prices through year-end

Accommodative Federal Reserve policy

Strength in housing and automobiles

Reasonable valuations

Stable economic environment

Money flows into stocks

Expect “tapering” to have limited impact on equity rally

36

Stock Valuation Measures: S&P 500 Index

Source: (Top) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Price to Earnings is price divided by consensus analyst estimates of earnings per share for the next 12 months. Price to Book is price divided by book value per share. Data post-1992 include intangibles and are provided by Standard & Poor s. Price Cash divided by consensus analyst cash per share for the next months. Price to Sales is calculated as price divided by consensus analyst estimates of sales per share for the next 12 months. PEG Ratio is calculated as NTM P/E divided by NTM earnings growth. Dividend Yield is calculated as consensus analyst estimates of dividends for the next 12 months divided by price. All consensus analyst estimates are provided by FactSet. (Bottom left) Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported

earnings throughout. *Latest reflects data as of 6/30/2013. (Bottom right) Standard & Poor’s, IBES, Moody’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data are as of 6/30/13.

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37

The Aftermath of the Housing Bubble

Source(Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor’s, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes a 20% down payment at prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates; analysis based on median asking rent and median mortgage payment based on asking price. (Bottom right) Census

Bureau, National Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *2Q13 rent and mortgage payment values are J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Data are as of 6/30/13.

38

Mutual Fund Flows

Source: Investment Company Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Data include flows through May 2013 and exclude ETFs except for the bottom left chart. ICI data are subject to periodic revisions. World equityflows are inclusive of emerging market, global equity and regional equity flows. Hybrid flows include asset allocation, balanced fund, flexibleportfolio and mixed income flows.Data are as of 6/30/13.

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39

Deploying Corporate Cash

Source: Standard & Poor’s, FRB, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Securities, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.(Top left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) M&A activity is the quarterly value of deals completed andcapital expenditures are for nonfarm nonfinancial corporate business. (Bottom left) Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan AssetManagement. (Bottom right) Standard & Poor’s, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 6/30/13.

40

S&P 500 Index at Inflection Points

Source: Standard & Poor’s, First Call, Compustat, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.Dividend yield calculated annualized dividend divided b price provided b Comp stat Forward bottom p calculation Oct. 9, 2002Dividend yield is calculated as the annualized dividend rate divided by price, as provided by Compustat. Forward Price to Earnings Ratio is a bottom-up calculation based on the most recent S&P 500 Index price, divided by consensus estimates for earnings in the next 12 months (NTM), and is provided by FactSet Market Aggregates. Returns are cumulative and based on S&P 500 Index price movement only, and do not include the reinvestment of dividends. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of 6/30/13.

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41

S&P 500 Performance:

During Rising and Falling Interest Rates

Source: The Bespoke Report.

42

Core Equity - Current Positioning

• Moved to an underweight position in the Consumer Staples sector –stretched valuations with limited growth

• Also underweight Telecommunications and Utilities – stretched valuations and those sectors are interest rate sensitive

• Neutral for most other economic sectors

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4343

Fixed Income Markets

Gary Cloud, CFA

44

Fixed Income Performance By Sector

-2.32%

-1.92%

-1.55%

-2.51%

-1.96%

-2.44%

-2.11%

-1.49%

-2.67%

-2.01%

-3.00%

-2.50%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

Barclays CapitalAggregate Bonds Total

Return

U.S. Treasury U.S. Agency Credit Mortgage Backed

2Q 2013 YTD Through 6/30/2013

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-1.9%

-2.8%

-3.3%

-3.9%

-3.3%-3.4%

-2.0%

-2.7%

-3.5%

-4.0%

-5.0%

-2.0%

1.0%

BarclaysCorporate

Index

Aaa Aa A Baa

2Q 2013 YTD 2013

Investment Grade Corporate Bond

Performance: 2Q and YTD 2013

-3.5%

-4.0%

-3.3%

-2.8%

-1.9%

-4.0%-4.1%

-3.4%

-5.0%

-2.0%

1.0%

BarclaysCorporate

Index

Industrial Utility Finance

2Q 2013 YTD 2013

46

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6m 2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr

12/ 31/ 2012

3/ 31/ 2013

6/ 30/ 2013

Fixed Income Market Review, Municipal

Yield Curves: (Issues Rated AA-)

>Yields on Longer Maturity Municipals Move Higher During 2Q–‘13

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4747

Questions & Answers

Christopher LaPorta

Managing Client Assets with an Eye Toward Fed Tapering

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