Managing Client Accounts Through Mid-Cycle Expansion

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Managing Client Accounts Through Mid-Cycle Expansion Strategic Advisers LLC

Transcript of Managing Client Accounts Through Mid-Cycle Expansion

Page 1: Managing Client Accounts Through Mid-Cycle Expansion

Managing Client Accounts Through Mid-Cycle ExpansionStrategic Advisers LLC

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Mid-Cycle Expansion Highlights

The mid-cycle phase has typically been a lasting economic expansion

Manufacturing activity, sales and profits, and jobs have usually grown for several years during this phase of the business cycle

Historically, stocks, high-yield bonds and other risk assets have performed well during mid-cycle expansions

Diversification within investment grade bonds may help provide a smoother investment experience during market volatility

Focusing on your long-term goals is vital through expansions and downturns

No matter when you start investing, outcomes can be similar for patient investors with a long-term financial plan

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The Mid-Cycle Phase Has Historically Been a Sustained Period of Economic Growth

In mid-cycle, various economic measures point to a growth state that has often lasted for years.

• Historically, corporate profits grow, manufacturing activity improves, and the job market is robust.

• Banks are also more willing to lend toindividuals and businesses, and interest rates are usually moderate for borrowers, which can further support economic growth.

• While growth rates can fluctuate and market volatility can arise unexpectedly, the mid-cycle phase has historically been a positive environment for investors.

The mid phase of the business cycle reflects a growing economy

For illustrative purposes only. Business cycle above is a hypothetical illustration of a typical business cycle. There is not always a chronological progression in this order, and there have been cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. Please note that there is no uniformity of time among phases, nor is there always a chronological progression in this order. For example, business cycles have varied between one and 10 years in the U.S., and there have been examples when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. January 1950-February 2020. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Avg. Phase Length

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• Growth peaking

• Credit growth strong

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• Policy neutral

• Inventories, sales grow;equilibrium reached

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Historically, Stocks and High Yield Bonds Have Experienced Strong Gains in Mid-Cycle Expansions

U.S. Stocks in other business cycle phases returned 23.% in early cycle, 5% in late cycle and -7% in recession. Based on nominal returns from January 1950 to February 2020 as of 10/31/20. Short-Term Investments reflects a cash investment. Mid-cycle average phase length about 3.5 years. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Asset class total returns are represented by indexes fromthe following sources: Fidelity Investments, Morningstar, and Bloomberg Barclays. Fidelity Investments source: a proprietary analysis of historical asset class performance, which is not indicative of future performance.

A growing economy and rising corporate profits can drive asset class performance.

• Corporate profit growth during this phase of the cycle has normally led to strong returns within stocks and high yield bonds.

• Investment-grade bonds and short-term investments have also experienced gains, but at a slower pace.

• Commodities have normally had modest returns during mid-cycle expansions but may provide diversification benefits if inflation starts to accelerate.

U.S. stocks and high yield bonds have had strong average annual returns in mid-cycle

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During Mid-Cycle, We May Have Higher Exposure to Stocks and High-Yield Bonds

Our deep research on the business cycle helps inform investment decisions.

• Stocks and high-yield bonds have historically performed better than investment-grade bonds during mid-cycle, so we may have higher exposure to those areas during mid-cycle.

• Within stocks, we may emphasize growth and momentum strategies over value or defensive investments, as investors have usually rewarded companies experiencing stronger corporate profit growth during this phase of the cycle.

• On other hand, we may have less exposure to investment-grade bonds, commodities, and TIPS, because they have tended to lag stocks during mid-cycle.

• We believe these adjustments we make to your account will help keep it aligned to your financial goals and possibly lead to stronger long-term performance.

TIPS: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Within client accounts, we normally emphasize those asset classes that have historically experienced strong returns in mid-cycle expansions

Emphasize more: Emphasize less:

Stocks Investment-Grade Bonds

High-Yield Bonds Commodities

TIPS

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Market Fluctuations Are Inevitable, but Stocks Have Risen through Many Meaningful Events

Source: Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg Finance, L.P., 1/1/85–12/31/20. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

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We follow a disciplined process, backed by our rigorous research, to manage client accounts through market volatility.

• Even during economic expansions, unexpected events can drive market volatility.

• We analyze situations as they arise to understand their potential impact to the pace of economic growth and the direction of corporate profits.

• If our research leads us to believe that market volatility is temporary, we typically rebalance client accounts by increasing exposure to stocks, as this may bolster returns when markets recover.

• However, if we feel that the situation may lead to a sustained decline in economic activity or the outlook for corporate profit growth, we seek to reduce risk within client accounts.

• Our research shows that patient and disciplined investors have historically been rewarded by sticking with their financial plans through periods of market volatility.

The market has grown through challenging events

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Disciplined Investors May Benefit from Recoveries That Often Follow Market Declines

* S&P 500 Index average annual total return, 12/31/27–12/31/20. Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The historical example assumes an investment that tracks the returns of a S&P 500® Index and includes dividend reinvestment but does notreflect the impact of taxes, which would lower these figures. There is volatility in the market and a sale at any point in time could result in a gain or loss. Your own investment experience will differ,including the possibility of losing money. Source: Bloomberg L.P., 12/31/27–12/31/20.

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Stocks have usually experienced strong recoveries after notable market declines (from 1927–2020)

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Moving in and out of the market can significantly reduce your portfolio value.

• Some investors may be tempted to abandon their strategy when markets experience volatility.

• However, stock markets have often delivered healthy returns after experiencing a decline, even if the stock market drop was sharp.

• That’s why we believe that disciplined investors who stick with their plan and stay invested may have a better chance of reaching their financialgoals.

• In fact, jumping in and out of your investment plan and trying to time the markets can result in missing out on future gains. Average Annual Total Return*

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Focusing on Your Long-Term Goals Is Vital through Expansions and Downturns

This chart illustrates the cumulative percentage returns in the noted index during periods of economic expansions and recessions. Index returns include reinvestment of capital gains anddividends, if any, but do not reflect any fees or expenses. This chart is not intended to imply any future performance of any investment product. Past performance is no guarantee of futureresults. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Source: Bloomberg, S&P 500 Index total return for 1/1/50–12/31/20; recession and expansion dates defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

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We believe in the power of long-term investing, as stocks have grown significantly over the years.

• As shown on the chart, market returns since 1950 have been positive on average.

• Stocks have experienced tremendous growth over the decades despite several recessions along the way.

• Additionally, the economy has been in expansion for the vast majority over this time span, while recessions have been much lesscommon.

• We believe that investors who stick with theirinvestment plan tend to be rewarded over the long term, because many years of expansion can power investors through occasional recessions.

• That’s why we follow a disciplined investmentapproach in managing your account, to help you reach your long-term financial goal.

Stocks have delivered tremendous returns over the years, as lengthy expansions have often followed recessions

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No Matter When You Start Investing, OutcomesCan Be Similar If You Invest over the Long Term

*Real return is the total return of an investment less the rate of inflation.

For illustrative purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against a loss. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. All indexes are unmanaged. Fidelity proprietary analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations using historical index returns. Sample Portfolio: 42% Domestic Equity,18% Foreign Equity, 35% IG Bonds, 5% Cash. Domestic Equity: Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; Foreign Equity: MSCI ACWI ex USA Index; Investment Grade (IG) Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index; High Yield (HY) Bonds: ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Index. Source: Fidelity Investments, Morningstar, Bloomberg Barclays; data as of 12/31/20.

Our research shows that when you fundyour account matters less with time.

• The difference in median long-term performance can be very small over time, regardless of which phase of the business cycle you start investing in.

• That’s because even if an investor enters themarket during a recession, they are likely toexperience strong stock market returns during the expansion phases of the business cycle.

• Therefore, choosing when to enter the market based on where we believe the U.S. economy resides in the business cycle is unlikely to dramatically affect long-term returns.

• Instead, we believe that remaining disciplined and sticking to a long-term investment plan may be a more reliable way to achieve your financialgoals.

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Diversified portfolios may experience similar returns over the long run, regardless of when an investor initiates their account

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Positive outcomesmay be more likely over

longer-term periods

Patience Has Been Rewarded over the Long Term

Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/31/20. U.S. stocks reflect S&P 500 returns. Days, Months, and Years are represented by daily returns. Years listed are represented by rolling monthly returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index.

Investors who have stayed in the stockmarket longer have been more likely to experience gains.

• Investors who have kept a long-term perspectiveand stayed invested in stocks have had a betterchance to experience positive outcomes.

• For instance, day to day, stocks have had a positive outcome just over half of the time since 1928.

• However, stocks have had positive outcomes more than 97% of the time over 15- and 20-year periods (based on calendar year returns) during the same timeframe.

• We believe that staying invested over the long runcan improve an investor’s chances of a positiveoutcome and help them reach their long-termfinancial goal.

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Percent of time U.S. stocks have been positive over various time periods, 1928–2020

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Key Takeaways

The mid-cycle phase has often been a positive environment for investors as the U.S. economy and corporate profits have historically experienced solid growth.

Based on our research, we typically have higher exposure to stocks and high-yield bonds in client accounts, as they’ve historically delivered strong performance in mid-cycle expansions.

We believe that investorswho stick with theirfinancial plan throughperiods of market volatilityare more likely to achievetheir financial goals.

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Views expressed are as of March 16, 2021, and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. Data is unaudited. Information may not be representative of current or futureholdings.

Neither asset allocation nor diversification ensures a profit or protects against loss.

Keep in mind that investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate over time and you may gain or lose money.Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This presentation does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful. Nothing contained herein constitutes investment,legal, tax, or other advice, nor is it to be relied on in making an investment or other decision. No assumptions should be made regarding the manner in which a client’s account should or would behandled, as appropriate investment strategies will depend upon each client’s investment objectives. None of the information contained herein takes into account the particular investment objectives,restrictions, tax or financial situation, or other needs of any specific client. Certain strategies discussed herein give rise to substantial risks and are not suitable for all investors. The information contained in this material is only as current as the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. The information provided by third parties has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Strategic Advisers LLC makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.

Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The S&P 500® Index is an unmanaged, market capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to present U.S. equityperformance.

Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index of all equity securities of US headquartered companies with readily available price data.

MSCI ACWI (All Country World Index) ex USA Index is a market capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of large and mid-capstocks in developed and emerging markets, excluding the United States.

Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based, market value-weighted benchmark that measures the performance of the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-ratetaxable bond market. Sectors in the index include Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, MBS (agency fixed-rate and hybrid ARM pass-throughs), ABS, and CMBS.

ICE BofA US High Yield Index is a market capitalization–weighted index of US dollar denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market. Qualifying securities must have a below investment grade rating (based on an average of Moody’s, S&P and Fitch). The country of risk of qualifying issuers must be an FX-G10 member, a Western European nation, or a territory of the US or a Western European nation. The FX-G10 includes all Euro members, the US, Japan, the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway and Sweden. In addition, qualifying securities must have at least one year remaining to final maturity, a fixed coupon schedule and at least $100 million in outstanding face value. Defaulted securities are excluded.

Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments.

In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do nothave a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible. Interest rate increases can cause the price of a debt security to decrease.Increase in real interest rates can cause the price of inflation-protected debt securities to decrease. Interest payments on inflation-protected debt securities can be unpredictable. High-yield/non-investment-grade bonds involve greater price volatility and risk of default than investment-grade bonds.

The commodities industry can be significantly affected by commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

This material may not be reproduced or redistributed without the express written permission of Strategic Advisers LLC.

Investment management services provided for a fee through Fidelity Personal and Workplace Advisors LLC (FPWA), a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company. Discretionaryportfolio management provided by its affiliate, Strategic Advisers LLC, a registered investment adviser. These services are provided for a fee.

Brokerage services provided by Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC (FBS), and custodial and related services provided by National Financial Services LLC (NFS), each a member NYSE and SIPC.

FPWA, Strategic Advisers, FBS, and NFS are Fidelity Investments companies.

Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE and SIPC, 900 Salem Street, Smithfield, RI 02917

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