Man-made global warming: Is it the truth?

Bienvenido “Nonoy” Oplas, Jr.

Presented at the Rotary Club of Makati Dasmarinas,

RID 3830, October 21, 2009, Rockwell Club, Makati.

Outline of Presentation

Introduction

1. Anthropogenic global warming (AGW) and Greenhouse effect

2. UN IPCC Projections

3. Actual recent global temperature

4. Longer term global temperature

5. Here comes the Sun

6. Melting Arctic and Antarctica ice?

7. Future global temperature

8. Conclusions

Introduction

The Four-Way Test

Of the things we think, say or do

1. Is it the TRUTH?

2. Is it FAIR to all concerned?

3. Will it build GOODWILL and BETTER FRIENDSHIPS?

4. Will it be BENEFICIAL to all concerned?

2nd International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC), Marriot NY Marquis hotel, NYCMarch 8-10, 2009

With the Pres. of Czech Rep., Vaclav Klaus

With Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (2nd from left)

IPCC: 8 out of 9 factors are anthropogenic, only 1 factor is natural

2. UN IPCC Predictions

IPCC: Up to 6.4 C temp. by 2100, up to 0.59 meters sea level

The Hockey Stick graph embraced by the IPCC

3. Actual Recent TemperaturesCarbon Dioxide Increasing BUTWorld Temperature Falling!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Correlation_Last_Decade.pdf

From Jan.2002 to Sept. 2009, 0.22 CSource: http://www.friendsofscience.org/

Satellite data, U. of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH)up to Sept. 2009 (source: www.climate4you.com)

Global Temp., 5 sources: 2 satellite (UAH & RSS), 3 surface stations (Hadley CRUT, NCDC, GISS)

Sunspot no. as of Oct. 20 ‘09

Source:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/widget/

4. Longer term global temperatures Medieval period warmer than today (source: www.drroyspencer.com)

NASA, global ave. temp, as of 05.19.08(http://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/index.cfm#IceMass) “The time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature record from 1850 to 2008”

Temperatures (USA) 60 yr Cycle & CO2 1895 to 2008

  - Official data - Graph by JD’Aleo Sept 2008 Circulated by Piers Corbyn www.weatheraction.com

World Temp peak 2002/3

5. Here comes the Sun

From Dr. Willie Soon, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Boston

The Sun is more likely the dominant driverof the recorded Arctic temperature variations

NASA: cosmic rays up 19% -- new record high could lead to coolinghttp://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/29/nasa-cosmic-rays-up-19-since-last-peak-new-record-high/

6. Melting Arctic and Antarctica ice?a. Antarctica: source -- Marco Tedesco and Andrew Monaghan, Geophysical Research Letters

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/antarcticas-ice-story-has-been-put-on-ice/#more-11570

b. Arctic ice and temp.Source: International Arctic Research Center (IARC), Univ. of Alaska Fairbanks (UAF). http://icecap.us/images/uploads/RECENT_RESULTS.pdf

Decline in Arctic ice is not “unprecedented” and new. there were multi-decadal cycles of thick-thin-thick-thin ice cover in the past, that coincide with climate cycles in surface air temperature.

Current thinner layer of ice in the Arctic compared to 1981-2000 average is part of the cycle. The 2009 level shows the ice is growing again with the re-emergence of 1st year and 2nd year old ice. The claim of “disappearing” ice, therefore, is not true.

Oct. 13, 2009: 20% of all USA covered by snow already

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/14/early-start-to-winter-20-of-usa-is-covered-in-snow-already/

7. Future global temp. projections(source here: Dr. Fred Goldberg, Royal Inst of Tech., Stockholm)

(source: Dr. Don Easterbrook, Geology, Western Washington U.)

TREND ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE DATA – suggests cooling

Craig Loehle, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Inc. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/20/study-model-in-good-agreement-with-satellite-temperature-data-suggest-cooling/#more-11900

Where will world temperatures go? Forecast issued New York 10 March 2009 extended June 2009

CO2 - No effect

Solar -Lunar magnetic modulation – Minimum around 2030-32 probably similar to late 1970s levels.

Magnetic Hale cycle The 22yr peaks of world temps are at Odd max + 2 years (ie around 2002/03). The Temp minima are at Even max plus 2 (for cycle 24, max = 2013+2=2015). At such times Geomagnetic activity & WORLD temperatures are OPOSITELY correlated. So although there are some early forecasts of generally low activity in Solar cycle 24 (eg SSN about 85) these will NOT have a significant reducing effect on world temperatures. The important thing will be more detail especially of linkage and weather EVENTS and the next Odd cycle.

‘Slow’ Sun-Earth changes such as a ‘Maunder’ type ‘little ice age ’ minimum. This is a serious possibility inferred by recent lack of solar activity but yet neither ruled out nor in. For such the next ODD cycle (cycle 25, commencing around 2019 peak 2024 end 2030) is critical.

CONCLUSION) General cooling to 2030 (& prob beyond) to 1970 levels or below. Staying below recent (2002) levels for at least 100 years. The possibility of getting much colder by 2040 to below 1910 levels is not ruled out and will be estimated with further theoretical research and solar observation.

8. Conclusions Global warming as predicted by the UN IPCC

since 2001, is NOT happening. It’s NOT the truth. Rather, global cooling is upon us now.

Compared to 30 years ago in 1979, the Earth is warmer by about 0.4 C. But compared to 7 years ago in 2002, the Earth is cooler now by 0.22 C.

Man-made CO2 emission is NOT the main driver of climate change or cycle (warming-cooling-warming-cooling…). It is the SUN.

AGW therefore, remains a hypothesis, an untested theory. The facts presented were either discredited, or needed further tests.

Conclusions

CO2 is not a pollutant or an evil gas. It is the gas of life. The gas that humans exhale, that plants use for photosynthesis.

Scientific debates are NOT over yet. There is NO scientific consensus yet.

Since there is NO consensus, there should be NO global coercion in energy and environmental policies.

Having clean air, clean water, clean environment, should be pursued for their own sake. Not say “to save the planet” because the planet is not in danger.

Suggested readings and websites:

http://wattsupwiththat.com http://climatedepot.com http://scienceandpublicpolicy.

org/

http://heartland.org www.icecap.us www.drroyspencer.com www.davidarchibald.info www.weatheraction.com www.co2science.org www.climate4you.com

Thank You!

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