#MALG15 Keynote Address Justin Urquhart Stewart - Slideset
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Transcript of #MALG15 Keynote Address Justin Urquhart Stewart - Slideset
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NOVEMBER 2015
TWITTER @USTEWART WWW.7IM.CO.UK
ALL IS FAIR IN LOVE & WAR
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GOOD DEBT – Investing For The Future
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BAD DEBT - All Washed Up!
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DEBT • Personal – individuals & family
• Mortgages & Investment
• Making Up Cashflow
• Corporate – from SMEs to Leviathans • Longer Term Equity & Bond Investment
• Shorter Term Private Equity & Venture Capital
• Government • Investment -Infrastructure
• Cashflow – trying to balance the books
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SOMEONE CHANGED THE RULES • Demographics
• Working Population & Employment
• Interest rates
• Government Influence & Employment
• Private & Company Employment
• Pensions!
BUT NOBODY TOLD US!
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Now Playing Catch-Up
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A STORM WARNING?
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A KEY MOMENT OF ECONOMIC CHANGE
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UNPRECEDENTED STIMULI
• Low Rates
• Infrastructure Spending
• Quantitative Easing
• Commodity Price falls
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AFTER THE STIMULANTS....
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BIG IMBALANCES
• Government debt and deficits
• Consumer debt
• Trade balances
• Income distribution
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AFTER THE “NOUGHTIES”-THE TINY TEENS
• Low Growth
• Low Inflation
• Low Interest Rates
• Low Returns
Now make some Money!
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OIL PRICES Oil price move is still happening!
59% fall
22% fall
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GDP GROWTH STILL POSITIVE
AVERAGE GLOBAL GROWTH CLOSE TO STATIC BUT CHANGES IN REGIONAL GROWTH RATES NOTABLE.
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UNEMPLOYMENT IS FALLING
GREEN – EUROPEAN, RED - UNITED STATES, YELLOW - UNITED KINGDOM
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CONSUMER CONFIDENCE & Savings
US, EUROZONE, UK AND JAPAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE - 30 YEARS. GREY AREAS MARK RECESSIONS – EZ MEASUREMENT AGAINST GERMANY. GREEN – US AND UK HOUSEHOLD SAVINGS RATIO’S
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INTEREST RATES START TO RISE
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RATES – LOWER FOR LONGER
LHS – BASE RATES RHS 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELDS, US (RED) JAPAN (GREEN), UK ORANGE, GERMANY (PINK) CANADA (BLUE) GLOBAL YIELDS GRADUALLY INCREASING.
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UK & US INTEREST RATE EXPECTATIONS
US BASE RATES (GREEN) EXPECETED TO BE AT 2% IN SEPTEMBER 2018 SOURCE BLOOMBERG
UK BASE RATES (ORANGE) EXPECTED TO BE AT 2% IN SEPTEMBER 2019
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EFFECTS OF RISING RATES
• MORTGAGES
• Cost – not just a 0.25% effect
• Qualification
• Inability to Roll Over
• Pension Values (Annuity Values)
• Savings Values
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THE WORLD BENEFITS Countries who export to the US
Country % of exports to US China 16.7% Japan 17.8% South Korea 10.7% Germany 7.9% France 6.9% UK 10.5%
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THE SOUFFLE RISES – at last!
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EU LEVEL PLAYING FIELD.....
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SOURCE: TWITTER - @MARK_WILLEM5
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WATCH IT SHORTY!
SOURCE: NEWEUROPE.EU/EPA
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CHINA IN TRANSITION
SOURCE: MRB
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Services matter more than manufacturing and construction ……and are growing far faster
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THE AGONY & THE ECSTASY
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“GREAT ECONOMY -PITY ABOUT THE POLITICIANS”
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UK
Managing The Debt!
Fixing the banking system Tax reform?
2 Unions No Power or Transport strategy
World’s 5th - 8th -10th
?
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KRANKIES – THE LOVECHILD?
SOURCE: NEWEUROPE.EU/EPA
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Real wages ticking up
RHS - GREEN – WAGE INFLATION V RED UK CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION LIVING STANDARDS STARTING TO PICK UP AT LAST?
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GOVERNMENT DEFICIT
SOURCE: ONS
UK Govt’ forecast to borrow £70bn in 2015/2016
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SOURCE: BANK OF ENGLAND
THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD
INFLATION LIKELY TO STAY LOW IN THE MID-TERM
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UK PMIs
SOURCE:
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KEYS TO ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE
INEXPERIENCED POLITICIANS
INEXPERIENCED CIVIL SERVICE
CYNICAL MEDIA
HOBBLED BANKING
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UK POSITIVE ISSUES • “Re-shoring” – Noodles & Antler • Record Car production • Sheffield Steel – 40 year peak • Non EU exports now higher than EU • Rice Cookers to Asia! • Financial/Professional trade exports £55bn • Over half million business start ups 550,000 • New Financing structures • Record Employment
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NOW - SOME RADICAL COMMON SENSE • Tax Reform
• NI & SME • Stamp Duty – transactions & property • Sugar & Fat Tax
• Finance Education • For All!
• Pension Reform • Auto E • Education
• Investment Reform • New Funding schemes • Housing Free & Leasehold
• Infrastructure
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EDUCATION –What…..
• MORTGAGES
• Cost – not just a 0.25% effect
• Qualification
• Inability to Roll Over
• Pension Values (Annuity Values)
• Savings Values
• Financial Planning
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EDUCATION – Who….. • Government
• HMT
• Politicians
• Companies of all sizes
• The Population • Schools & Universities
• Families
• Employees
• Pensioners
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REBUILDING ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE
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KEY WORD FOR ECONOMY - CONFIDENCE
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YOUR OWN PLANNING
Accountants
Lawyers
Insurance
Mortgage Providers
Banks
Trustees
Investment
Client Your Clients
Your Planning
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FORWARD FINANCIAL HEADLIGHTS
Cash flow – income and expenditure § Now § Long term future
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SO WHAT DO YOU DO? Think broader family assets and liabilities • Managing family assets
Improve Investment Discipline • Reducing Costs • Better than average Returns • Reducing Risks • Lower Volatility • Regular financial planning
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FAMILY BALANCE SHEET
House
Car Pension
Life assurance
ISAs
Shares & National Savings
Cash
Mortgage
Credit Cards Loans
ASSETS LIABILITIES
NET BALANCE £
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EDUCATING US ABOUT OUR FINANCES
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THE ALTERNATIVE?
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HOW MUCH DO I NEED?
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NOVEMBER 2015
TWITTER @USTEWART WWW.7IM.CO.UK
MONEY ADVICE LIAISON GROUP
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TWITTER @USTEWART WWW.7IM.CO.UK
THANK YOU