MALACCA STRAITS

Name: Poon Tsz Ha, Wendy Fu, Vivian

TF Tse

Presentation Outline Background of the project Methodology of the project Data Analysis Recommendations

Purpose Demonstrate ERA – risk management

as a viable framework for managing land- & sea-based sources of marine pollution in subregional sea areas

Packaging the approach, methods & experience for the similar environmental management in E Asian region

MALACCA STRAITS

Background Information

Unique ecological system High productivity & diversity Rich mix of fauna & flora Intricate hydrodynamics Complex interactions within &

between water body & land-based activities

Geography Natural channel

between Indian & Pacific Ocean

Bounded by 3 littoral States

2nd busiest shipping lane in the world (300 vessels/day) Source:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Malacca

Geography Euryhaline condition

Rich nutrient level Shelter from strong currents & wave

action High & uniform temperature Adequate tidal flushing

High biological productivity & diversity Rich mix of fauna and flora from Indian &

Pacific Ocean

Natural biological resources Mangrove: 80% at Indonesian side Seagrass bed: patchy and abundant

Nursery grounds for many fish species Shows relationship between availability of

habitats, fish stocks & sustainable yield Corals: patchy but not very abundant

Natural biological resources Exploited along both coasts of the

Strait Fisheries for demersal & pelagic

species: NW half of the Strait Mangrove removal for timber &

aquaculture : entire length Extensive aquaculture: cause potential

problem to environment through release of organic waste & chemicals

Population & Employment Indonesia: 11m; predominant on

agriculture & fisheries, derivative industries based on natural resources

Malaysia: 10m; mix of agriculture, fisheries, heavy & light manufacturing industries

Singapore: 3m; manufacturing & commercial activities

River system Similar numbers of river

catchments on Indonesian & Malaysian coasts

Similar amount of rainfall Similar volume (90million m3)of

outflows & runoffs from both coasts (presumption)

Sewage facilities & Quality of inputs

Area Sewage facility Quality of inputs

Indonesia very limited agricultural

Malaysia limited industrial

Singapore very complete industrial

Impacts to the Strait Increase of total suspended solids in the

water column & sedimentation Mangrove removal (esp. NW half of Strait)

increase erosion River load Agricultural runoff Aquaculture

O2 depletion, light attenuation & physical cover impacts on mangroves, seagrass beds & corals

Impacts to the Strait Volume: 1012 m3 Considerable dilution & removal of

contaminant loads by flushing Dominant surface movement: SE

to NW

Temperature and its impacts Constant high temperature (26 –

30 。C) Exposure side: rate of

biodegradation contaminants Effect side: rate of contaminant High level of metabolism (Ecotoxicological effect)

Rainfall and its impacts High intensity but Short duration Considerable contamination of dissolved

and particulate materials from storm water runoff

Reduce in salinity Osmotic stress in marine species contaminant exposure

Reduce in salinity Alter bioavailability of many contaminant (e.g. Cd fraction of dissolved metal exits as free ions)

MALACCA STRAITS

Methodology

Target Human health

Fish / seafood consumption Contamination of fish / seafood by metals,

pesticides & hydrocarbon Habitat

Mangroves, peat swamps, seagrass beds, coral reefs, soft-bottom habitats

Species Commercial & non-commercial marine

species

Addressing the questions Evidence for problems with human

health, habitats & species (incl. commercial fish stocks)

Problems caused to human health, habitats & species by conditions exist now or in the future

Identify assessment & measurement Endpoint

Risk = f(H)(E)Where: H = Potential harm E = Likelihood of exposure to

potential harm

2 stages of risk assessment Initial risk assessment Refine risk assessment

Initial risk assessment Screening mechanism: identify priority

environmental concern on a Strait-wide basis, related data gaps & uncertainties

Objective: Utilize available information on sources,

exposure & effect of land- & sea-based activities, and pollution derived therefrom on living & non-living resources

Program outline for initial risk assessment Preparation of draft report

Major polluting sources & activities, and their effects on living & non-living environment

Delineation of the significant indicators of ecological, human health & social risk from pollutive land- & sea-based activities

Spatial & temporal scales of assessment

Program outline for initial risk assessment

1. Preparation of draft report (cont) Interaction between land- & sea-

based activities and interactions with living & non-living resources in & along the Straits

Combine effects of multiple & diverse stress on ecology

Systematic effect of a catastrophic event, e.g. oil / dangerous chemicals spillage by shipping accident

Program outline for initial risk assessment

2. Identify data gaps & uncertainties that need comprehensive risk characterization

3. Formulation of action plan for comprehensive risk assessment Utilize available expertise & resources to develop risk management program for the subregion

Refine risk assessment The Strait as a whole

The Strait as a single compartment and estimate a single average exposure concentration for the entire Strait)

Selected contaminants, risk to local areas within the Strait Local exposure concentration in the

vicinity of specific human activities or natural resources

Refine risk assessment Complete refined risk assessment

of land- & sea-based sources of pollution & their effects on living & non-living resources

Using results of initial risk assessment & updated information from the 3 littoral states to produce a comprehensive document on ERA

Program outline for refined risk assessment

1. Review & analyze available data provided, update and/or verify the methodologies, conclusions & recommendation of initial risk assessment

2. Model development & demonstration of series of scenarios. Analysis of scenarios

3. Test techniques for improving uncertainty analyses and report the results

Others Uncertainty assessment

Qualitative & quantitative method Society risk

Environmental degradation & its impact to the economy

Risk-benefit analysis Prioritize risk assessment in the

society, as a key in risk management

Consideration Relation between potential causes

of problems for human health and the environment

Consequences in the Strait Analysis of risk pathways: high

economic importance, incl. social, national, governmental commercial interests

Consideration Sources of hazards related to economic Knock-on effects to economy by

pollution Influence judgment about priorities for

action Direct risk assessment Weigh benefits to human health and the environment with costs to economy Influence management actions taken

MALACCA STRAITS

Risk Assessment

Approaches of risk assessment Retrospective risk assessment Prospective risk assessment

Retrospective risk assessment

Key ingredients Identifying targets and endpoints

precisely Identifying significant adverse changes

Evidences to show the problems Identifying possible causes of the changes

Identifying possible consequences of the changes for ecosystems and human welfare

Key ingredients In this paper: Evidences of decline on the Straits

Habitats Biodiversity

Attributed causes Based on expert judgment and weight of

evidence rather than experimental sciences

Possible consequences

Habitat loss and consequences

Habitat Areal extent

in quantity

in quality

Consequences

Ecological

Economic

Mangroves L L M *** **Peat swamps

L L NI *** **

Coral reefs S NI M ** *Seagrass beds

M NI M ** *

Soft bottoms L No M ** **

Habitats - Mangroves Evidences of decline

Sumatra (Indonesia): loss 24% of mangrove coverage in 7 years (1987-1993)

Malaysia: loss 17% of mangrove coverage in 2 decades (1965-1985)

Singapore: loss approximately 81% of mangrove coverage in the last 2 decades

Habitats - Mangroves Attribute causes

Clearance for brackish water ponds Over-exploitation for timber and charcoal Clearance for development Sedimentation and pollution

Consequences Reduced protection from coastal erosion and

natural disaster Reduced nursery grounds for commercial and

non-commercial fish and invertebrates Loss of habitat for endangered species Economic loss for the timber industry

Habitat: Peat swamp forests Evidences of decline

Sumatra (Indonesia): 7.3-9.3 million hectares to 3.6 million hectares (50% reduction)

West coast of Peninsular Malaysia: 299,145 hectares (77% of this area are indicated as “disturbed and logged-over”)

Habitat: Peat swamp forests

Attribute causes Logging of commercially valuable

tree species Land conversion to rice, palm and

coconut plantations Consequences

Loss of biodiversity Similar to the consequences of the

loss of mangrove coverage

Habitat: Coral reefs Evidences of decline

No data on the total area of coral reefs in the Straits and the loss of coral reef area

Indonesia: Poor condition: 42%; Fair condition: 29%;

Good condition: 24%; Excellent condition: 5% Malaysia:

Most of the coral reefs are rated as fair condition

Singapore: Among the most stressed in Asia coral reef

Habitat: Coral reefs Attributed causes

Fishing damage Pollution e.g. metals, oil spills and pesticides Massive land reclamation in Singapore

Consequences Reduced in physical protection of shorelines Loss of biodiversity Reduced in fishery production Loss of tourist attraction

Habitat: Seagrass beds Evidences of decline

No quantitative data on areal coverage or its loss

Singapore: Extensive seagrass beds Isolated patches

50 known seagrass species Indonesia:12 species West coast of Peninsular Malaysia: 9 species Singapore: 9 species decline to 7

species(1990s)

Habitat: Seagrass beds Attributed causes

Destruction due to the conversion to coastal aquaculture

Natural disaster e.g. storm and disease Deposits of mining spoils and tailings Excessive sediments due to deforestation Pollution

Consequences Loss of buffering zone from wave action Reduced stabilization of sediment Reduced in biodiversity Loss of harvestable invertebrates, macroalgae and

grass loss of nursery grounds for fishes

Habitat: Soft-bottom habitats Evidences of decline

Straits: covered by sandy and muddy bottom extensively

* Quality in supporting species An examination of effects on female

reproductive systems in gastropods in terms of percent female imposex

Negative correlations between females with imposex and distance to the nearest shipping route

Habitat: Soft-bottom habitats

Attributed causes Physical disruption by trawling Contamination of sediments from pollutants

Consequences Loss of tourism attraction e.g. sandy beach

Decline for fisheries production

Biodiversity Assessment endpoint: population

density and species diversity

Biodiversity Evidence of decline on on-commercial

species Population density: Two indigenous

fish species (Alosa toil and Lactarius lacarius) are getting rare in Singapore

Species diversity: 52 species of fish, 13 species of coral and anemones, 12 specie of crustaceans – extinct; >50 other species – threatened in Singapore

Biodiversity The increasing deterioration of

environmental conditions in the Straits and increasing human activities result in changes of species composition (disappearance of other species and the increasing number of endangered species)

Biodiversity Attributed causes

Loss of major habitats Contamination

Consequences Loss of tourist attraction Increase in instability of the

ecosystem

Biodiversity Evidences of decline on commercial

species: Indonesia: Decline in catch-per-

unit-effort (CPUE) Malaysia: fall in total catch and

catch rate

Biodiversity Attribute causes

Over-fishing Losses of nursery grounds Pollution

Consequences Economic loss Reduction of fish species

Prospective risk assessment

Prospective risk assessment Identify the likely problems for harm

to ecological Scientific and objective measurement

Risk quotient Risk quotient

Provide indices of risk for further detailed analyses

Risk Quotient (RQ) Measurement

RQ = PEC / PNEC RQ = MEC / STD

Certain substances that occur naturally i.e. background concentrations BQ = MEC / background

concentration

Uncertainty analysis Carried out for the prospective risk assessment

to the varying levels of sophistication PNECs and STDs

Depend on the reliability of the ecotoxicological and toxicological data

MECs Depend on the reliability of sampling and

analytical techniques PECs

Depend on the assumptions of the models used in making predictions and the reliability of input data

Prospective risk assessment

In this paper Estimate the likelihood of adverse

effects from environmental conditions within the Straits

By comparing measured environmental concentrations (MECs) and predicted environmental concentrations (PECs)

Likely problems for harm to ecological

Various heavy metals in the water and sediment

Pesticides in the water and sediment

Problems arising from suspended solids

Concentration of heavy metals in water

Metal Highest mean MEC

RQ (table 7-3)

RQ (Danish std)

BQ(MEC/BV)

As 8 0.08 / 8

Cd 114 11 46 28500

Cr 62 0.12 / 413

Cu 34 0.34 11.7 567

Hg 68 68 227 136000

Pb 108 1 19 108000

Concentration of heavy metals in water RQ analysis

RQ > 1 = High risk Metals of Pb, Hg, Cd and Cu >1 Results of BQ is consistent with RQ

Concentration of heavy metals in waterUncertainty analysis Variability among standards

Purpose for use Variability in MECs

Values above or below the critical value (Log RQ = 0)

Data of RQ have to be transformed and presented as mean log value

Log RQs for all metal > 0

Concentration of heavy metals in water

West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia

Klang River

Metal

Highest mean PEC

RQ (Danish std)

Highest mean PEC

RQ (Danish std)

Zn 0.334 0.004 / /

Cu 2.6 0.9 25.8 9.9

Hg 0.0007 0.0002 / /

Pb 0.404 0.007 0.089 0.016

Concentration of heavy metals in water Klang River

Greatest density of manufacturing industry along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia

Heavy Metal contamination in coastal waters was limited to certain areas close to industrial sites and estuaries

Concentration of heavy metals in sediments No general accepted sediment quality

standards RQ estimation

Based on water quality Csed = (Cw X Ksw) / r Critical concentration of metal in sediment

= (concentration of metal in water X solids-water partition coefficient) / empirically derived concentration ratio between suspended matter

Concentration of heavy metals in sediments

MetalsCd RQ (table 7-3) RQ (Danish std)

As 0.0400

Cd 0.0060 0.03

Cr 0.0007 0.36

Cu 0.0700 2.40

Ni 2.10

Pb 0.0030 0.06

Zn 0.07

Concentration of heavy metals in sediments Lack of concordance between water

column and sediment data The water and sediment samples were

taken from different sites Different metals were included in the 2

types of analysis Periodically dredged of sediment Dissolved and particle-bound form of

sediments

Heavy metals and human health RQ = daily metal intake / tolerable daily

intake (TDI) Daily metal intake = daily intake X

metal content of the intake Level of concern (Action level) =

Tolerable daily intake / Seafood consumption

Likely problems for harm to ecology and human

Heavy metals and human health

Uncertainty analysis Uncertainty in tolerable daily

intakes TDIs standard varies between

countries Dermal exposure to metal e.g.

bathing

Conclusion

Retrospective Risk Assessment Decline in mangroves, peat swamp

forests, coral reefs, seagrass beds and soft bottom habitats

Mainly caused by habitat destruction such as coral reef were affected by increased sediment loads

Reduction in fish stocks due to overfishing Pollution was probably a contributory

factor

Prospective Risk Assessment Various heavy metals were found in

water column and sediment, pesticides TBT or nutrients were not identified

Human Health Prospective Risk Assessment

No indication that health problems might arise from oil and hydrocarbon exposure

Oil and Hydrocarbon PollutionLong term exposure – land based industrial activities

Short-term exposure – accident was calculated on the basis of historical experience

MALACCA STRAITS

Recommendations

RecommendationsGeneral Recommendations

Standards used in future risk assessment should be agreed by all littoral States

E.g. definition of ecological targets on both scientific and societal issues

E.g. definition of thresholds (standards and PNECs)

General Recommendations

Regional monitoring programs should be available for future risk assessments

Exposure models should be developed for future risk assessment.

Needs in human health risk assessment to reduce the uncertainties with both threshold effect values and exposure information

Recommendations to Risk Management agreement on the approach

between littoral States to mangrove clearance

controlling fishing intensity food contamination monitoring from

metals and pesticides should be considered

Recommendations to Risk Management prevention of the exposure on the

most contaminated beaches to avoid sewage infection

Management strategies should be more proactive to reduce the potential for contact between high risk vessels and vulnerable habitats

Risk Management ActionsRetrospective Assessment

The loss of mangroves, peat swamps and seagrass beds

The declining fishing Protection of other species

Risk Management Actions

Prospective Analysis Immediate action on RQs greater

than 1000 Food contamination from metals

and pesticides deserves serious attention