Chris McMahon

chris.mcmahon@bris.ac.uk, 20 November 2014

Prepare for Change - The Future of Work: Manufacturing

Three scenarios for Bristol in 2034

Subject: How might manufacturing reorganise due to new

technologies and the effects on employment, workplaces and

their locations.

Approach: to present three scenarios for the way manufacturing

might develop in Bristol over the next 20 years, told by someone

looking back and reflecting in the year 2035.

Scenario 1 – Business As Usual?

The reduction in the oil price in 2014 was short-lived, and from

the middle of 2015 the price of oil moved past $100/barrel as

world growth recovered.

The oil price, together with Obama’s agreement with Xi Jinping

to restrict carbon emissions, led to great pressures to achieve

improvements in air and road transport efficiencies to which

Bristol’s industries were well-placed to respond, thanks to new

manufacturing technologies and systems.

New computer-based manufacturing systems allowed

manufacturing to flourish in other respects, and again Bristol’s

industries were well placed to respond.

Excerpt from Metal Additive Manufacturing, produced by

University of Sheffield, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYs-

Av_HbWs

http://www.metal-am.com/articles/002733.htmlhttp://d2n4wb9orp1vta.cloudfront.net/resources/images/cdn/cms/am1208_geaviation_1.jpg

New metal additive manufacturing technologies revolutionised

aerospace and other manufacture and together with composite

materials allowed the next generation of ultra-light weight aircraft

to be developed

Wikipedia

The growing demand from China and India meant that Europe’s

aircraft industry was busier than ever before

http://www.airbus.com/fileadmin/media_gallery/photogallery/big/800x600_1341561286_Concept_Plane_Hong_Kong.jpg

The new technologies also prompted development of small

enterprises through ‘maker’ centres

http://kwmc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/IMAG0155-1006x250.jpg

http://3d.alexgibson.net/

Expertise in composites and in electric motor technologies led to a

spin-out from Bristol University developing an ultra-low energy

consumption electric vehicle

While advanced composites and a streamlined body were also

incorporated in a radical design from Bristol's caravan makers

http://cdn.csuk-solutions.net/uploads/73/5628446-knaus-tabberts-concept-van-stars-in-dusseldorf-1.jpg

Robots were ever more widely used, in manufacturing, but also in

maintenance, in healthcare and increasingly in the home

http://www.bristol.ac.uk/media-library/sites/news/2014/may/easyjetdrone-article.jpg

http://s3files.core77.com/blog/spycye_small1.jpghttp://i.ytimg.com/vi/n-rBITMCGqM/0.jpg

http://www.brl.ac.uk/images/assisted%20living%20banner.jpg

Scenario 2 – Decline or Collapse?

The reduction in the oil price in 2014 led to failure of a number of

shale oil companies which combined with unwinding of record

speculative bets on oil prices exacerbated debt-related problems

in the financial sector and wider economy.

This further contributed to poor growth in East Asia,

accompanied by deflation, which led to growing unemployment

and civil unrest in China, Korea and Japan.

The unrest had knock-on effects in Europe both in reduced

exports of manufactured goods and disruption to supply chains

of key economic goods.

The faltering recovery in Europe was halted, destroying plans for

investment in high-tech industries

Scenario 2 – Decline or Collapse

Low oil prices in 2014 led to the failure of many US ‘tight oil’

companies, and tension with Russia and renewed conflict in the

Middle East led in the late teens to an oil and gas supply crisis.

Oil was rationed in European countries, leading to a crisis in the

car industry. Worries about road transport led to regular panic

buying. The collapse of many airlines led to a large reduction in

new aircraft orders.

Cracks in ageing British nuclear reactors caused them to be shut

down, leading to regular winter power cuts rendering ‘smart’

technologies inoperable.

Business failures led to further economic turmoil and a second

great depression.

Panic buying, deserted streets

http://gb.fotolibra.com/images/previews/604436-park-street-bristol.jpeghttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oPzh3b1uKjg/T3RdSG8SBPI/AAAAAAAACpg/O3JZqKJcg2M/s1600/1049602.jpg

Panic buying

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2010/12/05/article-1335812-0C51DA1D000005DC-22_964x550.jpg

Airline failures led to a collapse in new-build sales; sales of

capital equipment also declined precipitously

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-sbAxY8Je_cM/TXVDqrtIV7I/AAAAAAAAACo/xZ2mOVrR0pE/s1600/airbus.jpg

Nuclear power in crisis

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/06/20/article-2005977-0CA4C4F600000578-245_468x371.jpg

http://www.imeche.org/images/default-source/pe-news-width-454/8118_36cf0db149002263df88f337bf7d596a_454x250.jpg

Interruptions in energy supply made technologies dependent

on networked devices useless

http://www.rinnovabili.it/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/3Bristol.jpg

http://www.architecturecentre.co.uk/assets/images/exhibition_image_pairs/smartcity%20full.jpg

Scenario 3 – Managed Transition

The severe flooding in the winter of 2016-17 led to a belated call

for action on climate. That and the mini-oil crisis of 2019 led to

public demands for a swift transition away from a fossil fuel

based economy.

The changes manifested themselves in four ways:

• A rapid move away from oil-based transport except for

essential services – rail, bus, agriculture and some truck

• Re-purposing of industries

• Emphasis on product-service-systems

• Emphasis on the circular economy, salvage, use of waste

Although painful in the short term, employment increased and

the population found itself leaner and fitter

The aerospace industry used its ‘lightweight structures’

skills on an ultra-lightweight electric bus

http://ecofriend.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/autotram_inztl.jpg

Many cities adopted personal rapid transit systems,

based on Bristol’s Ultra PRT . . .

Low energy building materials based on Bath University

research led to a new industry

Source: Euro-cell project website

Servitisation

Product-service

systems - combinations

of products and

services, with the

emphasis on “sale of

use” rather than “sale of

product”

Neighbor doorknob hanger.

Photo Credit: Candy Chang.Car sharing - Zipcars in Bristol

Servitisation; sharing economy

The circular economy

http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/

Circular economy: reclamation, recycling

Wind turbines from scrap

http://cdn.instructables.com/FT1/49A1/GR6ZJMCJ/FT149A1GR6ZJMCJ.LARGE.jpg

https://www.engineeringforchange.org/news/images/May-2011/turbine-1.jpg

Discussion

Which of these scenarios do you think is closest to the truth?

What are the implications for us personally and for those

planning for our communities?

Before we discuss this I would like to introduce two concepts –

that of ‘dominant designs’ and Kuhn’s notion of normal and

revolutionary science applied to engineering

Dominant Designs

Dominant Designs

Dominant designs allow engineering effort and investment to be

concentrated to achieve economies of scale and incremental

improvements in performance.

This happens at multiple scales that include physical, social and

informational elements.

The consequence:

“Industrial economies have been locked into fossil fuel-based

energy systems through a process of technological and institutional

co-evolution driven by path-dependent increasing returns to scale .

. this condition . . creates persistent market and policy failures that

can inhibit the diffusion of carbon-saving technologies” Unruh, 2000

Normal and revolutionary engineering

Thomas Kuhn suggested that most science is done within the

framework of established scientific paradigms

From time to time these paradigms fail to explain anomalies, and

that leads to scientific revolution

We can consider that there is a similar process in engineering –

most engineers work to improve and develop existing paradigms,

but from time to time they are shown to be anomalous and have to

be replaced through technical revolutions

Our current technologies are clearly anomalous for a number of

reasons. Engineering (and societal) revolution is needed now.

Questions and discussion?

Chris McMahon

chris.mcmahon@bris.ac.uk, 20 November 2014