Making the Clean Available: Beyond Climate and Out of the Box

Kirk R. Smith, MPH, PhD Professor of Global Environmental Health

University of California, Berkeley

Energy and Resources Group Colloquium UCB Campus April 6, 2016

Leading cause of disease burden in 2010 by country Population Cooking with Solid Fuels in 2010 (%)

Toxic Pollutants in Wood Smoke from Simple (poor) Combustion

• Small particles, CO, NO2 • Hydrocarbons

– 25+ saturated hydrocarbons such as n-hexane – 40+ unsaturated hydrocarbons such as 1,3 butadiene – 28+ mono-aromatics such as benzene & styrene – 20+ polycyclic aromatics such as benzo(α)pyrene

• Oxygenated organics – 20+ aldehydes including formaldehyde & acrolein – 25+ alcohols and acids such as methanol – 33+ phenols such as catechol & cresol – Many quinones such as hydroquinone – Semi-quinone-type and other radicals

• Chlorinated organics such as methylene chloride and dioxin

Source: Naeher et al, J Inhal Tox, 2007

Typical cookstove releases

400 cigarettes per hour worth of smoke

First person in human history to have her exposure measured doing the oldest task in human history

Kheda District Gujarat, 1981

~500 ug/m3 For 24 hours

Stroke

Ischemic Heart Disease

ALRI

ug/m3 annual average PM2.5

COPD Lung Cancer

DALYs

Three major estimates of the direct annual premature mortality from

not using LPG (or other gaseous fuel)

• Global – GBD–2010: 3.6 million – WHO-2012: 4.3 million – GBD-2013: 2.9 million

• India – GBD-2010: 1 million – WHO-2012: 1.2 million – GBD-2013: 0.9 million

Chafe, et al., 2014

Percent of primary ambient PM2.5 from household cooking fuels – population weighted

~25% in India

India and Air Pollution

• Not only the highest burden of disease from air pollution in the world ~1.6 million premature deaths a year,

• Also among the highest burdens per capita – Twice that of China

• Both ambient and household pollution important

• And they are connected

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Very Low Income

200 million

Low Income 400 million

Middle Income 400 million

High Income 200 million

Ag res- 15%

Coal – 1%

Kerosene -3%

PNG < 1%

Elec < 1%

Non-solid fuels

Solid Fuels

LPG – 30%

Biogas – 0.3%

Wood – 49%

--1.0

~~4

~~400

Household Energy Ladder in India

How do we help people move into

this realm?

What has been done - #1:

Wait for development to work. • Percent using solid fuel slowly declines

with development alone • Often accompanied by LPG and kero

subsidies and • Lifeline electricity subsidy

1990: 85%: 700 million people using solid fuels 2010: 60%: 700 million people ~1980 700 million people in entire country

700 million people in the Chulha Trap

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Very Low Income

200 million

Low Income 400 million

Middle Income 400 million

High Income 200 million

Ag res- 15%

Coal – 1%

Kerosene -3%

PNG < 1%

Elec < 1%

Non-solid fuels

Solid Fuels

LPG – 30%

Biogas – 0.3%

Wood – 49%

--1.0

~~4

~~400

Household Energy Ladder

What has been done #2: Make the available clean

• Many hundreds of “improved” biomass stove programs over ~60 years

• Including major national programs in China and India in the 1980s covering ~200 million households in all

• And in India, Peru, Mexico, Nepal, Honduras, Ethiopia, and other countries today

• Hundreds of NGOs, big and small, promoting stoves around the world over the decades

Being done, cont. • Link to climate co-benefits in carbon market • Health effects research expanding greatly • Global Alliance for Clean Cookstoves: 2010 • Standards being developed with ISO and WHO • Often improvement in fuel use has occurred • But, unfortunately,

– The cleanest models have been disseminated to only a few tens of thousands of households

– And, as yet, no biomass stove in the world comes close to the boundary – is clean enough to be truly health protective in household use

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Oorja stove, Oorja pellet fuel (Dry)

Philips fan HD4012, wood fuel (Dry)

Belonio, rice hull fuel (Dry)

Berkeley Darfur, wood fuel (Dry)

Envirofit G-3300, slow feed rate, wood fuel (Dry)

Philips fan HD4012, wood fuel (Wet)

StoveTec GreenFire, slow feed rate, wood fuel (Dry)

StoveTec Charcoal, charcoal fuel (Wet)

KCJ Standard, charcoal fuel (Dry)

Jiko Metal, charcoal fuel (Dry)

Jiko Ceramic, charcoal fuel (Dry)

Mayon Turbo, rice hull fuel (Wet)

Sampada, wood fuel (Wet)

Gyapa, charcoal fuel (Dry)

KCJ Standard, charcoal fuel (Wet)

Geres, charcoal fuel(Dry)

Envirofit G-3300, wood fuel (Dry)

3 Stone carefully tended, wood fuel (Dry)

Sampada, wood fuel (Dry)

Upesi Portable, wood fuel (Dry)

Jinqilin CKQ-80I, corn cob fuel (Dry)

Upesi Portable, wood fuel (Wet)

PM emission rate (g/hour)

Figure S29. PM2.5 Emission Rate (per Time)

Simmer

Hot Start

Cold Start

Best lab performance with dry wood - ~8x WHO IAQG

Jetter et al., EST, 2012

#1 Making the clean available

New Paradigms

Public health and environment 20 |

Secretary Vivek Rae

• Doubled number of distributors for the next year ~10 million new people

• Ministry worked on a plan to triple LPG access in rural India by 2025

• Requiring a major effort related to imports, finances, infrastructure, distribution modes, etc.

• And, importantly, fixing the subsidy system

India recently: ~40,000 crore/y (6 billion USD) to promote clean cooking

• LPG subsidies, but not targeted to poor • A political and economic burden • But can be considered a major asset to

promote clean fuels even further among the poor

• To do so, however, requires – Eliminating leakage to non-household sector – Target to poor – take away from rich

This being done • Stage I: began Jan 1, 2015

– Direct Bank Transfer: largest in human history – All LPG now sold at market rate. – LPG sales rose 40% in commercial sector

• Stage II: began April 1, 2015 – “Give it up” campaign: 30k per day – ~9.6 million households have done so (Apr 4, 2016)

– Connection fee from CSR funds of oil companies ~1800 INR – 30 USD

– Focused only on poor families (BPL)

GIU campaign • Extensive social marketing

– Modi and other celebrities in speeches, media ads, bill boards, etc

– SMS messages – Fairs, athletic events, posters, skits, etc – Delivery boys – Website linking those giving up to those

receiving: middle class to poor – Key chains, plaques, awards, etc.

• Health is the message – “make a poor man’s kitchen clean”

Times of India Oct 2, 2015 Gandhi’s Birthday

MyLPG website: Apr 6, 2016

Feb 24, 2016

Feb 24, 2016

LPG expansion, cont. • Phase III: Jan 1, 2016

– Income limit – 10 lakh/year (USD 15k) – to be extended

downwards • Phase IV: April 1, 2016

– Expand GIU – And add additional incentives – To reach a total of 50 million below poverty

line households in 3 years – 8000 crore (1.2 B USD) dedicated by GoI

Budget Speech: Feb 29, 2016 • “In our country, cooking gas cylinders were

considered an upper middle class luxury. • Gradually it spread to the middle class. • But the poor do not have access to cooking

gas. • Women of India have faced the curse of

smoke during the process of cooking. • According to experts having an open fire in

the kitchen is like burning 400 cigarettes an hour.

The time has come to remedy this situation

We have decided to embark upon on a

massive mission to provide LPG connection in the name of women

members of poor households.

• The Scheme will be continued to cover a total of 5 crore (50 million) BPL households. (1.2 billion USD committed for 3 years)

• This measure will empower women and protect their health. It will reduce drudgery and the time spent on cooking.

• It will also provide employment for rural youth in the supply chain of cooking gas.

• I want to take this opportunity to express our gratitude and appreciation for the 75 lakh (7.5 million) middle class and lower middle class households who have voluntarily given up their cooking gas subsidy, in response to the call given by the Hon'ble Prime Minister.

• Their gesture is a matter of pride for the country.”

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Very Low Income

200 million

Low Income 400 million

Middle Income 400 million

High Income 200 million

Crop Waste Dung

Coal

Kerosene

Natural Gas

Electricity

Non-solid fuels

Solid Fuels

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Biogas

Wood

Conceptual Indian Energy Ladder

?

Paradigm #2

Stepping out of the box

“If you don’t need your father’s land line to phone,

why your mother’s stove to cook?”

• Electrification is an essential human need – brings many social and economic benefits

• Electrification also allows a wide range of highly efficient cooking devices

Rural Gujarat - 2013

Induction Cookstove

What is an induction cookstove? • Electric, yes, but entirely different technology

from traditional electric stoves • High frequency magnetic field induces heat in pot

alone • More efficient ~90% instead of ~60% • Faster cooking ~1.5x • Safer and cooler– surface is warm but does not

burn or cause fires • Long-lived, easy to clean • Large economies of scale in manufacture like

other electrical devices

Cooking with Induction

Safer – the stove does not get hot

Roti being made on an induction Stove: New Delhi

Chaiwallah In Odisha

Flying off the shelves in China

Considerations • Cooking would add serious additional peak

demand but at great benefit, and not large compared to need in general

• Hydropower, however, is much less affected if storage is available.

• To whatever degree ICs substitute for biomass or even LPG, the calculus for electrification benefits changes dramatically

The Ecuador Story • Switched out nearly 100% from biomass to

LPG in late 1980s • Now changing out every stove in country to

induction • Soon to have 8 new hydropower plants:

“Green Cooking” • Primary motivation: eliminate 700M

USD/year in LPG subsidies

Ecuador cont. • Low income and other deserving

households to obtain free stoves and utensils (~30% of total)

• Rest to receive stoves at zero or low interest paid on electric bill

• All households to be wired for a 220 V circuit

• All households with ICS to receive first 80 kWh/mo free.

Ecuador, cont. • $250 million from Chinese ExIm Bank to

buy Chinese ICs built under Ecuador specs • LPG equipment already increasing in price

due to change in tariffs • In 2-3 years, LPG subsidies start to be

removed • Field studies showed high social acceptance • Local research and manufacturing to

develop utensils for local cooking habits • Widespread sophisticated social marketing

President of Ecuador, 2015

“If you don’t need your father’s land line for a phone call, why your mother’s stove for a meal?

March 30, 2016

The Bhutan Story • Poor – PPP/cap

– one-half of China – 1.3x of India

• Wood use declining and clean fuel use rising

• Rate of clean fuel introduction about 6.5% pa over 20 years

• Still much overlap - stacking

1990 2000 2010

Pop

Clean Fuel

Wood

6.5% growth rate in clean fuel

Bhutan

Traditional Biomass Stoves in Bhutan

~40% of households ~World Average

UNDP Chimney Cookstove

UNDP Chimney Fodder Stove

Bhutan Hydropower

Bhutan and “smokeless-ness”

• First country in world to ban smoking and sale of all tobacco products – 2004

• Pushing electric cooking appliances and wishes to go 100%

• Considering all electric vehicles • Space heating a big challenge, however.

Bhutan: Going down the Intake Fraction Ladder?

Modern Electric Cooking

• Not just induction stoves, but a wide range of efficient task-specific appliances as well: rice cookers, water kettles, etc.

• Every time a switch is flicked instead of a match, it is better for health

Increasing Prosperity and Development

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Very Low Income

200 million

Low Income 400 million

Middle Income 400 million

High Income 200 million

Crop Waste Dung

Natural Gas

Electricity

Non-solid fuels

Solid Fuels

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Biogas

Wood

Conceptual Indian Energy Ladder

?

Paradigm #3: It is a health issue

• Not primarily an energy, climate, or employment issue

• Health sector finds the most effective solutions possible and makes them available

• Treats all the same: we do not have rural vaccines and urban vaccines

• Not stopped by taste, custom, poverty, special interests, or political correctness

• Not afraid of advanced tech that works

Health Issue, Cont.

• No successful behavioral change for health comes without effort on “compliance” as well as access.

• Can give people latrines, bednets, condoms, nutrition supplements, low-salt food options, LPG, etc., but they do not immediately fully take them up

• Need ways to shorten stacking period with HAP interventions – stoves and fuels

Fuel interventions: LPG and Electricity

• Disadvantage is continuing cost to household

• Advantage, however, is that means we can have continuing interaction with customer to encourage usage.

Ideas to Encourage Usage

• Link with health insurance • Link with small cash incentives: LPG

subsidy goes up with usage • Link with rural employment schemes • Payment/incentive linked to recurring fuel

cost – you do not use, you do not get the benefit

Subsidy or ?

• Health sector does not refer to programs to vaccinate or provide maternal care to the poor as “subsidies” but rather

• Social investments • In order for public support of clean fuels to be

termed social investments, they need to be far better targeted than in the past.

• Modern IT technology provides ways to do so

Of course

• Just providing affordable access does not mean people instantly switch

• Fact that 60% of world uses gas and/or electricity, however, argues strongly that the rest will.

• Is clearly what is needed in long term – why not sooner rather than later?

Paradigm Shifts

• Make the clean available, as well as make the available clean

• Embrace/enhance transformational leap-frog technologies

• Enhance displacement of clean fuels from richer to poorer households

• Act recognizing that it is primarily a health issue

Greenhouse Impact?

Depends on assumptions related to non-CO2 GH pollutants

Fossil fuel subsidies – always bad?

Not all fossil fuels are the same

LPG substitutes for worse fuels for health and probably climate

Not all subsidies are the same

When targeted to disadvantaged,

should be considered social investment

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Very Low Income

200 million

Low Income 400 million

Middle Income 400 million

High Income 200 million

Crop Waste Dung

Coal

Kerosene

Natural Gas

Electricity

Non-solid fuels

Solid Fuels

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

Biogas

Wood

Conceptual Indian Energy Ladder

How do we help people move into

this realm?

Smith/Pillarisetti, 2014

Many thanks “Google” Kirk R. Smith for

presentations and publications