Cognos 10: Intelligence Unleashed Smarter Decisions. Better Results
Making less risky business decisions with Market Intelligence
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Valéry MAINJOT Spa Balmoral, 19 th October 2013 Making less risky business decisions with Market Intelligence
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Présentation du concept de "Market Intelligence" faite aux étudiants du IBI International Trade Executive Programme ce samedi 19 octobre 2013 à Spa Balmoral. (NB: Certaines planches ont été supprimées ou "nettoyées" pour des raisons évidentes de confidentialité).
Transcript of Making less risky business decisions with Market Intelligence
Valéry MAINJOT Spa Balmoral, 19th October 2013
Making less risky business decisions with Market Intelligence
WHY MARKET INTELLIGENCE ? BECAUSE IT’S A STRATEGIC NEED…
知彼知己，百戰不殆；不知彼而知己，一勝一負；不知彼 ， 不 知 己，每戰必殆
If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; If you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; If you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.
Competitive Intelligence Business Intelligence
©MKTOC -‐ 2013
SLEPT Analysis
SWOT Analysis
New Business Model Canvas
Porter Model of CompeJJon
BCG Matrix
Strategy
In order to be able to realize reliable analysis, you need reliable intelligence
Intelligence & Strategy
ExisLng markets
New markets
ExisLng products New Products
DifferenLaLon (CompeJJve intelligence studies,
segmentaJon studies, etc.)
Product development (Needs assessment, concept tesJng
studies, etc.)
DiversificaLon (AcquisiJon studies, Concept tesJng studies, market entry studies, etc.)
Market development (AcquisiJon studies, market
assessment studies, market expansion studies)
Market Intelligence and the ANSOFF matrix
Intelligence is mandatory for each development axe of the enterprise
Corporate Strategy
Surveillance
Researches
The Corporate Strategy defines the Intelligence needs and thus the missions of the Market Intelligence Cell. However, the Market Intelligence reports influence also the Corporate Strategy.
The Market Intelligence Cell has got a lot of customers, from the ExecuLve Board to the Product and Sales Managers • M&A analysis • Partner & CompeJtor strategy analysis • CompeJJve benchmarking (financial results) • Business Line Strategy • Partnership & Business Development analysis • Market Research • Customer needs • CompeJJve intelligence (analysis & products benchmarking) • CompeJtors Pricing
OperaJonal
intelligence
Strategic intelligence
Market Intelligence
Corporate Strategy
Market Intelligence
Business Line
Strategy
Corporate & BL Strategies
Business Line
Strategy
Market Intelligence
Product Management PromoJon Market
Intelligence Sales
MarkeJng & Sales Strategies
MarkeJng & Sales Strategies
MICROENVIRONMENT OF THE COMPANY
What to watch?
COMPANY
COMPETITORS
PROVIDERS
PARTNERS
CUSTOMERS
Dun & Bradstreet Credit RaJng e-‐ReputaLon CompeLLve
Intelligence Customers Intelligence
MACROENVIRONMENT OF THE COMPANY
What to watch ? SLE3PT ! Social, Legal, Economic, Environmental (Green), Ethical, PoliJc, Technological
Coy
SUMMARY:
Consider information as the Key of your Business
D2D Operations require Situational Awareness
Strategic plans require Intelligence
Take example, gain altitude & look far ahead!
Autor: v. Mainjot
GENERAL OVERVIEW TERMINOLOGY
?Veille stratégique
Veille économique
Veille concurren2elle
Veille juridique
Veille brevets
Veille technologique
Veille marché
Veille commerciale
Veille mutualisée
Intelligence stratégique
Intelligence stratégique Intelligence de marché
Compe22ve intelligence
Open Source Intelligence Human Intelligence
OSINT / ROSO
Web intelligence
Veille réglementaire
HUMINT
Market Intelligence
Veille e-‐reputa2on
Terminology (English / French)
SOCINT Veille externe
Strategic Intelligence
Search
Surveillance Researchs Studies
Safe Act
Strategic Intelligence (Walloon Region concept) = Global Management of Informa2onal Ressources
Market Intelligence
Security Influence
Author: : zcool.com.cn
« Know something new about some things »
« Know a maximum of things about something »
Market Intelligence ? 2 main acJviJes
(Market) Surveillance
Search & (Market) Research
Missions of the Market Surveillance
• Increase the SituaJonal Awareness of the entreprise • Create the InformaJonal Asymetry with its compeJtors
• Detect quickly the Risks and the OpportuniJes in front of the entreprise
The Market Surveillance is a tool helping the company making operaJonal business decisions and launching strategic market researches (studies)
Mission of the Market Research (Studies)
Give a maximum of AcJonnable Intelligence relaJve to a parJcular strategic maeer
A Market Research is a tool helping the company making strategic business decisions
BI OSINT H
UMINT
Author: zcool.com.cn
INSIDE OUTSIDE
Examples: NaJonal AdministraJons Libraries (UniversiJes)
MAR
KET INTELLIGEN
CE
BI OSINT H
UMINT
Author: zcool.com.cn
INSIDE OUTSIDE
Examples: NaJonal AdministraJons Libraries (UniversiJes)
MAR
KET INTELLIGEN
CE
Use collaboraJve tools to share your intelligence
OSINT
HUMINT
Reliable Intelligence
InformaJon & Data
1
Decrease Quan2ty Increase Reliability
AcJonable Intelligence
2 3
Human & IT Process Human Process
Intelligence Process
Intelligence Process Keywords
Timely !!!! Accurate Tailored
« To provide the right informaJon to the right guy »
« Fight Infobesity »
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE WHY?
OSINT
Origin of the InformaJon
• 90 % OSINT – 90 % free informaJon (white sources) – 10 % payable informaJon (grey sources) – No illegal sources (black sources)
• 10 % HUMINT
2000: • 6 billion people on the Earth • 361 million internet users • 6% internet penetration 2012: • 7 billion people on the Earth • 2.4 billion internet users • 34 % internet penetration
• 79% USA • 68 % Oceania-Australia - 63% Europe • 43 % South America – 40 % Middle East • 27 % Asia – 16 % Africa
Source: www.internetworldstats.com
The use of internet is growing extremely rapidly
Autor: TpdkDesign.net
Source: www.worldwidewebsize.com
Library of Alexandria (250 BC)
≈ 500,000 scrolls
World Wide Web (2013)
≈ 50,000,000,000 pages indexed by Google (WWW is bigger)
WWW indexed ≈ 100,000 x Library of Alexandria Available at home, at your office, on your Smart Phone!
SOCINT -‐ SOCial INTelligence
Ø 500 millions Twieer accounts Ø > 1 millions Twieer accounts in Belgium Ø 15.000 tweets/second Ø 1 billion tweets each 2.5 days
TwiZer Example
Social Media are not only interesJng for your e-‐Community Manager but also for your compeJtors and
your market intelligence cell
(SOCINT makes part of OSINT)
Everything on the Web can be exploited by Market OSINT
PROSOCIAL BEHAVIOR LIKE, RATE, SHARE, etc.
CONTENT TEXT, MEDIA, etc.
INTEREST -‐ STATISTICS KEYWORDS entries in Search Engines VISITED Web Pages (unique visitors)
Views (You Tube), etc.
©MKTOC -‐ 2013
www.pedegoelectricbikes.com
Lots of information from the Web is not reliable or not interesting for your company. It doesn’t mean that THE information that you need is not somewhere on the Web. 80 % of data that you are looking for is at a few clics. The question is : « How to catch them ? »
© MKTOC -‐ 2013
Autor: Surachai
SURVEILLANCE / WATCH: TOOLS
Watch
STRATEGIC MARKETING
Business (sector)
Knowledge
Web 2.0
TOOLS
« Intelligence Process »
The 4 fundamental PILARS of the Web Surveillance
SOURCING
GATHTERING
ANALYSIS
Sources & Content Reliability
US Army uses OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) and edited the ATP 22.9 manual in July 2012
ATP 22.9:
A-‐B: Our sources
1-‐2: Our contents
3: If necessary with precauJon
C: if necessary with precauJon
• Powerful « Crawler » idenJfying changes in a web page or new created web pages • Mandatory if not possible to have a RSS feed • BACK UP if end of RSS feed Technology
CRAWLER : Website Watcher
YAHOO PIPES : BUILD ONE FEED WITH ALL YOUR SOURCES
Example of secondary feed Keywords (BLOCK & PERMIT) => ONE FEED FOR EACH THEMATIC
Primary feed (all sources inside)
Secondary feed (customized)
ORGANIZE YOUR SECONDARY FEEDS IN ORDER TO SELECT THE INFORMATION TO SAVE AND TO SHARE
FEEDLY
You can create feed with Diigo
SAVE AND SHARE
IFTTT (If This Then That) CREATE LINK BETWEEN YOUR TOOLS => AUTOMATISATION
SEARCH & FILTER GATHER & ADD TO DB SHARE & COMMENT
EXAMPLE OF AN OSINT PROCESS WITH HIGH AUTOMATISATION ( © MKTOC)
(BACK UP)
(BACK UP Diigo Report)
(NO RSS & BACK UP RSS)
DASHBOARD THE RESULT OF YOUR SURVEILLANCE ALLOW ACCESS TO THE MEMBER OF THE COMPANY
Perenity ? Security ? Property ?
BE CAREFUL WHEN USING TOOLS ON THE CLOUD -‐ IDENTIFY, ANALYSE & MANAGE RISKS! -‐ COMPARE INTERNAL & EXTERNAL SOLUTIONS
CompeJtors’ Market Intelligence Cells
SEARCH & RESEARCH TOOLS
HOW TO REALIZE A MARKET/COMPETITOR STUDY USING OSINT?
NO UNIVERSAL METHOD!
REQUIREMENTS: • IMAGINATION • CREATIVITY
• PERSEVERANCE
PHASE 2 CaractérisaJon et priorisaJon
PHASE 1 RécepJon de la demande de renseignement
PHASE 3
Méthodologie a priori (brainstorming)
PHASE 4
Recherche d’informaJons et de données
PHASE 5 Point d’avancement / Analyse de la perJnence de la méthodologie « a priori »
PHASE 8 Diffusion du renseignement exploitable
PHASE 7 RédacJon d’un renseignement exploitable
Mises-‐à-‐jour éventuelles
Way to proceed
+ Hypothèses éventuelles Knowledge management
PHASE 6
Traitement et analyse de l’informaJon construcJon du renseignement fiable
You can find informaJon about new jobs, financial results, contracts awarded, opening of new facility, e-‐reputaJon and someJmes leaks or indiscreJons…
SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE
New poten2al customers? New partners? Who knows some informa2on about your business?
SOCIAL INTELLIGENCE
Can be useful to (examples): • IdenJfy a facility; • Calculate the size of a building,
esJmate the capacity of the parking, determine the number of vehicles;
• Evaluate the number of employees; • EsJmate a turnover of a company. SomeJmes outdated !
CONTENT IS NOT ONLY TEXT
More and more content is provided by video Some videos can be more interesJng for compeJtors than for customers (industrial tools, manufacturing processes, product demonstraJon, new web applicaJon tutorial)
CONTENT IS NOT ONLY TEXT
New generaJon doesn’t write New generaJon uploads videos Be prepared…
Google Trends Market Needs and CompeJJve Intelligence
There is a link between the interest on Google and customers’ purchases
SEM Tools & CompeJJve Intelligence Unique Visitors Trafic
Study Jan 13: Business with Lapeyre France or Leroy Merlin France ? What about the 2012 financial results? Financial results were not yet published.
Results January 2013 The turnovers are not yet published but the raJo can be esJmated
CA 2012 LAPEYRE RaJo CA 2012 LEROY MERLIN FRANCE 768.879 6,3 4.843.938 768.879 7,3 5.612.817 768.879 Moyenne 5.228.377
Check September 2013: OK! There is a link between turnovers, Google interests and Unique Visitors Trafics
IdenJfy Trends in the Market Needs
CompeLLve Intelligence
« DEEP WEB » EXAMPLES
9,0$
13,4$ 13,4$15,0$
17,6$18,6$ 19,4$
22,4$
23,6$22,8$
20,3$
23,8$23,8$
22,3$
20,3$
0$
5$
10$
15$
20$
25$
30$
1994$ 2000$ 2001$ 2002$ 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$ 2013$
Mon
tant&en&millions&d'euros&
Annnée&fiscale&(01/01&8&31/12)&
Evolu>on&du&chiffre&d'affaires&de&Laboratoires&ORTIS&SPRL&(Es0ma0on$MKTOC$:$2013)$
Crise financière de 2008 Déstockage Faiblesse £/€
AggravaJon des crises économiques dans les pays du Sud de l’Europe
Effet posiJf d’un nouveau distributeur en France
Forecast
Company Financial Results Databases & Market Intelligence
2005$
2006$
2007$
2008$
2009$
2010$2011$
2012$
0,0%$
0,5%$
1,0%$
1,5%$
2,0%$
2,5%$
3,0%$
3,5%$
15%$ 17%$ 19%$ 21%$ 23%$ 25%$ 27%$ 29%$
Return'On'Sales'(%)':'ROS'='Bé
néfices/Chiffre'd'aff
aires'
Taux'de'marge'brute'(%)':'marge'brute'/'Chiffre'd'affaires'
Return'On'Sales'VS'Taux'de'marge'brute'
Company Financial Results Databases & Market Intelligence
235$
189$
190$
168$
225$
190$
106$120$
137$
110$
147$130$
113$
0$
50$
100$
150$
200$
250$
2000$ 2001$ 2002$ 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$
Valeur'(€
)'par'to
nne'
Evolu1on'de'la'valeur'd'exporta1on'vers'la'Chine'du'bois'de'hêtre'belge'à'la'tonne'
50581%
27694%
11334%
3422% 1050% 2962%8587%
26238%
49883%
40902%34913%
84997% 84434%
0%
10000%
20000%
30000%
40000%
50000%
60000%
70000%
80000%
90000%
2000% 2001% 2002% 2003% 2004% 2005% 2006% 2007% 2008% 2009% 2010% 2011% 2012%
Volume'de
s'exporta/o
ns'(e
n'tonn
es)'
Evolu/on'des'exporta/ons'(en'tonnes)'vers'la'Chine'du'bois'de'hêtre'belge''
11,9$
5,2$
2,2$
0,6$ 0,2$ 0,6$ 0,9$
3,1$
6,9$
4,5$5,1$
11,0$
9,5$
0,0$
2,0$
4,0$
6,0$
8,0$
10,0$
12,0$
14,0$
2000$ 2001$ 2002$ 2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$
Mon
tant&des&exporta-o
ns&(e
n&millions&€)&
Evolu-on&du&montant&des&exporta-ons&vers&la&Chine&du&bois&de&hêtre&belge&&
InternaLonal trade databases & Market Intelligence
Patents: CompeJJve & Technology Intelligence
SEARCH ENGINES + « DEEP WEB »
Process
q Micro-data collection (contracts awarded)
q Consolidation with others information (qualitative & quantitative understanding of the market)
Main Weaknesses of this methodology
q Request a lot of time and is “never finished and complete” => Need to limit the time accorded to searches
q Non exhaustive (kind of « sampling ») : Need to analyze the confidence in the results
Methodology: OSINT Sourcing + Bottom-Up Approach
+ MARKET
MICRODATA + MACRODATA = Estimated Quantity (example 1)
MICRODATA (Press Dec 2005): • Estonian army decides to replace Makarov
pistols by Heckler & Koch USP (quanJty not available)
MACRODATA (UNCOMTRADE 2001 -‐ 2012): • Peak of Estonian importaJons of German
pistols in 2006. CONCLUSION: Estonian army bought approximately 3,500 HK USP in 2006
Example: Major Actors of the RoW pistol market
