Make the Connection - Presenting DFA to Management Presented by Neal M. Leibowitz, ACAS SS&C...
-
Upload
barbara-french -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Make the Connection - Presenting DFA to Management Presented by Neal M. Leibowitz, ACAS SS&C...
Make the Connection - Presenting DFA to Management
Presented by Neal M. Leibowitz, ACAS
SS&C Technologies, INC
2000 CAS Seminar on DFA
Dynamic Financial Analysis is Complicated
....The Key to presenting DFA
is to Simplify the Message!!
Basics for the Presentation
• Plan
• Open
• Lead
• Conclude
Plan - Before Your Presentation
• Understand your role.
• Become comfortable with the analysis and answers from your work
• Know your audience.
• Know what management wants to get out of DFA (the business issue at hand).
Understand your role• Why did you perform the DFA analysis in the
first place?
• Information Giving– You present information that you found in your analysis.
– Used to identify problems (opportunities), its causes and possible solutions.
• Problem Solving– You present possible solutions to a problem management
identified.
– Used to evaluate possible solutions and choose the best one.
Your Comfort Level with DFA• You must become comfortable with DFA before
you can make others comfortable with it.– The more you work on DFA the more comfortable you’ll be.
– Help is out there.• CAS Dynamic Financial Analysis Web Site.
– Dispel Misconceptions• Misconception - DFA adds uncertainty.
• DFA isn’t uncertainty it measures uncertainty!– E.g. Cox, Ingersoll & Ross interest rate model generator.
Good Graphics Communicate Uncertainty
Company's 2000 Projected ROE
12.3%
7.5% 7.5%
3.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Static Projection Dynamic Projection
No variability
90% Confidence Band
Know your audience
• Know exactly who is going to attend?– CEO? VP’s? One person or a dozen?
• How technical can you get?– Chief Actuary - very, VP Marketing - not
at all.
• Direct your speech to your audience.
Know your audience• Great graphic, but only for the right audience.
• Maybe this graphic would be better....
337,814323,491 353,845
.00003
.00005
.00008 Range
Know what management wants to get out of DFA
• Results not techniques
• Solutions not questions
• The reason management is interested in any presentation is always related to a business application...
• Always know the “language” that your audience speaks (e.g. answers should be given in business metrics)
Open - Start Strong
• Your opening should provoke an immediate response from the audience, setting the mood for the presentation.– “In my DFA analysis I found $50M …”– “There’s a 10% chance we’re going to be
insolvent…”– “We will fail multiple IRIS tests…”
Start StrongA Distribution of "Net Leverage"
389%
532%
673%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
500%
550%
600%
650%
700%
DynamicJan-98
DynamicJan-99
DynamicJan-00
DynamicJan-01
DynamicJan-02
DynamicJan-03
0.05
Mean
0.95
FailPass
Under the proposed reinsurance strategy, our company will fail the Net Leverage test 32% of the time. Is this satisfactory from a “risk” standpoint?
32%
Lead• Direct the discussion.
• You have a point to make - make it!
Direct the discussion
• Only you know what you’re going to say.– Resist coughing up “Cat Hairballs”– Support observations with graphics that
“prove” something– Always address risk vs.
reward ....remember, “DFA speaks with Confidence”
Make Your Point!
• Present the Business Application– What surplus levels should be allocated to each
line of business? – How competitive can we be in our pricing?– How much should be paid out in dividends?– Which reinsurance program is best? – Should we acquire, divest or run-off lines of
business?– Which asset allocation is best given the risk
profile of the liabilities?
Make Your Point!• You can present alternatives and let
Management Decide
1,250,890
985,392
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,500,000
1,700,000
Strategy 1 Strategy 2 Strategy 3 Strategy 4 Strategy 5 Strategy 6
More Risk,Higher Expected Return
Be Prepared to Answer “Unanticipated” Questions On The Spot
• Have your DFA results handy, so you can pull up distributions on the fly....
For example, if asked how oftenwill Taxes> $80M?
Drill into yourFed Tax metric, interrogate the distributionand pick off theanswer!
The Gatekeeper• The meeting manager
– Keep the meeting on track. • Bring the discussion back to your point.
– Keep the meeting on time.• Time is money.
Conclude
• Reemphasize your point
• Review action items
• Close on a positive note
Reemphasize your point
• Put the nail in the coffin!– People tend to remember the first thing
you say and the last, so make it count and hammer home your message.
Review action items
• Review what’s been accomplished at the meeting.
• Review what now needs to be done and by whom.
Close on a positive note• Get more bees with honey.
– Discuss the solution that DFA provided not the problem it found.
– DFA is a wonderful thing that solves all insurance company problems.