Major Issues in Mekong Development
description
Transcript of Major Issues in Mekong Development
1
Major Issues in Mekong Development Major Issues in Mekong Development
–
2
Issues for: Top of the LMB BasinIssues for: Top of the LMB Basin
Physical Facts Socio economic Factors:
(Needs ) Current & potentials uses of
MK resources Issues facing those in the
upper LMB Who are affected ? ( via
various allocation of resources ?)
3
1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts 1. Physical facts
Water Contribution:
Upper Mekong (18%)
Lower Mekong (82%)
4
Lower Mekong water balance2 INDEPENDENT STATES:
LAOS & THAILAND
The top part LMB contribute 53% of the total inflow
The largest proportion of flow is from the left bank tributaries in Laos ( 35%)
5
The Top of The Top of LMBLMB
The Top of The Top of LMBLMB
- Left bank: largely mountainous w/ high peaks, steep land. Forest cover. Rich ecosystem intact. Very lightly population. One of the least developed region.
-Right bank: Plateau, largely agriculture ( 80+ % of all
land) highly populated. Fishery resources
6
2. SOCIAL/Economic 2. SOCIAL/Economic factors: Demandfactors: Demand
7
Social/ EconomicSocial/ Economic PopulationPopulationThai LMB 22 mil (of 63 mil) Thai LMB 22 mil (of 63 mil) Laos Laos 5.5 mil 5.5 mil
Cambodia20%
Laos9%
Thailand38%
Viet Nam33%
8
PopulatiPopulationon
0
20
40
60
80
100
milli
ons
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand LMB Viet Nam LMB
9
Social/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needsSocial/Economic factors: Drivers/ needs
L& T economies of different types.
1. Laos heavy Nat. resources-dependence ( Ag. 53% of GDP) Poverty ~40%. Largely rural. Advantage in forestry & Hydro Power.
2. Thailand. Diverse economy( Ag. 16% of GDP)
light, agro industry.Advt. In value added & quality products. Export throughout the region. MK sources users
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand NEThailand
Viet Nam VN MekongDelta
GDP
per c
apita
(USD
)
1990
1995
1998
2000
Economic
growth
10
Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Macro-economic Context Different planning perspectives.
Different expectation of BDP
– T. national agenda/priorities
dominates the regional
(NE/N ->parts in the LMB).
– Laos LMB part is the country.
7
11
Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB Resources Uses & trend for Top Of LMB
Hydro power generation Irrigated /agriculture
In stream need: fishery resources, Ecological health, Habitat protection, Biodiversity, Pollution control, Navigation
12
Uses for hydropower: Uses for hydropower:
Total cap of MKB is 43,000 MW
UMB: 23,000
LMB: 30,000 MW
Of the LMB 13,000 in Laos PDR, 13,000 in mainstream.
LMB: 18001800 MW
Total installed capacity Now:
UMB: 28502850 MW
13
Major DamsMajor Dams
Lao PDR:Lao PDR:
Nam Ngum 19711971
Nam Theun-Hinboun 19981998
Nam Leuk 19991999
Xeset 19911991
Huay HoHuay Ho 1999 1999
Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR
14
Major DamsMajor Dams
Thailand:Thailand:
Ubol Ratana 19651965
Nam Pung 19661966
Sirindhorn 19701970
Chulaphon 19721972
Pak Mun 19941994 Pak Mun Dam - Thailand
15
Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR
HydropowerHydropowerCurrent installed capacity:
•16 dams ( Thailand 11 & Laos 5)
Of these 10 are hydro power w/ Cap 815 MW (L 607MW & T 260 MW)
•Nearly 400+ Mw from Laos sold Thailand
•Planned dams ( 2008-2016)
•14 dams in Laos energy export =4900 MW
•5 PJ of 3000 MW to Thailand
•7 PJ of 1900 MW to Vietnam
16
MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power MK resources use: hydro power
Thailand sources of energy ( 97,000) – 15 % hydro power
17
Energy Energy requirementrequirement ( GWH) ( GWH)Energy Energy requirementrequirement ( GWH) ( GWH)Energy Needs in LMB
333,000
170,000
5700 44000
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1990
2000
2020
1990 4400 8600 0 0
2000 97,000 26,000 381 865
2020 333,000 170,000 5700 4400
Th VN Cam Loas
Energy Consumtion/cap/year
1,400
290 34 124
4,100
1,450
250 450
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Th VN Cam Loas
year
KWh 2000
2020
18
Trading partners in energy Trading partners in energy
& hydropower& hydropower Trading partners in energy Trading partners in energy
& hydropower& hydropower
From 2008-2020Thailand: 7,400 MWFrom Loas 3700 MW (Hy)
700 MW (Lg)
From Yunan 3000 MW ( Jinghong)
Vietnam: 4,500 MW
From Laos 2500 MW ( S)
From Yunan 2000 MW ( Hanoi)
Cambodia
From Thailand: 90 MW
Irrigation Changes in paddy areas & production 1990- 2000
80%80%
60%60%
40%40%
20%20%
ProductionArea
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet NamCambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
20
Irrigation growthIrrigation growthTotal dry season irrigated cropped areasirrigated cropped areas (ha)Current: Upper LMB 0.4 mil ha, Lower LMB 3.50 mil ha
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
mill
ion
hect
ares
1985 1990 1995 2000
Cambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam
21
Irrigation Irrigation growthgrowth
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
milli
on h
ecta
res
1985 1990 1995 2000
Lao PDR
Irrigated dry season crop area
22
Irrigation Irrigation growthgrowth
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
milli
on h
ecta
res
1985 1990 1995 2000
Thailand
Irrigated dry season crop area
23
Irrigation Irrigation Irrigation Irrigation
Total regulation rate
whole MKB is 2.5 % of annual flow volume
Thailand: – 10 large scale dams for irrigation w/cap for 240,000 ha. ( ?) – Total effective storage of 5460 mil. M3.(7% mean annual flow in
Thailand)
Laos: – total effective storage of 5,200 mil m3. – Irrigate 160,000 ha
POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF IRRGATED AGRICULTURE ?
24
Fisheries Fisheries resourcesresources
Food security and local Food security and local livelihood livelihood
* Over 900,000 tons * Over 900,000 tons fresh water fish caught/ fresh water fish caught/ year in Laos & Thailand year in Laos & Thailand
((133,000 /790,000 tons) 133,000 /790,000 tons)
*Fish Main protein *Fish Main protein intake for rural house intake for rural house holds/poor.Appx. 71% holds/poor.Appx. 71%
HH in L ( 2.7 mil) depend HH in L ( 2.7 mil) depend on fish & forestry on fish & forestry
Resources as livelihood Resources as livelihood main strategymain strategy
26-30 kg/h/y- Laos 26-30 kg/h/y- Laos
30-45 kg/h/y-NE Thailand30-45 kg/h/y-NE Thailand
Instream needsInstream needs
25
Ecological Ecological health health
Instream needsInstream needs
Habitat protectionHabitat protectionBio-diversityBio-diversityPollution controlsPollution controls
26
River transport River transport and navigation and navigation
Instream needsInstream needs
The Mekong artery – protected The Mekong artery – protected under the 1995 Agreementunder the 1995 Agreement
27
Agro-industry - AquacultureAgro-industry - Aquaculture
Fish hatchery
28
Meeting the needs
Keeping the balance
29
Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1 Issues for the top of LMB #1
The 2 counties are energy trading partners ( Thailand a prominent customer) with mutual gain & benefits.
– Thailand get clean / inexpensive energy sources.– Laos PDR gets needed foreign exchanges -government revenue
for macro economic development
MK water importance for irrigated agriculture. Laos-> potential for expansion, Thailand some expansion & intensification
Fishery resources are important base for their rural population's livelihood support/ food security.
– Laos main livelihood strategy.– Thailand cushioning /safety net when all else fell in industrial sector
30
IIssues for the top of LMB #2ssues for the top of LMB #2IIssues for the top of LMB #2ssues for the top of LMB #2
Issue of poverty ( esp. Loas) government need to earn more revenue to improve quality of life for its people-to give better basic social services.
Laos has wealth in natural resources -a important earning potential
Nam Ngum Dam - Lao PDR
31
IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2
Maintaining Assets: Left bank ( Laos) has rich pristine N. Resources - largely in tact- important assets for country, MK region and some for the world & mankind.– Unique ecosystem which supports diverse species of plants and
animal which are rare & global significance– Pool of precious Genetic resources ( e.g. medicine) might not be
found anywhere else.– Complex of rich wetlands & ecology which regulates the
functioning of the MK system, services of nature that support other economic productivities which we depend on.
Hydro power & forestry exploitation are " prime earners" for Laos. Dilemma: How to earn & develop and not losing the assets above??
32
IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2
Forest cover loss ( shifting cultivation L ) Thailand face rapidly Increasing energy demand - looking for
supplying sources OUTSIDE the country Delicate balance between needs/ priorities of Thailand ( as a
whole state) and the people living of its LMB regions (The poorest part on the country - 60% of the poor here) Sometimes these needs are not the same.
Thailand decentralize industry /growth center to NE & N. We expect increasing urbanization in NE (EW Corridor) more water demand & control waste / pollution.
Pollution from existing agro industry - inadequate law enforcement/ monitoring.
33
IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2 IIssues for the top of LMB #2 ssues for the top of LMB #2
Irrigated intensification farming for export- how far do we go? High investment cost. High dose of chemicals. Good for export, but net benefit farmers? Risk market price & IN DEBTEDNESS ( 90%) & environmental cost ( not accounted for )
Thailand - drastic decrease of fish /edible animals ( species & quantity) due to high dose of farm chemicals in farm ( & due to reservoir /storage scheme)
How to ensure that country macro gain is also local Gain- not local burden. How to ensure fruits of development are shared fairly for those who lost their life base?
Balancing act when dealing with China on Nat.MK resources use ( Navigation) - need cooperation, but not taken advantage of us.