Mainstreet Research poll: Nov. 19

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EASTERN, NOVEMBER 19, 2015PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK

METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 2,718 Canadians by Smart IVR on November 16, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a

margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

ATTRIBUTION

Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR

ATLANTIC+/- 5.23%, 19 times out of 20

QUBEC+/- 3.84%, 19 times out of 20

ONTARIO+/- 3.9%, 19 times out of 20

PRAIRIES+/- 5.22%, 19 times out of 20

ALBERTA+/- 5.25%, 19 times out of 20

BRITISH COLUMBIA+/- 5.01%, 19 times out of 20

CANADIANS PREFER BOMBING MISSION - BUT MORE APPROVE OF TRAINING MISSION

November 19, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Canadians would choose a bombing mission over a training mission 38% to 28% - but more approve of the training mission, 70%, than the bombing mission, 60%, overall. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.88 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Support is more intense for the bombing mission than the training mission, said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. But the training mission has wider support. Either way, most Canadians believe Canada should be taking a role in the ght against ISIS. Only 8% of Canadians would support no action at all.

Opinion is split on Canadian action on refugees. 46% of Canadians are dissatised (42% satised) and 53% disapprove of the governments plan to bring in 25,000 refugees by the end of the year.

Conservatives have said the refugee plan needs to be slowed down for proper security screening, continued Maggi. This has been repeated in the United States with headlines showing some states wont accept refugees. Our earlier polling showed strong support for bringing refugees to Canada but after the attacks in Paris security is now a higher concern.

We asked Canadians if they thought an attack was likely here at home, 28% said its very likely and 38%. Most expect the threat will come from overseas, 41% see international terrorism as a greater threat than domestic terrorism, 34%, despite the fact Canada has faced signicantly more domestic terrorist attacks.

Most, 63%, are not concerned about an attack occurring at their home or workplace. And 42% of Canadians do not believe Canada is ready to confront a terrorist attack, while 26% do, and 32% dont know, nished Maggi. About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

A3

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3436%16%15%24%10%367

35-4946%16%14%17%9%483

50-6452%15%12%12%9%846

65+48%15%11%15%11%

1022

Female41%16%16%16%11%1416

Male49%15%10%18%8%

1302

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

BC43%13%16%23%6%383

AB53%12%11%14%9%349

Prairies51%14%12%14%10%353

ON45%17%12%16%11%630

Atlantic40%18%15%16%12%351

QC43%15%15%19%9%652

A4

Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission?

60%

30%

10%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPROVENOT SURE

18-3440%27%2%14%17%

35-4943%26%12%14%5%

50-6448%27%9%9%7%

65+41%28%14%10%7%

Female36%30%9%13%12%

Male50%24%8%12%7%


BC38%25%8%14%16%

AB41%29%8%13%8%

PR41%29%8%13%9%

ON45%27%9%11%8%

ATL40%30%12%10%8%

QC44%25%8%14%9%

A5

Some have suggested that Canada's role should be training local ground troops from the area to ght against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of a training mission?

70%

21%

9%


BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALLNOT SURE

18-3434%28%18%12%9%

35-4942%22%22%8%7%

50-6437%34%15%6%8%

65+40%30%15%5%10%

Female35%28%18%7%12%

Male41%28%17%9%5%

BOMBING MISSIONTRAINING MISSIONSOMETHING ELSENOTHING AT ALLNOT SURE

BC38%29%20%8%5%

AB45%22%20%6%8%

PR36%34%16%6%8%

ON38%28%16%8%11%

ATL32%34%17%8%9%

QC37%28%18%9%8%

A6

And if you had to choose Canada's role between a bombing mission, a training mission, something else, or nothing at all, what would you choose?

Bombing Mission Training Mission Something Else Nothing At All Not Sure

38%

28%

17%

8%

9%

A7

And, how satised are you with the government of Canada's response so far to Syria's refugee crisis?

VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIEDNOT SURE

18-3414%23%16%32%15%

35-4919%27%17%26%11%

50-6418%24%17%28%13%

65+22%21%19%27%10%

Female14%25%16%30%15%

Male22%24%18%27%10%

VERY SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT SATISFIEDSOMEWHAT DISSATISFIEDVERY DISSATISFIEDNOT SURE

BC14%25%17%28%16%

AB14%21%15%39%11%

PR15%21%16%37%11%

ON20%24%18%27%12%

ATL20%24%17%26%13%

QC18%27%18%25%12%

42%

46%

12%

Satisfied Dissatisfied Not Sure

A8

The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees in Canada before the end of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?


18-3429%10%23%30%8%

35-4923%20%14%40%3%

50-6420%22%15%39%4%

65+21%21%17%38%4%

Female22%18%19%36%6%

Male26%18%16%37%4%


BC27%19%15%30%10%

AB19%12%20%45%4%

PR19%12%19%45%5%

ON23%19%18%36%4%

ATL23%24%14%34%5%

QC26%18%17%35%4%

42%

53%

5%


A10

And how likely do you think a terrorist attack in Canada is? Is it very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely or not likely at all?

VERY LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALLNOT SURE

18-3420%35%25%14%6%

35-4926%41%24%6%3%

50-6438%37%16%5%4%

65+29%42%20%4%4%

Female28%44%19%6%4%

Male28%33%24%10%4%

VERY LIKELYSOMEWHAT LIKELYSOMEWHAT UNLIKELYNOT LIKELY AT ALLNOT SURE

BC27%40%22%7%3%

AB36%31%20%8%5%

PR36%33%18%8%6%

ON27%39%22%8%4%

ATL23%42%22%9%4%

QC25%40%23%8%4%

Very Likely Somewhat Likely Somewhat Unlikely Not At All Likely Not Sure

28%

38%

22%

8%4%

HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISMNOT SURE

18-3434%40%26%

35-4930%47%24%

50-6437%37%26%

65+35%41%24%

Female30%41%29%

Male38%41%21%

HOMEGROWN TERRORISMINTERNATIONAL TERRORISMNOT SURE

BC30%44%27%

AB34%40%26%

PR35%42%23%

ON36%39%25%

ATL36%36%28%

QC32%44%24%

A11

And in your opinion what is a greater threat to Canada? Is it homegrown terrorism, terrorism carried out by Canadians, or international terrorism, terrorism carried out by foreigners?

34%

41%

25%

Homegrown Terrorism International Terrorism Not Sure

YESNONOT SURE

18-3425%61%14%

35-4921%63%17%

50-6418%64%18%

65+16%64%21%

Female20%63%18%

Male21%62%17%

YESNONOT SURE

BC10%73%17%

AB25%56%19%

PR10%82%8%

ON25%57%18%

ATL16%68%17%

QC20%63%17%

A12

And, are you personally concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live or work?

20%

63%

17%

Yes No Not Sure

YESNONOT SURE

18-3436%39%25%

35-4925%42%33%

50-6421%46%34%

65+20%43%38%

Female20%43%37%

Male32%42%26%

YESNONOT SURE

BC30%43%27%

AB24%54%23%

PR24%51%25%

ON25%40%36%

ATL27%36%37%

QC27%40%33%

A12

And, in your opinion, is Canada prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?

26%

42%

32%

Yes No Not Sure

A13

SCRIPT

Currently Canadian aircraft are carrying out a bombing mission against the Islamic State, alsoknown as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of the bombing mission?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DissapproveStrongly Dissapprove

Not Sure

Some have suggested that Canadas role should be training local ground troops from the area toght against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Do you approve or disapprove of a training

mission?



Not Sure

And if you had to choose Canadas role between a bombing mission, a training mission, somethingelse, or nothing at all, what would you choose?

Bombing MissionTraining MissionSomething ElseNothing At All

Not Sure

And, how satised are you with the government of Canadas response so far to Syrias refugeecrisis?

Very SatisedSomewhat Satised

Somewhat DissatisedStrongly Dissatised

Not Sure

The Government of Canada has announced plans to settle 25,000 refugees in Canada before theend of the year. Do you approve or disapprove of this plan?



Not Sure

A14

SCRIPT

And how likely do you think a terrorist attack in Canada is? Is it very likely, somewhat likely,somewhat unlikely or not likely at all?

Very LikelySomewhat Likely

Somewhat UnlikelyNot Likely At All

Not Sure

And in your opinion what is a greater threat to Canada? Is it homegrown terrorism, terrorismcarried out by Canadians, or international terrorism, terrorism carried out by foreigners?

Homegrown TerrorismInternational Terrorism

Not Sure

And, are you personally concerned about a terrorist attack in the area where you live or work?

YesNo

Not Sure

And, in your opinion, is Canada prepared to deal with a terrorist attack, or not?

YesNo

Not Sure

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Mainstreet Research poll: Nov. 19

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