Mainstreaming Hazard Risk Assessment for Preparedness Inderjit Claire Vice President Sales, RMSI 11.
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Transcript of Mainstreaming Hazard Risk Assessment for Preparedness Inderjit Claire Vice President Sales, RMSI 11.
Mainstreaming Hazard Risk Assessment for Preparedness
Inderjit Claire
Vice President Sales, RMSI
1
www.rmsi.com
Probabilistic Framework for Risk Modeling - Earthquake
Where?
How large?
How often?
How strong are the ground motions?
How do they attenuate?
How are they amplified?
Where is the exposure?
What is its value?
What types of buildings?
How are the buildings damaged?
What are the financial implications to local/provincial federal govt. stakeholders, insurers and reinsurers?
CalculateDamageCalculateDamage
Assess Earthquake
MotionFinancial
LossFinancial
Loss Apply Exposure
Apply Exposure
Generate Stoch. Events
Generate Stoch. Events
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Vulnerability
Scale Indices Users
National National
comparisons of vulnerability
Eligibility for adaptation funding
Regional
Multiple dimension profiles of regional
vulnerability
Regional agencies: Programme design
Local
Profiles of vulnerable
situations or syndromes
Local offices: Project evaluation
Eco-systems
Water Other
sectors Food Health
Settle-ment
Vulnerability parameters
At what scale the
vulnerability mapping
needs to be done
At what scale the
vulnerability mapping
needs to be done
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Vulnerability has a Spatial Component
Which places are more vulnerable to a hazard?– Targeting geographical region, socio-economic class
Who are the vulnerable people?– Relative vulnerability among households and
individuals
What should be done?– Link to intervention/ adaptation
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Social Vulnerability
Coping Ability – Resistance– Resilience
Social Environment – Age
– Gender
– Ethnicity
– Household type
Economic Environment – Income and Assets
– Insurance
– Debts
Overlay environmental hazard maps with vulnerability maps to determine areas vulnerable to hazards
Add values, weights, factors for each variable in each layer to represent “Total Vulnerability”
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Case Study 1 - The India Example
Perils – Earthquakes, Tsunami, Floods, etc.
For effective risk mitigation, it is critical to undertake risk assessment studies to know what, and how much is at risk
Risk reduction can be achieved through multiple risk transfer strategies
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Earthquake Hazard Mapping
100 year Return period earthquake hazard map of Gujarat
100 year Return period earthquake hazard map of Maharashtra
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Flood Hazard Map - Mahanadi delta
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Block level Wind speed (Orissa 1999)
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Exposure Mapping
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Cyclone Average Annual Loss
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Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives
Business need
– Maldives was among the most severely affected countries hit by the Asian Tsunami on December 26, 2004
– UNDP initiated a study to analyze Maldives’ high level of vulnerability and to avoid the present scale of losses and damage in the future
– Recovery and development planning to be based on Disaster Risk Management (DRM) strategy
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Solution– Countrywide study: 200 inhabited
islands out of a total of 1190 islands - completed in a challenging timeframe of 6 months
– Hazards: Tsunami, Earthquake, Storms, Floods, and Climate Change
– Vulnerability: Physical and Social
– Exposures: Buildings, infrastructure and agriculture
– GIS base map developed
– GIS and CAT risk modeling integration
– Hazard and risk maps developed
• Assessments represented on a 5 point ordinal scale
Historical data
Physical
Social
Risk Profiling
Individual hazards and multi hazard
Historical data
Hazard Assessment
Physical Social
Risk Profiling
Individual hazards and multi hazard
Risk indices by island
Weights
Hazard zones
Vulnerability Analysis
StormTsunami
Earthquake
SLR
Exposure
Damages/Losses
Affected Population
Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives
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Benefits
– Comprehensive report and base maps generated
– Government of Maldives used the report as a key input for planning developmental strategies to mitigate future disasters
– First GIS base map of Maldives developed
Case Study 2: Developing a Disaster Risk Profile for Maldives
3-D view of bathymetry of Maldives (depth in meters)
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– Earthquake estimation loss model to evaluate earthquake risks for better risk management
– Data Model and Software Application for damage computation along the sub-crustal Vrancea zone
– Compute direct and indirect potential damages following an earthquake
Case Study 3: Romania Earthquake Scenario
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The software enables the users and decision makers to:– Assess damages– Prioritize and plan relief and rehabilitation
requirements– Prepare and train emergency workers– Prepare action plans regarding essential and strategic
facilities– Import new earthquake scenarios data and visualize
their impact
Benefits
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A sample scenario
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The user logs in
with his designated
credentials
Authentication
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13 precompiled
events
User selects the
475 yrs return
earthquake
Choice of Earthquake Scenario
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Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Essential Services -
hospitals, police
stations etc.
Public
High Risk
Buildings
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Casualties
• Death• Injuries
Subsistence (long & short term)
• Shelter• Food• Energy• Water
Social Impact
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Roads & Bridges
Railways & Bridges
Airports
Ports
Water Supply Systems
Sewerage Systems
Power Grids
Communication Systems
Gas & Fuel Pipelines
Lifelines
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Chemical Plants
Nuclear Plants
Dams
Hydrotechnical Works
High Risk Facilities
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Fire
Explosion
Secondary Hazard
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Select single or
multiple counties
Region Selection
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Map Output
Report Output
Choice of Maps & Reports
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Footprint of the ground motion of the earthquake in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)
This study covers 17 counties out of the 32 counties of Romania
Additional data for the other counties can be added by the user in the future
Footprint Of An Earthquake
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Residential Buildings Collapsed In An Earthquake of Magnitude 7.4
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•Red – Blocked
•Yellow – Affected
•Green - Not
affected
Railway Routes Affected by an Earthquake
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Priority of rescue
and rehabilitation
work
Intervention Priority For Commercial Buildings
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County view
Areas Affected By Earthquake
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Locality View
Areas Affected By Earthquake
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Impact on Residential Buildings and Dwellings
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Number of Buildings Collapsed Per Locality
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• Earthquake Scenario
• County name
• Locality name
• Type of construction
• Number of stories
• Total number of buildings
• Number of buildings affected
• Number of buildings collapsed
For Commercial Buildings
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• Earthquake scenario considered
• County name
• Location name
• Chemical plant name
• Name of chemical
• Type of chemical
• Whether the facility is affected
• Probability of accident
For Chemical Facilities
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Essential Facilities Buildings
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Human Casualty Figures
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Subsistence Requirements
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Water Supply Systems Damage
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Effective Management of Hazard Risks
Integrate Disaster Risk Management into the national, regional, and local economic development process
Undertake detailed risk and vulnerability assessment studies to gather accurate information for ex-ante pre hazard risk management
– What is the country’s hazard exposure
– What is the nature of hazards and their disruptive characteristics
– Where is the risk concentrated
– What can be the economic and social losses
– Who are the people at risk – individuals and groups
– What economic activities are vulnerable
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Benefits of Risk and Vulnerability Assessments
With in-depth understanding of the potential economic losses, countries would be
– Better placed to review the physical, human, and financial exposures
– Determine the level of risk that can be accepted and the level of risk that should be mitigated
The paradigm shift
– Fate Choice
– Reactive Proactive
– Recovery Mitigation
– Wait and watch Anticipate and prevent
– Ex-post Ex-ante
– Crisis management Risk management
– Ad-hoc efforts Comprehensive approach
– Development at risk Sustainable development
