Maha Energy - Introduce€¦ · Maha Energy 9 March 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 4 Maha in brief Maha...

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Maha Energy

Reason: Initiating coverage

Company sponsored research

Not rated

Production blossoming

E&P producing 3.2kboe/d from 41.8mill boe 2P reserves

Strong growth backed by robust capital structure

NAV: SEK 32.8/s at USD 65/b, SEK 16.2/s at USD 45/b

E&P with 3.2kboe/d production and 41.8mill boe 2P reserves

Maha Energy is an oil and gas producer with 41.8mill boe of 2P reserves.

It operates two fields in Brazil, Tie and Tartaruga, with combined net

production of 3.2kboe/d, and has minor operations from the LAK field in

the US. The company strategy is a combination of production, pursuing

portfolio upside through production drilling/appraisal and some modest

near-field exploration activity. Simultaneously, Maha Energy is seeking

further growth through M&A opportunities with a broad mandate focusing

on onshore oil and gas – predominantly producing or near production.

Strong growth backed by robust capital structure

Maha has invested USD 42.6m in its Brazil operations since it acquired

the assets in 2017. The majority of the infrastructure investments have

been done, and future investments are expected to have a direct

production effect. Since the assets were acquired, production has

increased from 1.6kboed/d to 3.2kboe/d in Q4’19. We estimate that the

company could reach plateau production of 6.7mboe/d by 2023. We

estimate USD 64m of capex to reach plateau. We find that Maha has a

robust capital structure, with NIBD of USD 8.2m at Q4’19. At USD 65/bbl

oil we estimate USD 232m (SEK 20.5/sh) of FCF ‘20e-‘23e, while at flat

USD 45/bbl we estimate FCF of USD 103m (SEK 9.1/sh) for the same

period.

NAV: SEK 32.8/s at USD 65/bbl, SEK 16.2/s at USD 45/bbl

We find that smaller listed E&P companies in the Nordics trade at P/NAV

of 0.3-0.6x (based on ABGSCe NAV with USD 65/bbl oil price

assumption). Assuming Brent at USD 65/bbl, we estimate a NAV of SEK

32.8/share which implies a P/NAV of 0.40x. Assuming a USD 45/bbl oil

price, we estimate a NAV of SEK 16.2/share. Testing NAV sensitivity to

oil prices or production, we find that a 15% reduction to our USD 65/bbl

Brent oil price assumption has a 25% negative impact on NAV, while a

20% reduction to our production profiles have a 29% negative impact on

our NAV.

06/03/2020

Performance

Equity Research - 09 March 2020 06:47 CET

USDm 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Sales 0 12 33 48 67

EBITDA 0 3 22 35 52

EBITDA margin (%) nm 27.4 67.2 72.8 77.5

EBIT adj 0 1 19 29 44

EBIT adj margin (%) nm 10.6 55.9 61.1 64.8

Pretax profit 0 -3 15 25 39

EPS rep 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

EPS adj 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

Sales growth (%) na na 168.1 44.4 39.5

EPS growth (%) na high 895.1 -28.3 69.0

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data

Lead analyst: Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen

Eirik Thune Øritsland

Share price (SEK) 13.0

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, Sweden

MAHAA.ST/MAHAA SS

MCap (SEKm) 1,304

MCap (EURm) 123.1

Net debt (EURm) -18

No. of shares (m) 100

Free float (%) 94.2

Av. daily volume (k) 9.9

Next event Q1 report: 26 May

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Mar

17

May

17

Jul 1

7

Se

p 1

7

No

v 17

Jan

18

Mar

18

May

18

Jul 1

8

Se

p 1

8

No

v 18

Jan

19

Mar

19

May

19

Jul 1

9

Se

p 1

9

No

v 19

Jan

20

Maha Energy OSE GI

1m 3m 12m

Absolute (%) -34.9 -33.8 -29.5

OSE GI (%) -14.3 -11.7 -10.4

Source: FactSet

2018 2019 2020e

P/E (x) 5.7 14.7 4.5

P/E adj (x) 5.7 14.7 4.5

P/BVPS (x) 2.04 3.01 1.15

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 7.8 2.3

EV/EBIT adj (x) 8.2 9.3 2.7

EV/sales (x) 4.57 5.66 1.77

ROE adj (%) 43.9 25.0 31.9

Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) 3.1 0.6 18.8

Lease adj. FCF yld (%) 3.1 0.6 18.8

Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.5 0.2 -0.4

Lease adj. ND/EBITDA 0.5 0.2 -0.4

Maha Energy

9 March 2020 ABG Sundal Collier 2

Oil price estimates (Brent USD/bbl)

Sundal Collier, Company data

Business area breakdown, sales, USDm


Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, USDm


OpportunitiesContingent on positive results from testing operations, and

an expected renew al of the Tartaruga Block concession, a

full f ield development could increase the commercial lifetime

of the field and utilisation of the reservoir. With its robust

capital structure, the company is also w ell-positioned for

more M&A to diversify its operations. Also, Lak Ranch is not

included in our valuation, providing interesting opportunities

for our estimates.

RisksMaha Energy is exposed to adverse changes in oil and gas

prices. The functional currencies are USD, SEK and BRL,

w hile the trading currency is SEK, i.e. it is exposed to

adverse currency fluctuations. The company is also

exposed to its contractors’ ability to execute projects

according to the schedule and on budget, including

infrastructure in place and offtake capacity, w ith limited

diversif ication betw een assets. Operating in several

countries, w ith various political and regulatory regimes, the

company is exposed to adverse changes in regulatory and

political regimes.

5052

61

67

74 75

6863

69

62 63

5860

65 65 65 65 65 65 65

0

10

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30

40

50

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70

80

Q2

17

Q3

17

Q4

17

Q1

18

Q2

18

Q3

18

Q4

18

Q1

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Q2

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Q3

19

Q4

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Q1

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e

Q2

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Q3

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Q4

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Q3

21

e

Q4

21

e

Q1

22

e

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Tie Tartaruga

Sales

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT

Company descriptionMaha Energy is an oil and producer operating tw o fields in

Brazil (Tie and Tartaruga). It has minor operations in the LAK

field in the US. Its strategy is a combination of production,

pursuing upside in its portfolio from production drilling and

appraisal, and modest near-f ield exploration activity. It also

looks for grow th through M&A w ith a broad mandate,

focusing on onshore oil and gas. Its main operation is

enhanced oil recovery (EOR) through the development of

proven hydrocarbon reserves.

Maha Energy


Contents Maha in brief ................................................................................................ 4

Estimates ..................................................................................................... 6

Company history ........................................................................................ 10

Company assets ......................................................................................... 11

Company strategy ...................................................................................... 15

Sensitivity analysis ..................................................................................... 16

Country résumé .......................................................................................... 20

Oil market outlook ...................................................................................... 23

Key oil market estimates ............................................................................ 25

Fiscal terms ................................................................................................ 29

Management .............................................................................................. 30

Board of Directors ...................................................................................... 31

Shareholder structure ................................................................................. 32

Main risks ................................................................................................... 33

Maha Energy


Maha in brief

Maha Energy is an oil and gas producer with 41.8mill boe of 2P reserves. It

operates two fields in Brazil, Tie and Tartaruga, with combined net production of

3.2kboe/d, and has minor operations at the LAK field in the US. The company

strategy is a combination of production, pursuing portfolio upside through production

drilling and appraisal and some modest near-field exploration activity.

Simultaneously, Maha Energy is seeking further growth through M&A opportunities

with a broad mandate focusing on onshore oil and gas – predominantly producing or

near production. The company’s main operations involve enhanced oil recovery

(EOR) through the development of proven hydrocarbon reserves, limiting

exploration and reservoir risks. This strategy has proven successful on the Tie field,

where production increased from 1,339boe/d to 2,814boe/d since the acquisition in

Q2’17.

2P reserves by field (mmboe) as of YE 2019

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data

Net production by field


Maha has invested USD 42.6m in its Brazil operations since it acquired the assets

in 2017. The majority of the infrastructure investments have been done, and future

investments are expected to have a direct production effect. Since the assets were

acquired, production has increased from 1.6kboed/d to 3.2kboe/d in Q4’19. We

estimate that Maha could reach plateau production of 6.7kboe/d within 2023, and

estimate USD 64m of capex to reach plateau. This growth is supported by what we

deem a robust capital structure, with NIBD of USD 8.2m at Q4’19. At USD 65/bbl oil

we estimate USD 232m (SEK 20.5/sh) of FCF ‘20e-‘23e, while at flat USD 45/bbl we

estimate FCF of USD 103m (SEK 9.1/sh) for the same period.

We find that smaller listed E&P companies in the Nordics trade at P/NAV of 0.3-

0.6x. Assuming Brent at USD 65/bbl, we estimate a NAV of SEK 32.8/share which

implies a P/NAV of 0.40x. Assuming a USD 45/bbl oil price, we estimate a NAV of

SEK 16.2/share. Testing NAV sensitivity to oil prices or production, we find that a

15% reduction to our USD 65/bbl Brent oil price assumption has a 25% negative

impact on NAV, while a 20% reduction to our production profiles have a 29%

negative impact on our NAV.

Tie f ield, 19.818, 47%

Tartaruga, 13.200, 32%

LAK Ranch, 8.815, 21%

910

1,803

3,041

4,334

5,819

6,4376,761 6,520

6,2636,068

5,473

4,545

3,775

3,135

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

boe/d

Tie field Tartaruga LAK Ranch

910

1,803

3,041

4,334

5,819

6,4376,761 6,520

6,2636,068

5,473

4,545

3,775

3,135

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

boe/d

Tie field Tartaruga LAK Ranch

Maha Energy


NAV sensitivity to different oil prices


NAV sensitivity to production deviations (based on USD 65/bbl oil price)


Maha Energy NAV year-end 2020 USD 45 USD 50 USD 55 USD 60 USD 65 USD 70

WI

Producing assets

Tie field 100% 12.4 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0

Tartaruga 75% 4.0 5.1 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.5

LAK Ranch 99% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Core GAV 16.3 20.1 23.7 27.4 31.0 34.5

NIBD YE 2020 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.6

Core NAV 16.2 20.5 24.7 28.9 33.0 37.1

P/NAV 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x

Oil price sensitivity (Brent)

SEK/sh

Maha Energy NAV year-end 2020 -10% -15% -20% -25% -30%

WI

Producing assets

Tie field 100% 19.7 18.3 16.9 15.5 14.1

Tartaruga 75% 7.1 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.4

LAK Ranch 99% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Core GAV 26.9 24.8 22.7 20.6 18.5

NIBD YE 2020 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1

Core NAV 28.1 25.8 23.4 21.0 18.6

P/NAV 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.7x

Production deviation

SEK/sh

Maha Energy


Estimates

This section shows a summary of our key estimates and assumptions. The

underlying assumptions are discussed in more detail in the “company assets”

chapter.

Production estimate

The company plans for a significant increase in production towards plateau. We

estimate average production of 6,761 boe/d in 2023 as the Tartaruga field reaches

plateau, and a 17% depletion thereafter until reserves are uncommercial.

Production


2P reserves


Cost estimates

We estimate production costs of around USD 6/boe. The capex estimates reflect the

cost to maintain the projected production, including modest abandonment costs.

Cost of operations


Capex


910

1,803

3,041

4,334

5,8196,437

6,761 6,5206,263

6,0685,473

4,545

3,775

3,135

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

b/d

Net liquids boe/d Net Gas (boe/d)

13

27

3433

4240

3836

3331

2926

2423

2120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

mm

boe

13

27

3433

4240

3836

3331

2926

2423

2120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

mm

boe

6 7

9

11

1314

1413

1312

11

109

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

US

D/b

oe

US

Dm

Opex (Left hand axis) Unit production costs (Right hand axis)

16

28

19

2322

6

12 12 12

6 6 6 6

-

3

5

8

10

13

15

18

20

23

25

28

30

US

Dm

Maha Energy


Price realisation

The historical achieved discount to Brent is approximately USD 7/bbl. The discounts

rely on agreements with off-takers based on delivered volumes. The chart below

shows our estimates for oil price realisation. Note also that in the scenario testing,

discounts are assumed to be fixed while the reference price is changed.

Financials

We estimate the production increase to generate accumulated free cash flow of

USD 232m throughout 2023 assuming a USD 65/bbl oil price. The main driver for

the strong FCF outlook is a combination of material investments completion,

combined with a higher production base.

Revenues1 and EBITDA estimates


Cash flow

s


1 Revenues after royalties.

12

33

48

67

94

105110

107102

98

88

74

61

51

3

22

35

52

77

8691

8783

80

71

57

45

36

0

20

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120

US

Dm

Revenue EBITDA

2

18

29

48

76

86

91

80

6259

53

43

34

26

-34

3 0

28

53

65

85

69

5148

47

37

2820

2

16

28

1923 22

612 12 12

6 6 6 6

-40

-20

0

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80

100

US

Dm

Cash flow from operations Free cash flow Capex

2

18

32

65

81

9395

72

6259

53

43

34

26

-34

39

43

6875

93

64

5552

51

41

32

2416

23 22

1318

28 8 8

2 2 2 2

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

US

Dm

Cash flow from operations Free cash flow Capex

Realised oil price and Brent


5651

43

52

60

6668

61

56

61

55 5451 53

58 5854

50

52

61

67

75 75

6863

69

62 63

58 6065 65

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

US

D/b

bl

Oil realised price (USD/bbl) Reference price, avg. Brent (USD/bbl)

Maha Energy


Capital structure

As at YE’19, the NIBD was 8.2m. The company has a SEK 300m (USD 31m) bond

outstanding of 12% semi-annual interest with maturity in 2021. In addition to a

minimum cash component of USD 5m, covenants include NIBD below, or equal to,

3x EBITDA, and ICR above 2.25x, on a 12-month rolling basis. The company has a

sound capital structure, which is estimated to improve further as the Tie field

matures.

Debt


Credit metrics


31 33 33 32 30 31 31 30 30 29 31 31 31 31 31 31

1814

11 9 10 911 10 10 8.4 8.17

3.2 2

-4

-20

-30

-45

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

US

Dm

Gross IB debt Net debt

1.71.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1

-0.1 -0.6 -0.8

-2.8

0.6

2.7 2.8 2.84.3

6.05.3

8.37.2

5.6 6.1

8.3

12.1

15.116.1

NIBD/EBITDA EBIT/net interest

Maha Energy


Estimates table


Maha Energy (FactSet)

New estimates Cons. Cons. Cons.

USDm Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e

Income Statement

Net sales 10 12 14 12 12 14 19 22 33 48 67 94 105 94 118 114

EBITDAX 8 9 11 8 8 11 15 18 22 36 52 77 86

EBITDA 8 9 11 8 8 11 15 18 22 35 52 77 86 65 85 87

Depreciation -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -9 -11 -13 -11 -12 -20

EBIT 6 8 9 6 6 9 13 16 19 29 44 66 73 54 74 67

PTP 5 7 8 5 5 8 12 15 15 25 39 65 74 50 70 67

Tax -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 11 -5 -6 -10 -11 -15 -21 -13

Net profit 4 6 7 3 5 7 10 12 26 20 33 55 63 35 50 54

No. of avg. shares (m), basic 98 99 99 100 100 100 100 100 98 99 100 100 100 100.1 100.1 100.1

No. of avg. shares (m), diluted 107 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 108 109 109 109

EPS (SEK), basic 0.40 0.58 0.65 0.25 0.44 0.63 0.94 1.18 1.87 3.19 5.27 6.00 3.21 4.30 4.73

EPS (SEK), diluted 0.37 0.53 0.59 0.23 0.41 0.58 0.87 1.09 1.72 2.94 4.85 5.53

Key BS and CF figures

Gross interest bearing debt 30 30 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 2 2

Gross cash 20 21 20 22 27 28 35 51 20 22 51 75 80

NIBD 10 10 8 8 3 2 -4 -20 11 8 -20 -73 -78 -19 -62 -96

NIBD/share (SEK) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -2 1 -1.9 -7 -8

Book equity 74 82 83 88 92 99 109 121 69 88 121 176 179

Book equity/share (SEK) 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 12 8 12 17 17 12 17

Operating cash f low 7 6 10 5 7 10 14 17 18 29 48 76 86 60 80

Capex -7 -7 -9 -6 -2 -9 -7 -2 -16 -28 -19 -23 -22 -21 -20

Free cash f low 0 0 1 0 5 1 7 16 3 0 28 53 65 39 60

Free cash f low /share (SEK) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.7 5.1 6.2

Other key figures and assumptions

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Brent 63 58 60 65 65 64 62 65 65

WTI 57 53 55 60 60 0 57 60 60

Realised price/boe (USD) 52 57 51 49 46 47 52 52 59 52 49 52 53

SEK/USD 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

Field-by-field production (boe/d):

Tie f ield 2,516 2,632 3,171 2,814 2,814 3,377 4,052 4,862 1,718 2,783 3,776 5,062 5,062

Tartaruga Block 139 83 391 320 432 484 562 630 57 233 527 730 1,350

LAK Ranch 13 24 31 31 32 31 30 29 28 25 31 28 25

Total production 2,668 2,739 3,593 3,165 3,278 3,892 4,644 5,521 1,803 3,041 4,334 5,819 6,437

Of w hich is gas 6% 7% 8% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 8% 8% 12% 12% 11%

Other key figures:

Unit production costs/boe (USD) 5 6 6 7 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.3 10 6 6.1 5 6

Depreciation cost/boe (USD) 6 5 5 5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 6 5 5.4 5 5

Reported tax rate -16% -10% -15% -47% -15% -15% -15% -15% 70% -20% -15% -15% -15%

Maha Energy


Company history

Maha Energy’s history is defined by M&A activities. The company was established

in 2013 through the acquisition of a 60% working interest in the LAK Ranch heavy

oil field that was increased to 99% in 2014.

Thereafter, a non-operated 50% working interest in the producing Manitou heavy oil

field in Canada was acquired. In addition, Maha Energy earned a 30% working

interest in the Marwayne field through a farm-in deal in June 2014.

The company entered into a definitive purchase and sale agreement to acquire a

37.5% working interest in the Tartaruga development block in December 2016, and

thereafter, an additional working interest in the field of 37.5% was acquired. Upon

completion of the acquisitions in early 2017, the company received operatorship in

the Tartaruga Block.

Maha Energy was listed on the Nasdaq OMX First North in July 2016, raising SEK

108m.

Within February 2017, the company entered into a purchase and sale agreement to

divest its working interest in the Manitou and the Marwayne fields in Canada.

The company then acquired the Brazil operations of Gran Tierra Energy in July

2017. The transaction included six onshore concession agreements in the

Reconcavo Basin, in addition to the Tie field.

Maha Energy


Company assets

Maha Energy’s asset base is concentrated between three fields: the Tie and

Tartaruga fields in Brazil and the LAK Ranch in the US.

Asset map



The company has approximately 41.8mill boe of 2P reserves. The Tie field accounts

for 47% following drilling and completion of the Attic well, which resulted in a 62%

increase in Tie field 2P reserves.

2P reserves development


2P reserves by field (mill boe) as of YE 2019


MT

WY

ID

WA

OR

NV

UTCA CO

AK

HI

AZNM

TX

OKAR

LA

KY

TN

MS AL GA

FL

SC

NC

VAWV

CT RI

MA

ME

VTNH

ND

SD

NE

KS MO

IA

MNWI

IL INOH

MI

NY

PA

MD

DE

NJ

LAK Ranch

Guy ana

Chile

Uruguay

Argentina

French GuianaSurinam

Boliv ia

Colombia

Venezuela

Peru

Brazil

Ecuador

Falkland Islands

Paraguay

Trinidad and Tobago

TartarugaTie

12.9

27.3

34.332.8

41.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

mm

boe

Tie f ield, 19.818, 47%

Tartaruga, 13.200, 32%

LAK Ranch, 8.815, 21%

Maha Energy


Tie field The onshore Brazil Tie field accounted for approximately 89% of Maha Energy’s

total Q4’19 production, of which 87% was liquids. When Maha acquired the Tie field

in 2017, it produced 1,339 boe/d from one well (GTE-4). Water injection and the

recompletion of a shut-in well (GTE-3) increased the production to 1,718 boe/d

throughout 2018, and in Q3’19 production from the field reached 3,171 boe/d

following the completion of the Attic well, which also increased 2P field reserves

from 10.734 mmbbl to 17.735 mmbbl.

The Tie field delivers crude oil to two Petrobras terminals, Carmo and Camboata, as

well as a local refinery. The crude is sold to the Carmo terminal at a discount to

Brent of approximately USD 6.3/bbl. The first 22,680 bbl delivered per month from

the Camboata station are sold at a discount of USD 10.49/bbl, and USD 6.09

thereafter. For crude oil sold to the refinery, the discount is USD 8/bbl.

The total offtake capacity from the field is 4,850b/d, with Petrobras’ allotment of

1,850b/d for the two terminals and the local refinery receiving approval from the

Brazilian Authorities to increase refined oil products volume from 2,200b/d to

3,000b/d.

The company plans further initiatives on the field and a continued increase in

production volumes toward the total offtake capacity of 4,850 b/d, which sets the

production plateau. Maha Energy plans to drill eight additional wells of

approximately USD 5.5m per well throughout 2026 to maintain the production

plateau rate over the corresponding period. Thereafter, production from the field is

estimated to decline with a rate of approximately 17% sequentially until the

exploitation license expires in 2039.

Annual fixed costs are estimated to total over USD 4m, while variable costs mostly

relate to transportation and are estimated at USD 2.6/bbl.

Production estimates


FCF estimates


723

1,718

2,783

3,776

5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062

4,631

3,844

3,191

2,648

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

boe/d

Net liquids boe/d Net Gas (boe/d) Total offtake capacity (b/d)

723

1,718

2,783

3,776

5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062

4,631

3,844

3,191

2,648

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

boe/d


723

1,718

2,783

3,776

5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062 5,062

4,631

3,844

3,191

2,648

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

boe/d


2629

51

57

63

51

37 37 39

30

23

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US

Dm

2629

51

57

63

51

37 37 39

30

23

18

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

US

Dm

Maha Energy


The Tartaruga Block Maha Energy owns and operates a 75% working interest (Petrobras holds 25%) in

the Brazilian Tartaruga onshore light oil field. The company has shut in its 7TTG

well due to workover programmes and associated downhole problems, resulting in

fluctuating production volumes. During Q4’19, production averaged 320 boe/d from

one well (7TTG well).

Gross handling capacity on the field is approximately 500-800b/d, but the company

plans to increase processing capacity to handle gross 2,500b/d and 500 mscf/d,

which is set to come onstream during Q2’20 upon completion of testing operations

of the MH-1 and 107D wells at the company estimated cost of gross USD 2.5m.

Maha Energy plans an incremental increase in production as capacity comes

onstream.

The Tartaruga Block concession is currently set to expire in 2025. Although

management sees a license renewal as highly probable, the investment programme

is based on the current license. Assuming that the license is not renewed, the

company plans to drill three additional wells on the field. Contingent on results from

the MH-1 wells and partner approval, the company plans to drill one well (MH-2) in

Q4’20 at the company estimated cost of gross USD 8.3m. The two remaining wells

are scheduled to be drilled in 2022 at the estimated cost of gross USD 13.5m.

Variable costs mostly relate to transportation and are estimated to total

approximately USD 5/bbl, i.e. somewhat higher transportation costs compared to

the Tie field. Annual fixed costs are estimated to total over USD 1.0m.

Crude oil from the Tartaruga Block is trucked approximately 65km and sold at a

premium to Brent of USD 0.16/bbl to Petrobras.

Production estimates


FCF estimates


160 57

233

527

730

1,350

1,676

1,438

1,183

988

824

684

567 471

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

boe/d

Net liquids boe/d Net Gas (boe/d) Net production capacity (boe/d)

2.73.8

3

7

22

17

13

10

8

6

4

3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

US

Dm

Maha Energy


LAK Ranch Maha Energy operates a 99% working interest in the LAK Ranch heavy oil field. The

field has remained in a pre-production phase since acquisition as successful EOR

mechanisms have not been recognised. The company is working towards a full field

development using a hot water injection scheme, but remains in the pre-production

phase as the company is monitoring the effect of the injections and production

operations. As such, it is not included in our valuation, providing interesting

opportunities to our estimates. 2P reserves from the field is approximately 8.8

million barrels.

Maha Energy


Company strategy

Maha has a defined what it calls a 40:40:20 strategy. This means that it targets

balancing the risk of its asset portfolio to 40% production base, 40% appraisal work

and 20% relating to near-field exploration activities, both for the currently held, and

potential assets gained through M&A.

We like Maha Energy’s strategy of being a full-fledge E&P with a combination of

healthy production, actively pursuing portfolio upside through production drilling and

appraisal and some modest near-field exploration activity. Simultaneously, Maha

Energy is pursuing further M&A with a broad mandate focusing on onshore oil and

gas – predominantly producing or near production - while excluding some areas of

operation in which it does not have an operational edge (e.g. US shale) or where

geopolitical risk is deemed too high (e.g. West Africa and FSU).

Maha Energy


Sensitivity analysis

In this section we test the estimates on several parameters, including oil price and

production volumes.

Oil price sensitivity To test the oil price sensitivity, we estimate the FCF for different oil prices and its

corresponding impact on the NAV.

Oil price sensitivity to FCF from the Tie field


Oil price sensitivity to FCF from Tartaruga


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e

US

Dm

USD 45 USD 50 USD 55 USD 60 USD 65 USD 70

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e

US

Dm

USD 45 USD 50 USD 55 USD 60 USD 65 USD 70

NAV sensitivity to different oil prices


Maha Energy NAV year-end 2020 USD 45 USD 50 USD 55 USD 60 USD 65 USD 70

WI

Producing assets

Tie field 100% 12.4 15.0 17.5 20.0 22.5 25.0

Tartaruga 75% 4.0 5.1 6.3 7.4 8.4 9.5

LAK Ranch 99% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Core GAV 16.3 20.1 23.7 27.4 31.0 34.5

NIBD YE 2020 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.6

Core NAV 16.2 20.5 24.7 28.9 33.0 37.1

P/NAV 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.4x 0.4x

Oil price sensitivity (Brent)

SEK/sh

Maha Energy


The table below shows detailed estimates for a scenario in which the oil price

remains around USD 45/bbl.

Estimates in a scenario with Brent of USD 45/bbl and WTI of USD 40/bbl


Maha Energy (FactSet)

New estimates Cons. Cons. Cons.

USDm Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e

Income Statement

Net sales 10 12 14 12 9 10 12 15 33 48 46 61 69 94 118 114

EBITDAX 8 9 11 8 5 7 8 11 22 36 31 44 50

EBITDA 8 9 11 8 5 7 8 11 22 35 31 44 50 65 85 87

Depreciation -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 -6 -9 -11 -13 -11 -12 -20

EBIT 6 8 9 6 4 5 6 8 19 29 22 33 37 54 74 67

PTP 5 7 8 5 2 4 5 7 15 25 18 32 37 50 70 67

Tax -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 11 -5 -3 -5 -6 -15 -21 -13

Net profit 4 6 7 3 2 3 4 6 26 20 15 27 32 35 50 54

No. of avg. shares (m), basic 98 99 99 100 100 100 100 100 98 99 100 100 100 100.1 100.1 100.1

No. of avg. shares (m), diluted 107 109 109 109 109 109 109 109 108 109 109 109

EPS (SEK), basic 0.40 0.58 0.65 0.25 0.20 0.29 0.41 0.55 1.87 1.46 2.60 3.04 3.21 4.30 4.73

EPS (SEK), diluted 0.37 0.53 0.59 0.23 0.18 0.27 0.38 0.51 1.72 1.34 2.40 2.80

Key BS and CF figures

Gross interest bearing debt 30 30 29 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 2 2

Gross cash 20 21 20 22 25 21 22 30 20 22 30 21 19

NIBD 10 10 8 8 6 9 9 1 11 8 1 -19 -17 -19 -62 -96

NIBD/share (SEK) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0 1 0.1 -2 -2

Book equity 74 82 83 88 90 93 97 103 69 88 103 130 132

Book equity/share (SEK) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 8 10 12 13 12 17

Operating cash f low 7 6 10 5 4 6 7 9 18 29 26 43 50 60 80

Capex -7 -7 -9 -6 -2 -9 -7 -2 -16 -28 -19 -23 -22 -21 -20

Free cash f low 0 0 1 0 2 -3 0 8 3 0 7 20 28 39 60

Free cash f low /share (SEK) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 2.7

Other key figures and assumptions

Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Brent 63 45 45 45 45 64 45 45 45

WTI 57 40 40 40 40 0 40 40 40

Realised price/boe (USD) 52 57 51 49 34 34 34 34 59 52 34 34 35

SEK/USD 9.3 9.3 9.8 9.4 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6

Field-by-field production (boe/d):

Tie f ield 2,516 2,632 3,171 2,814 2,814 3,377 4,052 4,862 1,718 2,783 3,776 5,062 5,062

Tartaruga Block 139 83 391 320 432 484 562 630 57 233 527 730 1,350

LAK Ranch 13 24 31 31 32 31 30 29 28 25 31 28 25

Total production 2,668 2,739 3,593 3,165 3,278 3,892 4,644 5,521 1,803 3,041 4,334 5,819 6,437

Of w hich is gas 6% 7% 8% 12% 11% 11% 12% 12% 8% 8% 12% 12% 11%

Other key figures:

Unit production costs/boe (USD) 5 6 6 7 7.0 6.4 5.8 5.3 10 6 6.1 5 6

Depreciation cost/boe (USD) 6 5 5 5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 6 5 5.4 5 5

Reported tax rate -16% -10% -15% -47% -15% -15% -15% -15% 70% -20% -15% -15% -15%

Maha Energy


Production sensitivity Production from the Tie field declined during Q4’19 following commissioning work,

restricted deliveries due to a three-day Petrobras strike and electric fault causing a

24 hour shutdown. In addition, production can be affected by externalities such as

deliveries, rig availabilities, permitting and logistics. To address the potential impact

from production deviations, we estimate the FCF sensitivities to different production

deviations and the corresponding impact on the NAV.

Production sensitivity to FCF from Tie field


Production sensitivity to FCF from Tartaruga


Cost of capital There appears to be only moderate sensitivity to changes in cost of capital. This can

be explained by the near-term production.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e

US

Dm

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10%

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2019 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024eU

SD

m

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10%

NAV sensitivity to production deviations


Sensitivity to cost of capital and oil price


Maha Energy NAV year-end 2020 -10% -15% -20% -25% -30%

WI

Producing assets

Tie field 100% 19.7 18.3 16.9 15.5 14.1

Tartaruga 75% 7.1 6.5 5.8 5.1 4.4

LAK Ranch 99% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Core GAV 26.9 24.8 22.7 20.6 18.5

NIBD YE 2020 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1

Core NAV 28.1 25.8 23.4 21.0 18.6

P/NAV 0.5x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 0.7x

Production deviation

SEK/sh

NAV sensitivity (SEK/sh)

37 45 50 55 60 65 70

9% 17.7 22.3 26.8 31.2 35.6 40.0

10% 17.2 21.6 26.0 30.4 34.7 39.0

11% 16.7 21.1 25.4 29.6 33.8 38.0

12% 16.2 20.5 24.7 28.9 33.0 37.1

13% 15.8 20.0 24.1 28.2 32.2 36.3

14% 15.4 19.5 23.5 27.6 31.5 35.5

15% 15.0 19.0 23.0 26.9 30.8 34.7

Brent

WA

CC

Maha Energy


Peer pricing and implied pricing Smaller listed E&P companies in the Nordics are currently priced around 0.3-0.6x

NAV. The P/NAV multiples from Maha’s Nordic oil and gas peers would imply the

following implied share prices. Concerns shareholders might have for Maha vs.

peers could include geological exposure and asset diversification.

P/NAV


Implied share price using peers’ P/NAV multiple


The Tartaruga Block concession is set to expire in 2025. Assuming that the license

is not renewed, would imply the following share prices for Maha Energy. However,

our base case is based on management guiding of high probability of extending the

license.

P/NAV


Implied share price using P/NAV from peers


1.32

0.78

0.64

0.53 0.51

0.40

0.29

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

LUPE Aker BP Tethys Oil Noreco OKEA MahaEnergy

BW Energy

43.3

25.6

21.0

17.4 16.7

13.0

9.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

LUPE Aker BP Tethys Oil Noreco OKEA Currentshare price

BW Energy

SEK

1.32

0.78

0.64

0.53 0.510.44

0.29

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4


BW Energy

1.44

0.85

0.68

0.580.52

0.48

0.29

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6


BW Energy

39.3

23.2

19.1

15.8 15.213.0

8.6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

LUPE Aker BP Tethys Oil Noreco OKEA Currentshare price

BW Energy

SEK

Maha Energy


Country résumé

Brazil Oil and gas accounts for approximately 11% of Brazil’s exports. As such, the

economy is dependent on the oil price. The IMF projects GDP growth of 2.4%

throughout 2023 and 2.3% thereafter.

Exports by product, USDm

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Ministry of Development, Industry and

Foreign Trade

Real GDP growth and oil price

Source: IMF, ABG Sundal Collier

Brazil entered into a recession in 2014, leading to growing debt in a political

landscape troubled with corruption. From March 2013 to July 2015, the interest rate

was increased from 7.25% to 14.25%, which stabilised the inflation rate. Economic

growth following the recession was moderate, but is expected to increase as the

government reduces fiscal deficit.

Net debt in % of GDP


Corruption Perception Index

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Transparency International2

2 The CPI is defined as the perceived level of public sector corruption. The CPI scales from 0 (weak) to

100 (strong).

Crude oil12%

Fuel oils1%

Other products87%

1.4%

3.1%

1.1%

5.8%

3.2%4.0%

6.1%

5.1%

-0.1%

7.5%

4.0%

1.9%

3.0%

0.5%

-3.6%-3.3%

1.1%0.9%

2.0%2.4%2.4% 2.3%

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

US

D/b

bl

Real GDP growth Brent

51%

60%

54%

50%48%47%

45%

38%41%

38%34%

32%31%

33%36%

46%

52%54%

58%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

43

42

43

38

40

37

35 35

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

Maha Energy


Inflation P


Currency


IEA forecasts Brazil to be the second-largest source of non-Opec production growth

by 2024, adding around 1mb/d to world oil production3. In January, the country

produced 3.20mb/d of the total oil production of 100.51mb/d.

Approx. 90% of production is liquids

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Rystad Energy

Cumulative increase in liquids production

Source: ABG Sundal Collier, IEA

Most of the country’s resources are found in deepwater offshore fields. These are

largely dominated by Petrobras, but large oil companies are positioning for growth in

Brazil.

3 Source: IEA Oil 2019

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Mar-

00

Nov-

00

Jul-01

Mar-

02

Nov-

02

Jul-03

Mar-

04

Nov-

04

Jul-05

Mar-

06

Nov-

06

Jul-07

Mar-

08

Nov-

08

Jul-09

Mar-

10

Nov-

10

Jul-11

Mar-

12

Nov-

12

Jul-13

Mar-

14

Nov-

14

Jul-15

Mar-

16

Nov-

16

Jul-17

Mar-

18

Nov-

18

Jul-19

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Mar-

00

Nov-

00

Jul-01

Mar-

02

Nov-

02

Jul-03

Mar-

04

Nov-

04

Jul-05

Mar-

06

Nov-

06

Jul-07

Mar-

08

Nov-

08

Jul-09

Mar-

10

Nov-

10

Jul-11

Mar-

12

Nov-

12

Jul-13

Mar-

14

Nov-

14

Jul-15

Mar-

16

Nov-

16

Jul-17

Mar-

18

Nov-

18

Jul-19

US

D/B

RL

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

mboe/d

Liquids Gas

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

mb/d

OPEC Non-OPEC excl. US, Brazil US Brazil

Maha Energy


Producers by 2P reserves P

P


Awarded acreages in 2018-2019


15,086

2,645

713 666 627 477 377 251 204 167 157 135 133 91 88 57 51 21 17 160

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

mm

bbl

13,780

5,234 4,911

3,660 3,439 3,3322,748 2,538 2,517

1,909 1,694 1,672

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

sqkm

Production by field type (2019)


2,520

994

396

1190

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Offshore deepwater Other Onshore Offshore midwater Offshore shelf

mboe/d

Maha Energy


Oil market outlook

2020 – Another year with strong non-Opec production The chart below shows that we expect non-Opec production to grow by 1.7mb/d,

driven by 1) 1.1mb/d from the US (mostly shale), 2) 0.3mb/d from Europe (the

Johan Sverdrup field in Norway) and 3) Brazil (several new fields coming on

stream).

Non-Opec production should grow by as much as 6.8mb/d in 2018-2020e. The good

news is that we expect slower growth beyond 2020. Shale players have cut capex

by about 10% in 2019 and we think there is unlikely to be significant growth in 2020.

Also, growth outside of the US is likely to be limited from 2021 due to low capex

spending over the last years.

The coronavirus has had a significant effect on the oil price. Our thesis is that WTI

50/bbl is too little for the shale players to grow enough to balance the oil market,

while at WTI 60+/bbl they are likely to grow too much. With the Brent-WTI spread at

USD 5-10/bbl, we forecast a USD 65/bbl Brent oil price; however, with more clarity

on the demand implications, we see downside risk to our oil price assumption.

Non-Opec production growth likely to slow from 2021


Main assumptions (key figures highlighted in yellow)


3.2

1.91.7

0.50.7

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

201

8

201

9

202

0e

202

1e

202

2e

202

3e

y-o

-y g

row

th (

mill. b

/d)

Non-OPEC production growth+ 6.8 in 2018-2020e

Slower growth from 2021

3.2

1.91.7

0.50.7

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

201

8

201

9

202

0e

202

1e

202

2e

202

3e

y-o

-y g

row

th (

mill. b

/d)

Non-OPEC production growth+ 6.8 in 2018-2020e

Slower growth from 2021

Key assumptions 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e

Future price (Brent, USD) 62 59

Factset (Brent, USD) 64 66

ABGSC (Brent, USD) 53 44 54 71 64 62 65

Q1 55 34 54 67 63 58 65

Q2 62 46 50 75 69 60 65

Q3 51 46 52 75 62 65 65

Q4 44 49 62 68 63 65 65

Other key assumptions:

WTI (USD) 49 43 51 60 57 57 60

Brent-WTI spread 4.0 0.2 3.3 10.6 7.3 5.0 5.0

Offshore E&P spending growth -20% -25% -12% 0% 3% 5% 7%

NOK/USD 8.06 8.40 8.27 8.13 8.80 9.00 9.00

We expect slower non-Opec production growth from 2021

Maha Energy


A closer look at consensus for 2020e It is difficult to obtain consensus estimates for supply and demand forecasts in the

oil market, so we track the monthly IEA forecasts (OECD’s Energy agency), Opec

(the oil organisation publishes forecasts in its monthly report), EIA (the US Energy

Information Administration) and FGE (Facts Global Energy – an independent

consulting firm). The table below shows these agencies’ current estimates; we call

the average of these agencies’ “estimates consensus”.

Oil market estimates


Oil market forecasts 2020ey-o-y change in demand (mb/d), 2020e

Average/IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSC

Demand:North America 0.12 0.18 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.01Western Europe 0.07 -0.05 -0.06 0.02 -0.01 -0.09OECD Pacific 0.01 -0.13 -0.06 -0.18 -0.09 -0.02Total OECD 0.20 0.00 -0.03 -0.05 0.03 -0.10

China 0.15 0.23 0.38 0.25 0.25 -0.02FSU 0.09 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.02Middle East -0.02 0.10 0.09 0.13 0.08 -0.12India 0.13 0.14 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.09"Other non-OECD" 0.27 0.41 0.31 0.08 0.27 0.12Total non-OECD 0.62 0.99 1.05 0.69 0.84 0.09

Global demand 0.82 0.99 1.03 0.64 0.87 -0.01

y-o-y change in production (mb/d), 2020eAverage/

IEA OPEC EIA FGE consensus ABGSCSupply:US 1.06 1.26 1.60 1.39 1.33 1.09Canada&Mexico 0.17 0.06 0.12 0.09 0.11 0.08Western Europe 0.39 0.31 0.36 0.33 0.35 0.26OECD Pacific 0.07 0.07 -0.04 n.m. 0.03 0.08China -0.01 0.02 0.07 0.08 0.04 0.00FSU 0.03 0.06 -0.01 -0.07 0.00 -0.04Other non-OPEC 0.34 0.47 0.43 0.61 0.46 0.31Total non-OPEC 2.05 2.25 2.53 2.43 2.32 1.78

Call on OPEC -1.23 -1.26 -1.50 -1.79 -1.45 -1.79

Maha Energy


Key oil market estimates

Oil market estimates – annual figures (million barrels/day)


Oil demand (mb/d) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

OECD

US 21.0 19.8 19.1 19.5 19.3 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.5 20.5 20.5

Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile) 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.1

Europe 15.6 15.5 14.8 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1

Asia Oceania 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.9 8.1 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.9

Total OECD 50.1 48.3 46.3 46.9 46.5 46.0 46.1 45.8 46.5 47.0 47.3 47.8 47.8 47.7

y-o-y (%) -0.2 % -3.6 % -4.1 % 1.3 % -1.0 % -1.1 % 0.2 % -0.6 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 1.1 % -0.1 % -0.2 %

Non-OECD

FSU 4.1 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.9

Europe 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

China 7.6 7.7 8.0 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.4 10.8 11.6 12.0 12.6 13.0 13.6 13.5

India 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.1

Other Asia 6.7 6.6 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.1 8.1 7.5 8.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.3

Latin-America 5.4 5.7 5.7 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4

Middle East 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.8 8.1 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2

Africa 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4

Total Non-OECD 37.0 38.1 39.1 41.5 42.9 44.6 46.3 47.9 48.5 49.2 50.8 51.5 52.5 52.6

y-o-y (%) 4.1 % 3.0 % 2.6 % 6.1 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.4 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 0.2 %

TOTAL DEMAND 87.1 86.5 85.5 88.4 89.3 90.5 92.3 93.7 95.0 96.2 98.1 99.3 100.3 100.3

y-o-y (%) 1.5 % -0.8 % -1.1 % 3.5 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.0 %

Oil supply (mb/d) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

NON-OPEC

US 7.0 6.9 7.4 7.8 8.1 9.1 10.3 12.0 13.0 12.5 13.2 15.5 17.2 18.3

Mexico 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.9

Canada 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.4 5.5 5.6

North America 13.8 13.3 13.6 14.0 14.6 15.8 17.2 19.1 20.0 19.5 20.3 23.0 24.6 25.8

Europe 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.6

Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6

Total OECD 19.4 18.7 18.8 18.8 18.9 19.8 21.0 22.9 23.9 23.4 24.2 26.9 28.5 30.0

FSU 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.5

China 3.7 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Brazil 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.1

Other non-OECD 11.3 11.8 12.0 12.7 12.8 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.6 12.4 12.7 12.7 12.7

Processing Gains 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4

Total Non-OPEC 51.0 51.1 51.8 53.3 53.5 54.3 56.0 58.3 59.8 59.1 59.8 63.0 64.9 66.6

y-o-y (%) 0.8 % 0.1 % 1.5 % 2.8 % 0.5 % 1.4 % 3.1 % 4.2 % 2.4 % -1.1 % 1.2 % 5.3 % 3.0 % 2.7 %

OPEC

Saudi Arabia 8.5 8.9 7.9 7.9 9.1 9.5 9.4 9.5 10.1 10.4 10.0 10.3 9.9 9.7

UAE 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0

Venezuela 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.4 0.8 0.7

Kuwait 2.2 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.7

Angola 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4

Nigeria 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8

Libya 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.6

Algeria 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

Ecuador 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

OPEC 9 23.2 23.9 21.7 21.8 22.1 24.0 23.3 23.0 23.9 23.8 23.2 23.1 22.2 21.4

Iraq 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.5

Iran 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.6 3.8 3.6 2.4 1.9

OPEC 11 29.3 30.2 27.9 27.9 28.4 29.9 29.1 29.2 30.7 31.8 31.4 31.3 29.3 27.8

Gabon 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Other OPEC 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total OPEC crude 30.6 31.5 29.1 29.2 29.8 31.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 28.4

NGLs 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6

Total OPEC 34.6 35.5 33.6 33.8 34.6 36.3 35.3 35.3 36.7 37.9 37.6 37.4 35.5 34.0

TOTAL SUPPLY 85.6 86.6 85.4 87.1 88.1 90.6 91.3 93.7 96.5 96.9 97.4 100.4 100.4 100.6

Key figures 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Call on OPEC crude 32.2 31.4 29.2 30.5 31.0 31.2 31.4 30.2 30.0 31.6 32.7 30.8 29.9 28.1

OPEC crude production 30.6 31.5 29.1 29.2 29.8 31.3 30.3 30.2 31.4 32.4 32.0 31.9 30.0 28.4

= Implied stock change -1.6 0.1 -0.1 -1.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.0 1.5 0.7 -0.7 1.1 0.1 0.3

Change in OECD Industry Stocks (mb/d) -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2

Implicit change in other stocks (mb/d) -1.3 -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -1.0 -0.1 -1.0 -0.3 0.7 0.7 -0.2 1.1 -0.1 0.2

OECD Industry Stocks (mill. barrels) 2,566 2,679 2,662 2,677 2,608 2,664 2,589 2,706 2,989 3,007 2,860 2,870 2,940 2,999

OECD Inventory Days (industry) 53.1 57.8 56.7 57.6 56.7 57.9 56.5 58.2 63.6 63.5 59.8 60.0 61.6 62.6

Maha Energy


Oil market estimates – annual figures (y-o-y growth, million barrels/d)


y-o-y growth

Growth y-o-y (mb/d) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

OECD

US 21.0 -1.2 -0.7 0.4 -0.2 -0.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0

Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile) 4.9 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0

Europe -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Asia Oceania -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Total OECD -0.1 -1.8 -2.0 0.6 -0.5 -0.5 0.1 -0.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.1

y-o-y (%) -0.2 % -3.6 % -4.1 % 1.3 % -1.0 % -1.1 % 0.2 % -0.6 % 1.6 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 1.1 % -0.1 % -0.2 %

Non-OECD

FSU 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0

Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

China 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0

India 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1

Other Asia 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.6 0.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

Latin America 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Middle East 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1

Africa 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1

Total Non-OECD 1.5 1.1 1.0 2.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 0.6 0.7 1.6 0.7 1.0 0.1

y-o-y (%) 4.1 % 3.0 % 2.6 % 6.1 % 3.3 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.4 % 1.3 % 1.5 % 3.2 % 1.4 % 2.0 % 0.2 %

TOTAL DEMAND 1.3 -0.7 -1.0 3.0 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.0 0.0

y-o-y (%) 1.5 % -0.8 % -1.1 % 3.5 % 1.0 % 1.3 % 2.0 % 1.4 % 1.5 % 1.2 % 2.0 % 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.0 %

y-o-y growth

Oil supply (mb/d) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

NON-OPEC

US 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 -0.5 0.7 2.3 1.6 1.1

Mexico -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

Canada 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.1

North America -0.1 -0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.9 0.9 -0.5 0.8 2.7 1.6 1.2

Europe -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.3

Pacific 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Total OECD -0.3 -0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.0 -0.5 0.8 2.7 1.6 1.5

FSU 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1

China 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0

Brazil 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3

Other non-OECD 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0

Processing Gains 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Non-OPEC 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.4 -0.7 0.7 3.2 1.9 1.7

y-o-y (%) 0.8 % 0.1 % 1.5 % 2.8 % 0.5 % 1.4 % 3.1 % 4.2 % 2.4 % -1.1 % 1.2 % 5.3 % 3.0 % 2.7 %

OPEC

Saudi Arabia -0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.0 1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.5 0.4 -0.5 -0.1

UAE -0.1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1

Venezuela 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2

Kuwait 0.0 0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Angola 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

Nigeria -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0

Libya 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -1.1 0.9 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.5

Algeria 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OPEC 9 -0.4 0.7 -2.2 0.1 0.3 1.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.0 -0.7 -0.1 -0.9 -0.8

Iraq 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.3

Iran 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.4

OPEC 11 -0.2 0.9 -2.3 0.0 0.5 1.5 -0.8 0.0 1.6 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.9 -1.5

Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other OPEC -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0

Total OPEC crude 0.0 1.1 -2.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 -1.1 0.3 1.9 2.1 0.0 -0.2 -3.0 -2.3

NGLs 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0

Total OPEC -0.2 0.9 -1.9 0.3 0.7 1.7 -1.0 0.1 1.4 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 -1.9 -1.5

TOTAL SUPPLY 0.2 1.0 -1.2 1.7 1.0 2.5 0.7 2.4 2.8 0.5 0.5 3.0 0.0 0.2

Key figures 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Call on OPEC crude 0.9 -0.7 -2.2 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 -1.2 -0.2 1.6 1.1 -1.9 -1.0 -1.8

OPEC crude production -0.3 0.9 -2.4 0.1 0.6 1.5 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 0.9 -0.4 -0.1 -1.9 -1.6

Maha Energy


Oil market estimates – quarterly figures (million barrels/day)

al


Oil demand (mill. b/d) Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

OECD

US 19.5 20.1 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.7 20.6 20.3 20.4 20.7 20.8 20.2 20.1 20.9 21.0

Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile)5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2

Europe 13.8 14.3 14.7 14.4 14.1 14.2 14.7 14.1 13.9 14.0 14.7 14.3 13.8 13.6 14.7 14.4

Pacific 8.5 7.7 7.8 8.3 8.7 7.7 7.8 8.1 8.3 7.5 7.6 8.2 8.3 7.3 7.7 8.3

Total OECD 46.9 47.0 47.7 48.1 48.0 47.3 48.3 47.8 47.6 46.9 48.2 48.5 47.4 46.0 48.5 48.9

y-o-y (%) 0.3 % 2.0 % 0.7 % 1.4 % 2.4 % 0.5 % 1.3 % -0.6 % -0.8 % -0.8 % -0.1 % 1.4 % -0.5 % -1.8 % 0.6 % 0.8 %

Non-OECD

FSU 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.8 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.8 5.1 4.9

Europe 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

China 12.4 12.9 12.3 12.7 12.7 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.7 13.8 13.7 12.6 13.3 14.2 14.1

India 4.5 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.1 4.9 5.2

Other Asia 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.5 9.2 9.1 9.3 9.7

Latin America 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.4

Middle East 8.2 8.7 8.9 8.2 8.1 8.4 8.7 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.7 8.2 7.9 8.0 8.7 8.2

Africa 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4

Total Non-OECD 49.7 51.1 50.8 50.6 50.7 51.6 51.8 51.7 51.6 52.5 52.9 52.9 51.0 51.7 53.7 53.8

y-o-y (%) 2.1 % 3.0 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 2.1 % 1.1 % 1.9 % 2.2 % 1.8 % 1.6 % 2.2 % 2.3 % -1.2 % -1.4 % 1.5 % 1.7 %

TOTAL DEMAND 96.6 98.1 98.4 98.7 98.8 98.9 100.0 99.5 99.3 99.3 101.1 101.4 98.4 97.8 102.2 102.7

y-o-y (%) 1.2 % 2.5 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 2.3 % 0.8 % 1.6 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 1.1 % 1.9 % -0.9 % -1.6 % 1.1 % 1.3 %

Oil supply (mill. b/d) Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

NON-OPEC

US 12.7 13.0 13.2 14.0 14.4 15.1 16.0 16.5 16.6 17.1 17.2 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.1 18.6

Mexico 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

Canada 4.9 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6

North America 20.0 19.8 20.2 21.1 21.7 22.2 23.3 23.9 24.0 24.5 24.7 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.6 26.2

Europe 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.8

Pacific 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6

Total OECD 24.0 23.6 24.0 24.9 25.7 25.9 27.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.5 30.6

FSU 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.8 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5

China 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Brazil 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2

Other 12.0 12.4 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.8 13.0 12.5 12.2 12.9 13.0 12.5 12.3 12.9 13.1 12.5

Processing Gains 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4

Total Non-OPEC 59.4 59.3 59.9 60.5 61.1 62.0 63.4 64.2 63.9 64.5 65.2 66.0 66.1 66.8 66.5 67.1

y-o-y (%) -0.4 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 2.7 % 4.5 % 5.9 % 6.1 % 4.6 % 4.0 % 2.9 % 2.7 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 2.0 % 1.7 %

OPEC

Saudi Arabia 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.1 9.8 9.5 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7

UAE 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0

Venezuela 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Kuwait 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7

Angola 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

Nigeria 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

Libya 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8

Algeria 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Ecuador 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

OPEC 9 22.9 23.1 23.4 23.1 22.2 22.6 23.3 23.9 22.6 22.2 21.8 22.3 21.4 21.2 21.4 21.6

Iraq 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

Iran 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9

OPEC 11 31.1 31.4 31.8 31.3 30.5 30.9 31.6 31.6 30.0 29.4 28.8 29.1 27.8 27.6 27.8 28.0

Gabon 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Other OPEC 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Total OPEC crude 31.7 32.0 32.3 32.0 31.7 31.5 32.0 32.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 29.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.6

NGLs 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6

Total OPEC 37.3 37.6 38.0 37.5 37.3 37.0 37.6 37.8 36.2 35.6 34.9 35.4 34.0 33.8 34.0 34.2

TOTAL SUPPLY 96.7 96.9 97.8 98.1 98.3 99.1 101.0 102.0 100.1 100.1 100.1 101.3 100.1 100.5 100.5 101.3

Key figures Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

Call on OPEC crude 31.5 33.1 32.9 32.6 32.2 31.3 31.1 29.7 29.8 29.3 30.5 29.9 26.8 25.4 30.1 30.1

OPEC crude production 31.7 32.0 32.3 32.0 31.7 31.5 32.0 32.2 30.7 30.1 29.4 29.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.6

= Implied stock change 0.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 0.2 1.0 2.5 0.8 0.7 -1.0 -0.1 1.7 2.8 -1.7 -1.5

Change in OECD Industry Stocks (mb/d)0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -1.2 -0.5 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.8 1.4 -0.9 -0.7

Implicit change in other stocks (mb/d)-0.1 -0.9 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 2.6 0.7 0.2 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 1.4 -0.9 -0.7

OECD Industry Stocks (mill. barrels)3,035 3,024 2,974 2,860 2,814 2,810 2,863 2,870 2,877 2,935 2,944 2,940 3,016 3,143 3,064 2,997

OECD Inventory Days (industry) 63.6 63.3 62.1 59.8 58.9 59.0 60.1 60.0 60.3 61.8 61.8 61.5 63.1 65.7 64.1 62.7

Maha Energy


Oil market estimates – quarterly figures (y-o-y growth, million barrels/d)


Growth y-o-y (mill. barrels/day) Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

OECD

US 0.0 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.2

Other America (Canada, Mexico, Chile)0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Europe 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.1

Pacific -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.1

Total OECD 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.7 -0.3 -0.8 0.3 0.4

y-o-y (%) 0.3 % 2.0 % 0.7 % 1.4 % 2.4 % 0.5 % 1.3 % -0.6 % -0.8 % -0.8 % -0.1 % 1.4 % -0.5 % -1.8 % 0.6 % 0.8 %

Non-OECD

FSU -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Europe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

China 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 0.4

India -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1

Other Asia 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.3

Latin America -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Middle East 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0

Africa 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Total Non-OECD 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.8 0.9

y-o-y (%) 2.1 % 3.0 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 2.1 % 1.1 % 1.9 % 2.2 % 1.8 % 1.6 % 2.2 % 2.3 % -1.2 % -1.4 % 1.5 % 1.7 %

TOTAL DEMAND 1.2 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 1.1 1.9 -0.9 -1.6 1.1 1.3

y-o-y (%) 1.2 % 2.5 % 1.7 % 1.9 % 2.3 % 0.8 % 1.6 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.4 % 1.1 % 1.9 % -0.9 % -1.6 % 1.1 % 1.3 %

Oil supply (mill. b/d) Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

NON-OPEC

US 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.8 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8

Mexico -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1

Canada 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1

North America 0.1 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.8 2.4 3.1 2.8 2.3 2.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.8

Europe 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2

Pacific 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1

Total OECD 0.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.1 3.0 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.1

FSU 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1

China -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Brazil 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1

Other -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Processing Gains 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Non-OPEC -0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.7 2.8 2.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.3 1.1

y-o-y (%) -0.4 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 2.7 % 4.5 % 5.9 % 6.1 % 4.6 % 4.0 % 2.9 % 2.7 % 3.4 % 3.5 % 2.0 % 1.7 %

OPEC

Saudi Arabia -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -0.5

UAE 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1

Venezuela -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0

Kuwait -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

Angola -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Nigeria -0.4 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0

Libya 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3

Algeria -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Ecuador 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OPEC 9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.4 -0.7

Iraq 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2

Iran 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3

OPEC 11 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -1.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.5 -1.5 -2.8 -2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.0 -1.2

Gabon 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other OPEC 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.6 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total OPEC crude 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -1.1 -1.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.0 -1.2

NGLs 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0

Total OPEC 1.1 1.1 0.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 0.2 -1.0 -1.5 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -0.9 -1.2

TOTAL SUPPLY 0.9 1.7 0.8 -0.2 1.6 2.1 3.2 3.9 1.8 1.0 -0.9 -0.7 0.0 0.5 0.4 -0.1

Key figures Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19e Q4'19e Q1'20e Q2'20e Q3'20e Q4'20e

Call on OPEC crude 1.3 1.7 1.0 1.5 0.6 -1.8 -1.9 -2.9 -2.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.1 -3.1 -3.9 -0.3 0.2

OPEC crude production 1.0 1.0 0.2 -0.6 0.0 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -1.1 -1.5 -2.6 -2.4 -2.2 -1.8 -1.0 -1.2

Maha Energy


Fiscal terms

For all practical purposes, Maha Energy is under the fiscal regimes of Brazil (the Tie

and Tartaruga fields) and the US (LAK Ranch). In both countries, the fiscal regimes

include royalties, ad valorem/sales taxation and regular corporate tax. The royalty is

paid to the landowner/government, while the ad valorem/sales tax is a top-line tax to

the state.

Fiscal regime for the Tie Field

Royalty:

The Tie field is subject to an 11.1% royalty.

Corporate tax:

The statutory tax rate in Brazil is 34%, but due to a tax rate incentive of 18.75%, the

effective tax rate is 15.25%. The tax rate incentive is scheduled until 2024, but the

company expects that the period will be extended. Following the acquisition of the

field, Maha Energy assumed tax loss carry forwards of which USD 50m remained at

year-end 2018. Tax losses that are carried forward may be used to offset up to 30%

of the taxable income in the tax period.

Fiscal regime for the Tartaruga Block

Royalty:

The Tartaruga Block is subject to a 10.7% royalty.

Overriding royalty:

An overriding royalty of 10% is also payable to Petrobras.

Corporate tax:

The statutory tax rate in Brazil is 34%, but due to a tax rate incentive of 18.75%, the

effective tax rate is 15.25%. The duration of the tax rate incentive is until year-end

2029. The tax loss carried forward balance in Brazil may be used to offset up to

30% of the taxable income in the tax period.

Fiscal regime for the Lak Ranch Royalty:

Production from the LAK Ranch was subject to 14.06% royalties until 2019, and

17.4% thereafter. In addition, the 1% partner in LAK is carried for its costs, and as

such, it can be viewed as a royalty.

Ad Valorem tax:

Production from the LAK Ranch is subject to 12.97% sales tax.

Corporate tax:

The corporate tax in the US is 21%.

Maha Energy


Management

Jonas Lindvall

CEO since 2016

Mr. Lindvall holds a B.Sc. in Petroleum Engineering and a Masters Degree in

Energy Business from the University of Tulsa, USA. He is a seasoned senior

executive with 28 years of international experience in the upstream oil and gas

industry across Europe, North America, Africa and Asia. Mr. Lindvall started his

career working in Lundin Oil for 8 years, during the early days of E&P growth. After

6 years in Shell and Talisman Energy, he joined, and helped secured the success,

of Tethys Oil. Mr. Lindvall holds a total of 4,931,147 shares in Maha Energy.

Alan Johnson

Vice President Operations since 2019

Mr. Johnson graduated with a 1st Class B. Eng (Hons) from Heriot Watt University,

Scotland. He is a senior oil and gas executive with over 25 years of experience

working internationally in Europe, Africa, North and South America and Australasia.

Mr. Johnsons experience includes varied technical, managerial and executive roles

in drilling, production, reservoir, reserves, corporate planning and asset

management. He started his career in E&P with Shell International in the Dutch

North Sea, and has since then held positions with increasing responsibility with

Shell Canada, APF Energy, Rockyview Energy, Delphi Energy, BG Australia and

Caracal Energy. Mr. Johnson’s latest role was Vice President, Asset Management

at Gran Tierra Energy managing its portfolio of assets in Colombia, Brazil and Peru.

Mr. Johnson is a Chartered Engineer in the UK and a Professional Engineer in

Alberta, Canada.

Andres Modarelli

CFO since 2017

Mr. Modarelli holds a Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Business

Administration degrees from the Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina, and

Chartered Professional Accountant designations (CPA) in Canada and Argentina. In

total, Mr. Modarelli has over 17 years of experience in finance and accounting,

including international oil and gas experience in South America.

Jamie McKeown,

VP Exploration and Production since 2016

Mr. McKeown holds a B.Sc. in Geology from the Victoria University of Wellington,

New Zealand. He has over 30 years of experience with IPC (Lundin) Oil, Apache

Energy and Maha Energy. Mr. McKeown has worked extensively throughout North

and East Africa, the Middle East and the US.

Victoria Berg

Manager Investor Relations and (interim) Deputy Managing Director since 2019

Ms. Berg holds a Project Management Diploma from the Frans Schartau Business

Institute in Stockholm and studied Communications at Stockholm University. Over

the past ten years she has had various roles coordinating and managing events and

public/investor relations.

Maha Energy


Board of Directors

Anders Ehrenblad,

Member of the Board of Directors since 2013 and Chairman since 2019

Mr. Ehrenblad holds a M.Sc. in Business Administration from University of Uppsala,

Sweden. Mr. Ehrenblad works in investment, financial and management consulting

and has broad experience from private companies such as Investment Manager

and partner of Graviton AB, Board Member of RF Coverage AB, AB PiaCare and

Maven Wireless AB. Mr. Ehrenblad holds 779,607 shares in Maha Energy.

Jonas Lindvall

Member of the Board of Directors since 2013 and Managing Director since 2016

See information in the Management section.

Nicholas Walker

Member of the Board of Directors since May 2019

Mr. Walker is the COO of Lundin Petroleum AB. He holds a B.Sc. in Mining

Engineering from the Imperial College London, a M.Sc. in Computer Science from

the University College London as well as an MBA from the City University Business

School in London. He has over 30 years of international experience in the upstream

oil and gas industry in senior executive/management positions across Europe,

Africa, Asia and the Americas including Bow Valley Energy Inc., Talisman Energy

Inc., Africa Oil Corp. and Lundin Petroleum AB. Mr. Walker holds a total of 464,211

shares in Maha Energy.

Harald Pousette

Member of the Board of Directors since June 2017

Mr. Pousette holds a Bachelor of Arts (Economics) from the University of Uppsala,

Sweden. Mr. Pousette is the Chief Executive Officer of Kvalitena Industrier AB. He

previously worked in the finance and real estate industries, including recently as

Chief Financial Officer of Kvalitena AB. Mr. Pousette is the Chairman of Norrfordon

Holding AB, Bil Dahl AB, Bil- och Tratorservice i Stigtomta AB, Jitech AB, and Board

Member of Stig Svenssons Motorverkstad AB and companies in the Kvalitena

Group. Mr. Pousette holds a total of 874,142 shares in Maha Energy. Kvalitena AB

is the main shareholder of Maha Energy, controlling 21.6% of the company shares.

Maha Energy


Shareholder structure

Shareholder structure as of December 31, 2019

Shareholder Outstanding shares Ownership share

Kvalitena AB 21,421,660 21.3%

Forsakringsaktiebolaget, Avanza Pension 6,154,871 6.1%

Jonas Lindvall (Maha CEO and Managing Director) 4,761,147 4.7%

Ron Panchuk (Former Maha Vice President and CCO) 2,934,016 2.9%

UBS Switzerland AG W8IMY 2,929,224 2.9%

Alandsbanken in place of Owners 2,034,353 2.0%

SIX SIS AG 1,586,189 1.6%

Al Subhi, Talal Saif 1,360,000 1.4%

BNY Mellom NA (Former Mellon), W9 1,264,753 1.3%

Nordnet 1,197,110 1.2%

Total ten largest shareholders 45,643,323 45.5%

Remaining shareholders 54,773,545 54.5%

Total A and B shares outstanding 100,416,868 100%


Maha Energy


Main risks

We view the main risks to the company as: Oil and gas prices Maha Energy is exposed to adverse shifts in oil and gas prices. Currency risk The functional currencies are USD, SEK and BRL, while the trading currency is SEK, i.e. Maha Energy is exposed to adverse currency fluctuations. Project execution Maha Energy and its contractors’ ability to execute projects according to the schedule and on budget, including infrastructure in place and offtake capacity. Political/regulatory risk Operating in several countries, with various political and regulatory regimes, Maha Energy is exposed to adverse changes in regulatory and political regimes.

Maha Energy



Income Statement (USDm) Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019

Sales 7 7 8 11 10 12 14 12

COGS -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -3 -4

Gross profit 5 4 5 8 8 9 11 8

Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITDA 5 4 5 8 8 9 11 8

Depreciation and amortisation -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -1

EBITA 4 3 5 7 6 8 9 6

EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 4 3 5 7 6 8 9 6

Net financial items -1 -1 -1 -0 -1 -1 -1 -1

Pretax profit 2 2 3 7 5 7 8 5

Tax -0 -0 -0 11 -1 -1 -1 -2

Net profit 2 2 3 18 4 6 7 3

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders 2 2 3 18 4 6 7 3

EPS 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.02

EPS Adj 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.17 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.02

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) 7.7 10.6 8.0 160.0 16.0 9.8 15.3 47.1

Gross margin (%) 61.4 57.2 67.4 77.3 74.8 75.1 76.5 64.4

EBITDA margin (%) 61.4 57.2 67.4 77.3 74.8 75.1 76.5 64.4

EBITA margin (%) 49.8 46.8 58.1 64.3 60.8 64.4 65.5 52.6

EBIT margin (%) 49.8 46.8 58.1 64.3 60.8 64.4 65.5 52.6

Pretax margin (%) 33.6 30.0 43.7 64.1 49.4 55.8 55.6 43.2

Net margin (%) 31.0 26.9 40.2 166.5 41.5 50.3 47.1 22.8

Growth rates Y/Y Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019

Sales growth (%) +chg 821.4 49.7 84.0 37.7 76.7 74.3 6.9

EBITDA growth (%) +chg +chg 138.7 172.0 67.8 132.0 97.8 -11.0

EBIT growth (%) +chg +chg 448.2 122.7 68.2 143.2 96.4 -12.5

Net profit growth (%) +chg +chg +chg 636.0 84.2 231.2 104.5 -85.3

EPS growth (%) +chg +chg +chg 636.0 84.2 231.2 104.5 -85.3

Adj earnings numbers Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019

EBITDA Adj 5 4 5 8 8 9 11 8

EBITDA Adj margin (%) 61.4 57.2 67.4 77.3 74.8 75.1 76.5 64.4

EBITA Adj 4 3 5 7 6 8 9 6

EBITA Adj margin (%) 49.8 46.8 58.1 64.3 60.8 64.4 65.5 52.6

EBIT Adj 4 3 5 7 6 8 9 6

EBIT Adj margin (%) 49.8 46.8 58.1 64.3 60.8 64.4 65.5 52.6

Pretax profit Adj 2 2 3 7 5 7 8 5

Net profit Adj 2 2 3 18 4 6 7 3

Net profit to shareholders Adj 2 2 3 18 4 6 7 3

Net Adj margin (%) 31.0 26.9 40.2 166.5 41.5 50.3 47.1 22.8

Maha Energy



Income Statement (USDm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 33 48 67

COGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 -9 -11 -13 -15

Gross profit 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 35 52

Other operating items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 35 52

Depreciation and amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -9

Of which leasing depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBITA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 29 44

EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Impairment and PPA amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EBIT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 29 44

Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -5 -4

Pretax profit 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 15 25 39

Tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 11 -5 -6

Net profit 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 26 20 33

Minority interest 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit discontinued 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net profit to shareholders 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 26 20 33

EPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

EPS Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

Total extraordinary items after tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Leasing payments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tax rate (%) ns ns ns ns ns ns 10.2 69.9 20.5 15.3

Gross margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 27.4 67.2 72.8 77.5

EBITDA margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 27.4 67.2 72.8 77.5

EBITA margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 10.6 55.9 61.1 64.8

EBIT margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 10.6 55.9 61.1 64.8

Pretax margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -20.1 45.3 51.3 58.5

Net margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -22.2 76.9 40.8 49.6

Growth rates Y/Y 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Sales growth (%) na na na na na na na 168.1 44.4 39.5

EBITDA growth (%) na na na na na na high 558.4 56.5 48.3

EBIT growth (%) na na na na na na high 1,320.9 57.7 48.0

Net profit growth (%) na na na na na na high 1,029.5 -23.4 69.5

EPS growth (%) na na na na na na high 895.1 -28.3 69.0

Profitability 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

ROE (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -11.6 43.9 25.0 31.9

ROE Adj (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -11.6 43.9 25.0 31.9

ROCE (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 1.7 21.9 26.7 32.2

ROCE Adj(%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 1.7 21.9 26.7 32.2

ROIC (%) na na na na na na 4.8 45.6 26.4 35.5

ROIC Adj (%) na na na na na na 4.8 45.6 26.4 35.5

Adj earnings numbers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

EBITDA Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 35 52

EBITDA Adj margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 27.4 67.2 72.8 77.5

EBITDA lease Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 35 52

EBITDA lease Adj margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 27.4 67.2 72.8 77.5

EBITA Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 29 44

EBITA Adj margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 10.6 55.9 61.1 64.8

EBIT Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 19 29 44

EBIT Adj margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 10.6 55.9 61.1 64.8

Pretax profit Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 15 25 39

Net profit Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 26 20 33

Net profit to shareholders Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 26 20 33

Net Adj margin (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -22.2 76.9 40.8 49.6

Maha Energy



Cash Flow Statement (USDm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

EBITDA 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 22 35 52

Net financial items 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -5 -4

Paid tax 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -0 -2 -0

Non-cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 4 0

Cash flow before change in WC 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 32 48

Change in WC 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 -3 -2 0

Operating cash flow 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 20 30 48

CAPEX tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -16 -28 -19

CAPEX intangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Acquisitions and disposals 0 0 0 0 0 0 -33 0 0 0

Free cash flow 0 0 0 0 0 0 -31 5 2 28

Dividend paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Share issues and buybacks 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 2 1 0

Lease liability amortisation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other non cash items 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0 -14 -1 0

Decrease in net IB debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 -11 -0 3 28

Balance Sheet (USDm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Goodwill 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other intangible assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tangible fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 80 97 108

Right-of-use asset 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total other fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Fixed assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 64 80 97 108

Inventories 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Receivables 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 8 8

Other current assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Cash and liquid assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 20 22 51

Total assets 0 0 0 0 0 0 89 108 128 167

Shareholders equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 69 88 121

Minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 48 69 88 121

Long-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 33 31 31 31

Pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Convertible debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Leasing liability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total other long-term liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 10 16

Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Accounts payable 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 9 7 7

Other current l iabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total liabilities and equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 90 119 136 175

Net IB debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 8 -20

Net IB debt excl. pension debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 8 -20

Net IB debt excl. leasing 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 8 -20

Capital invested 0 0 0 0 0 0 60 79 98 109

Working capital 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -1 1 1

EV breakdown 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Market cap. diluted (m) na na na na na 8 63 141 264 139

Net IB debt Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 11 8 -20

Market value of minority 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of shares and participations 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Reversal of conv. debt assumed equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EV na na na na na 8 74 152 272 119

Capital efficiency 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Total assets turnover (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 27.8 33.8 40.9 45.5

Working capital/sales (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm -15.2 -7.1 -0.1 1.2

Financial risk and debt serv ice 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Net debt/equity nm nm nm nm nm nm 0.23 0.16 0.09 -0.17

Net debt/market cap na na na na na 0 0.16 0.09 0.03 -0.15

Equity ratio (%) nm nm nm nm nm nm 53.2 64.3 68.7 72.5

Net IB debt adj./equity nm nm nm nm nm nm 0.23 0.16 0.09 -0.17

Current ratio nm nm nm nm nm nm 3.41 3.18 4.24 8.21

EBITDA/net interest na na na na na na 1.07 4.75 7.83 12.43

Net IB debt/EBITDA nm nm nm nm nm nm 3.21 0.49 0.23 -0.39

Net IB debt/EBITDA lease Adj nm nm nm nm nm nm 3.21 0.49 0.23 -0.39

Interest cover nm nm nm nm nm nm 0.41 3.95 6.57 10.39

Maha Energy



Valuation and Ratios (USDm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Shares outstanding adj. 0 0 0 0 0 7 87 98 99 100

Fully diluted shares Adj 0 0 0 0 0 7 87 98 99 100

EPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

Dividend per share Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

EPS Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.03 0.25 0.18 0.31

BVPS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.55 0.71 0.88 1.21

BVPS Adj 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.55 0.71 0.88 1.21

Net IB debt / share na na na na na 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2

Share price na na na na na 1.13 0.73 1.45 2.66 1.39

Market cap. (m) na na na na na 8 63 141 264 139

Valuation 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

P/E na na na na na nm -23.0 5.7 14.7 4.5

EV/sales na na na na na nm 5.98 4.57 5.66 1.77

EV/EBITDA na na na na na nm 21.8 6.8 7.8 2.3

EV/EBITA na na na na na nm 56.7 8.2 9.3 2.7

EV/EBIT na na na na na nm 56.7 8.2 9.3 2.7

Dividend yield (%) na na na na na 0 0 0 0 0

FCF yield (%) na na na na na 0 -48.3 3.1 0.6 18.8

Lease adj. FCF yield (%) na na na na na 0 -48.3 3.1 0.6 18.8

P/BVPS na na na na na nm 1.33 2.04 3.01 1.15

P/BVPS Adj na na na na na nm 1.33 2.04 3.01 1.15

P/E Adj na na na na na nm -23.0 5.7 14.7 4.5

EV/EBITDA Adj na na na na na nm 21.8 6.8 7.8 2.3

EV/EBITA Adj na na na na na nm 56.7 8.2 9.3 2.7

EV/EBIT Adj na na na na na nm 56.7 8.2 9.3 2.7

EV/cap. employed na na na na na nm 0.9 1.5 2.3 0.8

Inv estment ratios 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e

Capex/sales nm nm nm nm nm nm 21.9 46.6 58.9 28.8

Capex/depreciation nm nm nm nm nm nm 130.5 413.1 499.6 227.6

Capex tangibles/tangible fixed assets nm nm nm nm nm nm 4.3 19.5 29.1 17.9

Capex intangibles/definite intangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on intangibles/definite intangiblesnm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm nm

Depreciation on tangibles/tangibles nm nm nm nm nm nm 3.3 4.7 5.8 7.9

Maha Energy


Analyst certification I/We, Eirik Thune Øritsland, Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen, the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies

and securities covered in this report.

Analyst valuation methods ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's

discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered.

Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.

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only. Any changes made have been based on factual input received.

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Production of report: 09/03/2020 06:47 CET.

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