Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514

Y O U R L O G O

Citizens for a Strong New HampshireConducted September 10th-11th, 2014

2,214 Likely Voter Interviews

MOE +/-2.0%

Statewide Public Opinion Survey

[email protected]

Ossipee

Lancaster

Woodsville

Keene

Nashua

Exeter

Laconia

Newport

Concord

3. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

Statewide

Region

35%

65%

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG TRACK

37%29%

41%37%

31%39%

63%71%

59%63%

69%61%

Age

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

35% 33% 32%

39% 37%

65% 67% 68%

61% 63%

Right Direction Wrong Track

3. Would you say things in country are going in the right direction or have they gotten off on the wrong track?

Party Gender Terrorist/Boarder

Party by Gender Generic Ballot Obama Approval

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

13% 11%

68%62%

32% 35%

87% 89%

32%38%

68% 65%

MALE FEMALE

33%38%

67%62%

NSS GOP STR GOP GOP IND DEM STR DEM NSS DEM

24%

7%12%

34%

64%

78%

32%

76%

93%88%

66%

36%

22%

68%

DEM GOP UND

77%

5%

28%23%

95%

72%

APRV DISAPRV UND

88%

3%

43%

12%

97%

57%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

19%

67%

81%

33%

Right Direction Wrong Track

4. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republicanand the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?

Statewide

Region

Age

47%

36%

17%

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE

UNDECIDED

Republican Candidate

Democrat Candidate

Undecided

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

47%45%

52%

43% 45%

38%34%

30%

40% 41%

15%

21%18% 17% 15%

47%53%

38%

47% 48%43%

38%

30%

41%38% 40% 38%

15% 17%21%

15%12%

19%

4. If the election for US Senate were being held today, and all you knew about the two candidates was that one was a Republicanand the other was a Democrat, for whom would you vote?


Party by Gender Mood Obama Approval

Republican Candidate

Democrat Candidate

Undecided


61%

89%

80%

40%

16%

7%

36%

21%

4%10%

30%

75%

89%

42%

19%

6%10%

30%

9%4%

22%

MALE FEMALE

51%

42%

31%

41%

18% 16%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

63%

14%20%

69%

17% 17%

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

81% 80%

13%18%

43%37%

12%7%

73% 76%

27%34%

8%13% 15%

6%

31% 30%

APRV DISAPRV

5%

77%83%

6%13%

17%

RD WT

7%

68%

80%

13%14%19%

5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?

Statewide

Region

Age

41% 51%32% 30% 28% 31%

50% 37%55%

50%44%

53%

9% 10% 12% 19%23%

15%

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

33% 40% 41% 37% 40%

51%48% 43% 50% 48%

10%13% 15% 12% 11%

39%

48%

12% 1%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF

Favorable Unfavorable Heard, No Opin Never Heard Of

5. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?



GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEMWOMEN

IND MEN IND WOMEN

63% 62%

12%

39% 36%

28%22%

73%

47% 46%

9%14% 12% 13% 16%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

53%

11%

32%

78%

13% 11%


47%

70% 62%

37%

13% 7%25%

41%

18% 25%

47%

75% 85% 51%

10% 12% 11% 15% 11% 7%

19%

MALE FEMALE

43%35%

46%49%

11% 14%

DEM GOP UND

4%

71%

25%

88%

16%

47%

8% 12%24%

APRV DISAPRV

5%

63%

86%

23%

8% 13%


6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen?

Statewide

Region

Age

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

41% 42% 42% 47% 49%

52% 51% 53% 48% 45%

5% 7% 5% 5% 6%

44% 39%51% 52% 44% 48%

51% 55% 39% 42% 47% 48%

4% 5% 10% 6% 9% 4%

45%

49%

5%0%

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE

HEARD OF BUT NO OPINION NEVER HEARD OF




MALE FEMALE

41% 48%

54% 45%

4% 6%


34%

12% 19%

43%

77%93%

41%

60%

83% 75%

49%

21%6%

54%

6% 6% 6% 8% 2% 1% 4%


GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

20% 17%

78% 77%

41% 45%

76%75%

20% 21%

53% 45%

4% 9% 2% 1% 6% 10%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

26%

81%

67%

14%6% 5%

DEM GOP UND

93%

9%

39%

5%

86%44%

2% 5%15%

APRV DISAPRV UND

93%

11%

72%

3%

83%

13%

3% 6%12%

6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jeanne Shaheen?

7. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President?

Statewide

Region

Age

33%

57%

10%

APPROVE DISAPPROVE UNDECIDED

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

33%30% 29%

36% 37%

51%

61% 61%55% 55%

16%9% 9% 9% 8%

31% 30%39% 38%

29%

39%

59% 61%

50% 51%59%

54%

11% 10% 11% 10% 12%7%

Approve Disapprove Undecided

7. And do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? s


Party by Gender Generic Ballot Mood

Approve Disapprove Undecided


19%

7%11%

31%

62%

78%

23%

73%

89%84%

58%

24%

9%

57%

8%3% 5%

11%15% 12%

20%

MALE FEMALE

29%

37%

63%

51%

7%12%

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

12% 10%

63% 61%

27%35%

84% 84%

24% 24%

65%

52%

3% 6%13% 16%

8%13%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

18%

64%

74%

23%

8%13%

DEM GOP UND

75%

3%

25%

9%

94%

58%

16%

3%

17%

RD WT

83%

6%5%

85%

12% 9%

8. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat?

Statewide

Region

Age

46%

44%

10%

SCOTT BROWN JEANNE SHAHEEN UNDECIDED

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

38%44%

50%47% 46%48%

43%40%

46% 46%

14% 13%10% 8% 8%

46%

55%

39%42% 41% 42%44%

38%

50% 49% 47% 47%

11%7%

11% 8% 11% 11%

Brown Shaheen Undecided

8. If the election was being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Scott Brown, Republican, or Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat?



STR GOP GOP IND DEM STR DEM NSS DEM

87%79%

42%

13%5%

31%

8%14%

43%

80%

93%

50%

5% 7%15%

7%2%

18%

MALE FEMALE

53%

39%38%

50%

9% 11%

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

79% 78%

16%11%

47%

36%

15% 14%

79% 81%

38%

49%

6% 9% 6% 8%15% 15%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

63%

12%

27%

79%

10% 9%

DEM GOP UND

1%

87%

28%

96%

5%

40%

3%7%

32%

APRV DISAPRV UND

2%

78%

9%

95%

10%

72%

3%12%

19%

Brown Shaheen Undecided

11. In your opinion, has congress done an adequate job securing the US/Mexico border?

Statewide

Region

Age

Yes No

18%

76%

YES NO

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

32%22% 19% 14% 13%

61%72% 75% 80% 81%

20% 13% 22% 20% 14% 21%

74% 81% 72% 71% 80% 72%

11. In your opinion, has congress done an adequate job securing the US/Mexico border?



Yes No


13% 6% 8% 14%

35%45%

14%

83% 92% 89% 79%

55%45%

78%

MALE FEMALE

19% 18%

78% 73%

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

10% 6%

41% 32%

14% 15%

88% 91%

56% 55%

82% 76%

LIKELY NOT LIKELY

7%

42%

88%

52%

DEM GOP UND

41%

4%11%

50%

94%81%

APRV DISAPRV UND

42%

3%

28%

47%

95%

59%

12. And in your opinion, how likely is it that terrorists will enter the US by crossing the US/Mexico border?

Statewide

Region

Age

Likely Not Likely

39%

27%

23%

11%

VERY LIKELY SOMEWHAT LIKELY

NOT TOO LIKELY NOT AT ALL LIKELY

18-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

67%

58%

67% 67%70%

33%

42%

33% 33%30%

69% 69%

57%63%

68% 65%

31% 31%

43%37%

32% 35%

12. And in your opinion, how likely is it that terrorists will enter the US by crossing the US/Mexico border?

Party Gender Mood



71%

88%82%

69%

45%38%

63%

29%

12%18%

31%

55%62%

37%

MALE FEMALE

67% 67%

33% 33%

GOP MEN GOPWOMEN

DEM MEN DEMWOMEN

IND MEN INDWOMEN

81%85%

42%48%

67%71%

19%15%

58%52%

33%29%

DEM GOP UND

37%

90%

67%63%

10%

33%

APRV DISAPRV UND

36%

87%

54%

64%

13%

46%

RD WT

36%

83%

64%

17%

Likely Not Likely

Magellan Strategies BR New Hampshire Survey Presentation 091514

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