Madhu Raman Acharya Executive Director, SACEPS › sites › default › files ›...
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Madhu Raman AcharyaExecutive Director, SACEPS
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Countries with special needs in South AsiaCountry Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan Nepal
LDCs
LLDCs
Emerging from Conflict
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Istanbul Programme of Action for the LDCs (2011-22)
ØFive goals
ØEight priorities
ØMore than 250 actions
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Istanbul Programme of Action (2011-2020)FIVE GOALS
Sustain economic growth
Build human capacities
Reduce vulnerability,
enhance resilience
Enhance financial resources
Enhance good governance at all
levels
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Istanbul Programme of Action (2011-2020)EIGHT PRIORITIES
Productive capacity
Agriculture, food security and rural
developmentTrade
Commodities Human and social development
Mobilization of financial resources
Multiple crises and other emerging challenges
Good governance at all levels
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Quantitative targets� Enabling half of 48 LDCs to graduate by 2020;� 7 % economic growth - sustainable, equitable and
inclusive; � 100 % Internet access by 2020; � Allocating 10 per cent of the national budgets of
LDCs for agriculture; � doubling the share of LDC exports by 2020; � reducing by half -people without access to safe
drinking water by 2015; � ODA 0.15–0. 20 per cent of GNI
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Qualitative targets � untying of aid/alignment to national priorities;� achieving sustainable levels of debts� reducing infant, under-five and maternal mortality
rates by 2020; � reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS and other diseases� increasing the primary energy supply per capita; � eradication of hunger; � universal access to free primary education, increasing
access to secondary and tertiary education; � Elimination of gender disparities;� full and effective participation of youth� Equal access of women and girls to education, basic
services etc.
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Graduation Scenario� Only one South Asian country has graduated so far : the
Maldives (2011)- Botswana (1994), Cape Verde (2007)� Three criteria for graduation:� Economic criterion � Human asset index criterion � Economic vulnerability index criterion.
� South Asian LDCs unlikely to graduate by 2020 at current growth rate/ Bhutan – likely to meet only "income criterion”� Projected : Samoa (2014)/ Eligible - Kiribati, Tuvalu, Vanuatu,
Equatorial Guinea, Angola� Lack strategy for accelerated graduation for each country � Need smooth transition after graduation
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Implementation/ Monitoring / Progress review
� Insufficient progress of implementation so far
� Absence of proper quantification of goals / many
remain aspirational
�Weak monitoring mechanism
� Methodology
� Development of indicators
� Creating a working group
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Problems of IPoA� Ambitious
� Does not address structural causes of least
development : problem in previous decade
� Weak on structural transformation issues
� Accountability at all levels, in pledged support
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Requisites for achieving IPoAØViability and competitiveness of productive capacityØJobs for growing number of young peopleØIncreasing agricultural productivity, revitalizing and diversifying –
key to food securityØReducing commodity dependence / diversification of exportsØGood governance (accountability at all levels)/ integrating the
IPOA in national plans and programmesØTargeted resilience programmes to- prevent external and internal
shocks (climate change/ disaster risk / economic slow down)ØMobilization of committed international support (decline in
ODA)/ reviewing aid effectiveness platform
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Trade� Goal of doubling the global exports from LDCs by 2020� Requires robust trade facilitation � Capacity building in trade negotiations� Increasing capacity to utilize market concessions (EBA, GSP)� SAFTA Experience: LDC provisions� Provision of special and differential treatment � Fewer sensitive list items� Longer time frame to eliminate tariffs� Revenue Compensation Mechanism� Technical Assistance� Non-tariff barriers- most problems
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Mobilization of financial resources� Only EU and Canada meeting 0.15% GNI target (lower rate)
on ODA
� ODA dropped by 8.9 per cent in real terms in 2011
� Reducing negative impact of the financial crisis on debt
sustainability
� Revive HIPC- Debt Initiative
� FDI declining: $26.4 billion in 2010 (20% below 2008)
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LLDCs..
�18 of 31 LLDCs have per capita
GDP below $ 1000
�16 of 31 LLDCs are LDCs as well
�3 LLDCs in South Asia
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LLDCs: Main ConstraintsØRemoteness/high transport costsØeast integrated (share of global trade below 1%)
Structural handicaps/ low growth rate/low GDPØNon-diversified exports/ commodity/ primary products/ØWeak competitivenessØHigh transaction costs (trade cost as much as 7 times higher)Ø Inhibitive transit procedures/ systemsØPoor infrastructure (transport, energy, communication)ØUnder development of domestic markets ØWeak human resources, technical and institutional capabilitiesØAdditional vulnerability to food security, climate change,
economic slowdown
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Almaty programme of action
ØCreating win-win for both transit countries and
LLDCs
ØOverarching goal: Forging partnership for
developing efficient transit transport systems to
help LLDCs achieve developmental goals
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Almaty Programme : Five Priority Areas.
Transit policy Infrastructure
Trade MeasuresInternational support
measures
Implementation and review
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APoA Shortcomings
� Non-quantification of most goals
� Inability to address new vulnerabilities
� Weak monitoring and implementation
(mid-term review 2008)
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LLDCS�Decade coming to end�Review conference in �Consultative process�New compact�Synergy with post-2015 development agenda
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New programme LLDCs: PrioritiesØStrategic shift required/ multidimensional approachØpath of sustainable and inclusive economic growthØHarmonizing transit policiesØRegional transport agreementsØRobust trade facilitationØ Increasing productive capacityØBetter regional integrationØBuilding resilience to external shocksØ Investment in infrastructure/FDI- Investment Forum ØAsian Highway, SAARC Multimodal transportØMore support in aid, trade, debt, technologyØCapacity building- human, technical, institutional Ø Implementation and monitoring
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Growth is not enough
� LDCs registered high growth : 7.1% (2002-08) � Slowed down after global economic crises� Growth not inclusive enough to achieve structural
transformation� Need inclusive, sustainable and resilient growth
strategy � Focus on structural causes of constraints, not
symptoms
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Way forward� Implementation of global pacts IPoA, APoA� Synergy between review processes and post-2015 development agenda� Post-2015 development agenda should focus on LDCs, LLDCs� Support programmes for resilience against multiple crises (climate,
financial crisis, food and energy crisis etc)� Focus on capacity building� Support to regional integration� Better border infrastructure/ Investment in roads, railways, seaports,
communications� Speedier implementation of SAFTA provisions� South Asia connectivity blueprint� Enhanced role of larger developing countries� Greater accountability at all levels� Role of regional organizations and multilateral agencies
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Regional economic integration with large developing economies� Increasing interdependence between LDCs and developing
countries (UNCTAD LDC Report 2011)� Intensification of economic and political ties� Developing countries absorbing more trade from LDCs and
sources of more FDI than the developed countries � South absorbed $ 69 billion from LDCs, while developed and
transition countries absorbed $ 59.5 billion (in 2009) � Two thirds of the $26 billion of workers’ remittances to the
LDCs originated in Southern countries in 2010� Need for a proactive and strategic approach to the integration
of LDCs with their developing countries in the region � “developmental regionalism”-UNCTAD
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Role of regional and sub-regional organizations
� Partnership� Connectivity studies- implementation� Trade facilitation� Energy� Infrastructure� Resilience programmes� Support to SAARC LDC fund� Accelerated graduation strategy� Synergy on post-2015 development agenda