Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

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Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMEN T Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232
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Transcript of Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Page 1: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

MacroeconomicsUNEMPLOYMENT

Economics – A Course Companion(Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232

Page 2: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Introduction to Unemployment

• A low level of unemployment is one of the main macroeconomic goals of every government.

Page 3: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

What is unemployment and how is it measured?

According to the International Labour Organization (ILO) unemployment is defined as:

“People of working age who are without work, available for work and actively seeking employment”

Page 4: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

The Unemployment Rate &the Labour Force

Unemployment Rate• The unemployment rate is the number of

people who are unemployed expressed as a percentage of the total labour force (not the whole population)

Labour Force• Otherwise known as the work force, is

essentially the “economically active population”.

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Who is not part of the Workforce?

• Although it varies from country to country, there is a specified age at which people are eligible to start work and retire.

• Anybody outside this age is not part of the workforce.

• Students attending school are not part of the workforce, as they are not looking for work.

• Parents who stay at home to look after their children are not considered part of the workforce.

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Who is not part of the Workforce?

People not part of the workforce include:• Children• Students• Stay-at-home parents• Retired People• Others who are choosing not to (or are not able to

work). • Even though they do not have jobs, such groups are

not considered to be unemployed. • If people are not actively seeking employment, they

are not part of the workforce.

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Measuring the Labour Force & the Unemployed

• It is actually quite difficult to measure the size of the labour force and the number of people that are unemployed.

• Each country has its own national system for measuring the number of people that are unemployed.

• Information is gathered from national censuses and surveys of the population, along with administrative records such as unemployment insurance records and social security information.

• There may inaccuracies in such data and there may also be inconsistency in the definitions across different countries.

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Differences in measuring Unemployment: Country Examples

Austria & Switzerland• Unemployment data based on the people who

are registered as unemployed.Britain & Belgium• It is calculated as the number of people who

are claiming unemployment benefits.

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Discouraged Workers: Long Term Unemployed

• There is category of workers known as “discouraged workers”.

• These people are long term unemployed who have given up the search for work and are no longer eligible for benefits.

• As soon as they give up the search, they are no longer part of the unemployed.

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Page 11: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

DISTRIBUTION OF UNEMPLOYED

• Along with differences in methods of measurement it is worth pointing out another limitation of the unemployment rate.

• As with many other indicators, a national unemployment rate establishes an average for a whole country, and this is very likely to mask inequalities among different groups within the economy.

• One should be careful in using the national rate as the basis for making conclusions about different groups of people.

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DISPARTIES WITHIN A COUNTRY

Disparities include:

• Geographical Disparities• Age Disparities• Ethnic Disparities • Gender Disparities

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DISPARTIES WITHIN A COUNTRYGeographical Disparities

• Unemployment is likely to vary quite markedly among regions in a country, as most countries do have some regions that are more prosperous than others.

• Inner city unemployment might be higher than suburban or rural unemployment (or vice versa).

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DISPARTIES WITHIN A COUNTRYAge Disparities

• Unemployment rates in the under 25 age group are higher than the national average in many countries.

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DISPARTIES WITHIN A COUNTRYEthnic Disparities

• Ethnic minorities suffer from higher unemployment rates than the national average.

• This may be the result of differences in educational opportunities or possibly due to attitudes and/or prejudices of employers.

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DISPARTIES WITHIN A COUNTRYGender Disparities

• Unemployment rates among women have tended to be much higher than rates for men in many industrialised countries.

• There may be all kinds of reasons for this:- Differences in education- Discrimination by employers- Other Social factors.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Unemployment poses great costs to the economy.These costs can be grouped into different categories:• Cost of Unemployment to unemployed people

themselves• Costs of Unemployment to society.• Costs of Unemployment to the economy as a

whole.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENTCost of Unemployment to the Unemployed People

themselves

• Unemployed people will receive less income than they would do, if they were employed. This is assuming that they receive some unemployment benefits. If there is no unemployment benefits, then the situation is much worse.

• A reduction in income implies a lower standard of living for the unemployed and their family.

• The costs worsen the longer people are unemployed.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENTImpact on Unemployed People themselves

Mental Health Issues• A person who remains unemployed for a long

period of time could become increasingly dejected and this could contribute to high levels of stress. Stress leads to the problems of anxiety and depression.

• Erosion of mental health can lead to relationship break down and, in the extreme, higher levels of suicide.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT Impact on Society

• The social costs of unemployment can most clearly be seen in areas where the are high levels of unemployment in the form of poverty, higher rates of crime and vandalism, increasing gang activities etc.

• While it would be a simplification to blame these problems entirely on unemployment, they are not unconnected.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENTImpact on Economy as a Whole

Production Possibility Curve• A production possibility curve can be used to

illustrate the key problem facing an economy with unemployment.

• If actual output is less than potential output due to the unemployment, then the economy is foregoing possible output and would be operating at a point within its production possibility curve.

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COSTS OF UNEMPLOYMENTImpact on Economy as a Whole

Opportunity Cost• There is the opportunity cost of the government’s

spending on unemployment benefits. • Unemployed people pay no tax and spend less

money. The government earns less in indirect taxes as well.

• The government may have to spend more money to solve the social problems created by unemployment.

Page 23: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

The Pool of Unemployment

• At any given point in time, there will be a number of people that are unemployed.

• This may be referred to as the “pool” of unemployment.

• However, this “pool” will be in a constant state of change.

• At any given time people are becoming unemployed, while others are gaining employment. The level of unemployment depends on the relationship between the two.

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Inflows and Outflows into the Pool of Unemployment

• If more people are becoming unemployed than gaining jobs, then the level of unemployment will rise.

• If more jobs are being created so that more people are gaining jobs than loosing jobs, then the level of unemployment will fall.

• These can be referred to as the inflows and outflows into the pool of unemployment.

Page 25: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Factors Causing Unemployment to Rise: Inflows

• People who have lost their jobs• People who have resigned• People who have left school, but have not yet

found work. • People who are trying to return to work after

having left it (eg: stay at home parents returning to the workforce)

• People who have immigrated into the country but have not yet found work.

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Factors Causing Unemployment to Fall: Outflows

• People who find jobs• People who retire• People who go (back) into education• People who choose to stay at home to look

after children• People who emigrate to other countries• People that give up the search for jobs.

Page 27: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Inflows and Outflows into the Pool of Unemployment

• The movements in and out of the pool of unemployment, affect the supply of labour in an economy at any given time.

• This, along with demand for labour, will determine the level of unemployment and unemployment in an economy.

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CAUSES OF UNEMPLOYMENT

There are two main categories of unemployment:• Equilibrium Unemployment • Disequilibrium Unemployment

First, it is necessary to examine diagrams Explaining an economy’s labour market.

Page 29: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

THE LABOUR MARKET

This diagram shows the macroeconomic labour market. The y-axis on the diagram represents the price of labour, as measured by the average real wage rate. This shows the average level of wages adjusted for inflation. The labour market represents the demand and supply for all labour in the economy . The demand for labour is more accurately called the aggregate demand for labour ADL. It includes the demand not just for one type of worker, but for all labour that is involved in producing an economy’s goods and services. The aggregate curve shows the total demand for labour at a given wage rate.

The aggregate demand curve slopes downwards, because at a lower wage level, producers are more willing to take on more labour (eg producers demand for workers increases.)The aggregate supply curve (ASL ) illustrates the total number of an economy’s workers that are willing and able to work in the economy at every given average wage rate. As the average wage rate increases, more people are willing to work and so the ASL curve slopes upwards.

Page 30: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Equilibrium in the Labour Market

• The Labour market is in equilibrium where the aggregate demand for labour is equal to the aggregate supply of labour.

• Although the previous graph resembles any microeconomic demand and supply diagram, it is actually a macroeconomic model, as it describes aggregates in the economy.

• The equilibrium wage for economy is established by the interaction of ADL and ASL and is shown on the diagram as We.

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DISEQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

• Disequilibrium unemployment occurs when there are any conditions that prevent the labour market from “clearing” that is, reaching the labour market equilibrium.

There are two types of disequilibrium unemployment:• Real Wage Unemployment or Classical

Unemployment• Demand-Deficient or Cyclical Unemployment.

Page 32: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

DISEQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENTReal-Wage Unemployment

• This type of unemployment may be referred to as classical unemployment as it represents the view of classical and (neo-classical) economists that argue that some unemployment is caused by trade unions and government minimum wages interfering with the labour market.

• Trade Unions negotiate wages that are higher than the equilibrium and a minimum wage is set above the equilibrium.

Page 33: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

REAL WAGE UNEMPLOYMENT OR CLASSICAL UNEMPLOYMENT

As a result of the higher enforced wage – W1 (minimum wage legislation and trade union efforts) the aggregate supply of labour is greater than the aggregate demand for labour and unemployment of a-b is created. In this situation, the trade unions and/or government are preventing the market from clearing.

Page 34: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Solutions to Real-Wage Unemployment

• If the trade unions are preventing the labour market from clearing, then the government should reduce the ability of unions to negotiate higher wages.

• Similarly, if minimum wages prevent the market clearing, then the minimum wage should be reduced or abolished.

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Arguments against abolishing the Minimum Wage

• It will be very difficult to reduce union power.• Abolishing minimum wages will harm poorest

workers the most.• High-income workers are not the ones who receive

minimum wages.• A reduction in the minimum wage will reduce the

income and living standards of those workers who are already earning low wages.

• Such a policy can lead to a worsening distribution of income within an economy – greater inequity.

Page 36: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

DISEQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENTDemand Deficient or

Cyclical Unemployment

• This type of unemployment is associated with the cyclical downturns in the economy.

• As an economy moves into a period of slower growth (or negative growth in the case of a recession), aggregate demand tends to fall as consumers spend less on goods and services

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CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT / DEMAND DEFICIENT Assume the economy is initially operating at a high level of economic activity at Y1 in graph (a) There is aggregate demand for labour at ADL in graph (b) so the equilibrium wage will be We for Qe workers. The labour market is equilibrium. Now assume a fall in aggregate demand in the economy results in a fall in the demand for labour as firms cut back on production as shown in graph (a). Firms will reduce their demand for labour from ADL to ADL1 as shown in graph (b). If labour markets functioned perfectly, then the average real wage would fall to W1. However, this is not the case in reality, as wages are “sticky downwards”.

ADL

AD1

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Wages are “sticky downwards”

• Wages are “sticky downwards”.• This means that while workers wages can

easily increase, it is less likely that wages will fall due to minimum wages and trade unions.

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Reasons for Wage “Stickiness”

Firms realize that paying lower real wages is likely to lead to discontent and reduced motivation among workers. This may result in lower productivity.

Firms may not be able to reduce wages due to labour contracts and trade union power.

Since wages are likely to remain “stuck up” at We the aggregate supply of labour will be greater than the aggregate demand for labour, and unemployment of a-b will be created.

Page 40: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Keynesian Unemployment

• Demand deficient or cyclical unemployment has also been named “Keynesian Unemployment”.

• Keynes observed that it was quite possible for the economy to operate well below full employment, and this was likely to result in high levels of unemployment.

Page 41: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Solution to Demand Deficient Unemployment

• As this problem is due to low levels of aggregate demand, the solution to this type of unemployment should be clear – the government can intervene to bring about an increase in aggregate demand through fiscal or monetary policy.

• That is, the government can use Keynesian demand management policies.

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EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT ORNATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT OR

FULL EMPLOYMENT

• Theoretically, the labour market may be in equilibrium with no demand deficient or real wage unemployment, but there might still be unemployed people.

• This is because there are other types of unemployment that occur even when the labour market is in equilibrium.

• When the labour market is in equilibrium, the number of job vacancies is the same as the number of people looking for work. This is full employment.

Page 43: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

• With full employment there is no disequilibrium unemployment.

• Jobs exist but people are either unwilling or unable to take the jobs that are available.

Page 44: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

This diagram introduces a new curve – a measure of the total labour force (LF) Why is the number of workers in the force greater than the aggregate supply of labour? The Aggregate Supply of labour shows the number of people willing and able to work at every given wage rate. However, at any given wage rate, there will be more people who claim to be looking for jobs than those who are actually willing or able to take the jobs. Thus at We, Qe people are willing and able to take jobs, yet a-b unemployment exits.

Page 45: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

No disequilibrium = Jobs Available, but unemployment still exists. WHY??

Examples• There may be job vacancies in the financial services

industry, but the unemployed assembly line workers are not able to take the jobs because they lack the appropriate education and skills. The worker is unable to take the available jobs. (structural unemployment)

• There may be job vacancies in the domestic services industry, but the unemployed mechanical engineers don’t want the positions. The worker in unwilling to the take the available jobs

• People may also be unaware that jobs are available.

Page 46: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

The Gap between Aggregate Supply of Labour & the Labour Force Curve

• The gap between the aggregate supply of labour curve and the labour force curve becomes smaller at higher wages.

• At lower wage rates, there are fewer workers that are willing to work, people would rather be unemployed than take the jobs that are available.

• However, as the real wage rate rises, more people are willing to take the jobs, thus the gap between the two decreases.

Page 47: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

THREE TYPES OF EQUILIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT

There are three main types of Equilibrium Unemployment:• Frictional • Seasonal • Structural Unemployment

Together they constitute what is known as thenatural unemployment in the country

Page 48: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

What is full employment?

• An economy is at full employment when the unemployment that exists in the economy is only the natural unemployment (frictional, seasonal, structural unemployment)

• With this type of unemployment, there is one common feature: jobs exist but people are unwilling or unable to take these jobs.

Page 49: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

What are solutions to natural unemployment?

• Policies need to be designed to make people more able to take the vacant jobs or encourage them to be more willing to take the available jobs.

• These policies will cause the aggregate supply curve of labour to shift to the right.

• Supply side policies should be designed to increase the quantity and improve the quality of the labour.

Page 50: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

SUPPLY SIDE POLICIESInterventionist VS market-oriented policies

Interventionist Policies• True to their name, interventionist policies rely on

government involvement in the labour market.

Market Oriented Policies• Market oriented policies emphasize the importance

of allowing the labour market to function freely without government intervention.

Page 51: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Frictional Unemployment

• This is the short term unemployment that occurs when people are in between jobs, or they have left education and are waiting to take up their first job.

• This type of unemployment is easily recognisable as natural unemployment as it is natural for people to leave jobs in the hope of finding better ones.

Page 52: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Frictional Unemployment

• Frictional Unemployment is not perceived to be a negative outcome in any dynamic economy.

• If people leave one job, the assumption is that they will move on to a job where they can be more productive.

• As soon as such members of the labour force get a job, they will no longer be unemployed.

Page 53: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Solutions to Frictional Unemployment

• Even though frictional unemployment is not seen as a serious problem in an economy due to its short term nature, there are ways the government can reduce this level of unemployment, if it is believed that people are remaining unemployed for too long a time.

• Some would argue that people will have little incentive to find a job if the unemployment benefits available to them in their country are generous and allow them to take their time in looking.

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Solutions to Frictional Unemployment

Lower Unemployment Benefits• Economists who prefer to allow markets to operate

freely would say that governments should lower unemployment benefits to encourage unemployed workers to take the jobs that are available, rather then allow then the chance to wait for a better job to become available.

• If unemployment benefits were reduced, then the unemployed workers might become more willing to work, thus shifting the aggregate supply of labour to the right.

Page 55: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Solutions to Frictional Unemployment

Improving Information Flow to Job Seekers• Sometimes people who are frictionally unemployed

remain without work because they are not aware of appropriate vacancies that exist.

• In such a case frictionally unemployment can be reduced by improving the flow of information from potential employers to people looking for jobs.

• This can be through the Internet, job sites, newspapers, job centres and employment counsellors. This would reflect a more interventionist approach.

Page 56: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Seasonal Unemployment • It is natural in many economies for some workers

to be employed on a seasonal basis.• That is, demand for certain workers falls at certain

times of the year.• Example: The Tourism Industry tends to work in

seasons – there is not much demand for a ski-instructor in Austria in July. A range of agricultural jobs like fruit picking are also seasonal.

Page 57: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

Solutions to Seasonal Unemployment

• Such unemployment can be reduced by encouraging people to take different jobs in the “off season”.

• Reduced unemployment benefits and improving the flow of information may also be beneficial.

Page 58: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT Structural Unemployment

• This is by far the worst type of equilibrium unemployment and occurs as result of the changing structure of the economy.

• Structural unemployment occurs for many reasons.• (1) There is a permanent fall in the demand for a particular

type of labour due to technology or changing consumer tastes.

• This is natural in a growing economy. There will always be new types of jobs being created (eg: software engineers) and other jobs in a country may disappear (eg: coal mining) making people unemployed.

Page 59: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT

Structural Unemployment

• One reason that structural unemployment is so harmful is that it tends to result in long-term unemployment as people who lose their jobs in one area lack the necessary skills to take on the newly created jobs.

• (2) In this case they lack the occupational mobility to change jobs .

• It may be that jobs are created in part of the country, while the unemployed are living in another part of the country. In this case they (3) lack the geographical mobility.

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EQULIBRIUM UNEMPLOYMENT OR NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT Structural Unemployment

• (4) Globalization & Low Cost Foreign Labour

Companies in first world countries, will be attracted by cheap foreign labour abroad in the developing world and if possible will take advantage of this opportunity by moving their operations.

Page 61: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

CAUSES OF STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENTTechnology

• It is possible that new technologies can make certain types of labour unnecessary.

• By its vary nature, automation reduces the need for labour.

• For example, ATMs obviously reduce the demand for human bank tellers.

• This can be referred to as technological unemployment.

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CAUSES OF STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENTLow Cost Labour in Foreign Countries

• Demand for a particular type of labour might fall due to lower cost labour in foreign countries.

• Eg: There is less demand for furniture made in Italy as a result of competition with Chinese furniture markers whose costs are lower. This obviously leads to higher unemployment among Italian furniture makers.

Page 63: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

CAUSES OF STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENTChanges in Consumer Tastes

• Changes in consumer taste may lead to a fall in demand for a particular type of labour.

• For example, people in some areas are increasingly concerned about the negative externalities associated with production and consumption of coal.

• This has lead to a search for alternatives and a fall in demand for coal in some countries.

• As a result, coal miners have become structurally unemployed.

Page 64: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: INTERVENTIONIST POLICIES

A key policy is to try and enhance the occupational mobility of people so they become more able to take the available jobs.• A long-term solution involves an education system that

trains people to be more occupationally flexible.• Evidence suggests that people in more developed

economies will have to change jobs several times in their career. It is clear that an education system must make people able to learn the skills to adapt to rapidly changing economic conditions.

Page 65: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: INTERVENTIONIST POLICIES

• Another strategy to improve occupational mobility involves spending on adult retraining programmes to help people acquire the necessary skills to match available jobs.

• The government could also give subsidies to firms that provide training for their workers.

• If jobs exist in other parts of the country, a government might provide subsidies or tax breaks to encourage people to move to those areas.

• This enhances their geographic mobility.

Page 66: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: INTERVENTIONIST POLICIES

• Governments can also support apprenticeship programs, so that potential workers can acquire the skills needed in the labour force.

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SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: INTERVENTIONIST POLICIES

Problems with Interventionist Policies• There are two main disadvantages to such

policies. • The first, is that they are likely to involve a high

opportunity cost as governments will have to forgo spending in other areas in order to be able to afford the strategies.

• The second, is that these policies are really only effective in the long term.

Page 68: Macroeconomics UNEMPLOYMENT Economics – A Course Companion (Blink & Dorton, 2007, p215-232.

SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: MARKET ORIENTED/FREE MARKET POLICIES

• Governments should reduce unemployment benefits to give unemployed people the incentive to take the jobs that are available.

• Market oriented economists feel that government intervention and labour market regulations reduces “labour market flexibility” and discourages businesses from hiring workers. Therefore they would argue in favour of deregulation of labour markets.

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SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: MARKET ORIENTED/FREE MARKET POLICIES

Deregulated Labour Markets

• This involves reducing or removing the legislation that businesses must follow in their hiring, firing and employment practices.

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SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: MARKET ORIENTED/FREE MARKET POLICIES

Arguments Against Free Market Policies• People who receive lower unemployment benefits

will have a lower living standard and this will increase inequity in the economy.

• It can be assumed that labour market regulations are in place to protect workers from unfair treatment such as being fired with due cause.

• Labour market regulations also guarantee certain conditions of work, such as working hours, holidays and safety at work.

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SOLUTIONS TO STRUCTURAL UNEMPLYMENT: MARKET ORIENTED/FREE MARKET POLICIES

Arguments Against Free Market Policies• If there is labour market deregulation, it would not

be surprising to find worse working conditions for labour.

• While unemployment might fall with deregulation and the economy’s output rise, there might be a high cost for the workers themselves.

• This can contribute inequity in the economy where the benefits of higher economic growth are not shared by all.

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SOLUTIONS TO DEMAND DEFICIENT UNEMPLOYMENT

Demand Deficient Unemployment• If the economy is experienced a downturn in

economic activity, demand management policies will be suitable.

• This will involve a Expansionary Fiscal Policy.

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Problems with Demand Management PoliciesExpansionary Fiscal Policy: Budget Deficits

• In order to use expansionary fiscal policy, a government may have to run a budget deficit and spend more money than it takes in revenues.

• While budget deficits are not necessarily a problem in the short run, this may lead to fiscal problems in the longer run.

• If government reduce taxes, there is no guarantee that people will spend their extra disposable income. If consumer confidence is low, then people might prefer to save and aggregate demand might remain depressed.

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Problems with Demand Management PoliciesExpansionary Monetary Policy

• If Central Banks reduce interest rates to encourage spending, there is not guarantee that is will have the desired effect or increasing consumption and or investment.

• If consumer or business confidence is low, then there is unlikely to be an increase in borrowing to finance consumption and investment.

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Problems with Demand Management PoliciesTIME LAG

• Even when demand management policies may appear to be successful, there is likely to be a lag before they come into effect.

• It is possible that aggregate demand will increase, but by the time that it does, the economy may have already recovered, and the extra impetus may be inflationary.

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Policies for Natural Unemployment

• Frictional, Season and Structural Unemployment are best managed by supply-side policies.

• Using demand management policies to cure these types of unemployment will be unsuccessful.

• At full employment, the economy is producing near full capacity.

• Increases in aggregate demand at this point would result in inflationary pressure.

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Can policy makers identify the type of unemployment?

• The problem facing policy makers is that in practice it might be very difficult to distinguish between different types of unemployment.

• Moreover an economy may be suffering from several different types of unemployment.

• At any rate, it would most common to see governments using a mix of demand and supply-side policies.

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Final Word: Demand Side Policies

• Demand side policies, particularly the manipulation of interest rates, are commonly used to narrow possible business cycle fluctuations and reduce output gaps.

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Final Word: Supply Side Policies

• Supply side policies are vital to ensure that labour is suitably skilled and flexible to adapt to changing economic conditions so that the LRAS is always shifting to the right.

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CROWDING OUT (HL Concept)

• When governments run budget deficits in order to stimulate an economy and reduce unemployment, there is a potential problem known as “crowding out”.

• To run a budget deficit the government has to borrow money.

• Governments do this by selling government bonds such as treasury bills or treasury bonds.

• These bonds are sold by the government to financial institutions, who them sell them on to people who want to save their money.

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CROWDING OUT (HL Concept)

• New bonds being sold on the market, essentially increase demand for savings or loanable funds that are in the economy.

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There is a general amount of savings in the economy and this is represented by the supply of loanable funds curve. The price of these loanable funds is the interest rate. The increased demand from D1 to D2 for savings in order to finance a deficit results in an increase in the interest rate from i1 to i2. The higher interest rate may reduce the incentive for businesses to invest, so it is possible that investment will fall from I1 to I2 as shown in graph (b).

CROWDING OUT

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Crowding Out

• With crowding out, we have a situation where the government wished to increase aggregate demand by increasing government spending, but the higher interest rate causes interest-sensitive private investment to fall, thus reducing aggregate demand.

• Future private sector investment has been “crowded out” due to the government spending.

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Does Crowding Out really occur?

• Whether or not crowding out does occur and the extent to which it might occur is subject to much debate in economics.

Keynesian Perspective• Keynesian economists say it will not occur if the economy

is producing at less than full employment Neo Classical Economists• The neo classical economists who are opposed to the use

of demand management policies, argue that crowding out is a significant problem associated with increased government spending.

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Different Types of Crowding OutPhysical

Physical Crowding Out• This occurs if the economy is close to its

productive capacity. • Increased spending on government projects

could see resources, such as labour, being directed away from the private sectors towards the public sector.

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Different Types of Crowding OutPsychological

Psychological Crowding Out• This occurs if the private sector worries about

what it perceives to be too much intervention by the government in the economy.

• In this case, the private sector may delay or cancel investment projects.

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EXAMINATION QUESTIONSShort Response Questions (10 marks each)

1. With the help of a diagram, explain the cause of demand-deficient unemployment.

2. With the help of a diagram, explain two possible causes of structural unemployment

3. Explain the concept of crowding out.

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EXAMINATION QUESTIONSEssay Questions

1a. Explain the costs associated with unemployment (10 marks)

1b. Evaluate the policies available to a government that wishes to reduce its country’s unemployment rate. (15 marks)

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EXAMINATION QUESTIONSEssay Questions

1a. Distinguish between equilibrium and disequilibrium unemployment

(10 marks)

1b. Evaluate the view that the only effective way to reduce unemployment is

through government intervention (15 marks)