Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

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Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade

Transcript of Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Page 1: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia

DPA / VBT Visit

30th MayHotel Moskva, Belgrade

Page 2: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

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Key observations

GDP growth of Serbia is related to trends in the EUAfter strong growth in period 2000-2005, in last six years

average growth was 2.1%

Inflation is like a family memberEconomy functions with inflationary expectations higher

than in the EU, average for last six years 6.7%

The EU is a key foreign trade partner of SerbiaTrade deficit is a traditional problem

Unemployment is highLow labour costs

Budget deficit linked with IMF stand-by agreement

Page 3: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

GDP and growth

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

3.7

5.5

3.9

-3.5

1

1.9

0.5

3

Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF

Page 4: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

GDP (in €, mln)

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011€ 15,000

€ 17,000

€ 19,000

€ 21,000

€ 23,000

€ 25,000

€ 27,000

€ 29,000

€ 31,000

€ 33,000

€ 35,000

23,305

28,468

32,668

28,957

28,006

31,140

Source: National Bank of Serbia and Ministry of Finance

Page 5: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Inflation (%)

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.0

2

4

6

8

10

12

5.95.4

10.1

3.6

8.6

7

4.1 4.3

Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF

Page 6: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Foreign trade

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

6,9498,686

10,1578,478

10,07011,470

-11,971

-16,016

-18,843

-13,577-14,838

-16,823

Exports of goods and services (in € million) Imports of goods and services (in € million)Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office

Page 7: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Trade deficit and GDP

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

-8,000

-7,000

-6,000

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Current account balance (in EUR million) as % of GDPSource: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office

Page 8: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Unemployment

8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

5

10

15

20

25

20.9

18.1

13.6

16.1

19.2

23

Source: Statistical Office

Page 9: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Labour costs in €

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q12012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

259.5

347.6358.4

337.9330.06

372.5357.579587135503

Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office

Page 10: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

Public debt

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

37.6

30.929.2

34.5

44.0

47.7

RS public debt (external + internal, in % of GDP)Source: National Bank of Serbia

Page 11: Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.

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What could it mean for you?

Recovery of the local market slow

Inflation less of a risk than before

(Gradual) depreciation of local currency

Costs of labour to remain competitive

Calculating FX risks when selling to Serbia

Fiscal policy reforms necessary

Reduction of subsidies