Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.
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Transcript of Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia DPA / VBT Visit 30th May Hotel Moskva, Belgrade.
Macroeconomic Snapshot – Serbia
DPA / VBT Visit
30th MayHotel Moskva, Belgrade
2
Key observations
GDP growth of Serbia is related to trends in the EUAfter strong growth in period 2000-2005, in last six years
average growth was 2.1%
Inflation is like a family memberEconomy functions with inflationary expectations higher
than in the EU, average for last six years 6.7%
The EU is a key foreign trade partner of SerbiaTrade deficit is a traditional problem
Unemployment is highLow labour costs
Budget deficit linked with IMF stand-by agreement
GDP and growth
3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
3.7
5.5
3.9
-3.5
1
1.9
0.5
3
Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF
GDP (in €, mln)
4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011€ 15,000
€ 17,000
€ 19,000
€ 21,000
€ 23,000
€ 25,000
€ 27,000
€ 29,000
€ 31,000
€ 33,000
€ 35,000
23,305
28,468
32,668
28,957
28,006
31,140
Source: National Bank of Serbia and Ministry of Finance
Inflation (%)
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 est. 2013 est.0
2
4
6
8
10
12
5.95.4
10.1
3.6
8.6
7
4.1 4.3
Source: National Bank of Serbia and the IMF
Foreign trade
6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
6,9498,686
10,1578,478
10,07011,470
-11,971
-16,016
-18,843
-13,577-14,838
-16,823
Exports of goods and services (in € million) Imports of goods and services (in € million)Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
Trade deficit and GDP
7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
-8,000
-7,000
-6,000
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
Current account balance (in EUR million) as % of GDPSource: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
Unemployment
8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
5
10
15
20
25
20.9
18.1
13.6
16.1
19.2
23
Source: Statistical Office
Labour costs in €
9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q12012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
259.5
347.6358.4
337.9330.06
372.5357.579587135503
Source: National Bank of Serbia and Statistical Office
Public debt
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
37.6
30.929.2
34.5
44.0
47.7
RS public debt (external + internal, in % of GDP)Source: National Bank of Serbia
11
What could it mean for you?
Recovery of the local market slow
Inflation less of a risk than before
(Gradual) depreciation of local currency
Costs of labour to remain competitive
Calculating FX risks when selling to Serbia
Fiscal policy reforms necessary
Reduction of subsidies