Macro Analytics - 05-15-12 - Analytics I - Andrew Joseph
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The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document. Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics MACRO ANALYTICS - I Macro Analytics May 15 th , 2012
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In this first of a three part series, Gordon T Long and Andrew Joseph discuss the Macro Analytics of the market.
Transcript of Macro Analytics - 05-15-12 - Analytics I - Andrew Joseph
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Gordon T Long GordonTLong.com
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
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MACRO ANALYTICS
Andrew Joseph Principal: GoldenPhi Editor & Analyst: Triggers.ca Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
APRIL Reports
GMTP – 189 Pages• Risk Levels & Assessment• Tipping Points• Macro Issues (US, EU, Asia)• Macro Market Drivers
MATA – 203 Pages• Technical Analysis• Fundamental Analysis• Risk Analysis
MMC – 31 Pages• Macro Message – Theme
SUPPORTING AUDIO GMTP – 30 Minutes / 35 SlidesMATA – 20 Minutes / 23 Slides
TRIGGER$ – 34 Pages
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
GordonTLong.com
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsApril 17th, 2012
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
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THESIS 2012: FINANCIAL REPRESSION GordonTLong.com
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MACRO ANALYTICS - I
OUR APPROACH - Macro Analytics
We take a completely different approach to Techno-Fundamental Analysis. It is best summarized as follows:
TIME FRAME DURATION APPROACH KEY TOOLS
Longer Term 18 Months + Fundamental Analysis Financial Metrics
Intermediate 12 Months Risk Analysis Global Macro AnalysisTipping Points - Pivots
Short Term Less than 90 Days Technical Analysis Elliott Wave Principle, WD Gann, JD Hurst, Bradley Model,Proprietary Mandelbrot Fractal Generator
The Global Macro Analysis, which is so prevalent in our articles and on our Tipping Points site, plays the critical role of bridging our highly analytic Technical Analysis with our detailed Fundamental Analysis.
We have found that, in the short term, the markets are driven by emotion and sentiment. In the longer term, they are driven by financial fundamentals. As Warren Buffett is often quoted as saying: “In the short term the market is a slot machine but in the long term it is a weighing machine.”
We have found that the transition shows a lagging correlation between changes in the Global Macro, followed by Corporate Earnings, then followed by the sell side analyst community estimates.
Our focus within the Global Macro is:
i) Quantification of Risk,ii) Establishment of pivots through the mapping of Tipping Points, and iii) Identification of ever shifting competitive financial drivers to corporate profitability.
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
MACRO SUBJECT DISCUSSION DATE GUEST SLIDES TIME (Min)
EURO EXPERIMENT - SOROS 4/24/2012 John Rubino 42 37
JAPANIZATION - KOO 4/26/2012 John Rubino 40 39
GLOBAL IMBALANCES - STIGLITZ 4/28/2012 John Rubino 26 24
GENERATIONAL CYCLES 5/01/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 18 27
US HOUSING MARKET 5/03/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 15 24
DOOMED MIDDLE CLASS 5/05/2012 Charles Hugh Smith 22 21
GROWTH: Fake Numbers 5/08/2012 Ty Andros 26 31
GROWTH: REAL versus Nominal 5/10/2012 Ty Andros 36 30
GROWTH: Consequences of the Lies 5/12/2012 Ty Andros 20 36
===== =====
256 269
4 ½ Hours
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsApril 17th, 2012
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsApril 21st, 2012
EURO EXPERIMENT – Why the Situation is Getting Worse
=> Weakening Euro
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Macro AnalyticsApril 21st, 2012
=> Weakening Euro
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsApril 21st, 2012
=> Weakening Euro
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“JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo
Macro AnalyticsApril 26th, 2012
=> Volatile YEN & CARRY
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“JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo
Macro AnalyticsApril 26th, 2012
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“JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo
down87%
25
40
55
70
85
100
115
130
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
(Sep.1990=100, Seasonally Adjusted)
Real GDP(Right Scale)
Land Price Index in Six Major Cities(Commercial, Left Scale)
(Sep. 1990=100)
Sources: Cabinet Of f ice, Japan Real Estate Institute
Nominal GDP (Right Scale)
Likely GDP Path w/o Government Action
Last seen in 1973
Cumulative 90-05 GDP
Supported by Government
Action: ~ ¥2000 trillion
Cumulative Loss of
Wealth on Shares and Real Estate
~ ¥1500 trillion
Japan’s GDP Grew in spite of Massive Loss of Wealth and Private Sector De-leveraging
Macro AnalyticsApril 26th, 2012
=> Volatile YEN & CARRY
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
“JAPANIZATION” – Richard Koo
Macro AnalyticsApril 26th, 2012
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CHARLES HUGH SMITH
=> SHRINKING US CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE
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GENERATIONAL CYCLES
SOURCE:
dshort.com
Macro AnalyticsMay 1st, 2012
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GENERATIONAL CYCLES
Macro AnalyticsMay 1st, 2012
= >SHRINKING US CONSUMPTION GROWTH RATE
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Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
=> Weakness in INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY COMPLEX
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Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
ECONOMIC GROWTH – Fake Numbers!
Macro AnalyticsMay 8th, 2012
=> Shrinking REAL Economic Growth in Developed Countries
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Macro AnalyticsMay 8th, 2012
ECONOMIC GROWTH – Fake Numbers!
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Macro AnalyticsMarch 24th, 2012
EURO EXPERIMENT
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$48 TRILLION
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
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$27.3 T Increase in Replacement Contracts$3.9T Increase in Counterparty Risk
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
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Macro AnalyticsApril 17th, 2012
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
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MACRO ANALYTICS - I
APRIL Reports
GMTP – 189 Pages• Risk Levels & Assessment• Tipping Points• Macro Issues (US, EU, Asia)• Macro Market Drivers
MATA – 203 Pages• Technical Analysis• Fundamental Analysis• Risk Analysis
MMC – 31 Pages• Macro Message – Theme
SUPPORTING AUDIO GMTP – 30 Minutes / 35 SlidesMATA – 20 Minutes / 23 Slides
TRIGGER$ – 34 Pages
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Macro AnalyticsApril 17th, 2012
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Andrew Joseph Principal: GoldenPhi Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/Macro_Analytics
Gordon T Long GordonTLong.com
MACRO ANALYTICS - I
Andrew Joseph Principal: GoldenPhi Publishers: Triggers Media Publications Inc
Macro AnalyticsMay 15th, 2012
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