Maasai fertility: Kenya-Tanzania comparisons

Impacts of land-use policy on environment, wildlife, demography and socio-economic indicators in east African savannas: the Serengeti

Ecological Unit

University College London

Kenya Wildlife Service

University of Dar Es Salaam

Catholic University of Louvain

European Union [Grant No. IC18-CT976-0070]; Parkes Foundation

“Everyone “knows” the Maasai” (Spear, 1993:1)

Ethnographic writing/ Filming

Colonial records

Tourism

Photography

Conservation

Sum of demographic knowledge...

Author Method Information

Philip (1930) ? Average parity 3.4 births per woman

McKay (1950) ? Average parity 3.2 births per woman

Jacobs (1973) Guess Average parity 8 births per woman

Kramer (1980) ? Mean age at first marriage = 16.6yrs (f)

de Vries (1984) ? IMR “probably falls between 120 0/00 and the 1910 figure of 300 0/00”

Nangawe (1985) ? IMR 355 0/00

Megan (1994) ? IMR 186 0/00

Extent of “Maasailand”

Campbell (1979)

“population growth rate of the Maasai is 2.2%…this is an estimate made by […] who has spent many years studying

health-related issues in Maasailand”

Data collectionSingle Round Demographic Survey

Sampling frames Unavailable/ out of date

Sampling strategy Availability

Research instrument Pre-tested questionnaire

Enumeration unit Household

Enumerators Locally recruited Maasai

Sample size 14,928 individuals

1,565 households

2,828 women aged 15-49

Map of study sites

Issues of data collection

Enumerators

Reference to death

Age

Counting

Paternity

El Niño

No widowers

Birth history

Adult female mortality

Widowhood question:

“Is your first wife still alive?” XXX

Orphanhood question:

“Is your biological mother alive?”

Widowhood dataProportion of ever-married men reporting first wife still alive

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Pro

po

rtio

n

Maternal Orphanhood DataProportion of individuals reporting biological mother still alive, by age group and

country of respondent

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

Pro

porti

on

Maternal Mortality

Maternal death = misdemeanour

Based on reports of adult sisters

Lifetime risk = 1 in 40

1 in 4 of all reported adult sister deaths was due to maternal causes

Pregnancy behaviour

Adult male mortality

Widowhood question:

“Is your first husband still alive?”

Orphanhood question:

“Is your biological father alive?” XXX

Widowhood dataProportion of ever-married Maasai women reporting first spouse still alive,

by five year age group and country

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Pro

po

rtio

n

Male life expectancy at birth

Maasai National

Kenya 54.3 55.3

Tanzania 52.1 48.1

Early age mortality - expectations

Raise Lower

Nutritional stress Population density

Healthcare

Living environment

Early age mortality

1q0 4q1

Kenya 17 38

Tanzania 17 39

(per 1,000 live births)

Sexual initiation

M arriag eP o lyg yn ou s

E xtra -m arita l sex

P re -m arriag eIllic it sexu a l p a trn e rs

o f m arriedw om en

C ircu m c is ionTeen s - m id 2 0 s

P re -c ircu m c is ionTh eore tica lly ab s tin en t

M a le

M arriag eW ith in 1 year

P o lyg yn ou s m arriag esE xtra -m arita l sex

C ircu m c is ionB efo re p u b erty

P re -c ircu m c is ionS exu a l in it ia t ion

P artn e rs o f c ircu m c isedyou n g m en

F em ale

Children represent

For men

Power and influence (political and social)

“How can a man without children advise others as to how best to command others?”

“The status of an elder ultimately hinges on the fertility of his wives”

For women

Access to livestock

Security in widowhood

Fertility data

Collected from all ever-married women

“Brass” questions on ceb-cs

Births in the last 12 months

Data Quality: Cumulative asfr v. mean reported parity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

Age

Ch

ild

ren

K: Cum. Asfr K: Mean CEB TZ: Cum. asfr TZ: Mean CEB

Mean reported parity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-70

Five year age group

Me

an

re

po

rte

d

Kenya Tanzania

TFR (p/f ratio) by location

Tanzania (6.4)

Narok District (Kenya)

(9.2) Kajiado District (Kenya)

(7.7)

Kenya (8.2)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

TF

R

TFR in national contexts

Maasai National Rural

Kenya 8.2 5.2

Tanzania 6.4 6.3

Kenya-Tanzania fertility differential

nuptiality*

lactational amenorrhea

sterility*

abortion

contraception

fecundability

abstinence

Female age at first marriage

Kenya Tanzania

Median 17.0 17.0

SMAM 17.3 18.9

Current female marital status

Married

Widowed

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Divorced

Married

Widowed

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+

Kenya

Tanzania

Sterility

“It is said…that…the Masai females are becoming increasingly sterile” (1902)

“Sterility before marriage and after miscarriage has resulted in a greatly decreased birth rate” (1930)

“Healthworkers hold that venereal diseases are rampant in the Maasai communities” (1999)

Sterility

Primary sterility

Kenya 2.9%

Tanzania 1.8%

Secondary sterility

Up to age 44 higher levels in Tanzanian Maasai than Kenyan Maasai

Age specific secondary sterility rates, by country

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54

Age group

Se

co

nd

ary

ste

rili

ty r

ate Kenya

Tanzania

Kenya fertility

Kenya (8.2)

Narok (9.2)

Kajiado (7.7)

Olkirmatian (7.8) Shompole

(7.6)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

TF

R

Kenyan fertility differentials

Narok Kajiado

Land tenure Sub-division Communal Grp. R,

Outside interest(s) Tourism Extremely limited

Wheat farming

Land grabbing

Agri. Potential High and rising Very restricted

Circumcised sons Very advantageous Unchanged

Ecol. sustainability Falling Unchanged

Natural Increase (% p.a.)

Kenya Tanzania Both

National 2.89 3.22 -

Maasai (Census) 4.46 n/a -

Maasai (Survey) - - 3.9