M ODEL F OREST P OLICY P ROGRAM 1 Climate Resilient Communities Forest and Water Strategies Nancy...

MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM1

Climate Resilient CommunitiesForest and Water Strategies

Nancy Gilliam Executive Director

Module 1

Warning!

“The invoice for the future impact costs of climate change has been put on the table today (April 6, 2007) by the (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is not a bill that we would have to pay in full if the world decides now to make deep and decisive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.”

– Achim Steiner

Executive Director of the UN Environment Program (UNEP)


The Role of Local Governments

Local governments are leading the way in climate change solutions for themselves and for the world

Five take home messages

1


Urgency of Our Problem

With a 10-year window to reduce our CO2 levels…


Action to preserve the remaining areas of Natural Forests is urgent*

* Stern Review, p.537

2


Role of Forests to Climate and Water

Curbing deforestation is a highly cost effective way of reducing greenhouse gases and protecting precious water resources*



3


Solutions

Land use planning has a key role to play



4


Solutions

Sustainable policies have positive economic benefits



5


Five Take Home Messages

Local government taking the lead

10-year window

Curbing deforestation

Land use planning

Positive economic benefits


Climate Change Predictions

Module 2


Climate Predictions

Greenhouse effect


Of the five greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide is the most prevalent

As CO2 levels are going up, temperatures are going up….direct correlation

Future scenarios run from 520-960 ppm by 2100


Causes of Increased CO2

Utility emissions, industrial emissions, building emissions, vehicle emissions, and deforestation


Quality of Life Threatened RESULTS

Increased temperature

2° to 11° depending on the model


Quality of Life Threatened

More hotter days…

RESULTS

Mean temp (F) anomaly

30-day mean ending 1/5/07

…higher minimum temps

Fewer cold days…

…more frost-free days


Quality of Life ThreatenedRESULTS

* IPCC April 2007

More intense weather patterns

Rise in sea levels threatening coastal cities and wetlands

due to polar melting

Between 15% and close to 40% of plant and animal species will be “committed to extinction” by 2050*

Mega wildfires


Water Impacts…Too Much, Too Little, Not Safe

Too much water– More intense hurricanes, flooding

Safe drinking water limited– Septic systems overflow

Storm water systems overloaded – Locally insufficient infrastructure– Increased infrastructure costs

RESULTS

Photo credit: Bruce Molnia, U.S. Geological Survey


Water Impacts…Too Little Water, Drought

NPR April 16th, 2007: U.S. Army study reports water shortages caused by climate change will threaten national as well as global security

IPCC April 2007: Canada and the United States facing costly water shortages and loss of biodiversity unless adaptation mainstreamed into economic life

IPCC April 2007: …increase[ing] competition between industry, cities, hydropower operators, farmers and fishermen for freshwater supplies

Aquifer declines: Ground-water flows from the Edwards Aquifer in Texas for example could drop by up to 40% leading to economic losses for farmers*

RESULTS

* IPCC April 2007


Regional Predictions: Northwest U.S.

Decreased source water: Warming temperatures cause snow levels to drop, earlier Spring run-off and flooding/melting glaciers…by Summer, drought.

IPCC April 2007: Summer flows in some river systems such as the Colorado and Columbia basin are likely to decline sharply within four decades.

RESULTS


Mega Wildfires RESULTS


Forests, Carbon, and Water Essential Relationships

Module 3


Understanding How Forests Play a Vital Rolein Maintaining Livable Climate Conditions

Carbon…the essential

element of life


The Carbon Cycle


How Is Carbon Stored?

During photosynthesis, plants remove carbon from the atmosphere, converts it into sugars and oxygen is released


What Happens When Plants Die, Burn, or Decompose?

Also, when the soils are disturbed thru logging, or conversion to other uses, more CO2 is released

Carbon as CO2 is released back to the atmosphere


Making land use/deforestation a significant factor in the build up of CO2 levels and significant in the current solutions**

Carbon Build Up

* IPCC, 2001** Houghton, 2003, Salwasser, 2006

A petagram (Pg) is 1.1 billion tons of carbon

From 1850-2000, land use changes caused the release of 156 Pg of CO2, 90% from deforestation*

90%

Deforestation That amount is about one-half of the CO2 levels that burning fossil fuels/cement making has caused (275 Pg CO2)

36%

Other


Or Saying It Another Way…

Mismanagement of forests, particularly the burning of tropical forests, is 25% of the current CO2 levels


Therefore, Forests Are an Essential Part of the CO2 Mitigation Solution

6.6 Billion tons of CO2 are released each year from burning fossil fuels

1.65 Billion tons of CO2 would be offset in forests if we reduced our deforestation by 50%


Forests and Water Explained


The Fresh Water Source…Forests

* Source: Carr

Forested watersheds provide drinking water for 180 million people*

Source Brown

Mean annual water supply originating on Federal, State and private land, by land cover class

About two-thirds of U.S. fresh water originates on forested lands


Water Quantity

Forests capture and store 50% of our water, recharge ground water/aquifers, and slowly release it back to maintain stream flow between storms

Thus, reducing severity of droughts

And, providing a reliable flow for hydro power, agriculture, wildlife, and recreation


Water Quality

Forests control the flow of water

Forests reduce the amount of water storm water systems must contain, reducing taxpayer costs for new systems

Forested riparian zones filter pollutants/reduce sediment and nutrient loads

* Source: Carr

In arid and semi-arid regions such as much of the Western United States, wetlands and riparian areas play an

especially critical role*


Water Quality


Transpiration

Source: OR Forest Resources Institute, 2006 Photo: Mark Meyer

The massive amounts of water transpired by forests ultimately change the global distribution of energy in the atmosphere, affecting rainfall patterns, cloudiness, and storms


Other Benefits of Forests

1. Shade & cooling (for urban, aquatics, soils)

2. Habitat for fish, wildlife, birds, & domestic animals

3. Aesthetic values

4. Commercial harvests

5. Recreation & hunting opportunities


Further Threats to Forests

Module 4


Forest Management Policies

Only 10 States in the U.S. have comprehensive forest practice laws

Voluntary Best Management Practices are often not sufficient water protection

Only a handful of forest landowners—a mere 7% of those owning parcels between 10 and 5,000 acres in the lower 48—currently have a written management plan. Fewer than half of private forest landowners seek professional assistance


DevelopmentAcres of non-Federal forest land converted to developed land

Source: NRCS, 2000

Recent U.S. Forest Service estimates are that some 15-20 Million acres

of U.S. forest land could be converted to urban and developed uses by 2050

In the U.S., for example, roughly 1.5 Million acres of forests are currently lost to

development and conversion each year.

Figured conservatively, this forest loss results in the release of 275 million metric tons of CO2 into the atmosphere—a release equivalent to the emissions output by 53 million vehicles over a one-year period.

– Pacific Forest Trust, 2007


Epidemic Insect Infestation With Rising Temperatures

Warmer temperatures allow insect populations to increase. Drought stricken trees are easy targets.

* Source: IPCC 2007

North American producers of wood and timber could suffer losses of

between $1 Billion and $2 Billion a year during the 21st century if

climate change also sparks changes in diseases, insect

attacks…and fires*


More Frequent, More Severe, and Larger Fires


Solutions for Resilient Communities

Module 5

MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM43Source: R. Scocolow, R. Hotinski, J.B. Greenblatt, and S. Pacala

Solutions for Resilient Communities

Stabilization wedges

Note: The stabilization triangle can be divided into seven equal “wedges” that represent activities capable of reducing one billion tons of carbon per year by 2054.

Year2004 2054

Billions of tons of carbon emitted per year

14

7


Climate Change Solutions

In the U.S., according to the Union of Concerned Scientists,

“forests and land-use measures have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by the equivalent of 10-20% of projected fossil fuel emissions through 2050.”

Forests


Stern Review

Prevent deforestation

Source: Reproduced from Baumert et al (2005)Use change within the range equivalent to 2.2 to 9.9 GtCO2, with a central estimate of 6.2 GtCO2. A fuller discussion setting out the range of estimates can be found in Baumert KA et al. (2005). CAIT, WRI, 2000 figures used.

Sources of emissions from global land use change 2000


Climate Action Plan

Commit to Climate Action Plan

Form Land Use Subcommittee

Assess forest ownership patterns, forest condition, current policies

Analyze the root causes/systems influencing your forest/water problems

Pinpoint strategies; include adaptation and mitigation strategies

Implement and evaluate

Forests


Pew Center on Global Climate Change

Increase Stock Conservation of Stock

Reforestation Low impact harvesting

Extend rotation from 30-70 years

Prevent deforestation/land use change

Afforestation Thin for fire suppression

POLICY


Low Impact Harvesting

Riparian buffers

Pre-notification of logging

Timber harvest plans

Road construction standards

Cumulative impacts data

Licensing of foresters

State Laws: Model Forest Policy Tool Kit

POLICY


New Attitude

Urbanization can also have social implications with respect to water protection and conservation. People moving into newly urbanized areas often bring different attitudes and a lack of experience with natural resources and rural social values.


Preventing Deforestation Caused by Developments

County: York County, Virginia

State: Maryland’s Forest Conservation Act

POLICY


Maryland Forest Conservation Act

100-year floodplains

Intermittent and perennial streams and their buffers

Steep slopes: Greater than 25% grade

Critical habitats for endangered species

Non-tidal wetlands

Contiguous forest that connects the largest undeveloped forests adjacent to the site


Carbon Sequestration Strategies

Carbon Registry

Carbon Credits

Example

California Climate Action Registry (SB812); Georgia new plan underway

New Mexico, Boulder

Van Eck Forest Foundation

POLICY


Rising Prices for Carbon

Credit M. Smith

$0.83$1.14

$4.70

$5.92

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

NO HWP W/ HWP Future NOHWP

FutureW/ HWP

CCX annual net revenue per forest acre

Future values use $4.35 per MtCO2e


Carbon Credit Example: van Eck Forest

Conservation easement preventing conversion

Sustainable practices

Income from carbon credits

POLICY

California’s first climate-protecting forest project to prevent 500,000 tons of C02 emissions (July 2006)


Educational ToolsSTRATEGIES

Tools for landowners

Landowner’s Guide to Sustainable Forestry: Maximizing Profits While Protecting Water Quality (DVD)

Landowner’s Handbook: Managing Your Woodlands


Educational Tools

Guide to evaluating your existing local forest watershed policy

Case studies of well managed forested watersheds

Model contracts for selling your timber

STRATEGIES


Case Study

Photos courtesy of Richard Weisser and SmokyPhotos.com

EDUCATION

The State of Chesapeake Forestsby USFS and The Conservation Fund

MODEL FOREST POLICY PROGRAM59Source: The State of Chesapeake Forests, Ch. 7, pg 89.

Vulnerability of forests important to water quality to the Chesapeake Bay

31%


Summary

Climate change is Real

Local communities are In Action

Forests are Essential to water and to climate

Solutions exist

INSPIRING THE WILL!


Thank you

The Model Forest Policy Programwww.mfpp.org(509) 432-8679

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