M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined...
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Transcript of M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined...
![Page 1: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer
Visualizing Impacts of Combined EventsA study in Southeast Florida
![Page 2: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Motivation
• Region of Focus: Southeast Florida ( Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach Counties)
• Why? Florida is considered one of the most vulnerable coastal areas to climate change, especially sea level rise. BUT, there is currently insufficient joint stakeholder action on adaptation.
![Page 3: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Objective and Goal
• Objective: – Identify together with multi-jurisdictional stakeholders of
Southeast Florida combined impacts of two or more climate and non-climate hazards happening simultaneously or in short succession.
– Facilitate greater regional collaboration across jurisdictional boundaries to increase stakeholders’ adaptive capacity.
• Goal: – Create an easy-to-use framework to identify joint impacts
of hazards and highlight current strengths and weaknesses of multiple stakeholders relating to adaptation.
![Page 4: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
How do we do this?
• We will set up a network graph to identify the joint relationship between both climate and non- climate hazards and their resultant impacts.
• We will use different scenarios of probabilities • We can use these different levels of probabilities to
illustrate and identify different impact scenarios• Using conditional probabilities, we can create a
Bayesian network. – We can use this to determine the most important
hazards, and sensitivities to different hazards.
![Page 5: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Who will be involved?• City, County, and Tribal governments• State agencies
– DOT, DEP, SFWMD, FDEM• Federal agencies
– FEMA, National Parks, etc.• Military
– Reserves, Coast Guard, 3 main branches• Industry
– Energy, Transportation, Telecommunications• Academics• NGOs
– Everglades Law Center, Sierra Club, AARP, Vice Squad
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More on the Network
• Stakeholders will get together with modelers, statisticians, climate scientists and social scientist to determine the most relevant hazards and impacts (starting from a high level view for a particular sector), and considering what data is available.
• Network allows division of labor by subdividing the nodes into areas such as social, physical or structural hazards/ impacts.
![Page 7: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Example
HURRICANE TIDAL FLOODING
SEVERE PROPERTY DAMAGE
![Page 8: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Example with joint effect
HURRICANE TIDAL FLOODING
SEVERE PROPERTY DAMAGE
![Page 9: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
A more complicated example
HURRICANE TIDAL FLOODING
SEVERE PROPERTY DAMAGE
SEA LEVEL RISE
ROAD DAMAGE
![Page 10: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Things to consider…• One of the hardest tasks will be to sit down with stakeholders,
decision and policy makers, modelers, and mathematicians to come up with a practical event-impact network– Most likely will be an iterative process that can be sub-divided into
smaller groups. – We can create different levels of networks that emphasize
different scales of events. • The next hardest part will be to conceptualize different scenarios of
potential probabilities of hazards and their joint impact. – We may not have enough information to make a qualified guess
(missing data)– Model might be too simple, or, on the opposite spectrum, the
model can quickly become too complex.
![Page 11: M. Buchanan, K. Chowdhary, H. Li, S. Lorenz, F. Menendez, G. Treuer Visualizing Impacts of Combined Events A study in Southeast Florida.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070308/551bec4e550346c3588b635c/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)