Luton Local Plan Matter 5 Appendix 1 ORS Report Luton HMA plan · Luton Local Plan Matter 5...

Luton Local Plan Matter 5

Appendix 1

ORS Report Luton HMA plan

Figure 38: Functional Housing Market Areas with Local Authority Boundaries


Appendix 2

AWEL detailed HMA boundary around Leighton Linslade

ORS Milton Keynes Housing Market Area

ORSLuton

Housing Market

Area

Leighton Linslade

ORSAylesburyHousing Market Area

Checkley Wood Garden Village

Heath and Reach

A5

A505

Arnold White Estates Ltd

Checkley Wood Garden VillageWoburn Lakes

0 1000500

b u i l t f o r mr e s o u r c e

01865 261456, Oxford Centre for Innovation, New Road, Oxford OX1 1BYi n f o @ b u i l t f o r m re s o u rc e . c o m w w w . b u i l t f o r m re s o u rc e . c o m

Housing Market Areas

1-22_020.A | 23-03-2016 | NTS

Housing Market Area boundaries


Appendix 3

HMA Study by GL Hearn

Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood HMA Report Arnold White Estates Ltd

February 2016

Prepared by

GL Hearn

280 High Holborn

London WC1V 7EE

T +44 (0)20 7851 4900 glhearn.com

Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood HMA Report, February 2016

GL Hearn Page 2 of 14

C:\Users\pcm\Desktop\Checkley Wood Report.docx

Contents

Section Page

1 INTRODUCTION 4

2 CRITIQUE OF ORS HMA WORK 5

3 REVIEW OF LOCAL DYNAMICS 11

List of Figures

FIGURE 1: EAST OF ENGLAND HOUSING INVESTEMENT SUB REGIONS 6

FIGURE 2: LEIGHTON LINSLADE AND CHECKLEY WOOD MSOAS 11

List of Tables

TABLE 1: RESIDENCY OF LEIGHTON LINSLADE WORKFORCE 12

TABLE 2: WORKPLACE LOCATION OF LEIGHTON LINSLADE RESIDENTS 12

TABLE 3: RESIDENCY OF CHECKLEY WOOD MSOA WORKFORCE 13

TABLE 4: WORKPLACE LOCATION OF CHECKLEY WOOD RESIDENTS 14




Quality Standards Control

The signatories below verify that this document has been prepared in accordance with our quality control

requirements. These procedures do not affect the content and views expressed by the originator.

This document must only be treated as a draft unless it is has been signed by the Originators and approved

by a Business or Associate Director.

DATE ORIGINATORS APPROVED

February 2016 Paul McColgan Nick Ireland

Associate Director Director

Limitations

This document has been prepared for the stated objective and should not be used for any other purpose

without the prior written authority of GL Hearn; we accept no responsibility or liability for the consequences of

this document being used for a purpose other than for which it was commissioned.




1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 GL Hearn have been instructed by Gardner Planning to undertake a critical review of the “Housing

Market Areas in Bedfordshire and surrounding areas” report produced by ORS (December 2016).

ORS was commissioned by a partnership of seven councils (Central Bedfordshire Council, Bedford

Borough Council, Luton Borough Council, Milton Keynes Council, North Hertfordshire District

Council, Stevenage Borough Council and Aylesbury Vale District Council) to undertake this work.

1.2 Paragraph 10 of the Planning Practice Guidance relating to economic and housing development

need sets out that:

“A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and

preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between places

where people live and work. It might be the case the housing market areas overlap. The

extent of the housing market areas identified will vary, and many will in practice cut across

various local planning authority administrative boundaries. Local planning authorities should

work with all the other constituent authorities under the duty to cooperate.”

1.3 Planning Practice Guidance identifies three main factors in defining Housing Market Areas. These

are:

• House price and rates of change in house prices

• Commuting Patterns

• Migration Patterns

1.4 In this report we review the ORS Report on housing market geographies, and undertake selected

further finer grain analysis to consider spatial relationships between Leighton Linslade and other

areas, including analysis of migration and commuting flow data to surrounding major settlements –

Luton, Milton Keynes, Aylesbury - and consideration of journey times to get to these locations. In

doing so we consider planned investment in local transport infrastructure and the potential impacts

of this.




2 CRITIQUE OF ORS HMA WORK

Review of Existing Definitions

2.1 The analysis begins with a review of existing research on housing market geographies.

2.2 National research undertaken for CLG by a consortium of academics (the CURDS Study) which is

referred to in the Planning Advisory Service’s Objectively Assessed Need and Housing Targets

report identifies the Leighton Linslade area as falling within a Milton Keynes Framework Housing

Market Area (based on 2001 commuting data). The more localised definitions also place the

Leighton Linslade area in a Milton Keynes Local HMA (based on more localised migration self-

containment).

2.3 A range of regional and local studies are also examined. DTZ research which defined housing

market areas in South East England is somewhat curious given that all of Bedfordshire falls within

the East of England Region. While no direct equivalent of the DTZ work (Sub Regional Housing

Markets in the South East (2004)) exists for the East of England there are a number of existing sub

regional definitions which merit inclusion.

2.4 The Regional Housing Strategy for the East of England: 2005-2010 published by the East of

England Regional Assembly in 2005 identified a number of housing investment sub-areas including

one which covered all of Bedfordshire including Leighton Linslade and Luton. This is shown in

Figure 1 Overleaf.

2.5 A number of further studies are derived from these definitions including the London Commuter Belt

(LCB) East SHMA and West SHMA (ORS & Savills; 2008) which is reviewed in the ORS work.

Although the LCB study is not focussed on Bedfordshire, it did contain HMA boundaries within

Central Bedfordshire which includes the Leighton Linslade within a Milton Keynes HMA.




Figure 1: East of England Housing Investement Sub Regions

Source: East of England Regional Assembly (2005).

2.6 A number of other local studies have been reviewed including Bedfordshire and Luton and the

Milton Keynes SHMAs. Again these studies point to a Milton Keynes HMA which extends to

Leighton Linslade.

2.7 It is evident that a number of previous studies have considered housing market geographies, largely

finding that Leighton Linslade falls within a common HMA to Milton Keynes. However much of this

previous evidence is based on historical data and patterns – it is appropriate to test further whether

these geographies remain appropriate, taking account of more recent evidence and planned

investment.




Analysis of Commuting Patterns

2.8 The ORS report correctly identifies commuting patterns as being one of the key factors in defining

HMA. They use the ONS 2011 Travel to Work Areas (TTWA) (published mid 2015) as the starting

point for this analysis. Again this defines the Leighton Linslade Area as falling within a Milton

Keynes TTWA.

2.9 ORS then undertake their own analysis seeking to effectively identify Travel to Work Areas within a

much wider area than Bedfordshire. Their approach uses a seven step “seed approach” whereby

each Middle Super Output Area (MSOA) is aligned to an employment centre or “seed” based on

their strongest relationship; with seeds being combined until thresholds of self-containment are

achieved.

2.10 Leighton Buzzard is initial identified as an employment centre (as are all urban areas), but this does

not extend to the Checkley Wood Area. The analysis seeks to merge employment centres and their

catchments (‘combing seeds’) until a suitable self-containment threshold is reached. The threshold

is based on the ONS target 75.0% self-containment rate for areas with a working population smaller

the 25,000 and 66.7% for areas over 25,000 workers. The ORS approach progressively defines

larger geographies through incremental increases to the self-containment rate.

2.11 With a 60%, 70% and 72% self-containment rate, ORS’ analysis identifies Leighton Linslade and

the Checkley Wood area as within a Luton focused Commuting Zone. This highlights that there is a

economic/ commuting inter-relationship between Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood with Luton.

However consultation on and a review of these initial definitions resulted in the removal on the

Leighton Buzzard employment centre ‘seed’ (amongst others) as it was less than 20% in workforce

size of the largest ‘seed’. This approach seems somewhat arbitrary – with the evidence overall

really pointing to stronger commuting flows to Luton.

2.12 This process which ORS undertook (following consultation) resulted in the Leighton Linslade area

being re-designated on a MSOA basis rather than as a whole (as it is effectively ‘de-designated as

an employment centre in its own right). In the consequent analysis, the Leighton Linslade area falls

within the Milton Keynes Commuting Zone, although the Checkley Wood area falls within the Luton

Commuting Zone (at 72% self-containment rate).

2.13 The ORS work recognises that the use of MSOA in less populated areas (including Checkley

Wood) results in TTWA boundaries as being “relatively imprecise”. As such a simplified (although

finer grain) analysis is then run using Census Output Areas (OA). This sought to identify firstly

areas where 50% of residents commuting to the seed clusters previously identified and secondly

where a simple majority of residents worked.




2.14 The first of these definitions did not identify the majority of Leighton Linslade as commuting to any

specific employment centre/seed – effectively showing that there is not a strong commuting flow to

either Luton or Milton Keynes (based on over 50% commuting to either). This strongly points to the

existence of a diverse set of commuting relationships – with commuting in a number of directions to

different employment centres, as opposed to a dominant flow.

2.15 When ORS seek to identify where a simple majority of residents go, the Leighton Linslade area is

split between the Luton TTWA area and the Milton Keynes TTWA. When commuting flows to

London are introduced, there are parts of the area for which London is the main location of

employment.

2.16 The report section on commuting draws these various levels of analysis together, and concludes

that the Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood area falls within the Milton Keynes area - despite

none of the previous steps recognising this to conclusively be the case. The report does recognise

that there are some areas of overlap but “to avoid double counting” each area is placed in a single

HMA.

2.17 No real data or methodology is given as to how the analysis is drawn together it is therefore not

possible to analyses this step in any great detail.

Analysis of Migration Flows

2.18 The ORS report sets out migration patterns to and from the previously identified commuting zones.

It defines the strongest migration links to those key seeds on which the commuting zones have

been defined. This approach effectively places considerable weight on one level of analysis – of

2011 Commuting Patterns – which are identified in the PPG as a ‘contextual indicator.’

2.19 The analysis of migration patterns undertaken by ORS demonstrates that the Leighton Linslade and

Checkley Wood MSOAs have a stronger migratory links with Luton. Leighton Linslade and

Checkley Wood are defined within the Luton Migration Zone (Figure 32).

2.20 Analysis of self-containment indicates a relatively high level of self-containment rate in the Luton

Migration Zone. Planning Practice Guidance sets out a typical migration self-containment threshold

of 70% (when long distance moves are excluded), and emphasises the use of migration evidence

over commuting (which is a contextual indicator). Self-containment within the Luton Migration Zone,

including Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood, as shown by ORS Figure 34, is 74% (measured

on the supply-side) and 73% (measured on the demand side) excluding long-distance moves of

over 50 miles. In both cases this exceeds the 70% migration threshold set out in the PPG. Self-

containment rises further is moves over 20 miles are excluded.




2.21 This particular analysis give strong support for the Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood area as

falling within the Luton Housing Market area. Coupled with the commuting zone analysis which is

inconclusive, the ORS Report indicates that (at least in part) two of the three key factors in

identifying HMAs point towards Checkley Wood falling within a Luton-focused HMA.

Analysis of House Prices

2.22 The ORS analysis focuses on mix adjusted house prices and also ten year change in house prices

over an undefined ten year period, with further analysis of Broad Rental Market Area. A potential

criticism of the ORS approach would be their focus on average rather than median prices,

particularly given that the analysis is at MSOA level there is likely to be very few transactions. This

could therefore lead to a small number of very high or very low value transactions skewing the

average price used in the analysis.

2.23 On house prices, the ORS report concludes that “neither the geographic spread of areas with

higher and lower house prices nor the geographic spread of average house price changes would

appear to provide a clear basis on which to define housing market areas”.

2.24 The house price analysis could be interpreted a different way – Figure 36 which analyses house

prices suggests a broad similarity between prices between what they define as Luton, Milton

Keynes and Bedford HMAs. A market-based definition could well point to the three falling within a

common (larger) housing market area. The potential for this is not really considered within the

report.

2.25 Looking south, house prices increase into South West Hertfordshire – suggesting a market based

differential with this area; whilst prices into Northamptonshire start to fall, pointing to similar

conclusions.

2.26 This conclusion would be supported by some of ORS’ analysis. Their report considers house price

dynamics overlaid onto Broad Rental Market Area (BRMA) boundaries which are produced by the

VOA. Leighton Linslade falls within a Milton Keynes BRMA, but is close to the boundaries of this.

The ORS suggests that the “Bedford BRMA, Luton BRMA and Milton Keynes BRMA generally

cover areas with lower house prices, with some more expensive areas particularly in rural locations.”

It is clear that there are therefore similarities/ overlaps across the two defined HMAs of Luton and

Milton Keynes.




Summary

2.27 In summary the ORS report provides a definition of Housing Market Area boundaries based in

analysis of house price, migration and commuting patterns. The conclusion that ORS draw “are

based on majority agreement between these three geographies.” In reality, their conclusions are

heavily driven by the commuting analysis.

2.28 ORS conclusions set out that “Leighton Buzzard is in the Luton migration zone but in the Milton

Keynes commuting zone and Milton Keynes BRMA; so the area is allocated to the Milton Keynes

functional HMA”. As we would see it the BRMA is not based on rigorous analysis or the factors

which are identified in the PPG. The justification that the BRMA geographies start to draw out

distinctions in house prices and are therefore appropriate for defining HMA boundaries is weak and

could just as easily be applied to the Local Authority boundaries had they been overlaid.

2.29 The commuting analysis is essentially inconclusive – parts of the analysis (based on finer grain

interrogation of patterns) show Leighton Linslade as within a Luton-focused Commuting Zone (and

by inference HMA); whilst other methodologies show it relating more strongly to Milton Keynes.

Evidently commuting patterns are diverse – and at the very least it should be recognised as falling

within an area of overlap, with multiple influences.

2.30 The migration analysis – of which greater weight is placed in the PPG – shows Leighton Linslade a

falling within a Luton-focused HMA.

2.31 House price analysis does not support the conclusions one way or another – indeed it shows that a

market based definition would suggest a wider HMA which included both Milton Keynes and Luton.




3 REVIEW OF LOCAL DYNAMICS

3.1 In this section we move on to provide a finer grain consideration of local dynamics, particularly in

regard to commuting patterns, in the Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood Areas.

3.2 As shown in Figure 2 below, the MSOA which the Checkley Wood site falls within is substantial and

extends eastward all the way to the M1 and to the edge of Luton/ Dunstable.

Figure 2: Leighton Linslade and Checkley Wood MSOAs

Source: GL Hearn, 2016

3.3 We have reviewed the commuting patterns of each of these areas. This draws on the same

dataset as that used in the ORS report – 2011 Census data. We have sought to review both in and

out commuting from these areas.

Commuting Dynamics of Leighton Linslade

3.4 As shown in Table 1 below, there are approximately 12,500 people working in the Leighton Linslade

area. The majority of Leighton Linslade workers come from the Central Bedfordshire area (65%). A

similar number also come from Luton, Aylesbury Vale and Milton Keynes (7-8% from each).




3.5 Although the employment centre of Leighton Buzzard was dismissed within the ORS analysis, it is

clear that it is an important employment location not just for local residents but also for people from

further afield.

Table 1: Residency of Leighton Linslade Workforce

Location of Residence Workforce %

Central Bedfordshire 8,211 65.3%

Milton Keynes 1,027 8.2%

Luton 918 7.3%

Aylesbury Vale 900 7.2%

Dacorum 230 1.8%

Bedford 161 1.3%

Rest 1,122 8.9%

Total 12,569 100.0%

Source: ONS, Census 2011

3.6 In analysing the location of work for those living in Leighton Linslade, it is apparent that Milton

Keynes is a stronger employment destination than Luton – but both are significant, with 8% of the

residents in work commuting to Luton and 16% to Milton Keynes. However the flows to each are

smaller than numbers working locally or elsewhere in Central Bedfordshire (40%).

Table 2: Workplace Location of Leighton Linslade Residents

Location of Workplace Residents %

Central Bedfordshire 8,096 40.1%

Milton Keynes 3,285 16.3%

Luton 1,548 7.7%

Aylesbury Vale 1,397 6.9%

Dacorum 1,085 5.4%

Westminster 495 2.5%

Bedford 333 1.7%

St Albans 314 1.6%

Camden 309 1.5%

Watford 239 1.2%

City of London 239 1.2%

Rest 2,826 14.0%

Total 20,166 100.0%


3.7 It is perhaps not surprising that almost 16% of Leighton Linslade employees are employed in Milton

Keynes compared to only 7.7% in Luton – this is simply a reflection of the relative size of these

employment centres. Comparatively Milton Keynes is a far larger employment centre. 75,500

people work in Luton compared to 122,500 in Milton Keynes.




3.8 Broadly 2.7% of Milton Keynes’ workforce is drawn from people living in Leighton Linslade; whilst

for Luton the figure is 2.1%. The figures are of a similar order of magnitude – suggesting a broadly

similar strength of relationship to each.

3.9 The commuting flows may reflect current rail and road access between Milton Keynes and Leighton

Linslade whereas Luton is only linked to Leighton Linslade by road which at present is heavily

congested at peak times through Dunstable.

3.10 However the proposed A5-M1 Link Road which consists of a new all-purpose dual two-lane

carriageway running east from the A5 (close to its junction with the A505 Leighton Buzzard Bypass)

to join the M1 at a new Junction 11A should significantly improve accessibility to Luton. This

development is intended to relieve Dunstable of this significant congestion and would shorten

journey times to Luton.

3.11 This new link road will also make Luton a more attractive location for employment and, as such, can

be expected to alter the commuting dynamics - strengthening the links between the two locations

and giving further justification for Leighton Linslade being included in the Luton HMA.

3.12 With additional housing development planned to the East of Leighton Linslade coupled with the new

road infrastructure the links with Luton are almost certainly be strengthened further still.

Commuting Dynamics of Checkley Wood (MSOA)

3.13 A distinctly different picture appears when we review the single MSOA which Checkley Wood falls

within (Central Bedfordshire 019). The MSOA also takes in the villages of Eggington, Stanbridge,

Hockington and Chalton. Clearly this spans a wide area which abuts both Luton and Leighton

Linslade.

3.14 While the overall numbers are obviously smaller (reflecting the population base), the links to Luton

are clearly stronger than those with Milton Keynes. In terms of the local workforce, almost twice as

many people commute in from Luton than from Milton Keynes, although Central Bedfordshire is still

the main location of residence.

Table 3: Residency of Checkley Wood MSOA Workforce

Location of Residence Workforce %

Central Bedfordshire 1355 57%

Luton 421 18%

Milton Keynes 149 6%

Aylesbury Vale 84 4%

Rest 355 15%

Total 2364 100%





3.15 Although not as stark a difference, the location of work for Checkley Wood residents also shows a

higher percentage commuting to Luton than Milton Keynes. Again Central Bedfordshire is still the

main location of employment for residents of this area. Overall and in proportion to the number of

jobs in the two main employment centres, there is a stronger relationship with Luton. Improvements

to the local road network is also likely to increase commuting to Luton.

Table 4: Workplace Location of Checkley Wood Residents

Location of Workplace Residents %

Central Bedfordshire 1376 37.9%

Luton 645 17.8%

Milton Keynes 458 12.6%

Dacorum 149 4.1%

Aylesbury Vale 135 3.7%

Bedford 101 2.8%

Rest 769 21.2%

Total 3633 100.0%

Source: ONS, Census 2011 T

3.16 In summary, the localised dynamics suggest that the Checkley Wood area is far more closely linked

to Luton than it is to Milton Keynes. This is also likely to be strengthened through improvements to

the Strategic Road Network.

3.17 Coupled with the questions we have raised in relation to commuting and house price analysis

undertaken by ORS, there is clear justification for considering that at the very least the Leighton

Linslade area is in an area of overlap between the Luton and Milton Keynes HMA. The strength of

relationship between the Checkley Wood and Luton, suggests that this area clearly falls within the

Luton HMA. For Leighton Linslade, it is clear that there is a strong functional link – in regard to

commuting and migration – with Luton, and this can be expected to be strengthened and grow with

delivery of the A5-M1 Link Road.


Appendix 4

Checkley Wood Plans

0005 6400

0177

0006

5430

4600 6600

0900

1875

2272

1868

5044

0848

58316131

57000006

5319

5718

5410

00065700

6483

5782

5578

7268

7469

5262

Def

SD

Def

SD

EER

& Co

Con

st B

dy

Def

1.22m RH

Co Const, CP and ED Bdy

Def

Und

Def

1.22m RH

1.22m RH

SD

Def

EER

& Co

Con

st B

dy

Co Const, CP & ED Bdy

Def

1.22m RH

Co Const, CP and ED Bdy

Def

Und

Def

Def

Def

Drain

Drain

Pond

Dra

in

Well

Well

Issues

Drain

Sinks

Issues

Issues

Sinks

Pond

Drain

Pond

Pond

Dra

in

Well

Well

Issues

Issues

Drain

Sinks

Issues

Issues

Sinks

Pond

Drain

A 418

A 5

A 418

A 5

WO

BURN

ROA

D

A 41

8

A 5

A 5

A 418

A 5

WO

BURN

ROA

D

A 41

8

SHEEPLAN

EA 5

7 Sandhouse Cottages

CottageThe

Trell

is Cotta

ge

Sandhouse

Cotta

ge

Sandhouse

Cottage

Pump House

Pump House

Hounds(PH)

15

Chapel CottageThe Old

Works

2119

The

The Fox and

Rammamere Farm

CottageThe

Trell

is Cotta

ge

Sandhouse

Cotta

ge

Sandhouse

Cottage

Pump House

Pump House

Hounds(PH)

15

17

Chapel CottageThe Old

Works

2119

The

The Fox and

7 Sandhouse Cottages

Arnold White Estates Ltd

Checkley Wood Garden VillageConcept Master Plan

1-22_015G | 30-11-2015 | NTS

0 400

b u i l t f o r mr e s o u r c e

01865 261456, Oxford Centre for Innovation, New Road, Oxford OX1 1BYi n f o @ b u i l t f o r m re s o u rc e . c o m w w w . b u i l t f o r m re s o u rc e . c o m

E a s t e r n Wa y

E a s t e r n W a y

A5

A5

A5

Mi l

e T

ree

Ro

ad

Wo

bu

rn

R

oa

d

To Leighton Linslade

To Luton/Dunstable

To Milton Keynes

S h e n l e y H i l l R o a d

To WoburnA5

To Eastern Link Road

Street and boundary planting

Employment

Lower school

Middle/upper school

Residential

Village centre

Public open space/recreation

Arable and pasture

New woodland

Existing woodland

Site boundary

Allotment gardens

Consented / proposed turbine

Holiday and leisure

Heath and Reach Relief Road/bypass

Narrow Gauge Railway

Public footpath

Permissive path

New footpath

Bridleway

Luton Local Plan Matter 5 Appendix 1 ORS Report Luton HMA plan · Luton Local Plan Matter 5...

Documents

Transcript of Luton Local Plan Matter 5 Appendix 1 ORS Report Luton HMA plan · Luton Local Plan Matter 5...