Luedeling long term trials for climate change research
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Long-term trials for climate change research and adaptation Eike Luedeling December 2011
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Transcript of Luedeling long term trials for climate change research
Long-term trials for climate change research and adaptation
Eike Luedeling
December 2011
Climate change
Rising temperatures
Potential changes in rainfallHigher variability and more extreme events
Not all of these everywhere, but some of these somewhere…
Climate change
Land use system
Climate change
Impacts
Adaptation
Mitigation
Resilience
Climate change
Land use system
Climate change
Impacts
Adaptation
Mitigation
Resilience
Long-term trials are needed for quantifying impacts and mitigation potentials and for finding robust adaptation strategies
Impacts of climate change
Long-term trials, combined with reliable weather records are essential for understanding system
response to weather
This understanding allows projecting climate change impacts
For analyzing climate change impacts, all long-term trials should include weather monitoring
Impacts of climate change
Projecting climate change impacts requires thorough understanding of systems and robust models
Models must be calibrated over wide range of climatic conditions
Long-term trials allow using long-term weather for model building, understanding processes well enough
for reliable projections
Impacts of climate change
Long-term trials allow using advanced statistical tools for quantifying system responses
E.g. PLS regression
Luedeling and Gassner, revision under review. Agricultural and Forest
Meteorology.
No data = no analysis
Carbon sequestration
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
zeC
Seq.
pot
entia
l?
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
ze
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
ze
C st
ocks
Mitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq.
t1 t2 t3
Carbon sequestration
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
ze
C Se
q. p
oten
tial?
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
ze
Agro
fore
stry
Mai
ze
C st
ocks
Mitigate climate change and pay farmers for C seq.
C Se
q. p
oten
tial?
Lower sequestration; less cash for farmersLong-term trials needed to expose real potential
t1 t2 t3
Carbon sequestration
One-off site comparisons may overestimate C storage potential (hazard for C-selling farmers/projects)
Only long-term trials can show real potential for carbon sequestration
Provide information on long-term fate of sequestered carbon, in soil and biomass
Does sequestered carbon survive extreme events?
Data from long-term trials needed for modeling C sequestration potential ex ante
Variability and extreme events
Impacts of extreme events (on non-obvious system characteristics) can only be evaluated reliably, where
long-term trials exist
Important as baseline, and for ‘putting things in context’ (are extreme events really so extreme?)
Long-term monitoring can trace system performance through variability cycles and extreme events, but
they must be there before events happen
Adaptation and resilience
Inclusion of wide range of crops / land use options allows screening for resilience / risks / adaptive
potential
Long-term trials allow evaluation for realistic variability scenarios
One-off trials only expose adaptation to one particular manifestation of weather
Develop models based on multi-year performance that allow testing adaptation options with models
Adaptation and resilience
Luedeling 2011. ‘Adaptation to Climate Change and Insurance’ project. Report to GIZ.
Crop yield (% of max)
Prob
abili
ty (%
)
Climate model
GHG emissions
Time horizon
Crop-risk profile
Trial sites as learning locations
Strategic placement of long-term trial sites
Avoid ‘disappearing climates’
Maximize transferability of results to other sites, now and in the future
Climate analogue analysis can help determine most suitable locations
Climate analogue analysis
Future projected climatePresent climate
Mean of monthlytemperatures (°C)
Similar?
Similar?
Climate similarity map
Euclidean distance between projected climate at target site and current climate in the region
Target site
Climate analogue location
Kenya
Somalia
D.R.C.
C.A.R. South Sudan Ethiopia
Tanzania
Congo
Angola
Uganda
Rw.
Bu.
Climate analogue analysis
Climate similarity map
Long-term trials at analogue site can provide information on potential of land use options for adaptation to one particular climate scenario
Target site
Climate analogue location
Kenya
Somalia
D.R.C.
C.A.R. South Sudan Ethiopia
Tanzania
Congo
Angola
Uganda
Rw.
Bu.
Climate analogue analysis
Climate analogue map for multiple climate scenariosClimate projection
D.R.C.
Kenya
Uganda
Tanzania
C.A.R. South Sudan Ethiopia
Congo
Rw.
Bu.
Climate analogue analysis
Long-term trials at multiple analogue locations allow thorough testing of crops for climate change adaptation
Such trials allow making robust, climate-change proof empirical models.
Conclusions
Long-term trials are needed for quantitatively informing impact projections, for assessing mitigation
potentials and for identifying robust adaptation options.
Trial sites should be strategically placed to provide useful information for as many locations as possible,
considering projected climate change.
