LTLS – AtmosphereReconstructing past N (and S) deposition in the UK & future projections

Tomlinson S.J.1, Carnell E.J.1, Dore A.J.1, Misselbrook T.H.2*,

Sutton M.A.1 and Dragosits U.1

1 NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB2 Rothamsted Research, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon EX20 2SB (*in-kind contribution)

ud@ceh.ac.uk

Introduction – Atmospheric component

Natural terrestrialecosystems

Agriculturalecosystems

Erosion &Leaching

Rivers Lakes Groundwater

Atmospheric N Deposition Key tasks

• Historic emissions – quantify sources, source data & model spatial distribution

• Model time series of emissions & deposition• UK focus & European background• Analyse & interpret data• Publish results & collaborate on further work• Publish data

Present Day

• First population census data• Industrial Revolution

• Domestic coal use peak• Board of Agriculture established

• Large scale Haber-Bosch processing commences

• Increase in motor vehicles

Peak in sulphur emissions

• Peak NOx & NH3 emissions• Sulphur reducing

1950

1970

1990

20101900

1800

200+ years of history – emission sources

View of Leeds. Overlooking Kirkstall Road (Cohen & Ruston (1912).

Gas PhaseCO2, CO, NOx,

SO2, HCN, NH3…

Aerosol PhaseOrg, NO3

-, NH4+,

SO42-, Cl-

Fuels

Wood

Peat

Coal

low-temperature domestic combustion, traditional burning practices/fuels

Output: emission per kg fuel

Great Smog of 1952

Pig density

London horse buses

Town gas

19th century livestock weigh bridges

DUKES historical power station data

Seabird guano industry

Pig density (county level)

Historic emission trends 1800-2010

NHx emissions (kt NH3)agriculture (livestock manures, fertiliser application)waste processing (composting, anaerobic digestion, sewage, etc.)

SOx emissions (kt SO2)combustion of fossil fuels (industry, power generation)

NOy emissions (kt NO2) combustion of fossil fuels (mainly industry, transport)

SO2 important for atmospheric chemistry/deposition processes

European background & deposition modelling

Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model

Creating boundary conditions for a 5km FRAME-UK simulation

µg m-3

SO4

18001800 1900

1950 1970

1990 2010

Sulphur deposition 1800-2030

Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.

Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars

Large power stations, road transport, peak SO2

International & national SO2 legislation

Grid square average deposition

Total nitrogen deposition 1800-2030

Grid square average deposition

Oxidised N deposition 1800-2030Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, domestic burning, mining, etc.

Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars

Further increase in transport & industry, peak NOx

Large power stations, road transport

International & national legislation

Main sources:• Combustion• Motorised

transport• Industry

Grid square average deposition

Reduced N deposition 1800-2030

Industrial RevolutionIncrease in human population, livestock, domestic burning, etc.

Further (smaller) increases + transport; wars

Further agricultural intensification, transport & industry, peak NH3

fertiliser input increasing & associated agricultural production

Small decrease in NH3 (mainly fewer animals, less fertiliser applied, some mitigation, e.g. IED)

Main source:Agriculture (livestock & fertilisers)

Grid square average deposition

Temporal trends in N deposition 1800-2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

ktN

ye

ar-1 Total N

Reduced N

Oxidised N

Comparison with measurement-based data

CBED model, R. Smith et al.,

CEH Edinburgh

Conclusions

• N & S deposition increased hugely during 19/20th

centuries

• S deposition – emission reductions a big policy success!

• Recent considerable decreases (since ~1990) in total N

deposition mainly due to NOx emission reductions

following international legislation (e.g. combustion plants,

catalytic converters). Partial success story, in progress.

• Reduced N (ammonia) now largest source of N

deposition, largely unchanged & predicted to remain stable

• Changing spatial patterns and composition of N deposition

Acknowledgements

Online datasets:

Vision of Britain, Edina Agricultural Census, Defra UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

Contributions:

David Simpson (Norwegian Meteorological Institute & Chalmers University of Technology)

Maciej Kryza (University of Wroclaw)

Agricultural ammonia emissions

2010

Agricultural NH3 Emissions

kg NH3N ha-1 yr-1

≤ 10

> 10 - 100

> 100 - 500

> 500 - 1,000

> 1,000

Analysis of N deposition components

0

100

200

300

400

500

1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

kt N

ye

ar-1

NHx total NOy total N total

Oxidised/reduced N deposition 1800-2030

0

100

200

300

400

500

1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

kt N

ye

ar-1

N total N wet N dry

Wet/Dry N deposition 1800-2030

0

50

100

150

1800 1900 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030

kt N

yea

r-1

NHx dry NOy dry NHx wet NOy wet

Components of N deposition (wet NOx, dry NOx, wet NHx, dry NHx)

Components of N Deposition (1970)

Grid square average deposition estimates

(i.e. taking account of land cover)

NOyWet Deposition

NOyDry Deposition

NHxWet Deposition

NHxDry Deposition

Total N Deposition

N Deposition

kg N ha-1 yr-1

≤ 2.5

> 2.5 - 5

> 5 - 10

> 10 - 15

> 15 - 25

> 25

Oxidised nitrogen Reduced nitrogen