LTC, Annual Forum, The Direction of Technology in Transportation, 05/13/2011, Steve Mazor
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Transcript of LTC, Annual Forum, The Direction of Technology in Transportation, 05/13/2011, Steve Mazor
Steve MazorManager, Automotive Research Center &
Chief Automotive Engineer
Drivers of Technological Change
• Ground Level Air Quality “Smog”
• Global Warming – Greenhouse Gas Reduction
• Energy Security
• Congestion Relief
• THE ECONOMY—THE COST TO GET FROM HERE TO THERE
LA at its Worst
The Goal
South Coast Air BasinPASSENGER VEHI CLES MI LES TRAVELED
vs.PASSENGER VEHI CLES VOC EMI SSI ONS
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800
1,200
1,600
2,000
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VO
C E
mis
sion
s (t
ons/
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)
Mil
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er D
ay (
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Total Passenger VOC EmissionsTotal Passenger Vehicle Miles
Greenhouse Gas Reductions
• Transportation is the largest single man-made source with passenger vehicles accounting for 27% in 2006
• When carbon-based fuels are burned (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, propane, ethanol, etc.) exhaust is essentially H20 and CO2
Greenhouse Gas Reductions
• Must use more non-carbon based fuels such as electricity (although some carbon- based fuels are used to generate electricity) or hydrogen
• Improve vehicle efficiency since improved mpg = reduced CO2 emissions
Energy Security
• Really means that we want to insure a reliable supply of affordable energy, no matter what happens elsewhere
• Home-produced fuels (CNG, ethanol, bio-diesel, electricity, hydrogen)
• Fuel diversity reduces sensitivity to upheavals
Congestion Relief
• We want to be able to get where we are going in a timely fashion
• We will not be able to build our way out of congestion
• Technological improvements leading to automated vehicles and roadways will help
The Economy
• This is really the main driver from the consumers’ side
• People will do what they can to be able to afford mobility
• For example, the increased demand for high mpg vehicles due to today’s high fuel prices
The Auto in 2035
• Significant portion of fleet will use “traditional” fuels, although these fuels may be unrecognizable
• We may have already seen the demand peak in California for petroleum-based fuels
• Could see EV “fast-charging” stations that can provide 80% charge in a few minutes
• Could see hydrogen refueling stations on every corner like today’s gasoline stations
• Automated vehicles/roadways will appear. Electrified vehicles are a natural fit into automation systems
• Other options may appear