The Future

of SportLondon Strategy Unit

11th September 2014

Matt Bo!ey

Changes in

There will be massive changes in sport in the next ten years.

These changes in sport will be driven by changes in technology.

How can we tell what changes in technology are coming?

Sports

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Everything is digital

Everything is a sensor

Virtual is as good as real

More data, better predictions

Augmenting the organic

Smarter non-human intelligence

Our idea of it will radically widen

It will be watched and enjoyed more intensively

Participation rates in ‘sport’ will rise

Modification will transform competition

Data will shape our view of talent

New ways and new things to compete against

INCOMING TECH TRENDS IMPACT ON SPORT

In the future

Our idea of it will radically widen

...we’ll think of sport as a digital

activity, as much as a physical one.

1.

Technology that makes this possible

• Rise of ‘eSports’, such as League of

Legends (LoL) and DOTA2 - video games

watched by millions.

• Streaming platforms such as Twitch and

Azubu (Amazon acquired Twitch for

$970m)

• Gamer teams, such as Invictus (China) or

Moscow 5 (Russia). Twitch’s

‘International’ event has a total $10.9m

prize money.

• 8.5 million people watched Twitch’s

annual event simultaneously. The

Olympic 2012 YouTube stream

peaked at!500,000.

“The signs of success already mirror the achievements of major sports. Game tournaments sell out giant arenas, and some attract at-home audiences larger than those of top traditional sporting events.”

Nick Wingfield, The NY Times.

Unresolved issues: Monetising eSports

Will eSports adopt the same commercial model as today’s sport?

• For example, ad breaks (they will have to

artificially insert them into gameplay), kit sponsors

(will sponsors be IBM or Under Armour?)

Or will they create unique, innovative models?

• For example, amateurs can pay a fee to play on

the professional ‘field’

In the future

It will be watched and enjoyed more intensively

...broadcast sport will be as

rewarding as being in the stadium.

2 .

Technology that makes this possible

• ‘The Alert Shirt’ by Wearable Technology

allows its wearer to feel every tackle, leap

and catch that players make, as it

happens during the game.

• Cameras are getting smaller and smarter.

Cisco Systems have proposed image sensors

embedded onto contact lenses, so we can

see exactly what the athlete is seeing.

• Developers Sinne have produced an app

‘Referee Pro’ to help the ref in their

decisions. This means perfect, fan-

visible judgment calls.

Chris Kluwe, NFL

“…You’ll actually be able to see what your

favourite player did on the play from his or her perspective. That’s something that we’ve

never really had up to this point. From there, it leads to people becoming more comfortable

with the idea of things like augmented reality…”

Unresolved issues: Migrating atmosphere

As the experience of broadcast sport gets

more intense, we may come to see

stadiums themselves - where the action

actually takes place - as less atmospheric.

We will have to bring the atmosphere of

those watching at home, wearing alert

shirts and seeing every ball angle, into the

stadium - and vice versa.

PSV Eindhoven staged an anti wi-fi campaign in their grounds to keep fans eyes on the game and not on their phones.

In the future

Participation rates in ‘sport’ will rise

...we’ll play sport whenever we want, with whoever we

want, and against any opponent we want

3 .

Technology that makes this possible

• Oculus Ri"’s VR headsets give a ‘360’ sporting

experience - these have already been used to

allow 6 Nations fans to experience team talks

and getting tackled first-hand.

• StatVU allows us to completely map player

styles and recreate their performance.

• Combined use of these technologies mean you

could play against a ‘real’ Messi.

Brooke Borel

“I think what will happen is that we’ll start to see much more

augmented reality and virtual reality interfaces in sports. I think that that’s a natural progression—as people become more used to that type of technology in their everyday lives, then it becomes

natural for them to see it in their entertainment as well.”

Unresolved issues: Rewrite sporting history

each weekVirtual participation rates will skyrocket.

Combining immersive VR with eSport technology

eliminates the physical logistics from playing a

game with your mates - so we’ll play more o!en.

Add to that the capacity to recreate your

favourite players using player data, and you and

your mates’ 5-a-side team will be able to train

with a ‘real’ pro.

Player reconstruction

techniques will mean we are

able to replay simulations of

classic matches - and relive (or

rewrite) history.

England vs Germany ’66 anyone?

In the future

Modification will transform competition

...rather than frowning on doping, we’ll

celebrate athletic augmentations and the companies that manufacture them.

4 .

Technology that makes this possible

• Mechano Growth Factor (MGF) is an injectable muscle

growth stimulant, undetectable by current anti-doping

tests.

• Ossur has developed prosthetic limbs that are 15-25%

lighter than human ones.

• Genetic therapy techniques have already been developed

whereby hormones are lab-grown and injected into

athletes - organic performance boosters.

• Trans-cranial stimulation (TCS) can temporarily super-

charge spatial abilities using electrical current passed

into the skull.

Dr. Ted Friedmann, chair of the genetics panel of the World Anti-Doping Agency.

“Gene doping has been sort of smouldering as a

theoretical possibility for at least two or

three sets of Olympic Games"

Unresolved issues: Next level competition

Orchestrating a ‘fair’ competition will mean

segregating augmented athletes to their own

league - leaving ‘naturals’ as second best.

As with F1, rivalries between companies will

replace rivalry between athletes. Will we support

Google (TCS), Novartis (gene therapy) or Adidas

(prosthetics)?

Will we see the emergence

of the 50-year old Premier

League player, sustained

by technological

advantages?

In the future

Data will shape the way we see talent

...data will help us understand star performers better, and help us make better predictions.

5 .

Technology that makes this possible

• Most Premier League teams already use Prozone, with

analysts and data scientists looking for indicators to

quantify player performance and the events that

determine matches.

• InfoMotion Sports Technologies have developed a

basketball that transmits data and uses that data to help

players improve their game.

• Brazilian coaches used OptaPro to aid them with squad

selection and opposition scouting in the run up to the

2014 World Cup.

Boden Westover

“I’ve heard someone say that

coaches know 90% of what’s going on with their athletes,

but this technology gives them that final 10% that

opens their eyes to something they wouldn’t

have otherwise seen.”

Unresolved issues: The day the magic died

As our predictive correlations get better and

better, we will reduce the level of unpredictability

that makes sport entertaining.

Pundits will need to be able to discuss data with

presenterly flair.

As data helps us

predict future player

performance better,

we will see fewer

‘flop trades’.

In the future

New ways and new things to compete against

...Man will compete with Machine

6 .

Technology that makes this possible

• 2016 will see the first Cybathlon: athletic events where the

athletes wear exoskeletons, robotic limbs and brain-

controlled devices.

• Shelley - the self-driving car that can reach speeds of

120 mph - is practically ready to face Lewis Hamilton.

• Advances in ‘human-like’ operating systems - such as

Eugene Goostman, a robot which passed the Turing Test

this year - will make interactions with these robots

ba"ingly normal.

Boden Westover

“To some extent the Olympics and related sporting

competition is about seeing how far the human being can go, how far it can perform…Transhumanist competition

and an Olympics dedicated to it would be the fullest

expression of this idea."

Unresolved issues: The robot that chokes

Viewers will flock to see if machine can beat man -

and gradually, whether man will beat the

increasingly perfect machines. Eventually we may

have robots vs robots in separate leagues.

Support is all about the emotional connection.

So we will need to engineer ‘personalities’ that

we feel we can cheer for: ‘showboat’ robots,

the ‘never-say-die’ robot.

we’ll need

a robot

that chokes.

Robots will

soon be unbeatable, so

we’ll have to engineer in

‘faults’ that occur in response

to certain fan behaviour and

emotions, maintaining the

unpredictability of events.

In short ,

These changes are heralded by technology we have now

1. eSportsGame Streaming

2. Immersive viewingWearable technology

3. Immersive playingVirtual reality

4. Advanced athletesPhysical augmentation

5. Data coachingPredictive data

6. Robot athletesAdvanced robotics and OS

If everyone has gene therapy to stay healthy, why bother

with sport?

Full circle: sport as social capital factory

Thank you.matt@londonstrategyunit.com

Matt Bo"ey

+447903 991 699