Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth...

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Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Transcript of Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth...

Page 1: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation

Matthew StoneManaging Director

PRIMAShanghai, July 2019

Page 2: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

PRIMA’s Scope

Market leading fundamentals, analytics and pricing for low carbon intensity biomass-based diesel, renewable diesel, feedstocks Europe/Americas/worldwide

Page 3: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

PRIMA maps the global complex

Page 4: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

UCOME price boom has arrived

Page 5: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Fraud threatens Dutch, UK balances

Page 6: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Authorities expect industry action

Page 7: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

2020: Europe signals explosive growth

Page 8: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Trading the FQD

Implied GHG demand growth similar across the EU

High-GHG will be in demand

There could be huge price spreads between EU member states

Page 9: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

From late 2019 onwards, growth in international HVO throughput will

be exponential to challenge biodiesel feedstock streams

Page 10: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019
Page 11: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

Palm falls out of favour in EU

High ILUC will further disadvantage palm, speeding efforts to diversify into other feedstocks

Page 12: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

US RD throughput is booming

Page 13: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

West coast demand is accelerating

Page 14: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

SG is US’ #2 US waste buyer

Page 15: Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation · Low Carbon Fuels and Feeds: trade growth and innovation Matthew Stone Managing Director PRIMA Shanghai, July 2019

EU will need to import more feedEU UCO imports: