LOUDOUN OUNTY VIRGINIA...Section 8: Sample Document and Templates 23 Sample 1: Briefing for...

LOUDOUN COUNTY VIRGINIA

OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

THREAT AND HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT (THIRA) GUIDE FOR LOCAL JURISDICTIONS

February 2017

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LOUDOUN COUNTY THIRA GUIDE FOR LOCAL JURISDICTIONS PAGE 3

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1: Introduction 5 Purpose 5 Scope 5

Section 2: THIRA Overview 7 Importance of the Assessment 7

Section 3: THIRA Model 9 Developing a THIRA Model 9 Loudoun County Model 9

Section 4: Methodology 15 Creating a Methodology 15 Loudoun County’s Methodology 15

Section 5: Core Capabilities 17 Identifying and Matching Core Capabilities 17 FEMA Core Capabilities 17

Section 6: THIRA Results 19 Displaying Results 19 Tracking Results 19

Section 7: Participant Expectations 21 Setting Expectations 21 Realistic Timeline 21

Section 8: Sample Document and Templates 23 Sample 1: Briefing for Leadership 25 Sample 2: THIRA Scenarios 27 Sample 3: PowerPoint for Work Sessions 29 Sample 4: Handout for Work Sessions 31 Sample 5: Agenda for WebEOC Board 33 Template 1: THIRA Document 35 Template 2: Results Document 47

Section 9: References 51


THIRA Guide INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION PURPOSE The Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Guide for Local Jurisdictions (THIRA Guide) provides tools to assist localities on developing a useful and effective THIRA based on Loudoun County’s process. Since one size does not fit all, it is encouraged to utilize the tools as a baseline and then enhance, change, or adapt them to specific needs. The THIRA Guide: Provides an overview for those starting to conduct a THIRA; Presents a local THIRA model; Explains how to create a methodology; Identifies and matches FEMA Core Capabilities; Describes how to utilize THIRA Results; Sets reasonable expectations and timelines; and Provides various THIRA templates to help start the process.

I SCOPE The THIRA Guide is applicable to local jurisdictions who may need assistance with developing a Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment.

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THIRA Guide THIRA OVERVIEW

THIRA OVERVIEW IMPORTANCE OF THE ASSESSMENT The Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) is a strategic analysis of hazards that pose a significant threat to a community. Conducting a THIRA allows the jurisdiction to assess specific challenges and examine vulnerabilities along with direct and indirect impacts during a significant event. The THIRA evaluates and analyzes past experience, historical information, probability, projected impacts, and resource availability. By recognizing and understanding the risks that the community faces, jurisdictions are able to make better resource management decisions. The purpose of the THIRA is to: Determine plausible and significant community threats and hazards in order to assess

risks through subject matter expertise. Provide a detailed analysis of resources that are immediately available within the

community or through mutual aid, business processes, or procurement of new resources. Evaluate jurisdiction’s resource capabilities across five mission areas: Prevention,

Protection, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery. The THIRA is composed of a four-step process that:

1. Identifies threats and hazards of concern; 2. Gives the threats and hazards context; 3. Establishes capability targets; 4. And then applies the results.

This process standardizes the risk analysis by helping jurisdictions map and link risks to the core capabilities identified by the National Preparedness System. The analysis generates desired outcomes, capability targets, and resources required to achieve capability targets. By examining what jurisdictions need to prepare for, shareable resources required, actions that could be employed to mitigate threats and hazards, and what resources the community has available, jurisdictions are able to prioritize future planning and preparedness initiatives.

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THIRA Guide THIRA MODEL

THIRA MODEL DEVELOPING A THIRA MODEL The Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201 provides a standard process for identifying community-specific threats and hazards and setting capability targets for each core capability identified in the National Preparedness Goal as required in Presidential Policy Direction (PPD) 8: National Preparedness. While CPG 201 identifies a four-step process to complete the assessment, it falls short of identifying plans, policies, and procedures and ultimate follow-through of results. In order to create a meaningful, useful THIRA, it is necessary to adapt the process to fit jurisdictional needs. To understand how to adapt the THIRA process for a jurisdiction, it is important to explore Loudoun County’s THIRA process. In the initial stages of the County’s THIRA planning process, the planning team recognized that to get the most out of conducting a THIRA, the steps needed to be modified. Since the focus was not on identifying resources, the planning team came up with some initial, known gap areas in order to identify plans, policies, and procedures that would satisfy that gap without having to make any purchases of tangible resources. While the team did capture a list of tangible resources, Loudoun’s intent was not to create a budget “wish list” but a comprehensive list of strategic and planning gaps that could be addressed through the documentation of a common business or the development of a plan. If a jurisdiction identifies resource gaps, the THIRA is equally as useful a tool. The Loudoun County Model incorporates the CPG 201 steps with four additional steps developed by the OEM planning team. The additional steps allow partners (or stakeholders) to candidly discuss capabilities, capture and compile results, and then allows jurisdictions to present information in a meaningful way and then ultimately develop their plans, policies, and procedures. LOUDOUN COUNTY MODEL The model below is color coded to show how and where Loudoun County added additional steps when there were deficiencies in the process. The steps in BLUE are specific to CPG 201. The steps in GREEN are Loudoun County’s additions. The Loudoun County Model displays eight blocks that incorporate six major steps and two half steps to develop a comprehensive and effective THIRA.

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The model steps are: Step 1: Identify Threats and Hazards of Concern Step 2: Give Threats and Hazards Context Step 2.5: Partner Interviews Step 3: Establish Capability Targets Step 4: Apply the Results Step 4.5: Display the Results Step 5: Presentation of the Information Step 6: Get it All Done and Then Repeat

Figure 1. Loudoun County THIRA Model

STEP 1: IDENTIFY THE THREATS AND HAZARDS OF CONCERN

Based on a combination of experience, forecasting, subject matter expertise, and other available resources, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management (Loudoun OEM) identified a list of threats and hazards of primary concern to the community. According to CPG 201, threats and hazards are organized into three categories: Natural, Technological, and Human- Caused Incidents. Natural hazards are those resulting from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes,

or tornadoes, and as disease outbreaks or epidemics. Technological hazards are those resulting from accidents or the failures of systems and

structures, such as hazardous materials (HazMat) spills or dam failures. Threats or human-caused incidents are those resulting from the intentional actions of an

adversary, such as a threatened or actual chemical or biological attack or cyber event. Loudoun OEM started with FEMA’s comprehensive list of threats and hazards (CPG 201, page 6) then eliminated those that tested similar capabilities. Best Practice: If the goal is to test the capabilities of current damage assessment

resources, a single scenario may be sufficient even though there may be multiple scenarios that could test that capability.

Once Loudoun OEM identified the list of threats and hazards, partner subject matter experts (SMEs) reviewed the list to ensure completeness.


STEP 2: GIVE THE THREATS AND HAZARDS CONTEXT

By describing the threats and hazards of concern, Loudoun OEM exhibited probable impacts to the community. Each identified threat and hazard had a unique scenario that included timing of the incident, weather/season information, and location that affected the community’s ability to manage the incident. Other conditions in the scenarios included long-term impacts, populated areas, and incidents occurring under extremely challenging circumstances. Best Practice: Utilize partners to vet or help develop the scenarios. Once there is a

complete list of scenarios, identify functional groups and organize work sessions based on the capabilities to test within the scenario. An example of functional work groups would be: Public Safety, Infrastructure, Human Services, and Administration.

Loudoun OEM found that the benefit of grouping the work sessions by function encouraged conversations. When similar groups are together, they are able to bounce ideas around and engage each other in communication. Additionally, smaller groups tend to provide more input regarding their capabilities or lack of capabilities, which is very important in the next step.

STEP 2.5: PARTNER INTERVIEWS

Loudoun OEM conducted “partner interviews” to help bridge the delivery of information between development of scenarios and establishment of capability targets. OEM divided partners into functional groups (identified in Step 2) where they candidly discussed their capabilities based on assigned scenarios. Best Practice: Ensure a safe and secure environment during these work sessions and

promise partners that capabilities will not be shared. Best Practice: To keep the meetings on task, a visible agenda tracking method (WebEOC

Battle Rhythm Board) should be utilized to manage scenarios and time. A team of two members from emergency management should be used: a facilitator and note-taker. The facilitator should ask leading, open-ended questions and utilize active listening skills directed at certain agencies to get the conversation started. The facilitator should be someone who is familiar with other departments or agencies responsibilities during a significant event. The note taker should capture notes of the discussion.

STEP 3: ESTABLISH CAPABILITY TARGETS

Through the assessment of each threat and hazard, Loudoun OEM and partner agencies began to develop desired outcomes and specific capability targets for each identified threat and hazard based the given scenario. Desired outcomes described the level of effort needed to successfully deliver core capabilities. Capability targets defined success and described the details of what the community wanted to achieve, according to the Comprehensive Preparedness Guide. Best Practice: Capture detailed notes on what the participants are discussing during each

work session. Once the notes are compiled, share them with participants to ensure that information was captured properly and in the correct context.

Best Practice: Once the work session is complete, schedule a follow-up meeting with

each agency to have the partner (or subject matter expert) to continue to draft desired outcomes and capability targets based on the notes of the discussion. This allows representatives to review issues that are specific to their discipline and encourages partners to categorize the “type” of capability target (stand-alone plan, enhancement to plan, policy, etc.).

STEP 4: APPLY THE RESULTS

STEP 3: ESTABLISH CAPABILITY TARGETS

For each core capability, Loudoun OEM and partner agencies estimated the resources required to achieve the capability targets through the use of community assets and mutual aid, while also considering preparedness activities and mitigation opportunities. Sources such as strategic and operational plans, resource data, and existing capabilities were used to estimate the resources needed for each capability target. Best Practice: Identify available resources and desired resources necessary to achieve

the capability targets and then match those to FEMA’s Core Capabilities. The Core Capabilities will help determine how to best apply resources, based on the threats that are most relevant. If the jurisdiction plans to conduct a THIRA every few years, focusing on a few core capabilities at a time may help drive the THIRA process and make results more achievable.

Best Practice: Partner agencies should review the available resources and desired

resources to ensure that the information is accurate.


STEP 4.5: DISPLAY THE RESULTS

Loudoun County OEM displayed results by capturing available resources and desired resources under each Target Capability in the assessment. Additionally, OEM created a supplemental, follow-up document to the THIRA, referred to as the Results Document that further captured information on the results. The Results Document included a short summary of each plan, associated scenarios, and primary/support agencies responsible for each plan. The document was presented to leadership for review and prioritization of plans, polices, and procedures along with endorsement and further instructions.

STEP 5: PRESENTATION OF INFORMATION

S The Loudoun OEM THIRA document presented the process used to conduct the THIRA, complete assessment, summary or conclusion, distribution method, and attach the supplemental Results Document. Best Practice: The document should also include information or tracking and further

documenting progress of achieving the identified results.

STEP 6: GET IT ALL DONE AND THEN REPEAT

The THIRA is a dynamic, living document.

Best Practice: The THIRA should incorporate new threats and hazards along with demographic and resources changes in the next version.


THIRA Guide METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY CREATING A METHODOLOGY

Creating a methodology for the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) is extremely important due to the complexities of the process. The methodology will ensure that future planners developing the THIRA will have a thorough reference to how the steps were completed. To create a methodology: Define the direction: Set the scope of the process by establishing start and end points.

Identify the purpose and objectives of the process as well as who benefits from it. Identify key issues: Identify key issues or performance factors that affect the quality of the

process. Take on the perspectives of different stakeholders in the process. Put the process into context: Identify a larger system in which the process is a component.

Determine the scope, limits, and focus of the process. Set criteria: Identify five criteria for the process to enhance the design of the methodology.

Criteria ensures that the desired outcomes have been met. Inventory information and resources: Review the quality and quantity of relevant

information. Address the key process issues to see if anything is missing or of poor quality and correct it.

Logically order the process: Organize the process into a methodology by logically

ordering the steps. Break the process down into stages and determine key things that must be done and how they can be sequenced most effectively.

Execute the methodology: Execute the process using the methodology as a guide.

Identify areas of confusion that a first-time user may experience in performing each step and make it clearer.

Assess each step: The goal here is to improve the quality of the methodology as seen

both in the effectiveness of following the methodology and in the product that results.

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Facilitate the process: Test the effectiveness of the methodology by choosing a context in which to facilitate it (i.e., a class of students, a group of colleagues, a workplace setting, etc.).

Assess performance: Use the performances and assessment data collected to determine

what improvements should be made to the methodology; analyze the differences between desired and actual outcomes.

LOUDOUN COUNTY’S METHODOLOGY In order to provide a comprehensive assessment, an array of resources was used to identify threats and hazards. Experience, historical reference, documentation from past incidents, likelihood of occurrence, and probable impacts were used to certify that potential threats and hazards would be identified and assessed. Upon identification of potential threats and hazards, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) developed scenarios based on the capacity to overwhelm and examine current resources, plans and policies, agreements, and common business practices. Eighteen scenarios were developed and evaluated by OEM and then placed into one of four Emergency Support Function (ESF) Groups which consisted of multiple ESFs. The four groups were Public Safety, Infrastructure, Human Services, and Administration. A subject matter expert from each agency, private-sector partner, and non-profit organization was asked to review and provide feedback for each scenario associated with their ESF Group. This vetting process ensured that the scenarios would overwhelm agency resources and cause significant impacts in the County. Once the vetting process was complete, agency representatives were invited to a ‘THIRA Work Group Session’ based on their ESF Group. The purpose of each work group session was to identify current and future capabilities affiliated with each scenario. Due to the sensitive subject matter, participants were assured that information would not be shared publicly. By design, the group session encouraged participants to actively engage in the discussion. Representatives from OEM engaged the group by asking questions about how agency plans, processes, and resources would be used during each scenario. Detailed notes were taken throughout the discussions. This information was analyzed and categorized into two sections: current policies, processes, and procedures; and areas for improvement. This assessment was returned to each participant for review of accuracy and additional input and clarification. As a result, OEM was able to develop a specific list of desired outcomes, capability targets, available resources, and desired resources for each scenario from each agency. In order to foster a common language for preparedness, as described in the National Preparedness Goal, the Loudoun County Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) aligned target capabilities with the 31 core capabilities. This methodology allowed stakeholders to actively contribute to the discussion and analysis of each of the identified threats and hazards. The results of this assessment generated a catalog of desired resources capable of achieving desired outcomes. Additionally, stakeholders considered various methods to obtain resources that aren’t immediately available within the County.


THIRA Guide CORE CAPABILITIES

CORE CAPABILITIES IDENTIFYING AND MATCHING CORE CAPABILITIES

In order to match FEMA Core Capabilities to desired outcomes, it is important to define a list of core capabilities that align with the jurisdiction’s chosen area of focus. Instead of trying to tackle all 32 Core Capabilities in the THIRA, identify 5-10 Core Capabilities that would be most meaningful to the jurisdiction. This will allow focus to be on a handful of scenarios instead of trying to work through every possible threat and hazard. For example, if a priority Core Capability is Housing, then develop scenarios that will test current capabilities specific to that area of focus. FEMA CORE CAPABILITIES

METHODOLOGY The National Preparedness Goal defines what it means for the whole community to be prepared for all types of disasters and emergencies.

“A secure and resilient nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk.”

The National Preparedness Goal identifies 32 Core Capabilities (see Table 1: Core Capabilities by Mission Area) that are the distinct critical elements needed to achieve the goal. These capabilities are grouped into five mission areas: Prevention, Protection, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery. Some core capabilities apply to several mission areas. Core Capabilities provide a common language for preparedness used to organize capability targets aligned with each threat and hazard. These targets recognize that everyone needs the flexibility to determine how they apply their resources, based on the threats that are most relevant to them and their communities.

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Table 1: Core Capabilities by Mission Area PREVENTION PROTECTION MITIGATION RESPONSE RECOVERY

Planning Public Information and Warning

Operational Coordination Forensics and Attribution Intelligence and Information Sharing Interdiction and Disruption Screening, Search, and Detection

Access Control and Identity Verification Cybersecurity Intelligence and Information Sharing Interdiction and Disruption Physical Protective Measures Risk Management for Protection Programs and Activities Screening, Search, and Detection Supply Chain Integrity and Security

Community Resilience Long-term Vulnerability Reduction Risk and Disaster Resilience Assessment Threats and Hazard Identification

Critical Transportation Environmental Response/Health and Safety Fatality Management Services Fire Management and Suppression Logistics and Supply Chain Management Infrastructure Systems Mass Care Services Mass Search and Rescue Operations On-scene Security and Protection Operational Communications Public Health, Health Care, and Medical Services Situational Assessment

Economic Recovery Health and Social Services Housing Infrastructure Systems Natural and Cultural Resources


THIRA Guide THIRA RESULTS

THIRA RESULTS DISPLAY RESULTS

While the THIRA is a comprehensive assessment of threats and hazards, it is important to follow up with a document that separately identifies the resulting plans, policies, procedures, and resources. The THIRA Results document provides a summary of each individual result and identifies primary and support agencies responsible for achieving those results. In order for the THIRA to be a successful tool, compiling the results of the THIRA is essential in achieving the desired outcomes and capability targets. Upon completion, these plans, components, and procedures will serve as tangible improvements to what are now day-to-day business practices, communications gaps, and limited long-term sustained operations and recovery efforts. Although the THIRA Results section is not part of the CPG 201 process, it is the most significant section of the assessment. TRACKING RESULTS Tracking the THIRA results will help measure progress when addressing gaps identified during the assessment. To help track, Loudoun County has developed a WebEOC THIRA Tracking Board, which is available to any National Capital Region jurisdiction. The Tracking Board displays each result along with its associated scenario, lead agency responsible for obtaining the result, and any other pertinent information. WebEOC is able to run reports that may help in developing future THIRA scenarios, budget discussions, or overall agency capabilities. It is important to assign a representative from the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) to each lead agency. The OEM representative can then utilizing the WebEOC THIRA Tracking Board to provide status information on the project. In turn, this will also allow OEM to provide updates to the Emergency Management Executive Committee (EMEC) on the progress of any THIRA-related initiatives.

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THIRA Guide PARTICIPANT EXPECTATIONS

PARTICIPANT EXPECTATIONS SETTING EXPECTATIONS It is essential to set realistic expectations for participants since the THIRA will take up a significant amount of their time. Participants may have a role in helping to develop scenarios or tasked with serving as the lead agency on a plan. At the very least, they should be aware there is potential for an assignment. Additionally, participants should be reminded that agency (emergency management) support is available to assist with any resulting assignments. REALISTIC TIMELINE When planning for conducting a THIRA, take into consideration that it could reasonably take 12-18 months to complete Steps 1-5. Timelines may change depending on other priorities, Emergency Operation Center (EOC) activations, and any other unforeseen projects. Step 6 will take additional time to complete outside of the 12-18 month window. If the results are plans, policies, and procedures, they may take years to complete depending on priorities within the program. If the results are composed of purchasing or acquiring additional resources, the timeline will then be dependent on budget cycles, grants, and other procurement avenues.

Figure 2. Timeline Based on Calendar Year

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THIRA Guide SAMPLE DOCUMENTS AND TEMPLATES

SAMPLE DOCUMENTS AND TEMPLATES SAMPLE DOCUMENTS AND TEMPLATES The following samples and templates are for guidance only. These documents are provided for modification purposes and should be tailored to the individual needs of the jurisdiction. Samples: Sample 1: Briefing for Leadership

Sample 2: THIRA Scenarios

Sample 3: PowerPoint for Work Sessions

Sample 4: Handout for Work Sessions

Sample 5: Agenda for WebEOC Board

Templates: Template 1: THIRA Document

Template 2: Results Document

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BRIEFING FOR LEADERSHIP SAMPLE 1

The briefing for leadership describes the THIRA process along with jurisdictional goals. The briefing should be long enough to provide an overarching view of the THIRA, but also describe the expectations for departments and agencies as they participate in the THIRA process. The briefing should take place after the jurisdiction has defined the process and identified potential scenarios.

The Threat and Hazard Identification Risk Assessment (THIRA) is a strategic analysis of hazards that pose a significant threat to our community. The analysis is based on historical information, resource availability, probability, and projected impacts. A whole community, all-inclusive planning approach is vital in achieving a thorough analysis. Our goal is to identify and examine threats and hazards based on plausible, yet significant scenarios. Consider that these incidents have the potential to cause significant impacts to our community. It is imperative that you, the subject matter expert, are part of our planning process. As you review the scenarios, you will be asked to help identify desired outcomes, target capabilities and resources. This will help us determine our current capabilities and desired capabilities. Scenarios are based on the following: Natural hazards are those resulting from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes,


structures, such as hazardous materials (HazMat) spills or dam failures. Threats or human-caused incidents are those resulting from the intentional actions of

an adversary, such as a threatened or actual chemical or biological attack or cyber event. Please be prepared to discuss resources that you have or have access to along with the following terms: Desired Outcome: The standard to which incidents must be managed, including the

timeframes for conducting operations and required resources. Capability Target: Capability targets define success for each core capability and describe

what the community wants to achieve by combining detailed impacts with basic and measurable desired outcomes based on the threat and hazard context statements developed in Step 2 of the THIRA process.

Core Capability: Defined by the National Preparedness Goal, 31 activities that address the greatest risks to the Nation. Each core capabilities is tied to a capability target.

Capability Estimation: Communities should consider the quantity and types of resources needed to complete each mission-critical activity in support of the capability targets. To identify quantity and types of resources, communities can use existing tools and information sources, such as:

Strategic, operational, and/or tactical plans Resource typing data, including standardized resource characteristics Existing capacity analysis and capability calculators


THIRA SCENARIOS SAMPLE 2

Develop the scenarios in partnership with subject matter experts. When designing scenarios, look at plausible, yet significant threats and hazards. Each scenario should identify date, time, and other specific information to get it context. When identifying scenarios, ask what capabilities need to be assessed and what would overwhelm current resources. It is helpful to identify focused areas (but not necessary) ahead of time. For example, if a pre-identified focus area is damage assessment, an earthquake scenario would be sufficient to address that gap.

DROUGHT In late October after months of inadequate rain, Loudoun County was designated as a D-4 exceptional drought locality. Loudoun Water initiated a mandatory restriction in an effort to reduce demand from 40 million gallons to approximately 18 million gallons a day. Local water utilities instituted voluntary conservation practices in order to reduce usage. A statewide burn ban was placed in effect; however, long-term dry conditions have had an adverse impact on local crops. EARTHQUAKE On January 23 at 1422hrs, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred 92 miles south of Leesburg in Louisa County, Virginia. The earthquake was 3.7 miles in depth and noticeable shaking was felt through the Washington metropolitan area and beyond. There are numerous reports of damage to residential and commercial structures, as well as the transportation infrastructure (roads and bridges), power grid, and water and gas transmission lines in Loudoun County. An unknown number of buildings are damaged, but reports are estimating that it could be up to 300. A 5-story apartment complex in the eastern part of the County shows interior and exterior cracking in walls and has been evacuated. Two other apartment buildings have been declared uninhabitable by County building inspectors and have been evacuated. A four-story commercial parking structure under construction in Ashburn has suffered a partial collapse. Post-earthquake inspections of all structures reported damaged are required to ensure integrity of those systems. There are three dozen minor injuries and no deaths.


POWERPOINT FOR WORK SESSIONS SAMPLE 3

The sample PowerPoint slides are to help design functional work sessions. Likely, leadership with designate representatives to attend on their behalf so it is helpful to review the THIRA and process.

Slide 1: What is a THIRA? The THIRA is a 4-step risk assessment that helps the whole community understand its risks and estimate capability requirements. Asks: What do we need to prepare for? What shareable resources are required in order to be prepared? What actions could be employed to avoid, divert, lessen, or eliminate a threat or hazard? Does the community have requisite resources to respond?

It will help us in a variety of emergency management efforts, including: emergency operations planning, mutual aid agreements and hazard mitigation planning. Overall, this will help us identify gaps and potentially help fund future initiatives, improve our strategies in planning, guide our planning processes, and help investigate our current resources. Types of Threats and Hazards: Natural hazards are those resulting from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes,


structures, such as hazardous materials (HazMat) spills or dam failures. Threats or human-caused incidents are those resulting from the intentional actions of an

adversary, such as a threatened or actual chemical or biological attack or cyber event. Slide 2: THIRA Process:

1. Identify threats and hazards of concern: based on a combination of experience, forecasting, subject matter expertise and other available resources, identify a list of the threats and hazards of primary concern to the community.

2. Give the threats and hazards context: describe the threats and hazards of concerns, showing how they may affect the community.

3. Establish capability targets: Assess each threat and hazard in context to develop a specific capability target for each core capability identified in the National Preparedness Goal. The capability target defines success for the capability.

4. Apply the results: For each core capability, estimate the resources required to achieve the capability targets through the use of community assets and mutual aid, while also considering preparedness activities, including mitigation opportunities.

Scenarios Questions/Comments that should be asked during each scenario to lead participants. (Note: don’t post on slide—keep as a note that you can continuously refer to during each work session).

1) Don’t be concerned if a hazard is not being discussed. Each function will be tested, but they will be in different scenarios.

2) Is there anything in the scenario that would stress current capabilities? 3) What are current capabilities? 4) Think through how to accomplish a task within the scenario? 5) The outcome could be a plan, physical resources, an agreement, etc. 6) No issues? How are capabilities currently managed?

Human Services Group

Natural Earthquake Date/Time: January 23 at 1422hrs

A magnitude 5.8 earthquake occurred 9 miles from Leesburg, VA. The earthquake was 3.7 miles in depth and appears to have caused extensive damage to the transportation infrastructure (roads and bridges), power grid, and gas transmission lines. Approximately 325 buildings are damaged, but none have collapsed. Three apartment buildings are deemed uninhabitable. Post-earthquake inspections of all flues in geographic areas--where damage was sustained-- are required to ensure integrity of those systems. There are three dozen minor injuries and no deaths.

Focused Area

Mass Care –Evacuation Sheltering Volunteer Loudoun- Volunteer Management


HANDOUT FOR WORK SESSIONS SAMPLE 4

The sample handout was designed to present to work session representatives so that they could follow along as the THIRA process is described. The handout includes key terms, definitions, examples, and models to help agency representatives understand what the THIRA is trying to achieve.

THIRA KEY TERMS AND EXAMPLES Key Terms: Desired Outcome: The standard to which incidents must be managed, including the

timeframes for conducting operations and required resources. Capability Target: Capability targets define success for each core capability and describe

what the community wants to achieve by combining detailed impacts with basic and measurable desired outcomes based on the threat and hazard context statements developed in Step 2 of the THIRA process.

Core Capability: Defined by the National Preparedness Goal, 31 activities that address the greatest risks to the Nation. Each core capabilities is tied to a capability target.

Capability Estimation: Communities should consider the quantity and types of resources needed to complete each mission-critical activity in support of the capability targets. To identify quantity and types of resources, communities can use existing tools and information sources, such as:

Strategic, operational, and/or tactical plans Resource typing data, including standardized resource characteristics Existing capacity analysis and capability calculators

Examples: Response and Recovery: impacts often describe actions that a community would take

to manage an incident after it has occurred. Prevention, Protection, and Mitigation: impacts often descript actions a community

would take prior to an incident to stop it from occurring or to reduce its effects. Identify impacts based on: Size of geographic area affected Number of displaced households Number of fatalities Number of injuries or illnesses

Disruption to critical infrastructure Intelligence requirements and needs Amount of direct economic impacts Economic effects of supply chain

disruption

Example: Impacts, Desired Outcomes and Capability Targets

Example: Capability Estimation

Example: Mitigation Activities


AGENDA FOR WEBEOC BOARD SAMPLE 5

The agenda for the WebEOC Board (Battle Rhythm) will track time spent on each scenario for each work session. Once the agenda is finalized, it can easily be added to the WebEOC Battle Rhythm Board as a visual reminder to participants while talking through each scenario. This will ensure that the work session stays on track. Follow-up to information should be scheduled as a separate meeting. Reminder: Not every group needs to talk through every scenario. The scenarios should be split based on desired area of focus. However, more than one group may review a scenario. Function: Administration (6 scenarios) 1pm-3pm- 16 min each 1:00-1:10 What is a THIRA (Intro) 1:10-1:20 THIRA Process (Includes Desired Outcomes/Capability Estimation slides) 1:20-1:36 Scenario 1 1:36-1:52 Scenario 2 1:52-2:08 Scenario 3 2:08- 2:24 Scenario 4 2:24-2:40 Scenario 5 2:40-2:56 Scenario 6 2:56-3:00 Closing/Follow-up Function: Infrastructure (5 scenarios) 9am-11am- 20 min each 9:00-9:10 What is a THIRA (Intro) 9:10-9:20 THIRA Process (Includes Desired Outcomes/Capability Estimation slides) 9:20-9:40 Scenario 1 9:40-10:00 Scenario 2 10:00-10:20 Scenario 3 10:20-10:40 Scenario 4 10:40-11:00 Scenario 5 11:00-11:02 Closing/Follow-up


THIRA DOCUMENT TEMPLATE 1

The THIRA Document should display the background, process, results, and other applicable information from the THIRA. This document should be labeled as ‘For Official Use Only’ and distributed to only those who participated in the process. The THIRA describes the jurisdictions capabilities and lack of capabilities so it is very important to ensure that the document is protected.

JURISDICTION NAME

THREAT AND HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK

ASSESSMENT (THIRA)

Date

The information contained in this document is Unclassified/For Official Use Only (U/FOUO) and should be treated appropriately. No portion of this document may be released without the consent and

authorization of the Director of Emergency Management.

SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

SECTION TITLE PAGE 1 Introduction Participating Agencies and Partners List of Distribution

2 Background Description Core Capabilities THIRA Methodology THIRA Process

3 Results Drought Earthquake Epidemic/Pandemic

4 Conclusion


PARTICIPATING AGENCIES AND PARTNERS This section should identify all of the agencies and partners who participated in the THIRA process. LIST OF AGENCIES

LIST OF DISTRIBUTION This section should list all agencies or partners who received a copy of the THIRA. The THIRA is a ‘For Official Use Only’ and should only be delivered to participants who agree not to share the capability information. A unique identifier should be on the bottom of each THIRA tracking purposes.

PARTNER AGENCY COPY # DATE


SECTION 2: BACKGROUND

DESCRIPTION This section should describe why a jurisdiction is conducting a THIRA along with the threats and hazards that pose a risk to the community. This should include goals of the THIRA and what the jurisdiction plans to do with the results.

CORE CAPABILITIES This section should describe the 32 FEMA core capabilities and their relationship to the THIRA. This is important to showcase that the THIRA is meeting the National Preparedness Goal. This section can also identify the core capabilities of the jurisdiction’s focus and why those areas are important.

he National Preparedness Goal defines what it means for the whole community to be prepared for all types of disasters and emergencies.

“A secure and resilient nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk.”

The National Preparedness Goal identifies 32 core capabilities that are the distinct critical elements needed to achieve the goal. These capabilities are grouped into five mission areas: Prevention, Protection, Mitigation, Response, and Recovery. Some core capabilities apply to several mission areas. Core capabilities provide a common language for preparedness and are used to organize capability targets aligned with each threat and hazard. These targets recognize that everyone needs the flexibility to determine how they apply their resources, based on the threats that are most relevant to them and their communities.

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THIRA METHODOLOGY This section should clearly describe a methodology for developing a THIRA process. This should be chronological and easy to follow. The methodology will ensure that future planners developing the THIRA will have a thorough reference to how the steps were completed. See page 12 for a Loudoun County’s methodology.

THIRA PROCESS This section should describe the overarching process to develop the THIRA. This should be based on the Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201. If there are additional step that have been identified, include those in the process.

he Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201 provides a standard process for identifying community-specific threats and hazards and setting capability targets for each core

capability identified in the National Preparedness Goal as required in Presidential Policy Direction (PPD) 8: National Preparedness. The process consists of four steps: STEP 1: IDENTIFY THE THREATS AND HAZARDS OF CONCERN. Based on a combination of experience, forecasting, subject matter expertise, and other available resources, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management identified a list of threats and hazards of primary concern to the community. Based on the four-step THIRA process, there are three types of threats and hazards:

1. Natural hazards are those resulting from acts of nature, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, or tornadoes, and as disease outbreaks or epidemics.

2. Technological hazards are those resulting from accidents or the failures of systems and structures, such as hazardous materials (HazMat) spills or dam failures.

3. Threats or human-caused incidents are those resulting from the intentional actions of an adversary, such as a threatened or actual chemical or biological attack or cyber event.

Table 2: Loudoun County Identified Threats and Hazards

NATURAL TECHNOLOGICAL HUMAN-CAUSED Drought Earthquake

STEP 2: GIVE THE THREATS AND HAZARDS CONTEXT. By describing the threats and hazards of concern, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management exhibited probable impacts to the community. Each identified threat and hazard has a unique scenario which includes timing of the incident, weather/season information, and location which all affect the community’s ability to manage the incident. Other conditions in the scenarios included long-term impacts, populated areas, and incidents occurring under extremely challenging circumstances. STEP 3: ESTABLISH CAPABILITY TARGETS. Through the assessment of each threat and hazard, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management and partner agencies were able to develop desired outcomes and specific capability targets for each identified threat and hazard based their given scenario. Desired outcomes describe the level of effort needed to successfully deliver core capabilities. Capability targets define success and describe the details of what the community wants to achieve, according to the Comprehensive Preparedness Guide.

STEP 4: APPLY THE RESULTS. For each core capability, the Loudoun County Office of Emergency Management was able to estimate the resources required to achieve the capability targets through the use of community assets and mutual aid, while also considering preparedness activities, including mitigation opportunities. Sources such as strategic and operational plans, resource data, and existing capabilities were used to estimate the resources needed for each capability target.

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SECTION 3: RESULTS RESULTS

This section should display scenarios and results information. By providing the results directly under the scenario, it is easier for the reader to follow along. The functional groups should be identified along with the associated core capability.

SCENARIO 1: DROUGHT n late October after months of inadequate rain, Loudoun County was designated as a D-4 exceptional drought locality. Loudoun Water initiated a mandatory restriction in an effort to

reduce demand from 40 million gallons to approximately 18 million gallons a day. Local water utilities instituted voluntary conservation practices in order to reduce usage. A state-wide burn ban was placed in effect; however, long-term dry conditions have had an adverse impact on local crops.

FUNCTIONAL GROUP: INFRASTRUCTURE

CORE CAPABILITY: OPERATIONAL COORDINATION DESIRED OUTCOME: CAPABILITY TARGETS: AVAILABLE RESOURCES:

DESIRED RESOURCES: RESULTING PLANS, POLICIES, AND PROCEDURES:

SCENARIO 2: EARTHQUAKE

n January 23 at 1422hrs, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occurred 92 miles south of Leesburg in Louisa County, Virginia. The earthquake was 3.7 miles in depth and noticeable shaking

was felt through the Washington metropolitan area and beyond. There are numerous reports of damage to residential and commercial structures, as well as the transportation infrastructure (roads and bridges), power grid, and water and gas transmission lines in Loudoun County. An unknown number of buildings are damaged, but reports are estimating that it could be up to 300. A 5-story apartment complex in the eastern part of the County shows interior and exterior cracking in walls and has been evacuated. Two other apartment buildings have been declared uninhabitable by County building inspectors and have been evacuated. A four-story commercial parking structure under construction in Ashburn has suffered a partial collapse. Post-earthquake inspections of all structures reported damaged are required to ensure integrity of those systems. There are three dozen minor injuries and no deaths.

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FUNCTIONAL GROUP: INFRASTRUCTURE

CORE CAPABILITY: INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS DESIRED OUTCOME: CAPABILITY TARGETS: AVAILABLE RESOURCES:


DESIRED OUTCOME: CAPABILITY TARGETS: AVAILABLE RESOURCES:


CORE CAPABILITY: PLANNING



CORE CAPABILITY: OPERATIONAL COORDINATION




Section 4: Conclusion

CONCLUSION This section should describe the results of the THIRA. For example, if the jurisdiction identified 14 plans, policies, or procedures as gap, they would be discussed in this section and address why they are of importance. The conclusion should also identify next steps for addressing gaps identified in the THIRA. This section is very important to showcase that the THIRA doesn’t just stop with results, it goes further to address those results.


RESULTS DOCUMENT TEMPLATE 2

The Results Document is just as important as conducting a THIRA. The Results Document displays the plans, policies, procedures, and resources that need to be addressed in order to fill gaps identified in the THIRA. This document can be presented to leadership for feedback and prioritization. Once the gaps are prioritized, the document should be endorsed by leadership and provided to department heads to initiate development plans, policies, procedures, and acquisition of resources.

[JURISDICTION NAME]

THREAT AND HAZARD IDENTIFICATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT

(THIRA) RESULTS TEMPLATE

Date

The information contained in this document is Unclassified/For Official Use Only (U/FOUO) and should be treated appropriately. No portion of this document may be released without the consent and authorization

of the Director of Emergency Management.

INTRODUCTION This section should describe a summary of the THIRA Results along with the purpose, scope, and tracking mechanism. Results from the [Year/Jurisdiction] Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) documented [# of results] unique elements that represent strategic or operational gaps in the County’s ability to respond efficiently and effectively to significant events. These elements may be in the form of new plans, enhancements to existing plans, or specific procedures. Purpose The purpose of this document is to identify lead and support agencies responsible for development of the identified elements. A member of OEM will provide project management assistance and participate on any planning team as requested, based on availability. Contact (list email) for additional information. Scope This document applies to all County departments and agencies outside County government who participated in the THIRA process or who have an identified role or responsibility. Tracking OEM will track progress of each element and will provide regular updates to the Emergency Management Executive Committee (EMEC). Agencies will designate a representative who will provide ongoing status updates to OEM.


RESULTS This section should identify all the plans, policies, procedures, and resources that resulted from the THIRA. Categorizing the results will help keep the document organized. Categories could include “New: Multi-Discipline Plans”, “Enhanced: Multi-Discipline Plans”, “New: Individual Agency Plans”, “Policies”, just as a few examples. Each result should have a summary and identify primary and support agencies responsible for development. The result should also link the associated scenario so that agencies know exactly where the gap occurs.

NEW: MULTI-DISCIPLINE PLANS NAME OF PLAN A Explain the purpose of the plan and name any additional components that should be included. This should be a short summary. List the agencies involved. Example language: the primary agency is (department) supported by (department or departments). List Associated Scenario

Name of Plan B Explain the purpose of the plan and name any additional components that should be included. This should be a short summary. List the agencies involved. Example language: the primary agency is (department) supported by (department or departments). List Associated Scenario

ENHANCEMENTS: MULTI-DISCIPLINE PLANS NAME OF PLAN C Explain the purpose of the enhancement to the plan and name any additional components that should be included. This should be a short summary. List the agencies involved. Example language: the primary agency is (department) supported by (department or departments). List Associated Scenario

NAME OF PLAN D Explain the purpose of the enhancement to the plan and name any additional components that should be included. This should be a short summary. List the agencies involved. Example language: the primary agency is (department) supported by (department or departments). List Associated Scenario

AGENCY-SPECIFIC PLANS AND PROCEDURES

NAME OF PLAN E Explain the purpose of the plan and name any additional components that should be included. List the lead agency. List Associated Scenario


THIRA Guide REFERENCES

REFERENCES

REFERENCES Smith, P. and Apple, D. (2016, February). Methodology for Creating Methodologies.

Retrieved from http://www.pcrest3.com/fgb/efgb4/2/2_4_16.htm. Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2013). Threat and Hazard Identification and

Risk Assessment Comprehensive Preparedness Guide (CPG) 201.

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