LOST IN TRANSITIONSUBSTANCE ABUSE AND RISK OF EXCLUSION - FROM YOUTH TO ADULTHOOD IN NORWAY

Nordic alchohol and drug researchers’ assembly 2010, Reykjavik

Torild Hammer, NOVA

Christer Hyggen, Fafo

Research question

To what extent does the combination of substance abuse and mental health problems, as well as labour market exclusion of youth explain the increasing rates of disability and inactivity among young Norwegians ?

Background

Low levels of unemployment in Norway, but: 80 000 youth outside school & labour

market 10 000 on disability benefits

Sharp increase since 1990 Psychiatric disorders: anxiety & depression

Number of people receiving disability benefits or rehabilitation money

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

DisabledOccupationally disabled

Source: NAV

Rate of new cases of disability benefits by diagnosis. Men 25 – 29 years. per 100.000

Mental illness

Accidents, poisoning, violenceMuscle and skeletal disease

All other diagnoses

Neural system

Source: Brage & Thune 2008

Rate of cases of disability benefits by diagnosis. Women25 – 29 years. per 100.000

Mental illness

Accidents, poisoning, violenceMuscle and skeletal disease

All other diagnoses

Neural system

Source: Brage & Thune 2008

Background continued

Increase in alcohol consumption

Increase in drug use

Alcohol consumption among (19 to 20 years old). Pure liters alcohol.

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20070

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

BoysGirls

Source: Sirus

A new adulthood

Extended youth Longer time in education Postpone marriage and parenthood

Does the new adulthood imply a continuation of lifestyle and patterns of drug and alcohol consumption into adulthood?

The survey

T5 200335 – 39

yr70 %

Sample:N =1997

Stratified by Occupation in 1985:- In education: 0.25 (N=801)- Employed:0.70 (N=800)- Unemployed: 1.0 (N=394))

T1 198517 – 20

yr85 %

T2 198719 – 22

yr80 %

T3 198921 – 24

yr73 %

Official records 1985 - 2003: Social Assistance, Social security, Education, Employment, Marriage, Children etc.

T4 199325 – 29

yr73 %

The study design

198717 – 18 years: leaving school

1993Young

adulthood:Risk of receiving social

assistance

2003Adulthood: Risk

of receiving health related social security

Main source of income

1987 1989 1993 20030 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

OtherSpouse's incomeParents incomeRehabilitation moneySocial securitySocial assistanceStudent loan/ scholarshipPersonal income

Receiving social assistance in youth

Predictors of receiving social

assistance•Single parent•Children•Parental divorce•Mental health•Use of cannabis 1987

Controlled for, not significant

•Alcohol consumption 1987•School dropout

Labour market exclusion, adulthood

Predictors of labour market

exclusion•Social assistance youth•Mental health youth•Illegal drugs youth•Alcohol problems•Gender•Low parental socioeconomic status

Controlled for, not significant

•School dropout•Parental divorce•Cannabis use youth•Alcohol consumption

Conclusions

No direct effects of school dropout and disability in adulthood

No direct effects of the use of cannabis or alcohol consumption

Mental health as strong predictor

Analysis

Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4B Sig. Exp(B) B Sig. Exp(B) B Sig. Exp(B) B Sig. Exp(B)

Received social assistance 1987-1993 0,542 * 1,719 0,599 * 1,82 .335 1.398 .300 1.350Mental health 1987 0,053 * 1,054 0,024 1,024 .641 * 1.897 .595 * 1.813Men=1 -0,42 * 0,657 -0,636 * 0,53 -.604 * .546 -.601 * .548SES group 2 -0,674 * 0,51 -0,531 0,588 -.457 .633 -.454 .635SES group 3 -0,386 0,68 -0,171 * 0,843 -.179 .836 -.222 .801SES group 4 -1,099 * 0,333 -0,702 0,496 -.791 .454 -1.057 * .348SES 4* received social assistance 1,645 * 5,182 1,292 * 3,641 1.506 * 4.507 1.737 * 5.681Cannabis use 1987 0,075 1,078Alcohol consumption 1987 0 1School drop out 1987 0,069 1,072Parental divorce 0,199 1,22Other illegal drugs = 1 0,721 * 2,056 .678 1.969 .693 2.000In work 1985 0,071 1,074Unemployed 1985 0,195 1,216Alcohol problems 0,181 * 1,199 .083 1.086 .045 1.046Evaluation of health .540 * 1.715 .552 * 1.737Years of education -.043 .958Constant -2,176 0 0,114 -1,722 0 0,179 -3.323 .000 .036 -3.008 .000 .049

Cox & Snell R Square 0,053 0,054 0,1 0,1