Loss of sea ice in the Svalbard Barents Sea region - … · Loss of sea ice in the Svalbard –...
Transcript of Loss of sea ice in the Svalbard Barents Sea region - … · Loss of sea ice in the Svalbard –...
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Loss of sea ice in the Svalbard –
Barents Sea region
Ingrid H. Onarheim1 T. Eldevik1, M. Årthun1, L.H. Smedsrud1, R.B. Ingvaldsen2
1 Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway 2 Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway
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http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/
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Sea ice area in September
2012
2007 2015
Are
a (
10
6 k
m2)
Reduced by ~50% since 1979
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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September March
1979-2013
Trends in sea ice concentration
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Helland-Hansen and Nansen, 1909: “… the quantity of ice in spring is dependent on the quantity of heat contained in the water-masses of the Barents Sea during winter…”
The Svalbard - Barents Sea region
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1901 1902 1903 1904 1905
Atlantic Water
- - - Cod
~68ºN
~62ºN
Helland-Hansen and Nansen, 1909: “… the quantity of ice in spring is dependent on the quantity of heat contained in the water-masses of the Barents Sea during winter…”
The Svalbard - Barents Sea region
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Fish communities
2004 2012
Arctic community Central community Atlantic community
Fossheim et al. (2015) Nature Climate Change
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Shtokman
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Onarheim, I.H., L.H. Smedsrud, R.B. Ingvaldsen, and F. Nilsen (2014). Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard. Tellus A, 66, 23933
Loss of sea ice during winter north of Svalbard
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NSIDC
Seasonal variations in sea ice concentration
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NSIDC
Seasonal variations in sea ice concentration
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1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 2011 2012
NSIDC
40% ice concentration
Loss of sea ice in winter since the 1980s
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r=0.5
NSIDC ERA-Interim
• No trend in wind • Impact on interannual
variability
Ice concentration and wind (DJFM)
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+1°C
+7°C
Extra AW heat: • melting of sea ice • atmospheric warming • warming of ambient
waters • carry on into the Arctic
Ocean
Increased AW heat content > 30 times increased atmospheric heat content
Ice concentration, AW temperature and air temperature (DJFM)
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Onarheim, I.H., T. Eldevik, M. Årthun, R.B. Ingvaldsen, and L.H. Smedsrud (2015), Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5364–5371,
Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover
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ice
atmosphere
Atlantic water Arctic water
1981
Barents Sea
Norwegian
Sea
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
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ice
2010
Barents Sea
Atlantic water Arctic water
Norwegian
Sea
atmosphere
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
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ice
Barents Sea
Atlantic water Arctic water
Norwegian
Sea
atmosphere
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
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Aice
Barents Sea
Atlantic water Arctic water
HT
HF
dHC/dt = -HF + HT
-dAice/dt = aAice + bHT
Norwegian
Sea
atmosphere
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
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Aice
Barents Sea
Atlantic water Arctic water
HT
HF
dHC/dt = -HF + HT
-dAice/dt = aAice + bHT r = 0.84
sign: 31/35
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
Norwegian
Sea
atmosphere
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Aice
Barents Sea
Atlantic water Arctic water
HT
HF
dHC/dt = -HF + HT
-dAice/dt = aAice + bHT + gV r = 0.92
Årthun et al., J. Clim., 2012; Onarheim et al., GRL, 2015
+ wind
Norwegian
Sea
atmosphere
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The Barents Sea ice edge
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Dagens Næringsliv 8 August
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Barents Sea ice area
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Prognostic framework
29
HF
HT
Aice
HT: heat transport HF: heat flux HC: heat content
HC
𝑑𝐻𝐶
𝑑𝑡= 𝐻𝑇 − 𝐻𝐹
Atlantic domain Arctic domain
?
𝑑𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒
𝑑𝑡= −
𝑞0
ℎ𝑐0𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒 −
1
ℎ𝑐0𝐻𝑇
𝐻𝐶 = −ℎ𝑐0𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒, 𝐻𝐹 = −𝑞0𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒
ℎ𝑐0 =𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐻𝐶
𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒, 𝑞0 =
𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐻𝐹
𝑠𝑡𝑑 𝐴𝑖𝑐𝑒
Årthun et al. (2012)
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March
Trends in sea ice concentration
Barents Sea explains 92% of
winter variance in Arctic sea ice