Looking to the future of the past: a new era in the analysis of historical census data? Eilidh...
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Transcript of Looking to the future of the past: a new era in the analysis of historical census data? Eilidh...
Looking to the future of the past:a new era in the analysis of historical census data?
Eilidh Garrett, University of Essex.
With thanks to: Alice Reid, Ros Davies; CAMPOP, University of Cambridge
Andrew Blaikie; University of Aberdeen
Leverhulme TrustWellcome Trust
ESRCDigitising Scotland Project
General Register Office for Scotland/National Records for Scotland
Despite over 50 years of concentrated research, we still do not know why fertility declined during the Demographic Transition.
Cummins, 2011 Journal of Economic History, 71.2 p. 465
Published: 1917, 477 pages
Published: 1923260 pages
Report on the twelfth decennial census of Scotland, Vol. 1 [Parts 1-23] Page 2,published: 1912
Published 1913
Values of Ig by province of Europe, 1870Coale and Watkins, The decline of Fertility in Europe 1986 (Princeton).
The ‘Coale’ or ‘Princeton Index’ of Marital fertility Ig
Scotland 1881: Ig M. Anderson & D.J. Morse, Population Studies, 47
(1993) 5-25
‘Princeton’ Indeces:
If Overall fertilityIg Marital fertilityIh Illegitimate fertilityIm Proportions married
Hutterite fertility age specific marital fertility schedule applied to age distribution of women observed to give ‘expected’ number of births.
Index = observed/expected fertility
Im – measure of proportions married
Statistical tables –Census reports and Registrar General’s reports
HISTPOP histpop.org
Constrained by reporting geography and statistics published.
Forty-fourth annual report of the registrar-general (1881) BPP 1883 XX [C.3620] Page 35
Census of England and Wales, 1881, Population, Vol. III. Age, marriage, occupation, birth-place
R.I. Woods The Demography of Victorian England and Wales 2000 (CUP) Fig 4.17
Variations in Ig among the (registration) districts of England and Wales, 1861, 1891 and 1911
Considering fertility at the community level, using census data.
Keighley, West Yorkshire: 1851-1881 census snapshots, linked census data
13 ‘OPCS’ communities, England & Wales: 1891-1921 (anonymised): Abergavenny, Axminster, Bethnal Green, Banbury, Bolton, Earsdon, Morland, Pinner, Saffron Walden, Stoke, Swansea, Walthamstow, York.
census snap shots1911 fertility census
Skye and Kilmarnock, Scotland: 1861-1901census snapshots
linked civil register and census data
Ipswich, England: 1871-1901; 1911census snapshots
linked vaccination register/civil register and census data1911 findmypast links
Belfast, Ireland: 1901 and 1911.census snapshots
linked street register and census data1911 findmypast links
The family of Alex and Johanna Beaton/Alexander and Hannah Bethune: censuses and civil registers, Skye 1861-1881
1861 censusupper halistra alex beaton head 26 tailor
johanna beaton wife 26ann beaton dau 6 scholarjohn beaton son 3donald beaton son 1
1871 censusstein village alexander bethune head 38 merchant and dealer
hanna bethune wife 38
ann bethune dau 16 domestic servjohn bethune son 12 scholardonald died 30/04/1861
christy bethune dau 8 scholar born 10/03/1862margaret born 09/08/1864
died 08/08/1865mary bethune dau 6 scholar born 09/08/1864
maggie bethune dau 4 born 27/06/1866joanna ? born 19/07/1868dolina bethune dau 9mo born 13/9/1870
1881 censusstein john bethune head 22 merchant
alexander bethune father 48 tailorhannah bethune mother 48 tailor's wifeann ? married Malcolm McLeod 20/04/1876donaldchristina bethune sister 20 general servantmargaretmary bethune sister 16 general servantmaggie bethune sister 14 scholarjohanna bethune sister 11 scholardolina bethune sister 9 scholaragnes bethune sister 7 scholar born 14/12/1872
27.4.54 27.8.55 18.3.57 27.1.59 2.10.60 14.9.62 27.2.65 5.11.67 1875
1.3 1.6 1.9 1.7 2.0 2.5 2.7 (6.8)
The McPhail Family of Jura
29.5 30.8 32.4 34.3 36.0 38.0 40.5 43.2 50.0
Date of Birth
Mother’sAge at Birth
Interbirth interval (years)
Angus McPhail married Mary McColl; 27.4.54
Mary Ann Margaret Archibald Hugh John Neil
Image: Findmypast.co.uk
A 1911 census return fromIpswich, England
WILLIAM COBBOLD AND MARY ANN BIRD MARRIED IN IPSWICH, 4th quarter OF 1888.
CHILDREN OF WILLIAM AND MARY ANN COBBOLD REGISTERED 1889-1908:
name of child age91 age01 age11 birthdate deathdate1 William John 25/07/1889 26/01/18902 Alice Maud 1 10 20 02/09/18903 John 08/10/1892 22/10/18924 Elsie 6 17 30/04/18945 Eva 4 14 13/09/18966 Christian 1 11 12/06/18997 Un named girl twin * Alexandra 0 03/03/1901 21/04/19028 Un named boy twin * Albert 0 03/03/1901 28/04/19029 Mahela? Matilda? 8 10/12/1902
10 Dorothy Mildred 11/04/1904 16/02/190511 Mary 2 28/06/1908
Extract from the 1911 Census return of 14 Clune Place, Pottinger Ward, Belfast –showing confusion in the filling out of the ‘particulars as to marriage’.
http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/
Fertility census: Scotland, 1911: an example
Reproduced by kind permission of the Registrar General for Scotland.
Censuses of 1901 and 1911
37654 people in 1911
10% of Belfast in 1911
Street directories
1901, 1903, 1905, 1907, 1908, 1910
Allow detailed examination of mobility
Shankill: working class Protestant
Falls: working class Catholic
Windsor: middle class Protestant
Sample populations: drawn from selected wards & streets, Belfast 1911
1901 Census5 Ligoniel St. (outskirts of Belfast)Mary (26) and Simon ARMOUR (28, quarry labourer)Living with 2 children and sharing house with Richard Proudford (44, widower, gardener) and his 5 children aged 4 - 16
1907 directory29 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner1908 directory31 Bowness Road: S. Armour, wood turner
1910 Directory130 Leopold Street: S. Armour, wood turner
1911 Census59 Cambrai StreetSimon (38, wood turner) & Mary (35) ARMOUR: married 14 years, 10 children 4 dead.
Moves by the Armour Family 1901-1911
percentage of households present in 1911 which were there in previous years, married people, by
age in 1911
0102030405060708090
100
J-01
J-02
J-03
J-04
J-05
J-06
J-07
J-08
J-09
J-10
J-11
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70+
http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk/
Integrated Census Microdata: ICeM
http://www.histpop.org/
Individual level census returns: Scotland (1851-1901), England & Wales (1851-1861, 1881-1911)NESSTAR
Published census reports 1801-1931: GB, Scotland, England & Wales, IrelandReports of the Registrars General: Scotland (1855-1919), England & Wales (1837-1920)
http://www.census.nationalarchives.ie/ Online, searchable databases
Transcribed, geo-referenced contents of all birth marriage and death certificates of Scotland, 1855 - …
Linked??
http://icem.data-archive.ac.uk
England and Wales 1851, 1861, (1871), 1881, 1891, 1901, 1911
c.17-35 million records
Scotland1851, 1861, 1871, 1881, 1891, 1901, (1911)
c.2.9-4.4 million records
‘Anonymised’ (without names and addresses)
and ‘full’ versionsof the datasets
The parishes of Scotland, England & Wales, 1851.
The data underlying this map are taken from Schurer, K. and Higgs, E., Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM); 1851 -1911 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive
[distributor], April 2014. SN: 7481 , http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7481-1.
The Geographical Information System was constructed by Dr C. F. Roughley and Dr A. E. M. Satchell, both
of the University of Cambridge. Further details are provided in
E. Higgs, C. Jones, K. Schürer and A. Wilkinson, The Integrated Census Microdata (I-CeM) Guide, (2013),
http://www.essex.ac.uk/history/research/icem/documents/icem_guide.pdf
We are still asking:
When did fertility decline start?Where did it start?Who started it?Why did it start?How was it achieved?
We may now have the tools to answer these questions within our
grasp