LONGWave 10-10-12 - DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCES
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DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE Delusional Distortions + Dangerous Divergences = DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCES Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document. This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report October 10th, 2012 Disconnecting from Reality
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Transcript of LONGWave 10-10-12 - DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCES
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
Delusional Distortions+
Dangerous Divergences=
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCES
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Disconnecting from Reality
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
LONG TERM - FUNDAMENTALS – EARNINGS• DIVERGENCE - Stealth Warnings Season Not Going Well - Divergence Between Stocks And Earnings • ESTIMATES - Up / Down Revisions
- Estimates Simply Don't Match Reality• VALUATION - Markets Seriously Overvalued by Most Metrics• INVESTOR SHIFTS - Steady Equity Exit
- A “Front Running the Fed” Bond Bubble
INTERMEDIATE TERM – RISK• ANALYTICS - 11 Months of QE Priced in• QE III - Doesn't Bode Well For Traders• GLOBAL GROWTH SLOWING - Dangerous Divergences• DRIVERS - Fiscal Cliff, a Eurozone Led Slowdown & Gross Margins Lance Roberts – 10-05-12• WARNING - Caterpillar
- China – Shanghai – Hong Kong Warnings Signs 10/01/12• EARNINGS – Early Indicators• SPEAKING OUT - MISPRICING: Sam Zell
- LET MARKETS CLEAR: Jim Grant
SHORT TERM - SENTIMENT• PEAK COMPLACENCY • CANARIES - Equity Investors Now Fleeing Equity Markets • ALL IN - Everyone on the same side of the boat• UP THEN DOWN – Goldman’s Outlook
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
LONG TERM - FUNDAMENTALS – EARNINGS
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
DIVERGENCE - Stealth Warnings Season Not Going Well - Divergence Between Stocks And Earnings
ESTIMATES - Up / Down Revisions - Estimates Simply Don't Match Reality
VALUATION - Markets Seriously Overvalued by Most Metrics
INVESTOR SHIFTS - Steady Equity Exit - A “Front Running the Fed” Bond Bubble
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
PRICE
VOLUME
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
INTERMEDIATE TERM – RISK
ANALYTICS - 11 Months of QE Priced in
QE III - Doesn't Bode Well For Traders
GLOBAL GROWTH SLOWING - Dangerous Divergences
DRIVERS - Fiscal Cliff, a Eurozone Led Slowdown & Gross Margins
WARNING - Caterpillar - China – Shanghai – Hong Kong Warnings Signs
EARNINGS – Early Indicators
SPEAKING OUT - MISPRICING: Sam Zell - LET MARKETS CLEAR: Jim Grant
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
QE PRICED IN
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
DANGEROUS DIVERGENCES
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
CATERPILLAR WARNS
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Cummins Lowers 2012 Revenue and EBIT Guidance. Company Also Announces Necessary Actions to Respond to Global Economic Slowdown.
“We continued to see weak economic data in a number of regions during the third quarter increasing the level of uncertainty regarding the direction of the global
economy.
Demand in China has weakened in most end markets and we have also lowered our forecast for global mining revenues. EBIT margins will also be below our previous guidance primarily due to the sharp reduction in revenues.”CMI is down over 7% after-hours (to three-month lows) as it seems the 16% cut expectations in Aluminum demand that Alcoa just announced can no longer be ignored. Reality is that Cummins is slashing guidance and cutting jobs in "response to the weakening global economy.“
*CUMMINS TO CUT UP TO 1500 JOBS, LOWERS YEAR REV, EBIT FORECASTS*CUMMINS SEES YEAR EBIT ABOUT 13.5%, SAW 14.25%-14.75% :CMI US*CUMMINS PRELIM 3Q REV. ABOUT $4.1B, EST. $4.425B :CMI US*CUMMINS SEES 2012 REV. $17B, SAW $18B, EST. $18.11B :CMI US
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
MISPRICING -- Sam Zell
"QE-whatever has created artificial numbers that the underlying won't support" is how Sam Zell sums up his view of the Fed's actions, adding that the Dow should be more like 9000, not 14000. The typically optimistic bottom-feeding real-estate magnate says he is not buying here, is gravely concerned about liquidity needs, and in his assessment "everything is massively too expensive." This epic CNBC interview-fest, where the less-than-cheer-leading Zell was allowed to speak, includes his views on a pending recession (as he sees capex planned projects being delayed) and while trying not to play the political card too strongly, he asks that we "stop this class warfare crap" and that the animal spirits are unleashed - as the game is being stacked against him. "We're kicking the can down the road... and with QE, there is now too much capital chasing too few opportunities - even when nobody has confidence in the future!"
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
LET MARETS CLEAR – Jim Grant
where we "return to capitalism", and markets are finally "allowed to clear." As ever, Grant is worth the price of admission as he explains how the 'monetary mandarins' have interjected themselves between us and the public price mechanism as the Fed's 'influence' has grown exponentially since its inception.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
SHORT TERM – SENTIMENT
PEAK COMPLACENCY
CANARIES - Equity Investors Now Fleeing Equity Markets
ALL IN - Everyone on the same side of the boat
UP THEN DOWN – Goldman’s Outlook
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Delusional Distortions+
Dangerous Divergences=
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCES
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND TERMS OF USE
THE CONTENT OF THIS SLIDE PRESENTATION AND ITS ACCOMPANYING RECORDED AUDIO DISCUSSION ARE INTENDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not a solicitation to trade or invest, and any analysis is the opinion of the author and is not to be used or relied upon as investment advice. Trading and investing can involve substantial risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns/results. Commentary is only the opinions of the authors and should not to be used for investment decisions. You must carefully examine the risks associated with investing of any sort and whether investment programs are suitable for you. You should never invest or consider investments without a complete set of disclosure documents, and should consider the risks prior to investing. This slide presentation and its accompanying recorded audio discussion are not in any way a substitution for disclosure. Suitability of investing decisions rests solely with the investor. Your acknowledgement of this Disclosure and Term of Use Statement is a condition of access to it. Furthermore, any investments you may make are your sole responsibility.
THERE IS RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING AND INVESTING OF ANY KIND. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
This chart is from the October 2012 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis ReportOctober 10th, 2012
DELUSIONAL DIVERGENCE
