Long-Term Multigas Mitigation Strategies

usingMESSAGE

Shilpa Rao & Keywan Riahi

IIASA

EMF-21, December 2003

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The MESSAGE Model

• Bottom-up systems-engineering model• Includes 400 individual energy conversion

and end-use technologies• 11 World Regions• Calculates feasible energy supply

technology structure, which …• … requires least cost investment and• … satisfies a given useful-energy demand

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The Reference Energy System

gaswellExtraction Treatment

Conversion Technologies

Distribution Technologies

Final Energy

End-Use Technologies

Energy Services

coalmine

oil well

agro-forestry

gascoalbio-

massoil

powerplant

refin-ery

grid/truckgridPipeline

/truck

gaselect-ricity

kero-sene

aircraft, light bulb, furnace,air conditioner, oven, automobile, etc.

synfuelplant

grid/truck

syntheticfuel

sun-light

hydrogenplant

hydrogen

grid/on site

Energy Conversion Sector

Primary Sources

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MethodologyMethodology-- II

•• Full endogenization of energy related and most Full endogenization of energy related and most industrial emissionsindustrial emissions(CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CF4, HFC)(CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, CF4, HFC)

•• Combination of various economic drivers used to Combination of various economic drivers used to develop the longdevelop the long--term path for nonterm path for non--energy emissions energy emissions in the baseline in the baseline –– Include: Total and Urban Population; Total GDP, Agricultural Include: Total and Urban Population; Total GDP, Agricultural

& Industrial GDP; Energy Consumption; Transportation & Industrial GDP; Energy Consumption; Transportation Demand; Electric T&D Demand; Electric T&D

–– Productivity improvements and decreasing emission factors Productivity improvements and decreasing emission factors were assumed for most of the sourceswere assumed for most of the sources

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MethodologyMethodology-- IIII

•• BottomBottom--up representation of mitigation up representation of mitigation technologies, wherever information availabletechnologies, wherever information available

•• Endogenized energy feedback effects from Endogenized energy feedback effects from non CO2 mitigation (capture of CH4 in coal non CO2 mitigation (capture of CH4 in coal mines, CH4 from landfills, etc.)mines, CH4 from landfills, etc.)

•• Estimation of ancillary benefits for ALL gasesEstimation of ancillary benefits for ALL gases•• MAC approach for CH4 emissions from rice & MAC approach for CH4 emissions from rice &

enteric fermentation; and N2O from soilenteric fermentation; and N2O from soil

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LongLong--Term ScenariosTerm Scenarios

•• Baseline :B2Baseline :B2--SRES ScenarioSRES Scenario

•• Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)

•• Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)

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Reference ScenarioB2 scenario

(based on IPCC SRES)

60314

135723510.421002000

3707.2408286.1

(x1.5)Atmos. CO2 Conc. ppmv

(x2)CO2 Emissions (GtC)

(x3)Primary Energy (EJ)

(x8)GDP (trillion $1990)

(x2)Population (billion)

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Baseline EmissionsBaseline Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

GTC

E

HFC-134CF4SF6N2OCH4CO2

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Sources of EmissionsSources of Emissions

•• CO2: fossil fuels; cement and gas flaringCO2: fossil fuels; cement and gas flaring•• CH4: fossil fuel extraction, distribution and enduse; CH4: fossil fuel extraction, distribution and enduse;

biomass; solid waste; manure management; enteric biomass; solid waste; manure management; enteric fermentation; rice cultivationfermentation; rice cultivation

•• N2O: fossil fuel; biomass; nitric and N2O: fossil fuel; biomass; nitric and adipicadipic acid acid industries; agricultural soilindustries; agricultural soil

•• SF6: Electric GIS; Magnesium productionSF6: Electric GIS; Magnesium production•• CF4: Aluminum production; semiconductorsCF4: Aluminum production; semiconductors•• HFCsHFCs: Residential, commercial and mobile : Residential, commercial and mobile

refrigeration and airrefrigeration and air--conditioning; insulation foams; conditioning; insulation foams; other sourcesother sources

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Mitigation Scenario Mitigation Scenario (CO(CO22 only)only)

•• Identified a concentration constraint Identified a concentration constraint that is consistent with 4.5 W/mthat is consistent with 4.5 W/m22 global global radiative forcing (since radiative forcing (since preindustrialpreindustrial))

•• Only COOnly CO22 emissions can be reduced to emissions can be reduced to meet this constraint. (full spatial and meet this constraint. (full spatial and temporal flexibility of reductions)temporal flexibility of reductions)

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Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)Mitigation Scenario (Multigas)

•• Mitigation flexibility between all gasesMitigation flexibility between all gases•• Scenario constrained to meet the Total Scenario constrained to meet the Total

Carbon Equivalent of the gases from Carbon Equivalent of the gases from the CO2 only scenario.the CO2 only scenario.

•• Used 100Used 100--year year GWPsGWPs for calculationsfor calculations

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Cumulative CO2 Reduction Cumulative CO2 Reduction (2000 (2000 -- 2100, GTC)2100, GTC)

•• Carbon Capture is the Carbon Capture is the largest contributor to largest contributor to CO2 reduction.CO2 reduction.

•• Nuclear energy Nuclear energy dominates the shifts in dominates the shifts in the energy system.the energy system.

•• Biomass plays an Biomass plays an important role in the important role in the latter half of the century latter half of the century when biomass scrubbers when biomass scrubbers become important.become important.

0 50 100 150 200 250 300GTC

OtherRenewables

Fossil fuel switch

Biomass

Nuclear

Carbon Capture

Multigas CO2-only

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Cumulative CH4 Reduction Cumulative CH4 Reduction (2000(2000--2100 MTCH4)2100 MTCH4)

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000MTCH4

Manure

Enteric

Rice

Energy

Landfills

Coal

Direct Gas Use Heat Prdn

Warm Climate Digesters

Stat & Mobile

Flaring67%

60%

29%

7%

9%

Oil & Gas

•• BottomBottom--up methodology up methodology enables us to evaluate enables us to evaluate optimum and point source optimum and point source technology strategies for technology strategies for reductionsreductions

•• Solid waste and Energy Solid waste and Energy sectors offer a large range sectors offer a large range of mitigation options.of mitigation options.

•• Regional differences are Regional differences are accounted foraccounted for-- anaerobic anaerobic digesters for manure digesters for manure management are management are significant in developing significant in developing countriescountries..

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Cumulative N2O Reduction Cumulative N2O Reduction (2000(2000--2100, MTN2O)2100, MTN2O)

•• In the industrial sector, In the industrial sector, high efficiency options high efficiency options offer maximum potential offer maximum potential for global abatement (in for global abatement (in spite of higher costs).spite of higher costs).

•• Reductions from Reductions from agricultural soil are agricultural soil are assumed to be limited assumed to be limited based on EMFbased on EMF--MACsMACs..0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

MTN2O

Adipic Acid

Soil

Nitric AcidHigh-temperature Catalysts

Thermal destruction

93%

6%

89%

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Cumulative FCumulative F--Gas Reductions (GTCE)Gas Reductions (GTCE)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20GTCE

CF4

SF6

HFC

Refrigeration & AC

Electric GIS

Aluminum

Insulation foams

Magnesium

47%

60%

16%

•• HFCsHFCs from refrigeration and from refrigeration and airair--conditioning are a fast conditioning are a fast growing source of GHG growing source of GHG emissions and offer emissions and offer considerable potential for considerable potential for reduction.reduction.

•• Electrical switchgear (leak Electrical switchgear (leak repair and recycling) is the repair and recycling) is the most attractive source for most attractive source for mitigation of SF6.mitigation of SF6.

•• Baseline already accounts for Baseline already accounts for worldwide decrease in CF4 worldwide decrease in CF4 from aluminum. Main from aluminum. Main mitigation option is mitigation option is improvement of process improvement of process control systems.control systems.

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Cumulative Emissions ReductionsCumulative Emissions Reductions(2000(2000--2100)2100)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

CO2 CH4 N2O CF4 SF6 HFC

Emis

sion

s re

duct

ions

co

mpa

red

to th

e ba

selin

e (%

)

MultigasCO2-only

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MESSAGE(GHG

emissions)

MAGICC(forcing/temp

change)

Revised CO2 Concentration Limit

Emissions for CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases

Initial CO2 concentrations (stabilization level)

MAGICC 4.0, Model for Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, Wigley et al.

Mitigation Scenario (CO2Mitigation Scenario (CO2 only)only)

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Total Radiative ForcingTotal Radiative Forcing

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Glo

bal m

eanr

adia

tive

forc

ing

(W/m

2)BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas

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Changes in Radiative Forcing Changes in Radiative Forcing

‘Others’ here includes forcing from tropospheric ozone, black carbon, sulfate and bio aerosols

CO2 only

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Others CO2 CH4 N2O F-GASES

Multigas

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

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Global Temperature ChangeGlobal Temperature Change(from 2000)(from 2000)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

320

00

201

5

203

0

204

5

206

0

207

5

209

0Glo

bal m

ean

tem

pera

ture

cha

nge

(ºC

)Baseline CO2-only Multigas

Unc

erta

inty

Ran

ge

(Mul

tiga

s Sc

enar

io)

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Atmospheric ConcentrationsAtmospheric Concentrations

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Atm

osph

eric

CO

2 co

ncen

tratio

ns (p

pmv)

BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Atm

osph

eric

N2O

con

cent

ratio

ns (p

pbv)

BaselineCO2-onlyMultigas

300

800

1300

1800

2300

2800

3300

3800

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Atm

osph

eric

CH4

con

cent

ratio

ns (p

pbv) Baseline

CO2-onlyMultigas

COCO22 CHCH44NN22OO

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Shadow Prices of COShadow Prices of CO22 ($/TC)($/TC)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

$/TC

CO2-only Multigas

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Multigas MitigationMultigas Mitigation

•• The figure shows the The figure shows the various sources of various sources of GHGsGHGs and the and the mitigation achieved mitigation achieved from the baseline in from the baseline in the the multigasmultigas scenario.scenario.

•• Industry(including solid Industry(including solid waste) represents the waste) represents the top nontop non--energy sector energy sector for potential mitigation.for potential mitigation.

•• Agriculture is a larger Agriculture is a larger source of GHG source of GHG emissions but emissions but mitigation potential is mitigation potential is limited.limited.

19902010

20302050

20702090

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

Tota

l GH

G E

mis

sion

s (M

TCE)

Energy

Industry & Others

Agriculture

Mit

igat

ion

of

CO

2, C

H4, N

2O

an

d o

ther

GH

GS

36%66%8%

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ConclusionsConclusions

•• In a multigas strategy, the bulk of In a multigas strategy, the bulk of emission reductions still comes from CO2.emission reductions still comes from CO2.

•• Industry, waste and agriculture are Industry, waste and agriculture are important potential sources of nonimportant potential sources of non--CO2 CO2 mitigation.mitigation.

•• Mitigation options in these sectors are Mitigation options in these sectors are technically and regionally diverse.technically and regionally diverse.

•• Inclusion of nonInclusion of non--CO2 gases leads to lower CO2 gases leads to lower costs.costs.