Long-term economic plans John Gourd Chairman. Current Picture (1) Our economy is growing again –...
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![Page 1: Long-term economic plans John Gourd Chairman. Current Picture (1) Our economy is growing again – GVA grew by 0.6% to 3.9% over 2012-2013 – 6 th highest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649f3c5503460f94c5add1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Long-term economic plans
John GourdChairman
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![Page 3: Long-term economic plans John Gourd Chairman. Current Picture (1) Our economy is growing again – GVA grew by 0.6% to 3.9% over 2012-2013 – 6 th highest.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022070415/56649f3c5503460f94c5add1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Current Picture (1) • Our economy is growing again
– GVA grew by 0.6% to 3.9% over 2012-2013– 6th highest growth across 39 LEPs– Hertfordshire is now a £30.4bn economy– Fifth largest upper tier economy outside London
• Back towards full employment– Workforce of 600,000– Lowest level claiming JSA since 2008– 2014 Unemployment rate at 4.6% (UK 7.6%)– Still wide sub-county variances
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Current Picture (2)
• Growing business population– Circa 50,000 businesses– During the recession the county lost over 1,000 SMEs – From 2012-14 and increase of 3,630 businesses (net).– Average business size is increasing
• Signs of overheating?– House prices rose by 13.2% (UK average 7.6% )– Skills shortages emerging– Lack of suitable employment sites
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The SEP - smart growth
Key Principles:– Anchoring/growing high value sectors, jobs and
skills in the county– Unblocking connectivity constraints– Being clear on what growth and where (jobs
and homes)– Working across boundaries where it adds value
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Global excellence in science, technology & creativity
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Key Drivers - Innovation
Strengths
• High levels of corporate R&D
• High concentrations of Knowledge Intensive Business
• Large professional, scientific & technical services sector
• High levels of University/Business collaboration
Weaknesses
• Public R&D investment • Corporate R&D
dominated by a single sector – Life Sciences
• Below average concentrations of product and process innovators
• Publication of scientific papers & research
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Key Drivers - Enterprise
Strengths
• Large SME base• Above average start-up
rates• Total number of SME’s
lost since the recession have been replaced
• High rates of private sector jobs growth
Weaknesses
• Slower to grow £1m+ turnover businesses
• High than avg micros (<10 employees)
• Below average presence in non-micro SME
• 90% SMEs don’t make it to 10th birthday
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Key Drivers - Infrastructure
• No major infrastructure projects on local highways network planned beyond 2019 to meet growth impacts. Poor East-West routes
• Employment floorspace being lost to residential – through permitted development and planning applications.
• The lowest level of new house building in the last two years in Hertfordshire.
• Housing affordability and link to availability of workforce/ability to attract and retain staff
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INSERT MAP FROM GAFGrowth is complicated…
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Delivering success through
new Growth Areas
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Conclusions
• Our economy will grow, regardless of public intervention – we can help shape it or accept the consequences
• We have a high value, diverse, complex economy that is a net contributor to UK plc – we need to work hard to keep it that way
• There isn’t a simple linear path for growth – each area is different and requires a different roadmap
• We need to shift the perception of Hertfordshire from ‘no growth’ to ‘smart growth’
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We have been here before…