Long-term climate and water cycle variability and change
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Transcript of Long-term climate and water cycle variability and change
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Long-term climate and water cycle variability and change
Dennis P. LettenmaierDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
U.S. - Japan Workshop on Global Change Climate and Water
January 14, 2003Irvine, CA
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Outline of this talk
1) What are the key modes of variability in the (land surface branch of the) water cycle?
2) How is the land surface water cycle changing?
3) What are the implications of possible future changes in the water cycle for human use and water management?
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What are the key modes of variability in the land surface
branch of the water cycle?
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Seasonal distribution of precipitation across the U.S. (from Linsley et al, 1975)
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Mean Diurnal Cycle of precipitation from observations and NCAR/DOE PCM Summer Winter
Observed
PCM
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days
Log(
1-P
)Lo
g(1-
P)
days
Roosevelt Dam, AZ
Snoqualmie Falls, WA
Log survivor functions for winter daily precipitation (from Foufoula-Georgiou, 1985)
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Variation of standard deviation of storm precipitation with aggregation scale for Darwin storm of 12/24/98 and Kwajelin storm of 12/4/98
Figure courtesy of Efi Foufoula-Georgiou
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Cross-correlation of January precipitation for selected west coast sites (from Leytham, 1982)
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Clearwater River flood frequency distribution (from Linsley et al 1975)
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Pecos River flood frequency distribution (from Kochel et al, 1988)
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Serpentine Dam Monthly Rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug S ep Oct Nov Dec
Month
Rai
nfal
l (m
m)
(1911 - 1994)
(1950 - 1994)
(1975 - 1994)
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S e rp e n t in e M o n th ly In f lo w
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0
1 8 0 0 0
J a n F e b M a r A p r M a y J u n J u l A u g S e p O c t N o v D e c
M o n th
Inflo
w (M
illion
s of
Litr
es) (1 9 1 1 - 1 9 9 4 )
(1 9 5 0 - 1 9 9 4 )
(1 9 7 5 - 1 9 9 4 )
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Perth metropolitan water supply total system inflow, 1910-2001
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Rio Bravo BasinRio Bravo Basin
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Rio Bravo/Rio Conchos total naturalized reservoir inflow, 1954-2001
4978Mm3
(1955 to 1992 avg)
2542 Mm3
(1993 to 2001 avg)
Note: does not include some upstream inflows due to lack of
extended data
Total System Inflow by Water Year
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Inflo
w (M
m3)
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Annual number of extreme precipitation events in Tijuana over ~50 years (slide courtesy of Tereza Cavazos)
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150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
190
0
191
0
192
0
193
0
194
0
195
0
196
0
197
0
198
0
199
0
200
0
Ap
r-S
ept F
low
(cfs
)
Effects of the PDO and ENSO on Columbia River Summer Streamflows
Cool CoolWarm Warm
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150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
450000
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1
Probability of Exceedence
Flo
w (
cfs)
WarmPDO/WarmENSO
WarmPDO/ENSONeut
WarmPDO/CoolENSO
CoolPDO/WarmENSO
CoolPDO/ENSONeut
CoolPDO/CoolENSO
Naturalized Summer Streamflow at The Dalles
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0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
18
50
18
60
18
70
18
80
18
90
19
00
19
10
19
20
19
30
19
40
19
50
19
60
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998
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How is the land surface water cycle changing?
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Global precipitation trends 1900-99 by season (from IPCC, 2001)
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Flow Quantile
Num
ber
of G
ages
Number of U.S. gages, of 395, reporting significantly significant trends (alpha = 0.05) during 1944-93 (from Lins and Slack, 1999)
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0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
NormalizedStreamflow
Normalized Precip
Linear (NormalizedPrecip)
Linear (NormalizedStreamflow)
Trends in Streamflow and Precipitation, Columbia River basin
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0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1858
1870
1882
1894
1906
1918
1930
1942
1954
1966
1978
1990
An
nu
al
Me
an
Flo
w (
cfs)
Annual
5 yr mean
10 yr mean
Annual Flow at The Dalles 1858-1998
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U.S. trends in pan evaporation (from Lawrimore and Peterson, 2000)
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Temperature trends in the PNW over the instrumental
record• Almost every station shows warming (filled circles)
• Urbanization not a major source of warming
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Trends in snowpack
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Trends in timing of spring snowmelt (1948-2000)
Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan
+20d later–20d earlier
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Trends in snowpack
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North Vancouver Intensity-duration regression analysis
5-min Duration y = 1.0235x - 1983.7R2 = 0.3501
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Rai
nfa
ll In
tensi
ty (
mm
/hr)
15-min Duration y = 0.608x - 1177.8R2 = 0.3212
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Rain
fall
Inte
nsi
ty (
mm
/hr)
30-min Duration y = 0.3028x - 581.93R2 = 0.2912
0
10
20
30
40
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Rai
nfa
ll In
tensi
ty (
mm
/hr)
1-hr Duration y = 0.1341x - 253.67R2 = 0.2662
0
5
10
15
20
25
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year
Rai
nfa
ll In
tensi
ty (
mm
/hr)
= statistical outliers
(from Catherine Denault and Rob Millar, UBC)
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What are the implications for society?
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PCM Business-as-Usual scenarios
Columbia River Basin(Basin Averages)
control (2000-2048)
historical (1950-99)
BAU 3-run average
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CORRA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
oct
dec
feb
apr
jun
aug
Ave
rag
e F
low
(cf
s)
Base
HC
MPI
Typical projected effect of climate change on upper Columbia River discharge, mid-21st Century
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2040-2069
60
80
100
120
140
FirmHydropower
Annual FlowDeficit atMcNary
Pe
rce
nt
of
Co
ntr
ol
Ru
n C
lim
ate
PCM Control Climate andCurrent Operations
PCM Projected Climateand Current Operations
PCM Projected Climatewith Adaptive Management
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PCM Business-as-Usual Scenarios
Snowpack ChangesCaliforniaApril 1 SWE
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Central Valley Water Year Type Occurrence
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Critically Dry Dry Below Normal Above Normal Wet
Water Year Type
Per
cen
t G
iven
WY
Typ
e
hist (1906-2000) 2020s 2050s 2090s
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Annual Average Hydrographs, Colorado River
Simulated Historic (1950-1999)Period 1 (2010-2039)Control (static 1995 climate)Period 2 (2040-2069) Period 3 (2070-2098)
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Total Basin Storage
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Annual Releases to the Lower Basin
target release
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Annual Releases to Mexico
target release
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Conclusions• Water cycle variability takes many forms, we are only
beginning to understand the interaction of climate and land surface hydrologic variability
• Jury is still out as to whether (and/or which) observed changes in land surface variables are a manifestation of “acceleration of the hyrologic cycle”, or are simply manifestations of natural variability
• If climate change projections are accurate (even as to general direction) hydrologists will be faced with important challenges understanding the interaction of climate and hydrology at the intersection of variability and change (stated otherwise, the time-honored paradigm for hydrologic risk analysis and design must be re-evaluated).