London, 14 November 2017 - Global LNG Hub · India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows...
Transcript of London, 14 November 2017 - Global LNG Hub · India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows...
©OECD/IEA2017
London, 14 November 2017
©OECD/IEA2017
Tippingtheenergyworldoffitsaxis
n Fourlarge-scaleupheavalsinglobalenergysetthesceneforthenewOutlook:Ø TheUnitedStatesisturningintotheundisputed globalleaderforoil&gas
Ø SolarPVisontracktobethecheapestsourceofnewelectricityinmanycountries
Ø Chinaisswitchingtoaneweconomicmodel&acleanerenergymix
Ø Electricity isbroadeningitshorizon,spurredbycooling,electricvehicles&digitalisation
n Thesechangesbrightentheprospectsforaffordable,sustainableenergy&requireareappraisalofapproachestoenergysecurity
n Therearemanypossiblepathwaysahead&manypotentialpitfallsifgovernmentsorindustrymisreadthesignsofchange
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India takes the lead, as China energy growth slows
Changeinenergydemand,2016-40(Mtoe)
Oldwaysofunderstandingtheworldofenergyarelosingvalueascountrieschangeroles:
India1005
420
SoutheastAsia
China790
UnitedStates-30
Japan-50
Europe-200
270CentralandSouthAmerica
485Africa
135 Eurasia
480MiddleEast
theMiddleEastisfastbecomingamajorenergyconsumer&theUnitedStatesamajorexporter
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.. as China moves global energy markets, again
Changeinworldenergydemandbyfuel
Worldwidedemandgrowthto2040wouldbetwiceashighwithout energyefficiencyimprovements:
Coal(Mtce)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
- 5001990-2016 2016-40
Oil (mb/d)
6
12
18
24
30
1990-2016 2016-40
Gas(bcm)
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1990-2016 2016-40
Low-carbon(Mtoe)
400
800
1200
1600
2000
1990-2016 2016-40
A world in motion..
globaltrendsareshapedbyChina’sswitchtowardsnaturalgas&low-carbonfuels
OthercountriesChina
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GW
Solar PV forges ahead in the global power mix
Globalaverageannualnetcapacityadditionsbytype
China,India&theUSleadthechargeforsolarPV,whiletheEUisafrontrunnerforonshore&offshorewind:risingsharesofsolar&windrequiremoreflexibilitytomatchpowerdemand&supply
RenewablesNuclear
GasCoal
RenewablesNuclear
GasCoal
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160GW
2010-2016
2017-2040
SolarPV Wind
SolarPV Wind Other
Other
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The future is electrifying
Electricitygenerationbyselectedregion
Indiaaddstheequivalentoftoday’sEuropeanUniontoitselectricitygenerationby2040,
MiddleEast
2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Africa
SoutheastAsia
EuropeanUnion
India
UnitedStates
China
TWh2016 Growthto2040
Sourcesofglobalelectricitydemandgrowth
Industrial motors
Cooling
Largeappliances
Connected&small
appliances
Electric vehicles
Other
whileChinaaddstheequivalentoftoday’sUnitedStates
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Electriccarsarehelpingtotransformenergyuseforpassengercars,slowingthepaceofgrowthinglobaloildemand:however,trucks,aviation,shipping&petrochemicalskeepoilonarisingtrend
Electriccarsarehelpingtotransformenergyuseforpassengercars,slowingthepaceofgrowthinglobaloildemand: however,trucks,aviation,shipping&petrochemicalskeepoilonarisingtrend
Electriccarsarehelpingtotransformenergyuseforpassengercars,slowingthepaceofgrowthinglobaloildemand:however,trucks,aviation,shipping&petrochemicalskeepoilonarisingtrend
EVs are on the way, but oil demand still keeps rising
Electriccarfleet
100
200
300
2016 2025 2040
Millioncars Othercountries
UnitedStatesIndiaEuropeanUnionChina
PassengercarsOthersectors
Changeinglobaloildemand
4
8
12
16
Petrochemicals
Aviationandshipping
Trucks
mb/d
- 42016-2040
0
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25
30
35
Shale makes US the undisputed leader for oil & gas
OilandgasproductionintheUnitedStates
TheUSisalreadyswitchingtobecomeanetexporterofgas&becomesanetexporterofoilinthe2020s,helpedalsobythedemand-sideimpactoffuelefficiency&fuelswitching
5
10
15
20
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
mboe/d ShaleoilShalegasOtherunconventionalsConventional oil&gas
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706bcmin2016
Globalgastrade
Asia’sgrowinggasimportrequirementsarelargelymetbyLNG,withexportsfromtheUSacceleratingashifttowardsamoreflexible,liquidglobalmarket
LNG ushers in a new global gas order
GasexportersGasimporters
39%shippedbyLNG
1230bcmin2040
59%shippedbyLNG
AustraliaRussia&Caspian
MiddleEast
Other
Africa
US&Canada
AustraliaRussia&Caspian
MiddleEast Other
AfricaUS&Canada
Asia37%
Europe52%
Other
Asia60%
Europe35%
OtherOther Asia
China
Japan&Korea
Japan&Korea
China
Other Asia
Europe
Europe
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A new strategy for energy & sustainable development
Sustainable Development
Scenario
TheSustainableDevelopmentScenarioreducesCO2 emissionsinlinewiththeobjectivesoftheParisAgreement,whilealsotacklingairpollutionandachievinguniversalenergyaccess
NewPoliciesScenario
SustainableDevelopmentScenario
GlobalCO2 emissionsbyscenario
10
20
30
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040Gt
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Stronger policies for a more sustainable world
580bcmadditionalgasdemand
2timesmoreefficientthantoday
3250GWglobal solarPVcapacity
875millionelectric
vehicles
Only15%additionalinvestmentisrequiredto2040toachievetheSustainableDevelopmentScenario,withtwo-thirdsofenergysupply investmentgoingtoelectricitygeneration&networks
TheSustainableDevelopmentScenarioin2040
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Conclusions
n Theoil&gasresurgenceoftheUnitedStatesisshakinguptheestablishedorder,withmajorimplicationsformarkets,tradeflows,investment&energysecurity
n Theversatilityofnaturalgasmeansthatitiswellplacedtogrow,butitcannotaffordpricespikesoruncertaintyovermethaneleaks
n China’scontinuestoshapeglobaltrends,butinnewwaysasits“energyrevolution”drivescostreductionsforawiderangeofcleanenergytechnologies
n Ourstrategyforsustainableenergyshowsthatconcertedactiontoaddressclimatechangeisfullycompatiblewithglobalgoalsonuniversalaccess&airquality
n Electrification&digitalisationarethefutureformanypartsoftheglobalenergysystem,creatingnewopportunitiesbutalsorisksthatpolicymakershavetoaddress
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