LOGO 2010 to 2011 The Great Recession is Over The Great Recession is Over But We Dont Feel Better...
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LOGO 2010 to 2011 Real Estate Market Trends
Transcript of LOGO 2010 to 2011 The Great Recession is Over The Great Recession is Over But We Dont Feel Better...
LOGO
2010 to 2011
Real Estate Market Trends
The Great Recession is Over
But We Don’t Feel Better
Source: University of Michigan
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110
20
40
60
80
100
120
Consumer Sentiment
Index:
1966Q
1 =
100
Why Don’t we Feel Better?
14 million Unemployed
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Unemployment Rate
U.S. Richmond
Less than 5 weeks;
20.4%
5 to 14 weeks; 21.2%
15 to 26 weeks; 14.1%
27 or more weeks; 44.3%
Length of Unem-ployment (U.S.)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Distressed Property Sales Still High
Nov
Jan
200
9Mar
May Ju
lSe
pNov
Jan
20
09 Mar
May Ju
lSe
pNov
Jan
20
10 Mar
May Ju
l0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Foreclosed Short-sale
pe
rce
nt
of
exis
tin
g h
om
e s
ale
s
Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Price Declines Typical Across the State
Source: Virginia Association of REALTORS®
Year Units Sold Avg List Price Avg Sold Price2004: 18,944 $208,186 $206,7202005: 20,043 $241,420 $240,0412006: 18,543 $268,591 $265,8092007: 15,794 $280,034 $274,7762008: 11,005 $277,171 $268,0082009: 11,316 $268,806 $232,8302010: 10,750 $245,388 $228,056
2011 (YTD – September 30, 2011):
8,371 $244,638$218,119
Central Virginia Regional MLS
Single Family Residential Market
A Metro Richmond Comparison
Single Family Residential Market - 2011
Area Units Sold Avg LP Avg SP (%Chng)Chesterfield 2,518 $244,619 $227,404 (-5.31%)Hanover: 665 $291,098 $256,129 (-4.50%)Henrico: 1,978 $245,735 $231,412 (-8.63%)Richmond: 1,396 $203,144 $202,066 (-0.83%)
2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011
(%Chng) compared to same period 2010
Data Collected October 20, 2011
What’s Selling…
…in 2011?
Area (% Sold under): $200,000 $300,000$400,000Chesterfield 52.78% 78.16%
90.59%Hanover: 36.98% 71.11%
91.32%Henrico: 55.46% 77.40%
87.56%Richmond: 62.89% 80.23%
88.19%
CVR MLS Region: 57.45% 79.69%
89.91%
Cumulative 2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011
Data Collected October 20, 2011
Residential Condominium Market Changes:
2010-2011 - YTD
CVR MLS Region:Sold Units YTD: +4.36% Avg Sold Price YTD:
+4.00%
Chesterfield:Sold Units YTD: +8.37% Avg Sold Price YTD: -
13.74%
Henrico:Sold Units YTD: +5.47% Avg Sold Price YTD: -
0.50%
Richmond City:Sold Units YTD: -12.75% Avg Sold Price YTD: -
3.86%
Hanover: (Limited # units)
Sold Units YTD: +80% (30 units to 54 units)Avg Sold Price YTD: +0.71%
2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011
(%Chng) compared to same period 2010
Data Collected October 21, 2011
County of Chesterfield – City of Richmond
October 2010 through September 2011
R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011
Inventory and AbsorptionSingle-Family Residential
Data Collected October 25, 2011
County of Henrico – County of Hanover
October 2010 through September 2011
R E Stats Inc. - *Active Inventory as of October 25, 2011
Inventory and AbsorptionSingle-Family Residential
Data Collected October 25, 2011
2010-2011: YTD
The Direction We’re Heading
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd QuarterPending Units -5.122% +0.971% +2.30%
Sold Units +11.789% -4.358% +3.40%
Average Sold Price -8.33% -5.13% -4.80%
CVR MLS Region – Single Family
2011 Year-to-Date: September 30, 2011
(%Chng) compared to same period 2010
Thru Thru
Economic Outlook
Tomorrow will Look A lot Like Today
Paying down debt takes time No quick fix Recoveries after financial crises take much longer
Consumers are saving more, but that’s not good in the short-run
Firms reluctant to hire No need for more workers Can’t find workers with the right skills
In the next 12-24 months, expect Moderate growth and a stubbornly high unemployment
rates Volatile financial markets Little threat of inflation or rising interest rates
The Forecast
2009 2010 2011 2012U.S. Economy
GDP (% chg) -3.5 3.0 1.6 2.3
Payrolls (% chg) -4.4 -0.7 1.0 1.3
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.7
Inflation (%) -0.3 1.6 3.4 3.6
10-year Treasury (%) 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.8
30-year FRM (%) 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.8
Housing Market
Housing Starts 554,000 585,000 560,000 632,000
Existing Home Sales 5,156,000 4,907,000 4,941,000 5,153,000
Existing Home Prices (% chg) -12.9 0.2 -3.9 2.9
New Home Sales 376,000 322,000 303,000 380,000
New Home Prices (% chg) -6.6 2.0 2.1 3.5
Source: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® October 2011 Forecast
The Future…Continued Uncertainty
Shadow Inventory… How Much is Still Out There?
When Will Prices Hit Bottom and Bounce?
What’s Up in Washington? Too tight financing requirements, especially for Condo
Market, Investors. GSE Reform. MID… Eliminated or Revised come 2013. QRM… The End for 30 Year Mortgages?
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs… and Consumer Confidence.
Recovery… It Needs to FEEL Like Recovery.
