Logistic Regression Model

238
 Objective Inclusions Timeframe Development Population Va lidation Population Default Denition Exclusions Sample Development Validation Model equation  Parameter Intercept Var% Var& Var' Var( Var) Var* Var+ Var,

description

Procedure to develop a Logistic Regression Model.

Transcript of Logistic Regression Model

SAS Output

SummaryObjectiveTo score the customers based on their behaviour

InclusionsNo prior bureau information

TimeframeObservation window(s)Development PopulationValidation Population

Default DefinitionExclusions1234

SampleDefault rateKSCapture rate in 1st decileCapture rate in 2nd decileDevelopmentValidation

Model equationAssociation of Predicted Probabilities and Observed ResponsesAnalysis of Maximum Likelihood EstimatesPercent ConcordantSomers' DParameterEstimatePr>ChiSqDefinitionPercent DiscordantGammaPercent TiedTau-aInterceptPairscVar1Var2Var3Var4Var5Var6Var7Var8

1_MIS reportBusiness Segmentation1# AccountsMinimum10th Pctl25th Pctl50th Pctl75th Pctl90th Pctl95th Pctl99th PctlMaximumMeanSum

Total%Business Segment2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segment2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

TotalTotalERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!ERROR:#DIV/0!0Business Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

Business Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

Business Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

Business Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

Business Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3TotalBusiness Segmentation2EligibileDefault Definition1Default Definition2Default Definition3Total

2_MOM SummaryObservation DateEligibilityDefault%DefaultEiligible (Amount)Default (Amount)Default Amout %Disbursed amt of FC loans(Cr)FC % amt of disb

TotalFactorEligibilityDefault%DefaultEiligible (Amount)Default (Amount)Default Amout %Disbursed amt of FC loans(Cr)FC % amt of disb2096.8%8287.1%13972.9%Total2420.0%FactorEligibilityDefault%DefaultEiligible (Amount)Default (Amount)Default Amout %Disbursed amt of FC loans(Cr)FC % amt of disb= -999 and = 0 and = 1 and = 2 and = 3 and = 4 and = -999 and = 0 and = 1 and = 2 and = -999 and = 0 and = 1 and = 2 and = 3 and = -999 and = 0 and = 1 and = 2 and =0 and pl_amt_bfl_lv < = 0 then pl_amt_bfl_lv_WoE = -0.00953082;219pl_amt_bfl_lv1500047952736863661250.68%1.227516150.00390.01310.01340.0116 if pl_amt_bfl_lv >=15000 then pl_amt_bfl_lv_WoE = 1.22751615;39pl_cnt_bfl_lv0027663427027563592.30%-0.009530820.99610.98690.98660.0001 if pl_cnt_bfl_lv >=0 and pl_cnt_bfl_lv < = 0 then pl_cnt_bfl_lv_WoE = -0.00953082;419pl_cnt_bfl_lv1336863661250.68%1.227516150.00390.01310.01340.0116 if pl_cnt_bfl_lv >=1 < = 3 then pl_cnt_bfl_lv_WoE = 1.22751615;58pl_amt_bfl0025115024521859322.36%-0.037313460.92920.89590.89520.0013 if pl_amt_bfl >=0 and pl_amt_bfl < = 0 then pl_amt_bfl_WoE = -0.03731346;617pl_amt_bfl8000190501091108290.83%1.030242240.00140.00390.00390.0026 if pl_amt_bfl >0 and pl_amt_bfl < = 19052 then pl_amt_bfl_WoE = 1.03024224;718pl_amt_bfl190524600014064138901741.24%0.620769490.02730.05020.05070.0146 if pl_amt_bfl >19052 and pl_amt_bfl < = 46005 then pl_amt_bfl_WoE = 0.62076949;819pl_amt_bfl4600591446914015137462691.92%0.174692130.04210.050.05020.0014 if pl_amt_bfl >= then pl_amt_bfl_WoE = 0.17469213;98pl_cnt_bfl0025115024521859322.36%-0.037313460.92920.89590.89520.0013 if pl_cnt_bfl >=0 and pl_cnt_bfl < = 0 then pl_cnt_bfl_WoE = -0.03731346;1018pl_cnt_bfl1125631252323991.56%0.387807250.06250.09140.09210.0115 if pl_cnt_bfl >=1 and pl_cnt_bfl < = 1 then pl_cnt_bfl_WoE = 0.38780725;1119pl_cnt_bfl2735393486531.50%0.427118670.00830.01260.01270.0019 if pl_cnt_bfl >=27 then pl_cnt_bfl_WoE = 0.42711867;

13_Bucketing

1Var1% Attrition% TotalZero2.1%1%One2.6%27%More than One2.3%45%No Hit1.9%26%remove2Var2% Attrition%TotalZero2.2%58%At least one3.2%16%No Hit1.9%26%yes

14_CorrelationCORRELATION OF FINAL 17 NUMERIC VARIABLESVariables123456789101112131415161714.88%10.37%15.07%6.12%2.29%-1.67%-0.82%9.09%23.20%61.18%13.06%12.45%9.32%11.48%-9.46%4.06%24.88%29.39%86.71%96.61%28.92%-0.98%-4.71%46.22%33.15%30.57%11.32%46.68%22.08%28.55%0.71%17.96%310.37%29.39%44.12%30.15%29.47%-2.05%-19.59%53.42%46.35%32.38%11.30%18.73%21.85%24.66%9.87%37.73%415.07%86.71%44.12%88.13%29.98%-0.71%-11.76%56.42%74.09%44.42%14.59%42.72%24.44%30.41%-3.62%16.72%56.12%96.61%30.15%88.13%28.97%-1.07%-3.41%46.56%35.80%31.42%11.49%45.31%21.59%28.19%0.29%17.90%62.29%28.92%29.47%29.98%28.97%-2.57%-4.98%9.25%16.97%32.92%43.38%30.41%33.43%40.82%9.71%81.42%7-1.67%-0.98%-2.05%-0.71%-1.07%-2.57%5.99%-0.94%-0.03%-4.07%4.51%-0.98%-3.59%-4.37%-9.07%-5.39%8-0.82%-4.71%-19.59%-11.76%-3.41%-4.98%5.99%-7.46%-18.54%-3.05%42.72%-0.17%-0.02%0.92%-68.06%-26.00%99.09%46.22%53.42%56.42%46.56%9.25%-0.94%-7.46%46.04%30.34%5.36%23.43%20.30%23.57%-6.13%-0.32%1023.20%33.15%46.35%74.09%35.80%16.97%-0.03%-18.54%46.04%44.98%13.03%19.59%17.96%20.33%-8.01%7.90%1161.18%30.57%32.38%44.42%31.42%32.92%-4.07%-3.05%30.34%44.98%21.43%39.54%56.95%67.41%-5.07%24.28%1213.06%11.32%11.30%14.59%11.49%43.38%4.51%42.72%5.36%13.03%21.43%13.87%15.31%19.81%-64.14%6.51%1312.45%46.68%18.73%42.72%45.31%30.41%-0.98%-0.17%23.43%19.59%39.54%13.87%20.64%28.48%-2.46%16.23%149.32%22.08%21.85%24.44%21.59%33.43%-3.59%-0.02%20.30%17.96%56.95%15.31%20.64%79.80%-0.80%22.73%1511.48%28.55%24.66%30.41%28.19%40.82%-4.37%0.92%23.57%20.33%67.41%19.81%28.48%79.80%-1.34%28.26%16-9.46%0.71%9.87%-3.62%0.29%9.71%-9.07%-68.06%-6.13%-8.01%-5.07%-64.14%-2.46%-0.80%-1.34%43.25%174.06%17.96%37.73%16.72%17.90%81.42%-5.39%-26.00%-0.32%7.90%24.28%6.51%16.23%22.73%28.26%43.25%

CORRELATION FINAL 18 WOE VARIABLES12345678910111213141516171815.94%25.94%-15.24%6.59%2.22%-1.18%-1.51%3.25%-13.59%46.67%0.34%56.80%-7.50%2.90%4.51%2.00%-9.86%25.94%11.19%56.17%67.14%16.27%-0.74%2.75%4.10%47.29%10.37%0.79%12.92%5.67%46.78%15.79%22.81%2.10%325.94%11.19%-8.14%11.38%1.03%-1.45%-17.84%3.69%-5.08%54.45%2.95%24.21%4.40%6.77%10.93%12.55%-9.09%4-15.24%56.17%-8.14%79.54%9.51%0.10%34.48%7.33%90.64%-31.46%1.09%11.67%8.90%44.03%44.60%41.69%7.54%56.59%67.14%11.38%79.54%12.49%-1.77%32.86%6.40%68.66%4.21%1.57%26.25%0.85%47.27%51.40%44.90%-4.51%62.22%16.27%1.03%9.51%12.49%1.96%2.19%0.88%7.56%2.34%0.72%2.92%-1.60%8.25%2.74%2.87%-0.77%7-1.18%-0.74%-1.45%0.10%-1.77%1.96%6.72%-0.20%-0.09%-3.88%5.36%-2.71%10.35%-0.81%-3.89%-4.58%13.90%8-1.51%2.75%-17.84%34.48%32.86%2.19%6.72%1.85%31.84%-20.25%1.69%7.84%25.30%16.10%29.07%19.97%49.82%93.25%4.10%3.69%7.33%6.40%0.88%-0.20%1.85%8.81%3.24%8.86%3.71%-3.86%0.84%12.19%13.26%-3.53%10-13.59%47.29%-5.08%90.64%68.66%7.56%-0.09%31.84%8.81%-28.45%1.72%11.54%7.38%38.31%43.05%41.67%7.36%1146.67%10.37%54.45%-31.46%4.21%2.34%-3.88%-20.25%3.24%-28.45%0.53%36.05%-12.85%1.77%3.01%4.47%-21.38%120.34%0.79%2.95%1.09%1.57%0.72%5.36%1.69%8.86%1.72%0.53%2.53%3.71%0.91%9.67%11.05%0.78%1356.80%12.92%24.21%11.67%26.25%2.92%-2.71%7.84%3.71%11.54%36.05%2.53%-1.88%18.25%31.05%28.36%-7.87%14-7.50%5.67%4.40%8.90%0.85%-1.60%10.35%25.30%-3.86%7.38%-12.85%3.71%-1.88%11.72%2.47%6.08%63.81%152.90%46.78%6.77%44.03%47.27%8.25%-0.81%16.10%0.84%38.31%1.77%0.91%18.25%11.72%31.00%37.90%5.96%164.51%15.79%10.93%44.60%51.40%2.74%-3.89%29.07%12.19%43.05%3.01%9.67%31.05%2.47%31.00%74.24%-5.13%172.00%22.81%12.55%41.69%44.90%2.87%-4.58%19.97%13.26%41.67%4.47%11.05%28.36%6.08%37.90%74.24%-3.51%18-9.86%2.10%-9.09%7.54%-4.51%-0.77%13.90%49.82%-3.53%7.36%-21.38%0.78%-7.87%63.81%5.96%-5.13%-3.51%

15_Cross TabTOTALVar2Var2Var1Var1ABTotalAChiSq303.34168FSquaresSquareModel19561.2237829.538091458.33|t|VarianceEstimateErrorInflationIntercept10.056890.00033968167.47