Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?
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Transcript of Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?
Lock In and Vaporware: Lock In and Vaporware: What’s the Connection?What’s the Connection?
Erica GierkeErica Gierke
Advisors: Chris Fernandes Advisors: Chris Fernandes and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)and Stephen Schmidt (Eco)
AgendaAgenda Economic problems of lock in and Economic problems of lock in and
vaporwarevaporware
Experimental StructureExperimental Structure
ResultsResults
ConclusionConclusion
What is Lock In?What is Lock In?
Why Does It Matter?Why Does It Matter? Adopting standards makes Adopting standards makes
improvement hardimprovement hard
Standards are good, static standards Standards are good, static standards are badare bad
Contributing FactorsContributing Factors•CompatibilityCompatibility
•Network ExternalitiesNetwork Externalities
•Example:Example:•How useful is an instant How useful is an instant messenger that no one else messenger that no one else uses?uses?
PreannouncementsPreannouncements• Many technology products are Many technology products are
preannouncedpreannounced
• Give insight into future products Give insight into future products availableavailable
• Sometimes truthful, sometimes notSometimes truthful, sometimes not
VaporwareVaporware• A deliberate false product A deliberate false product
announcementannouncement
• Can influence other producers and Can influence other producers and consumersconsumers
• Problem- false announcements can Problem- false announcements can delay technology even moredelay technology even more
How does vaporware hurt?How does vaporware hurt?
Hypothesis:Hypothesis:
Vaporware Vaporware announcements prolong announcements prolong lock inlock in
The Experimental ProgramThe Experimental ProgramProducers Consumers
Database Backend
The ExperimentThe Experiment
A1A1
A2A2 B2B2
$$$
The Producer’s InterfaceThe Producer’s Interface
ProducerStart
Production Page
Update Database/ Production Feedback
Vaporware Announcement
SubmitAnnouncement/ Announcement
Feedback
ProducerWait
ProducerFeedback
The Consumer’s InterfaceThe Consumer’s Interface
ConsumerStart
ConsumerWait
ConsumerUpdate/
Purchase Feedback
ConsumerFeedback
ConsumerPurchase
DataData Collected data over 4 sessionsCollected data over 4 sessions
Two 4 round and two 8 round Two 4 round and two 8 round sessionssessions
Most interesting data from 8 round Most interesting data from 8 round sessionssessions
DataDataBest Progress
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress
Inefficient Progression
A B C D E F G H I
Best Progress For Producers
Session 3- ProducersSession 3- ProducersSession 3
1
234
56789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
Session 4- ProducersSession 4- ProducersSession 4
123456789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel Best Progress
1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
Vaporware AnnouncementsVaporware Announcements Session three, one announcementSession three, one announcement
Session four, one producer Session four, one producer announced most roundsannounced most rounds
Session 3- AnnouncementsSession 3- AnnouncementsSession 3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel
Best Progress1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
Session 4- AnnouncementsSession 4- AnnouncementsSession 4
123456789
10
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Technology Type
Tech
nolo
gy L
evel Best Progress
1P2P3P4P
A B C D E F G H I
ConclusionConclusion Vaporware impedes progressVaporware impedes progress
Sessions with less announcements Sessions with less announcements progressed furtherprogressed further
Questions?Questions?