Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs
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Transcript of Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs
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Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs
Ir. J.W. Jaap van Till, Professor Emeritus Network Infrastructures and Social Media
Chief Scientist, Tildro Research, NL, Europe
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com
Lecture 2 : in Australia for the OSDC2014
Monday, November 3, 2014. Varsity Lakes (Wotso), Silicon Beach Grou
Sponsor: City of GOLDCOAST.
- How to construct Weavelet Lenses for collaboration and P2P Connectivism -
28 pages
30 minutes + 15 min Q&A
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
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Abstract:
by Ir. Jaap van Till, prof. emeritus telecom infrastructures and social media• Steps beyond the Richard Florida approach to attract creative class talent to cities• to boost the Local Tech Economy. There is an urgent demand among the young and
bright for a positive perspective towards the future.
• Broadband Trends and Future Proof network architectures: Exponential Growth, Intermediaries, disruptive innovations, learning curves, effects on organizations, Apps and Clouds, Nokia vs Apple and other examples.
• What will come after the worldwide economic recession; a Golden Age: How, what and who. P2P cooperation, flocks and swarms, ICT as the General Purpose Technology. Orthogonal Engineers.
• Network Age Civil Society, brain patterns, orthogonal transforms & correlation, holograms and the Global Brain under construction.
• Energy, Information, Ideas (brainwaves) must FLOW to create synergy and wealth
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . com
Local Tech Economy, Cooperation, Broadband, Disruptive Technologies, Wealth and Jobs
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6.5 billion CellphSmartphonesTablets
3 billion internetaccess & growing
Heavy USE !!!COOPERATION
(CC) 2014 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
CORRIDORIA: New transcontinental backbone for EurAsia’s Chain of booming city areas & P2P communities
• Decline and Success of Cities: Richard Florida found
Talent & ICT Technology & Tolerance
to be the drivers for prosperity [1]
The “Creative Class” flock to those magnet city centres where value is created by combinations of skills and specialists who co-create. Or they leave.
But self-centeredness is a dead end. For people and cities
the quality of their External Connections is vital.
Een ‘Kanteling in het denken’ is noodzakelijk om uit de recessie te komen.
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(CC) 2014 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
CORRIDORIA: New transcontinental backbone for EurAsia’s Chain of booming city areas & P2P communities
Lessons for Post-Industrial Economies: How Wealth and jobs are created
• Douglass North, Nobel Prize Economy 1993
Wealth is created by:
A. A number of very egalitarian institutions that work well:
education, infrastructure building, finance for ventures,
law, etc.
B. Very low micro transaction costs: trust in promised work.
• Joel Mokyr : The Gifts of Athena- Historical Origins of the Knowledge Society-
Combinations (duo’s) of Enterpreneurs with a long time vision &
super skilled crafsmen (Example : Rolls-Royce, Hewlett-Packard)
• JvTill : Daring : Don’t ask permission, just DO + friends
Black Swans ! Audacity
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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation"
Two types of Innovation & Improvement
Performance / Price
Time
Sustained Innovation
Disruptive Innovation
DIY: no permission needed
Source: Prof Ward Christensen. MIT
(CC) 2012 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
De Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid 8
DEPLOYMENTINSTALLATION
We are here
Creative destruction
Learning the newunlearning the old
A great market experiment
Led byfinancialcapital
Ending in a stock marketcrash
INSTALLATION
“Creative construction”
Led byproduction capital
Applying the paradigmto innovate
across all sectorsand to spread
the social benefitsmore widely
Until maturityand exhaustion
DEPLOYMENT
???2O - 30 years2O - 30 years
Majortechnology
bubble
big-bang Nextbig-bang
Time
Deg
ree
of d
iffus
ion
of
the
ne
w t
echn
olog
ical
po
ten
tial
The first half sets up the infrastructure and lets the markets pick the winnersthe second half reaps the full economic and social potential
EACH TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION PROPAGATES IN TWO DIFFERENT PERIODS
TurningPoint
Unce
rtain
ty, in
stitu
tiona
l rec
ompo
sitio
n a
nd r
ole
shift
Carlota Perez [11-13]
(CC) 2012 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
De Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid 9
(CC) 2012 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
De Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid 10
THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM ( Perez [12] A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 1)
CONVENTIONAL COMMON SENSE NEW EFFICIENCY PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES
COMMAND AND CONTROL
Centralized command Vertical control Cascade of supervisory levels "Management knows best"
Central goal-setting and coordination Local autonomy/Horizontal self-control Self-assessing/self-improving units Participatory decision-making
STRUCTURE AND GROWTH Stable pyramid, growing in height and
complexity as it expands Flat, flexible network of very agile units Remains flat as it expands
PARTS AND LINKS Clear vertical links
Separate, specialized functional departments
Interactive, cooperative links between functions, along each product line
STYLE OFOPERATION
Optimized smooth running organizations Standard routines and procedures "There is one best way" Definition of individual tasks Single function specialization Single top-down line of command Single bottom-up information flow
Continuous learning and improvement Flexible system/Adaptable procedures "A better way can always be found" Definition of group tasks Multi-skilled personnel/Ad hoc teams Widespread delegation of decision making Multiple horizontal and vertical flows
PERSONNEL AND TRAINING Labor as variable cost
Market provides trained personnel People to fit the fixed posts Discipline as main quality
Labor as human capital Much in-house training and retraining Variable posts/Adaptable people Initiative/collaboration/motivation
(CC) 2012 vantill (at) gmail (dot) com
De Lof der Ongehoorzaamheid 11
THE NEW vs. THE TRADITIONAL PARADIGM (Perez [12])A RADICAL AND DIFFICULT SHIFT IN MANAGERIAL COMMON SENSE (part 2)
EQUIPMENT AND INVESTMENT Dedicated equipment
One optimum plant size for each product Each plant anticipates demand growth Strive for economies of scale for mass production
Adaptable/programmable/flexible equipment Many efficient sizes/Optimum relative Organic growth closely following demand Choice or combination of economies of scale, scope or specialization
PRODUCTION PROGRAMMING Keep production rhythm; Use inventory to
accommodate variation in demand. Produce for stock; shed labor in slac
Adapt rhythm to variation in demand Minimize response time ("Just-in-time") Use slack for maintenance and training
PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT A specific measure for each department
(purchasing, production, marketing, etc.) ercent tolerance on quality and rejects
Total productivity measured along the whole chain for each product line Strive for zero defects and zero rejects
SUPPLIERS, CLIENTS AND COMPETITORS
Separation from the outside world:Foster price competition among suppliers Make standard products for mass customers Arms length oligopoly with competitors The firm as a closed system
Strong interaction with outside world:Collaborative links with suppliers, with customers and, in some cases, with competitors (Basic R&D for instance) The firm as an open system
Prof. Carlota Perez shows us the way out of the crises ! General Purpose Technolgy (GPT): Electro / mechanical/ chemical ICT / Network Technology
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g
The Two Phases of Lightning
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What may the future look like : Fractal repetition of the Internet paradigm, JvT 2000
(Planet)
InterNet I
corporate intraNetE-commerce
LANOffice E-business, I-Org II
Home III
Person IV
computers (mobile) devicessingle useM2M: IoT
BluetoothSMSZigBee..
N
3G UMTS4G LTE Wi-FioffloadingIEEE 802.11ac, ah, ad
N
MACROCELLS
FEMTOCELLS & FttX
SMALLCELLS+ hotspots
METROCELLStrainst, airport, Campus
Field enclosed in room + POF
TV sets, IoThings
Diversity of circumstances and scales + interconnected ( next: The Internet of Things)[Internet, + energy + goods] as a lifeform: “The Weave” MODEL(weavelets are fractal too)
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation"
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail
• Subsea Optical Fiber Cables , Example: PT AJN SOLUSINDO ( Par Parkiyatno )• Optical Fiber long distance backbones: DWDM, Lambda’s, Lightpaths switches (“Netherlight” part of NREN SURFnet)• Internet Exchanges IX’s (AMST-IX, NDIX)- level 2 Ethernet, VLANs• Gigabit/s FTTX (busin/home/farm) – symmetric• GPON TWDM-PON (Google, ALU + Vodaphone)• LTE 4G & Wi-Fi IEEE 802.11 ac, ah, ad, …. Small Cells ( Glass & Wireless !! )• SIMs from Apple? Authentication (Example EduRoam)• IoThings plastic fiber & radio over fiber ROF 24 Ghz, 60 GHz within room• WhatsApp, Skype, Netflix, Youtube, iTunes (unbundling)
Functions DIS-Intermediated
Computers Computers
Tablet SmartphoneLaptop
DatacentersCloud ProviderPrivate Cloud
APPs Computer backplane /Bus1 – 10 Gbps Optic fibers FttX
Obstacles ?
Ideas about ideas, some observations about propagation, reformation and transitions. 16
Telephony with fixed line Cellphone with SkypeNokia GSM Cellphone iPhone Smartphone, Samsung, LGBing Google SearchTexting (SMS) WhatsAppTV channels Youtube, DelayTV, NetflixTaxi companies UberHotelrooms AirBNBProduction Stores Ebay, Marktplaats, AlibabaAirlines Reservation systems + services
• key: APP services & P2P sharing community who contribute and swap
• SHARING = the NEW HAVING, copying does not deminish value • Primary process from insides to outside• Others try to copy the successful after ‘takeoff’? No way: faster improvements• Learning from users, extends to problem solving, P2P aid (nabuur.com)• Open Source Software, Open source research, Open source education • Scarce Resource --- Abundant resource
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
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Mark Cooper The U-Turn !! Inside-out and Outside-in
OPEN COOPERATIVE
COMMONS like Frequency bands
What is behind OPEN SOURCE Development
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Mark Cooper : Examples
SHARING IS THE NEW HAVING !!! (jaap van Till)Abundance !!!
Scarce ResourcesMust be dished out equalyby govt
Peer-to-Peer commons P2P
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How do “P2P commons” grow For fundamentals see P2PFoundation.net
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail Sharks and Dolphins?
The users put in more than they take out (example: BitTorent)“The SUCCESS of the COMMONS”, using it does not diminish its valueMust scale up exponentialy (constant doubling time) in ICT resources etc.
Google SearchSkypeYoutubeInstaGramAlibaba
Companies learn fastAttract the talentedExperiments can failImprovements updates
(CC) 2010 vantill (at) gmail.com
Werken aan Goede Verbindingen = de Motor om uit de crises te komen 21
The FORCE of COOPERATION by P2Peerialists
DRIVERS BEHIND the IMPACT OF INTERNET & TELECOM : Networking Effects
1. Broadcasting of info: Value ~ grows with number of listeners, viewers N Sarnoff’s Law (value for the broadcaster/ advertiser/ spindoctor) 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + ……….(N) 2. Communication V ~ N2 Metcalfe’s Law N + N + N + N + N ……….(N) V~ N Log N Odlyzko -Tilly’s Law 3. Group Membership V ~ 2N Reed’s Law 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 ……….(N) (+ Multi Tribe Membership by networking )
4. Connected people working together V ~ N ! Van Till’s Law of Synthecracy Networking
Upper bound of possible combinations of contributions N ! = N * N-1 * N-2 * …..* 2 * 1 (N)
Total space of cooperation = number of configurations in time/space when each unique and diverse individual contributes and shares resources and knowledge. [14]
Examples: teams, communities of practice, multiuser games, simulation Grids, virtual labs Mashup Team, Flock, Herd, Evolution by flexible learning and Group Selection [9,10]
Cooperative N
ET
WO
RK
can scale ! Synergy
Different
angles!
The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL, by Synthesis
< distance >
Max. Size. Does not scale
Issues:
- Simple- Linear- Static
Issues:
- Complex- Non linear- Dynamic
Virtual L
ens
How patterns???????
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
Earlier publication: http://www.vantill.dds.nl/democracy.htmlhttp://www.vantill.dds.nl/synthecracy.pdf
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The Telescope Metaphor: a better picture for ALL by network sharing of contributions on Internet, social networks Different angles ! Unique contribution
< distance > --------> Resolution, pattern contrast
< number of telescopic sensors> ---> pattern definition HDR
Array telescopes (LOFAR)Grid IT CAN SCALE UP !!Clusters
CORRELATION N factorial Combinations
Pattern Recognition and matching NETWORK “Network Lenses” ??
technology and groups of humansIt can coordinate, inform, self organize
P2P collaboration, creating valueCollective intelligence ??
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
HDR = High Dynamic Range in image
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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation• OPEN for wide diversity. for sudden changes, unexpected surprises : LERNEN• ORTHOGONALISE, extract “orthogonals” from the Chaos, which are agnostic to
other layers/ parameters/ infrastructures/ Examples: containers, IP datapackets.
This allows and absorbs changes in complex ecosystems.• Correlate and match. Social Networking! Match with learned patterns.• And interconnect Tribes (clusters with strong ties) by “weak link” super networkers
and LERNgroups (same Karass) who have trusted contributors & credibility in
many tribes. These links create stability and synergy.
This is what happens in Twitter, by Bloggers, G+ lacks this?• Remove obstacles in complex, non lin, dynamic systems (Liebig Law)• Maintain freedom to explore, experiment, express and create• Form FAST LEARNING problem solving Teams with a P2P Commons
in which the best people with unique and proven skills, crafts and knowledge
(the Orthogonals) contribute, cooperate and learn together : WEAVELETS
• Smart Connected Cities (Richard Florida statistics about the Creative Class), including 21 subsystems (energy, food, etc) for Life Support [ James Grier Miller ] ; HK !?
• Next step: strings of interconnected City Area’s including trade routes: Cascadia, Corridoria and then PlanetBrain.org (cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail
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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail
Are groups of people learning and creating in Weavelets / P2P Phyles our next evolutionary step?
Will huge clusters of fast evolving bacteria and/ or viruses outpace our medical R&D ?
We should learn from Nature !!!
• Flocks of birds, they look together outside the flock !!• Complex ecologies, link to DNA for storage and replication of learned lessons?• Evolutionary dynamics (Prof Martin A. Nowak: Supercooperators)
• How the brain may work, including within neurons and synapses : Weavelets??
• Experiment with new networked P2P enterprise organization structures, like Holacracy, where value and jobs are created• Experiment with new structures for Smart Connected Cities (book Susan Crawford)• Connect farms and small rural with optical fibers too
• Design and introduce new viral Social Media where people can flock and cooperate
• SUDDEN FLOW of Lightning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVXy-ZqqZ-g
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Examples of Successful Working Constructive Weavelets<Fiduciary trust & the Best Cratfswomen/men !>
• Flashmobs• Bitcoin• Collection and aggregation of pictures and videos after Boston Bombing• Wikipedia, Google, Facebook, Twitter, InstaGram, Alibaba• AmberAlertNederland.nl• Self organizing Phyles, commons and cooperatives (see P2PFoundation.net)• New Education: MOOC’s, “learning in the digital age”. Connectivism by George Siemens and Stephen Downes
(connecting the dots) see: Susan Bainbridge• Cascadia, Corridoria• Singularity.U University ventures, exponential enterprises• The Maker Movement (3D printers lasercutters, crafsmen, schoolchildren)• BuurtZorgNederland.com• AmsterdamSmartCity.com
• “ The Responsive City” –Engaging Communities Through Data Smart Governance-
Stephen Goldsmith and Susan Crawford (just out)
• Next Century Cities Launch Event (Oct 2014) Local Californian city govts that have built
their own Next Generation Networks (Optical Fiber infra FttH ). 3 hour video on Youtube
What do they have in common: nearly no hierachy, so without many layers of management
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail com
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Researchers, students, geeks and nerds : find your unique skill&craft, in which you excell, and which you can contribute in a fast learning team. You will be appreciated and LERNing.
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
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• ANNEXES
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"Broadband Trends and Positive Perspectives on P2P Cooperation and Wealth Creation
The Global Brain Metaphore• Will our Planet become conscious in about 2020? • Peter Russell described that for each evolutionary leap more than 10 ^ 10
(10 Bln) must be present and interconnected• Human foetus: first few months: braincells replicate by many millions
each day. Up to around 100 billion.• After x months suddenly the neurons start to make axons, near and far, and
synapse connections. • After birth the baby starts to learn fast and becomes conscious and
communicates with parents and fits to environment. Learning curves start.
• There are now about 7 billion people on this planet, of which 6.5 have cellphone connections and about 3.5 billion have smartphones and Internet connectivity. Is baby Gaia already kicking when young people flock ??
Are we engineers wiring Mother Gaia’s future Global Brain and will she
wake up? I hope to be still present when she does, around 2020?
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail . Com
Ideas about ideas, some observations about propagation, reformation and transitions. 32
Communicationnot rational
pioneers
Control, keep puremanage/ allocate
economic: scales up
standard: one is chosen as legitimate and enforced Other alternatives are suppressed
avant garde
pioneersExploreEXPERIMENTS
Time* Several paradigms at the same time, multiple learning curves. Try to synchronise on one stage !
• The present innovators are the future conservatives, obstacles resist change and innovation
Example: Expenditures on ICT in companies
Absorption of new ideas: Learning curves (discontinuous)
reformation
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What happens at the Transformed Plane? All of the information is available there (halfway the Weavelet) to
make spatial (3D) models, for handling Depth and Proportions, and temporal (time: 4D) models of movements etc. to act upon.
The patterns are distributed, stored and manipulated all over the Weavelet by multiple feedback loops in contact with the ecology around it. So collective and individual decisions and actions can be taken.
Physical evidence: In optics halfway behind the lens there is the FFT Transform plane. The image is fuzzy there, while on the Focal plane it is sharp. Jumping spiders have 4 distinct photoreceptor layers in their eyes, they can judge distance to jump by processing the difference between defocused and focused layers. http://www.livescience.com/18143-jumping-spider-unique-vision.html
(cc) 2014 vantill @ gmail
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New Organizational Paradigm : The Structure of a Weavelet Yes, it can scale up, self organize. Fast parallel pattern recognition (incomplete matching) Orthogonalisation. Correlation with learned patterns.
Distributed:Every Karass can:recommend,confirm, verify ANDnoticesignificantdifferencesdecide, act,combine, mix, createbend light,zoom in, focus, hasoverview,feed back
P2PConnectivityOPEN SynthesisValue creation
SynergyInnovation
Very resilient
ContributionsFractal unfolding repetition
DISTRIBUTEDTransparentEverybodycan seeeverything
PluriformDiverse
Functionsas ONEorganismGroup Collective Intelligence based on Cooley-Tuckey connections)
Distributed authority, can cope with Complexity and react fast.
(cc) 2013 vantill @ gmail com & sara @ behavioraleconomics . net
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OccupyFacing Sharks
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Summary
I wish you Good Connections !!!
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Emergent behaviour: Flocks, Swarms, Schools of fish.Teams in Fast Learning people in P2P Cooperation !!!