Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference Rawlings Miller, PhD
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Transcript of Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference Rawlings Miller, PhD
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Local Solutions: Northeast Climate Change Preparedness Conference
Rawlings Miller, PhD
May 19, 2014
Tools / Resources for Considering Climate Change Impacts on the
Built Environment
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Tools/Resources Challenge: Our systems are designed for a static environment –
yet moving forward, stationarity will not hold true
Processes to identify important pathways of climate impacts on the built environment
Resources for understanding infrastructure sensitivities to climate-related hazards
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General Framework for Climate Assessments
Exposure Sensitivity
Impact Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Criticality
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Impacts on the Built Environment
Identify which elements in the built environment may be susceptible to what hazards potentially affected by climate change
Match time horizons
Consider non-climate drivers
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Conceptualize the System
Sea level rise Changes in Storm Events
Storm Surge
ClimateDrivers
Hazards
Impacts
Changes in Precipitation
Drought
Increased Temperatures
Warmer Temps / Heat
Events
Power outages (if duration is longer than backup generators capable of supporting)
Switch failures
Fixed line network
Flooding of exchanges, manholes, and underground pits
Mobile line network
Higher High Tides
Soil moisture decrease the stability in structures/foundations
Large fluctuations in wet/dry spells may cause cracks in foundation
Periodic coastal flooding
Flooding of exchanges, manholes, and underground pits
Damage to infrastructure (transmission lines / towers)
Power outages
Potential loss of services
Lightening disruption
Increased Runoff / Heavy Precip. Changes in cloud
cover /Increase in solar radiation
Degrade cable coverings and lead to outages and service interruptions.
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Understanding Today’s ImpactsIdentify hazards of concern
Design standards Damage functions Early warning systems Impacts observed during/after past events Expert anecdotal evidence/understanding within the system Drawing from analysis conducted at similar municipalities Urban planning tools (zoning) Hazard susceptibility maps Old maps
“Quantify” the identified hazards
Local National Weather Service office – records of past events Newspaper clippings Discussions with engineers, operators, etc.
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Examples to Identify Thresholds/ Relationships
Pavement (design)
Flooding of a 1-story house w/out basement(Damage Function)
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Considering Future Impacts
Using the key thresholds/relationships, consider how the exposure to these thresholds/relationships may change in the future.
Where can I easily access future climate information?
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Impacts in the United States
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
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Melillo et al., 2014
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User-friendly Climate Data Portals
http://www.climatewizard.org/
http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal
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http://www.csc.noaa.gov/slr/viewer/#
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Example:
DOT’s Gulf Coast Project, Phase 2
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In Sum, Considering Future Impacts
Use the projections to consider how to the identified hazards/ indicators may change in the future
Also consider are the non-climate stressors that dampen or increase the vulnerability to the hazard
Consider the planning horizon / infrastructure lifetime
Actionable in light of uncertainty