Local Government Association of NSW Annual Conference 2011€¦ · KPMG has not sought to...

Local Government Association of NSW Annual Conference 2011

Local Councils’ Role in Envisioning a Better Way to Live in the 21st Century

Bernard Salt

24 October 2011

© 2011 KPMG, an Australian partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name, logo and "cutting through complexity" are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International Cooperative ("KPMG International"). Liability limited by a scheme approved under Professional Standards Legislation.

Disclaimer

These slides are not for commercial use or redistribution. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. KPMG have indicated within this presentation the sources of the information provided. KPMG has not sought to independently verify those sources unless otherwise noted within the presentation. No reliance should be placed on additional oral remarks provided during the presentation, unless these are confirmed in writing by KPMG. KPMG is under no obligation in any circumstance to update this presentation, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the presentation has been issued in final form. The findings in this presentation have been formed on the above basis. Forecasts are based on a number of assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertainties. Forecasts should not be regarded as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of KPMG or any other person that such forecasts will be met. Forecasts constitute judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements about market trends, which are based on current market conditions. Neither KPMG nor any member or employee of KPMG undertakes responsibility arising in any way from reliance placed by a third party on this presentation. Any reliance placed is that party’s sole responsibility. The presentation (and the accompanying slide pack) is provided solely for the benefit of the conference attendees and is not to be copied, quoted or referred to in whole or in part without KPMG’s prior written consent. KPMG accepts no responsibility to anyone other than the conference attendees for the information contained in this presentation.


Australians are on the move … to the coast

Losers Winners

Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1986 and 2010

Gladstone

Hervey Bay Sunshine Coast Gold Coast

Coffs Harbour Port Macquarie

Port Stephens

Narooma

Surf Coast Sorell

Victor Harbor

Augusta- Margaret River

Broome

Mackay

Cairns-Port Douglas

Bundaberg

Byron Bay

Denmark

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

TOWNSVILLE

DARWIN

PERTH

FIFO WEST FIFO EAST

FIFO CENTRAL


Out-migration from NSW has slowed as has overseas immigration … will these trends reverse within 3 years?

• Components of population growth in NSW between 1982 and 2010 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG

Natural increase Net overseas migration Net interstate migration

5.83m 6.49m 7.20m

9.89m @ 2050 3.17m @ 1950

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Ann

ual p

opul

atio

n gr

owth

NSW Malaise


The fastest growing parts of Sydney are no longer the edges but the middle and inner suburbs

4,500

2,300

2,900

1,900

2,000 2,700

2,200

2,200

2,200 2,200

June 2010: 4.575m 2007-2008: 74,000 2008-2009: 81,000 2009-2010: 76,000 or 1.7%


Blacktown-Nth 4,500 Ku-ring-gai 2,900 Canterbury 2,700 Blacktown-SW 2,300 C. Bay- Concord 2,200 Holroyd 2,200 Liverpool-East 2,200 Auburn 2,200 Sydney - Sth 2,100 Warringah 1,900


Growing Extra 2010 1. India 245,000 341,000 2. China 232,000 380,000 3. New Zealand 175,000 544,000 4. South Africa 75,000 156,000 5. Philippines 67,000 177,000

Contracting Loss 2010 1. Italy -26,000 216,000 2. Greece -7,000 127,000 3. Poland -7,000 58,000 4. Malta -4,000 49,000 5. Netherlands -3,000 89,000

• Most growth and loss by place of birth in Australia, 2000 - 2010

Australia is shifting from Mediterranean to Asian influences



Other tribes on the rise …

• Facebook …

• PUMCINS ….

• NETTELs …

• KIPPERS …

• LOMBARDs …


NSW local government must deliver services to surge points over the next decade


Mature adults • Crowded house • Investment property

• Net change in New South Wales population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2010 and 10 years to 2020

2000-10 2010-20

2000-2010: 753,000 or 6.5m – 7.1m 2010-2020: 804,000 or 7.1m – 7.9m

Young adults • Apartments • Affordable housing

Kids • Suburbia • Schools & sports

Retirees • Lifestyle • Community programs

- 20,000

- 10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

0 - 4 5 - 9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 - 69 70 - 74 75 - 79 80+


Lifestyle shifts has prompted demand for inner city living in Melbourne and Sydney

• Population June 2010 was 354,000 up 66,000 over 10 years and 7,000 over 12 months

Sydney

• Population June 2010 was 272,000 up 74,000 over 10 years and 6,000 over 12 months

Melbourne



0 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Increasing life expectancy is creating new stages of the lifecycle

Child Adolescence Lifestyle Old Retired 2011 82

Adult

Child Teen Old Adult 1971 71

Child Adult Old 1931 63

• Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia



Australia’s volunteering hotspots are located in small country towns … Sydney’s are located in middle-class suburbia

Proportion volunteers Australia


% volunteers • Jamestown SA 42 • Dimboola VIC 40 • Tathra NSW 37 • Longreach Qld 35 • Exmouth WA 34

• The Vines WA 13 • Melton VIC 13 • Kurri Kurri NSW 13 • Jimboomba Qld 16 • Maitland SA 17

% volunteers • Uni of Sydney 39 • Glenbrook 30 • Beecroft 30 • Pittwater 30 • Pymble 30

• Cabramatta 7 • Fairfield 8 • Auburn 8 • Bonnyrigg 8 • Belmore 8

Proportion volunteers Sydney


Australia is moving from baby boom to baby bust … we need either more tax or more tax payers

• Net growth in working age population (15-64) over 100 years in Australia based on 2008 outlook with different annual migration assumptions

Pop

ulat

ion

grow

th

1950 2050 2000


250,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050

Actual Proj-08 (70K migrant assumption) Proj-08 (180K migrant assumption)


There has been a structural shift in the Australian economy … less low-skilled work … more highly-skilled work

• Net change in total jobs in Australia over two successive three-year periods, August 2005 – August 2011


2005-2008 2008-2011

3 years Aug 2011 – up 501k (10.8m – 11.3m) Health

Less skills

Professionals

More skills

- 110,000

- 90,000

- 70,000

- 50,000

- 30,000

- 10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

Manufacturing

Transport, Retail, Other, Wholesale

Construction, Education

3 years Aug 2008 – up 853k (10.0m – 10.8m)


The transition of baby boomers into early retirement will create unique challenges

• Net growth in population (65+) over 100 years in Australia

130,000

1950 2050 2000

Pop

ulat

ion

grow

th

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000 120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

1950 1954 1958 1962 196 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050



Australia will benefit from rise of “The Dubai Effect”

New York Shanghai

Singapore

London

Hong Kong

Moscow

Dubai

Sydney


The GFC has prompted the rise of the ‘moral consumer’

Then 1997 - 2008

• Era of high consumerism … and of ‘corporate high-flyers’

• ‘Live for the moment’ … pay in the future

• Plasma TVs, McMansions, Manolo Blahnik shoes

• Easy credit … rising house prices

• Celebration of the individual … confidence in the future and in ourselves

Recession

Consumers driven by “Aspirationalism”

• Rise of the moral consumer … the new Wowserism … seeks value on internet

• Anti-drinking, smoking, speeding, gambling, junk-food (obesity) … concern about corporate excess

• Rise of Green, ethical & traditional values … celebrities

• Fear drives a retreat to the security of the herd, the tribe, the family, familiar brands?

Now 2009+

Consumers driven by a “New Morality”


Mosaic City

• Self-contained sub-region • Decentralise offices, retail, hospitals, universities • ‘Bolt on’ new sub-regions as required

Home

Work

CBD

Urban development could progress as a series of connected cells … leads to ‘Mosaic City’


• Percentage difference in the number of men and women in Australia and New Zealand by individual year in 2006

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74

Australia New Zealand

35

Man Drought

Boy Town

Widow World

27

35

58 65 Man Mountain M

ore

men

M

ore

wom

en

Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; Statistics New Zealand data; KPMG

The Great Australasian Man Drought … Stage 3A restrictions now apply

The Great Australasian Man Drought … Stage 3A restrictions now apply


Contact

Bernard Salt KPMG Australia +61 3 9288 5047 [email protected] www.bernardsalt.com.au twitter.com/bernardsalt linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt facebook.com/BernardSaltDemographer

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